Who are we taking with our first pick?

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Who's our first pick?

Bradley Chubb
0
No votes
Quenton Nelson
16
38%
Saquan Barkley
4
10%
Denzel Ward
5
12%
Minkah Fitzpatrick
4
10%
Derwin James
10
24%
Vita Vea
2
5%
Harold Landry
0
No votes
Marcus Davenport
0
No votes
Derrius Guice
0
No votes
Tremaine Edmunds
1
2%
Roquan Smith
0
No votes
Mike McGlinchey
0
No votes
Conor Williams
0
No votes
Other
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 42

Re: Who are we taking with our first pick

Postby MJW » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:47 am

Brazen331 wrote:It’s difficulr to find a recent mock draft that does not have us drafting James.


I don't remember one mock last year that had the Bears taking Trubisky, Few had the Chargers drafting Mike Williams, or the Bengals taking John Ross. Almost none had OJ Howard falling out of the top 18, or 3 QBs in the top 12, or Jonathan Allen out of the top ten.
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby mdb1958 » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:00 am

SK
what current OL do we wanna cut?..



We got 14 right now. Neither OT is any good at letting us run outside the tackles. Matter of fact I dont think Dotson has ever been a very good run blocker.


Ryan Jensen (2018-2021) C TB 26 4 $42,000,000 $10,500,000 $22,000,000 $22,000,000 52.38% 2022
J.R. Sweezy (2017-2020) G TB 29 4 $21,750,000 $5,437,500 $6,250,000 $6,250,000 28.74% 2021
Demar Dotson (2016-2019) RT TB 32 3 $16,500,000 $5,500,000 $4,250,000 $4,250,000 25.76% 2020
Donovan Smith (2015-2018) LT TB 24 4 $6,068,860 $1,517,215 $3,899,042 $3,899,042 64.25% 2019
Evan Smith (2018-2019) C TB 31 2 $4,000,000 $2,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 25.00% 2020
Ali Marpet (2015-2018) C TB 25 4 $3,773,586 $943,397 $1,004,424 $1,004,424 26.62% 2019
Caleb Benenoch (2016-2019) T TB 23 4 $2,593,185 $648,296 $253,185 $253,185 9.76% 2020
Cole Gardner (2017-2019) T TB 24 3 $1,670,000 $556,667 $5,000 $5,000 0.30% 2020
Leonard Wester (2016-2018) T TB 25 3 $1,640,000 $546,667 $35,000 $35,000 2.13% 2019
Avery Young (2018-2019) T TB 25 2 $1,050,000 $525,000 - - - 2020
Givens Price (2018-2019) T TB 23 2 $1,050,000 $525,000 - - - 2020
Brad Seaton (2018-2019) T TB 24 2 $1,050,000 $525,000 - - - 2020
Michael Liedtke (2017-2018) G TB 26 2 $1,020,000 $510,000 - - - 2019
Adam Gettis (2018-2018) G TB 29 1 $705,000 $705,000 - - - 2019


Dotson
Sweezy
Evan Smith

For needs to happen soon
Then, a heir apparent to Jensen. He wont be worth that kind of money even though he has good size for what I would like as a center.
Or he could push Jensen and settle for Smiths job.

I think we need to get rid of those top three salaries and hope we dont give D Smith one that looks like it. In one year? No, but it needs to be thought about.

You take the last 8 players and I dont think management thinks they have a shot in hell of up-ending anyone above those first six. So who will be the players to do that, a whole new group of guaranteed contracts in the following years?
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby real bucs fan » Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:19 am

Super K wrote:"IF" James had turned out to be the player he was pumped up to be, snagging him, whether passing on other top guys or not, would be a home run...hell, a grand slam, walk off home run..

Problem is he wasn't that player...not even close to...Fitz had a better career/tape...

Taking James is banking on his measurables and what you hope he can do...

I don't like it/him..not one bit..

Hopefully he proves me wrong, wherever he goes (let's just pray he's out of the division, just in case)....

I'm not a big PFF guy, but something I found interesting was that James graded as PFFs best safety in college football both years he was healthy. He's alot more than just measurables. His elite range and play against the run is evident on tape, as is his pass rush ability which makes him unique, but what I was intrigued to learn was that he led the power 5 among safeties in catch rate against at 46%. Bottom line? He made a TON of plays against the run and pass in a lot of different ways.

I think the only real knocks on James are the knee injury (which he should only be better from as he gets further away from it), and his position value as a safety.

But as a player, he's a tremendous prospect.
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby Doctor » Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:45 am

Derwin James definitely has amazing BOOM potential, yes, enough to be the best player in the class (behind the QBs). But he's the Josh Allen of defenders. Just as much boom just as much bust potential. Obviously if he works out he's totally worth the 7th overall, but given we don't know, that dice roll is just too rich for me at 7. He could very easily be LaRon Landry, Taylor Mays, or Calvin Pryor (who is a 25 y/o UFA atm).

There's way more knocks on James than just his knee (which is a big one, especially since he refused to work out for teams). He has terrible vision of the field, poor instincts, and is slow to react. He's so god damn physically gifted that he can make up for all that in the college level, but that won't cut it in the pros. Look at Devin Hester, perhaps the most physically gifted player I've seen since Deion Sanders. The guy was a brick between the ears. They had to take him aside to explain the each play to him at the U. At the next level they tried making him into a WR to just get the ball in his hands because the only thing he was ever able to use his physical gifts for was returning kicks. Now I'm not saying James is stupid, but the point is other flaws can more than negate physical gifts.

On the other side you have Fitz who, imo, is also incredibly physically gift though not as much as James, but has great instincts and a feel for the game.
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby Naismith » Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:02 am

Super K wrote:Mdb, what the **** are you gonna do with all those picks?...I don't understand the infatuation with acquiring an arsenal of draft picks instead of just staying where we are and selecting the best player on our board...


The more players you have on rookie contracts, the better your team is. They allow you to employ players at a skill level that exceeds their pay. The more players you have that are underpaid, the better your talent level. The more cheap players you have that can play, the more free agents you can allow to walk rather than pay and the more compensatory picks you acquire.

Most people focus on nailing a certain pick to get a superstar. Acquiring a lot of picks allows you more shots at getting a superstar and since the draft is a crapshoot, you will always have a better chance with more picks.
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby APiratesLifeForMe » Wed Apr 25, 2018 2:15 pm

Doctor wrote:Derwin James definitely has amazing BOOM potential, yes, enough to be the best player in the class (behind the QBs). But he's the Josh Allen of defenders. Just as much boom just as much bust potential. Obviously if he works out he's totally worth the 7th overall, but given we don't know, that dice roll is just too rich for me at 7. He could very easily be LaRon Landry, Taylor Mays, or Calvin Pryor (who is a 25 y/o UFA atm).

There's way more knocks on James than just his knee (which is a big one, especially since he refused to work out for teams). He has terrible vision of the field, poor instincts, and is slow to react. He's so god damn physically gifted that he can make up for all that in the college level, but that won't cut it in the pros. Look at Devin Hester, perhaps the most physically gifted player I've seen since Deion Sanders. The guy was a brick between the ears. They had to take him aside to explain the each play to him at the U. At the next level they tried making him into a WR to just get the ball in his hands because the only thing he was ever able to use his physical gifts for was returning kicks. Now I'm not saying James is stupid, but the point is other flaws can more than negate physical gifts.

On the other side you have Fitz who, imo, is also incredibly physically gift though not as much as James, but has great instincts and a feel for the game.


Yeah, I've heard so many coaches, scouts, etc. raving about Fitz's football I.Q.!

I'm not saying James is stupid either; however, even though he's extremely gifted physically (and supposedly a great addition in the locker room), I'm still not sure we should take him ahead of Fitz.

I'll be happy if we end up with either (as long as Barkley or Chubb are off the board). Fitz is the better fit in terms of defending the pass, though James is no slouch; James is clearly better at getting pressure on the QB. Both are good tacklers, though James often looks to blow things up and doesn't wrap up as well as Fitz. To me, Fitz always appeared to be a bit more consistent player on film. And, like some others here have suggested, James' injury history is a concern. It's a tough choice, but I'd probably go with Fitz. Besides, I believe Fitz might be the safest pick in the whole draft!
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby Alpha » Wed Apr 25, 2018 2:22 pm

I'm actually warming to the idea of taking James. Especially over Fitz. James is an athletic freak. Jalen Ramsey gushes over the kid (could just be FSU love but whatever).

I'd still take Nelson, if he's somehow available but I wouldn't put my foot through the tv if we drafted James.

And I couldn't say that 2 days ago.
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby Miller4Prez64 » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:30 pm

There is a lot of talk of Green Bay planning to move up, they may be trying to jump us to get a DB.
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby MJW » Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:50 pm

Miller4Prez64 wrote:There is a lot of talk of Green Bay planning to move up, they may be trying to jump us to get a DB.


Or they might end up dealing with us to get a DB. They could also be targeting Vea, or even Nelson.
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby Doctor » Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:34 pm

APiratesLifeForMe wrote:
Doctor wrote:Derwin James definitely has amazing BOOM potential, yes, enough to be the best player in the class (behind the QBs). But he's the Josh Allen of defenders. Just as much boom just as much bust potential. Obviously if he works out he's totally worth the 7th overall, but given we don't know, that dice roll is just too rich for me at 7. He could very easily be LaRon Landry, Taylor Mays, or Calvin Pryor (who is a 25 y/o UFA atm).

There's way more knocks on James than just his knee (which is a big one, especially since he refused to work out for teams). He has terrible vision of the field, poor instincts, and is slow to react. He's so god damn physically gifted that he can make up for all that in the college level, but that won't cut it in the pros. Look at Devin Hester, perhaps the most physically gifted player I've seen since Deion Sanders. The guy was a brick between the ears. They had to take him aside to explain the each play to him at the U. At the next level they tried making him into a WR to just get the ball in his hands because the only thing he was ever able to use his physical gifts for was returning kicks. Now I'm not saying James is stupid, but the point is other flaws can more than negate physical gifts.

On the other side you have Fitz who, imo, is also incredibly physically gift though not as much as James, but has great instincts and a feel for the game.


Yeah, I've heard so many coaches, scouts, etc. raving about Fitz's football I.Q.!

I'm not saying James is stupid either; however, even though he's extremely gifted physically (and supposedly a great addition in the locker room), I'm still not sure we should take him ahead of Fitz.

I'll be happy if we end up with either (as long as Barkley or Chubb are off the board). Fitz is the better fit in terms of defending the pass, though James is no slouch; James is clearly better at getting pressure on the QB. Both are good tacklers, though James often looks to blow things up and doesn't wrap up as well as Fitz. To me, Fitz always appeared to be a bit more consistent player on film. And, like some others here have suggested, James' injury history is a concern. It's a tough choice, but I'd probably go with Fitz. Besides, I believe Fitz might be the safest pick in the whole draft!

Don't sleep on Fitz pass rushing. He had 11 QB pressures, a sack, 5 qb hits, 5 qb hurries. Though, yeah, James is better.
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby Alpha » Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:54 pm

Doctor wrote:
APiratesLifeForMe wrote:
Yeah, I've heard so many coaches, scouts, etc. raving about Fitz's football I.Q.!

I'm not saying James is stupid either; however, even though he's extremely gifted physically (and supposedly a great addition in the locker room), I'm still not sure we should take him ahead of Fitz.

I'll be happy if we end up with either (as long as Barkley or Chubb are off the board). Fitz is the better fit in terms of defending the pass, though James is no slouch; James is clearly better at getting pressure on the QB. Both are good tacklers, though James often looks to blow things up and doesn't wrap up as well as Fitz. To me, Fitz always appeared to be a bit more consistent player on film. And, like some others here have suggested, James' injury history is a concern. It's a tough choice, but I'd probably go with Fitz. Besides, I believe Fitz might be the safest pick in the whole draft!

Don't sleep on Fitz pass rushing. He had 11 QB pressures, a sack, 5 qb hits, 5 qb hurries. Though, yeah, James is better.


The thing with James vs. Fits: The size differential. James is a SS. He's a big, big dude. 225/230 or so. Fitz is a much smaller guy: 205/210.

They are different players and we have J. Evans already. James is more of a fit than Fitz. In EVERY way. IF we go there...James is the better fit.

I actually like James over Fitz...for US. I think BOTH will be good players and I like both.


I just dread the option of us having Q. Nelson available, when we pick. I'd HATE that option...
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby Alpha » Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:59 pm

And stop the madness with teams wanting to trade with us. We aren't in a premium position to do it.

CHI picks after us...and they are not taking a QB. A team behind us would be better off trading with them, than us. Less capital to give up. And teams know we aren't drafting a QB either. It's just difficult to fathom a LEGITIMATE reason why a team would want OUR pick, as opposed to teams just ahead or behind us.

I guess we're about to find out...
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby MJW » Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:59 pm

Alpha wrote:
Doctor wrote:Don't sleep on Fitz pass rushing. He had 11 QB pressures, a sack, 5 qb hits, 5 qb hurries. Though, yeah, James is better.


The thing with James vs. Fits: The size differential. James is a SS. He's a big, big dude. 225/230 or so. Fitz is a much smaller guy: 205/210.

They are different players and we have J. Evans already. James is more of a fit than Fitz. In EVERY way. IF we go there...James is the better fit.

I actually like James over Fitz...for US. I think BOTH will be good players and I like both.


I just dread the option of us having Q. Nelson available, when we pick. I'd HATE that option...


Doctor and I have talked about this. He doesn't seem willing to accept that the role a guy will play on your team is as much of a consideration as their talent.

If it's a safety, I hope it's James at this point. Higher ceiling, better fit.
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby Alpha » Thu Apr 26, 2018 1:54 am

MJW wrote:
Alpha wrote:
The thing with James vs. Fits: The size differential. James is a SS. He's a big, big dude. 225/230 or so. Fitz is a much smaller guy: 205/210.

They are different players and we have J. Evans already. James is more of a fit than Fitz. In EVERY way. IF we go there...James is the better fit.

I actually like James over Fitz...for US. I think BOTH will be good players and I like both.


I just dread the option of us having Q. Nelson available, when we pick. I'd HATE that option...


Doctor and I have talked about this. He doesn't seem willing to accept that the role a guy will play on your team is as much of a consideration as their talent.

If it's a safety, I hope it's James at this point. Higher ceiling, better fit.


Yep.

I'm just praying Q. Nelson is off the board. I seriously don't want that **** drama in my life. I don't want to believe that we have to choose...

The tv could go off of the balcony...
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby MJW » Thu Apr 26, 2018 2:03 am

Alpha wrote:
MJW wrote:
Doctor and I have talked about this. He doesn't seem willing to accept that the role a guy will play on your team is as much of a consideration as their talent.

If it's a safety, I hope it's James at this point. Higher ceiling, better fit.


Yep.

I'm just praying Q. Nelson is off the board. I seriously don't want that **** drama in my life. I don't want to believe that we have to choose...

The tv could go off of the balcony...


I'd be happy if there were two guys I loved sitting there. And then enraged when Licht doesn't pick one of them. But I digress.

Barkley is my only, "Ah, ****" scenario here besides a left-field pick. The unwillingness to follow blocks is to running backs what poor accuracy is to quarterbacks, or not understanding coverage is to receivers. If the prospect doesn't have it, they're almost certain to disappoint you. Barkley does not follow blocks. He tries to win the Heisman on every carry. In the NFL, that nonsense can be summed up in three words - Tackle For Loss.

We draft him, we're getting our very own Reggie Bush. But that's all we're getting. We're not getting a bell-cow. We're not getting a guy who'll win on 3rd and 2 where other guys would get stuffed. We're getting a toy.
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby Brazen331 » Thu Apr 26, 2018 6:52 am

Not only is James a much better fit at SS than Fitz, he is also bigger, stronger and more explosive. James’ combine was much more impressive.

The players I want most are Nelson and Barkley. But there are a lot of positives to the James selection if that’s what’s going to happen. He probably has the highest ceiling of any Safety prospect. Maybe Sean Taylor’s was higher and Polomalu outplayed his potential.

If James hits he is the type of player who can be in the pro bowl as a rookie. But I do fear an early injury could derail his career just judging by how he responded to the knee injury.

Also consider that he hasn’t exactly had the best coaching. FSU’s DC sucked and he had a too personal relationship with James, it was like James was part of the family. I think he hindered his development.
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby Super K » Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:40 am

Naismith wrote:
Super K wrote:Mdb, what the **** are you gonna do with all those picks?...I don't understand the infatuation with acquiring an arsenal of draft picks instead of just staying where we are and selecting the best player on our board...


The more players you have on rookie contracts, the better your team is. They allow you to employ players at a skill level that exceeds their pay. The more players you have that are underpaid, the better your talent level. The more cheap players you have that can play, the more free agents you can allow to walk rather than pay and the more compensatory picks you acquire.

Most people focus on nailing a certain pick to get a superstar. Acquiring a lot of picks allows you more shots at getting a superstar and since the draft is a crapshoot, you will always have a better chance with more picks.


This is true from a statistical vantage point....but this isn't a math equation, it's the NFL draft..

With the point you are arguing, teams have a better chance of getting a a good QB if the trade out of the #1 spot for more picks and then drafting multiple QBs later...

But that doesn't happen....

Likewise teams whom acquire multiple and more picks usually occurs because their trade partner is giving up those picks to move UP and grab someone....so the impetus is based on "less picks/higher quality player"...
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby Naismith » Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:46 am

Quarterback is always the exception to everything because it's the most important position by a large margin and because the success rate at the top of the draft for QBs is so much higher than anywhere else in the draft.
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby APiratesLifeForMe » Thu Apr 26, 2018 8:26 am

MJW wrote:
Alpha wrote:
Yep.

I'm just praying Q. Nelson is off the board. I seriously don't want that **** drama in my life. I don't want to believe that we have to choose...

The tv could go off of the balcony...


I'd be happy if there were two guys I loved sitting there. And then enraged when Licht doesn't pick one of them. But I digress.

Barkley is my only, "Ah, ****" scenario here besides a left-field pick. The unwillingness to follow blocks is to running backs what poor accuracy is to quarterbacks, or not understanding coverage is to receivers. If the prospect doesn't have it, they're almost certain to disappoint you. Barkley does not follow blocks. He tries to win the Heisman on every carry. In the NFL, that nonsense can be summed up in three words - Tackle For Loss.

We draft him, we're getting our very own Reggie Bush. But that's all we're getting. We're not getting a bell-cow. We're not getting a guy who'll win on 3rd and 2 where other guys would get stuffed. We're getting a toy.


I live in the South, so when I watch CFB, it's almost always ACC/SEC games aside from the occasional national big-game matchup. So I've only seen Barkley play a couple of times. I never really noticed him not following his blocks; he seemed fine to me. I'm not saying you are wrong. I definitely have not seem him enough times to make the assessment, so if what you are saying is true, then that is not good! If that is indeed the case I'm not so sure I want him now!

That's Trent Richardson all over again!
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby MJW » Thu Apr 26, 2018 8:35 am

APiratesLifeForMe wrote:
MJW wrote:
I'd be happy if there were two guys I loved sitting there. And then enraged when Licht doesn't pick one of them. But I digress.

Barkley is my only, "Ah, ****" scenario here besides a left-field pick. The unwillingness to follow blocks is to running backs what poor accuracy is to quarterbacks, or not understanding coverage is to receivers. If the prospect doesn't have it, they're almost certain to disappoint you. Barkley does not follow blocks. He tries to win the Heisman on every carry. In the NFL, that nonsense can be summed up in three words - Tackle For Loss.

We draft him, we're getting our very own Reggie Bush. But that's all we're getting. We're not getting a bell-cow. We're not getting a guy who'll win on 3rd and 2 where other guys would get stuffed. We're getting a toy.


I live in the South, so when I watch CFB, it's almost always ACC/SEC games aside from the occasional national big-game matchup. So I've only seen Barkley play a couple of times. I never really noticed him not following his blocks; he seemed fine to me. I'm not saying you are wrong. I definitely have not seem him enough times to make the assessment, so if what you are saying is true, then that is not good! If that is indeed the case I'm not so sure I want him now!

That's Trent Richardson all over again!


I loved him initially, watching him in limited doses in the Big Ten. Big, athletic, great hands.

Then once the process started, I watched every single college touch he had. And I just kept seeing bouncing.
Blocked for four, bounces outside the blocking looking for 80.
Blocked for one, bounces to avoid taking on the defender at the POA and getting three.

You don't have to watch every game. Simply watch any of his highlight reels. Ask yourself how many times his big runs happened because he was simply more athletic than the 4.8 Big Ten linebacker scraping the edge. Then ask yourself if the run you just saw happens in the pros, or if Luke Kuechly or Deion Jones cuts him down for nothing. THEN watch the same run again, and ask yourself if he ignored his blocks to make it.

If he approaches running the ball in the NFL the way he did in college, he will not be a bell-cow. He will not be on the field on 3rd and 2. He will catch a ton of passes, break a few odd runs, and generally be a toy for a creative OC.

If one is okay with drafting that at #7, like I said, Mazel Tov. But we should be honest about what we'd be getting, that's all.
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby beardmcdoug » Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:10 am

MJW wrote:
APiratesLifeForMe wrote:
I live in the South, so when I watch CFB, it's almost always ACC/SEC games aside from the occasional national big-game matchup. So I've only seen Barkley play a couple of times. I never really noticed him not following his blocks; he seemed fine to me. I'm not saying you are wrong. I definitely have not seem him enough times to make the assessment, so if what you are saying is true, then that is not good! If that is indeed the case I'm not so sure I want him now!

That's Trent Richardson all over again!


I loved him initially, watching him in limited doses in the Big Ten. Big, athletic, great hands.

Then once the process started, I watched every single college touch he had. And I just kept seeing bouncing.
Blocked for four, bounces outside the blocking looking for 80.
Blocked for one, bounces to avoid taking on the defender at the POA and getting three.

You don't have to watch every game. Simply watch any of his highlight reels. Ask yourself how many times his big runs happened because he was simply more athletic than the 4.8 Big Ten linebacker scraping the edge. Then ask yourself if the run you just saw happens in the pros, or if Luke Kuechly or Deion Jones cuts him down for nothing. THEN watch the same run again, and ask yourself if he ignored his blocks to make it.

If he approaches running the ball in the NFL the way he did in college, he will not be a bell-cow. He will not be on the field on 3rd and 2. He will catch a ton of passes, break a few odd runs, and generally be a toy for a creative OC.

If one is okay with drafting that at #7, like I said, Mazel Tov. But we should be honest about what we'd be getting, that's all.


MJW - that's exactly what I saw when I watched the tape too. But I also kept having flash backs of last year when I was proclaiming Kamara as THE rb from the class to bust. Going to take a bit before I feel confident whatsoever making calls on RB's. These two past years are by far the most I've watched pre-draft tape though, so we'll see how the RB's from this class pan out...

anyways, +1, saw the same thing, FWIW.

There's still a part of me that would abandon all reason and probably get REALLY hyped to see him on the field this September if we were to draft him
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby APiratesLifeForMe » Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:12 am

MJW wrote:
APiratesLifeForMe wrote:
I live in the South, so when I watch CFB, it's almost always ACC/SEC games aside from the occasional national big-game matchup. So I've only seen Barkley play a couple of times. I never really noticed him not following his blocks; he seemed fine to me. I'm not saying you are wrong. I definitely have not seem him enough times to make the assessment, so if what you are saying is true, then that is not good! If that is indeed the case I'm not so sure I want him now!

That's Trent Richardson all over again!


I loved him initially, watching him in limited doses in the Big Ten. Big, athletic, great hands.

Then once the process started, I watched every single college touch he had. And I just kept seeing bouncing.
Blocked for four, bounces outside the blocking looking for 80.
Blocked for one, bounces to avoid taking on the defender at the POA and getting three.

You don't have to watch every game. Simply watch any of his highlight reels. Ask yourself how many times his big runs happened because he was simply more athletic than the 4.8 Big Ten linebacker scraping the edge. Then ask yourself if the run you just saw happens in the pros, or if Luke Kuechly or Deion Jones cuts him down for nothing. THEN watch the same run again, and ask yourself if he ignored his blocks to make it.

If he approaches running the ball in the NFL the way he did in college, he will not be a bell-cow. He will not be on the field on 3rd and 2. He will catch a ton of passes, break a few odd runs, and generally be a toy for a creative OC.

If one is okay with drafting that at #7, like I said, Mazel Tov. But we should be honest about what we'd be getting, that's all.


I may go back and look at some film (as I'm curious now), but I believe you. And like I alluded to in my previous post, that kind of puts the kibosh on my excitement of him possibly falling to us.

I don't want Trent Richardson 2.0. That was the reason why he was a bust. Like you said, you can look like an all-world player doing that crap in college, but you're not getting away with that in the NFL!
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby Super K » Thu Apr 26, 2018 10:58 am

Naismith wrote:Quarterback is always the exception to everything because it's the most important position by a large margin and because the success rate at the top of the draft for QBs is so much higher than anywhere else in the draft.


But it's not just about QBs...DE/LT/WR etc, it's every position...hell, that's why we are all flustered about Chubb, because if he goes off the board taking DE2 and/or DE3 sucks...

Every pro sports league draft is set up so that the worse teams have the 1st chance at selecting the top talent...if that wasn't an advantage, and your line of thinking was, they'd give the best teams the higher picks, 1 each, and the worse teams lower but multiple picks..

As an example, we'll pick 3 players, you choose the position, I get pick #1 out of the lot, you get picks 2 and 3...who would you rather be, me or you?....

I'll take choosing 1st every damn day of the week...
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby MJW » Thu Apr 26, 2018 11:33 am

Super K wrote:
As an example, we'll pick 3 players, you choose the position, I get pick #1 out of the lot, you get picks 2 and 3...who would you rather be, me or you?....

I'll take choosing 1st every damn day of the week...


I wouldn't. The 2nd and 3rd pick in any given draft aren't any less likely to make good than the 1st pick is. The lost possibility of one player isn't nearly as harmful to the effort as the value of a doubled chance of finding a great player. I'm fairly certain that if you gave the worst team this option, they'd take the "2nd and 3rd" choice more often than not. I can think of maybe 3 or 4 draft classes in the last 20 where that wouldn't be the case.
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby Super K » Thu Apr 26, 2018 12:13 pm

MJW wrote:
Super K wrote:
As an example, we'll pick 3 players, you choose the position, I get pick #1 out of the lot, you get picks 2 and 3...who would you rather be, me or you?....

I'll take choosing 1st every damn day of the week...


I wouldn't. The 2nd and 3rd pick in any given draft aren't any less likely to make good than the 1st pick is. The lost possibility of one player isn't nearly as harmful to the effort as the value of a doubled chance of finding a great player. I'm fairly certain that if you gave the worst team this option, they'd take the "2nd and 3rd" choice more often than not. I can think of maybe 3 or 4 draft classes in the last 20 where that wouldn't be the case.


Ok, in that example I'll agree..giving up #1 for #s 2 and 3...sure...

But that is a far cry from say giving up #5 for #s 19 and 42...

That's the argument I'm trying to make as that seems to be the route many want to go...

Give up #7 to pick up , say, #14 and #46...
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby sonofg » Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:03 pm

I'm curious as to why people think an "enforcer" safety is a good fit in today's NFL. No trying to be clever, I'm genuinely asking.
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby Doctor » Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:06 pm

sonofg wrote:I'm curious as to why people think an "enforcer" safety is a good fit in today's NFL. No trying to be clever, I'm genuinely asking.

Because casual hands like things simple, square pegs, square holes, everything nice and tidy. We have a rangy FS (who can hit, btw) so now we need a hard hitting SS to put in the box because reasons. We have a big WR, now we need a fast WR. We need all the spots in the trenches locked in for ten years. We have a lightening we need a thunder or we have a yin we need a yang.
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby sonofg » Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:12 pm

Doctor wrote:
sonofg wrote:I'm curious as to why people think an "enforcer" safety is a good fit in today's NFL. No trying to be clever, I'm genuinely asking.

Because casual hands like things simple, square pegs, square holes, everything nice and tidy. We have a rangy FS (who can hit, btw) so now we need a hard hitting SS to put in the box because reasons. We have a big WR, now we need a fast WR. We need all the spots in the trenches locked in for ten years. We have a lightening we need a thunder or we have a yin we need a yang.


I typed pretty much this, but deleted it to not muddle my actual question. Justing Evans can run, cover, and hit. On paper, one of few strengths on the Bucs is the LBs. If the Bucs were to take a safety, wouldn't Fitzpatrick be a better fit for how the game is actually played? Two guys on the back end who can both run, cover, and hit. Especially with the whole "In Mike Smith's defense the safeties are interchangeable" thing people keep saying. They're only interchangeable if they actually have overlapping skill sets.
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby Caradoc » Thu Apr 26, 2018 4:34 pm

You don't need a LB sized guy to play SS, which is basically what James is/will be once he puts on a few pounds. We have a solid LB corps, an with improvements on the line we won't be relying on a downhill safety to save our run game. So far James has been more athlete than football player. And a ton of what people like him for amounts to projecting what he will become "with NFL coaching". If we pick him I am going to be terrified we once again used the 7th pick on Mark Barron.
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Re: Who are we taking with our first pick?

Postby Super K » Thu Apr 26, 2018 5:31 pm

Caradoc wrote:You don't need a LB sized guy to play SS, which is basically what James is/will be once he puts on a few pounds. We have a solid LB corps, an with improvements on the line we won't be relying on a downhill safety to save our run game. So far James has been more athlete than football player. And a ton of what people like him for amounts to projecting what he will become "with NFL coaching". If we pick him I am going to be terrified we once again used the 7th pick on Mark Barron.


PERFECTLY said...
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