Week 7 Opponent - Circling the Wagons in Buffalo

[Nano]

Lets move forward

This week our 2-3, and in last place, Bucs travel to face the 3-2, and 2nd place AFC East, Buffalo Bills.

The Bills 2 losses have been by a combined 10 points, meanwhile, they've beaten the Broncos, Falcons, and Jets.

We're coming off a 38-33 loss to the Cardinals, where we trailed 31-0 at one point. We haven't looked very good this season. We could get Kwon back this year.

Buffalo is an early -3 fav

[acmillis]

They have the #1 scoring D in the league. This game will be hard to watch, something like 15-9 or some god awful nastiness...we lose.

[DreadNaught]

The Bills are coming off their bye week so they'll be well rested. Since they are on the schedule I've had my eye on them this season. They have been playing very sound football on both sides. The Bills are not a flashy team by any means and lack playmakers on offense, but they have a stout defense that keeps them in games and have found a way to win games in the 4th quarter.

Former Carolina DC Sean McDermott is the new Bills HC and brought that blue collar mentality to the team. They often keep a safety close to the LOS in a 8 man box and play a ton of base cover 3 zone on defense limiting big plays downfield. On offense their offense goes through RB Shady McCoy and the PA that comes off of it w/ their mobile QB Tyrod Taylor. Their TE Charles Clay is out with injury and they don't have much at WR either. They are team that seems to know who they are, what they do well while not pretending to be something they are not.

It's quite an interesting clash since the Bills have been one of the most consistent teams this season despite their marginal talent face off against a Bucs team that has been the most INCONSISTENT in the NFL despite our talent.

[ComingThisFall]

Can't wait for BM3 to turn Zay Jones into a household name this week. Signing him to my FF team off waivers is on my todo list today

[Doctor]

This seems like a great trap game.... for the Bills. They no doubt saw the game yesterday and have to be thinking, Bucs next? That's a W.

This is a defense where we need to pass to set up the run. So we need Winston and his bad shoulder to hit DJax deep.... in other words keep Fitz in.

[pewterpirates]

We could get Kwon back this year.

Just curious. Did you do this on purpose? Or did you mean to say 'week' instead of 'year'?

Either way, it's freaking hilarious. We could get Kwon back this year. But maybe not.

[DanTurksGhost]

Circling the wagons or the drain?

[UbuntuBuc]

The Bills are going to Destroy the Buccaneers this weekend. Do not bother watching the game. Just log in on Monday for Ich's debrief.

[DreadNaught]

I think the team will bounce back and play their best game of the season. I don't have any reason as to why, I am just choosing to believe the guys in the locker room have some type of pride and will come out and play well after being embarrassed vs the Cards.

On paper I actually like this match-up. But the same could be said for the Vikings and Cards games and those didn't turn out well at all.

I think we get Doug going vs the Bills run defense and our pass defense doesn't get embarrassed by Tyrod Taylor throwing to Zay Jones and whatever other no-name receivers. The Bills are the 2nd worst passing offense and only average 3.4yds per carry when they run it. It's time for the defense to step the **** up and win a game for us!!

It's time to circle the wagons!!!

[ComingThisFall]

Jordan Matthews, Nick O'Leary and Zay Jones are about on par with the Vikings receiver corps. They will kill us on play action if we can't stop Shady.

Not sure if TJ Ward came back too early but he looked bad against the Cards. They controlled the LOS and seemed to be running at Grimes and Hargreaves somehow

[DreadNaught]

Jordan Matthews, Nick O'Leary and Zay Jones are about on par with the Vikings receiver corps.

I disagree. Diggs has proven to be a legit WR1 when healthy, Theilen is the only NFL WR w/ 5+ catches in every game this season and ranks top 3 in yards behind only AB and AJ Green (not bad), and Kyle Rudolf has been a good TE in this league for a few years.

Jordan Matthews is the only Bills receiver that has any production in the NFL and that was as a #3 WR in Philly, a place he was buried on the depth chart and thus traded away. He's solid, but he'd be 3rd on the Vikings WR depth chart.

O'Leary is a poor mans Cam Brate. He'll find some soft spots against zone coverage but is a liability in the run game and I look forward to him blocking Will Gholston.

I agree we need to stop the run. That goes without saying vs every team.

[ComingThisFall]

Reminds me of Half Baked. The Bucs have an enhancement defense.

[DreadNaught]

Reminds me of Half Baked. The Bucs have an enhancement defense.

lol, can't argue with that.

[DreadNaught]

Ian Rapoport‏Verified account @RapSheet 24m24 minutes ago
More
#Bucs QB Jameis Winston suffered an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder, source said. It may be something he’ll be able to play through

So it sounds like he 'should' be able to play. Jameis sounded confident postgame and the MRI results came back today with no severe damage.

[Buc2]

Meaning he gets a cortisone injection prior to game time.

[Super K]

Meaning he gets a cortisone injection prior to game time.

I need a cortisone shot before the game...

[Buc2]

Meaning he gets a cortisone injection prior to game time.

I need a cortisone shot before the game...

I need a shot before the game too. A tequila shot.

[Super K]

The Bills will take away our ground game..no doubt about it..our scheme and tendencies are about as creative as melting vanilla ice cream..

We need to show them something new..attack THEM with something they are not prepared for..

We got back into the NE and Zona games in hurry up/spread which allowed for different routes and opened up running lanes...

We should do it more often and much, MUCH sooner..get the D on it's heels..

Coming out in 21 personnel and going:

1st down run/PA
2nd down run
3rd down chunk play pass

Isn't gonna cut it..

[Jason Bourne]

I think Jameis sits this week , we should go no huddle .

[billsfan1212]

As I mentioned in the QB thread...
To us, the difference in this game is the qb.
Many Bills fans would feel comfortable predicting a win if Fitz starts. It's pretty even with a not right/injured JW.
If we get a healthy JW?
Well, it might be a long day.

Buffalos precived advantages at this point are...
Home field- in buffalo, it matters. They get pub for being crazy and stupid, but that place rocks.

RUN GAME- after being at the top the last 2 yrs, we changed our scheme this year to zone blocking and outside the Jets game it's been pretty sad. They've gone against some of the top D's, but that hasn't mattered in years past. They will be looking to reestablish it this week for sure and they feel they'll have a good chance at doing so against Tampas front.

DEFENSE- All 3 wins can be directly attributed to the D. It's been a nice surprise that Bills fans certainly weren't expecting. The precived weakness was the secondary and as it turns out, it's actually been the stregenth. The front is back to form of a couple years ago with K Williams, J Hughes and co. Sadly, the cornerstone Dareus has fallen out of favor and played 22% of snaps last game. Their play has allowed the back end to ball hawk.

Our issues are...

OFFENSE or rather the 11 guys who go out when the D isn't there. This team has gotten breaks and were winning in a manner that dissent seem sustainable. Even with all the picks and turn overs on most we would have been better off kicking a fg on 1st down bc rather than taking advantage of great field position, they go backwards and have relied on 55yrd bombs.
This O was essentially given the CIN game before the bye with 3 picks and a fumble and couldn't take advantage. It's a sad state of affairs. Our leading 'receiver' was our RE Clay and now he's injured and will be out weeks. Matthews was also supposed to be out weeks, but was upgraded to day to day this am. Still, it makes no difference. They were depending on Zay Jones to make an impact, but the poor kid drops everything thrown to him. He's in his own head.... which brings us to Oleary. Let's just get this out ofnthe way now bc they'll say it 100x on the broadcast. He doesn't wear gloves and he's jack Nicholas grand son. Other than that, no thing noteworthy but going into this game will be the top target who doesn't line up in the back field.

This team was precived as tanking to start the year. Then, the D got hot and kept em in games. Very much a bend but don't break that tends to make a bunch of stops right at or outside of opponents fg range.

They planned on being a typical WC style but figured out it was like putting a square peg in a round hole bc TT can't process the game fast enough and had a ton of picks and batted balls in the preseason.

As a Bills fan, I hope the D can score at least once. If Fitzy plays, there's a better than 50% chance that happens... but that's a pretty bad way to hope to win lol.

Another small advantage is we are coming off the bye.
HOPEFULLY they took the time to see what worked well last year and implement it going forward. TT is at his best when the play breaks down and he's on the run improvising. When that happens, he doesn't have to worry about timing or being late on a pass. When he's not, he has to have a guy college open... which is why he has so few INT. At his best, he was playing a read option type game. We haven't seen that at all this year . Maybe that comes out this weekend.

Expect a lot if moving lines and play actions to try and get him moving. If Tampa keeps him in the pocket with a spy they'll find much success.

Buffalos whole game is staying in it until the end and either making a game winning stop on D at the end, or being down 1 or 2 and trying to get into fg range for the win.

Along with only 1 300+ (HE needed OT to do it mind you and has been sub 200 yards passing most games this yr) TT has also never had a game winning drive at the end of the game.

Sorry if it's a tough read, but I'm on a phone and battling auto correct.

Good luck guys!! Should be a fun close game and Sunday can't come soon enough!!!

[DanTurksGhost]

The Bills will take away our ground game..no doubt about it..our scheme and tendencies are about as creative as melting vanilla ice cream..

Our offense has GOT to be one of the easiest to defend against in the league. Winston's inaccuracy means if the other team simply focuses on shutting down the run game early, Winston's deficiencies will show up and limit our opportunity to succeed. Get up a couple of scores and the team will completely abandon the run whatsoever and Winston will try to convert into hero mode, thus leading to even more mistakes. Keep putting the game on his shoulders and he will make the crucial mistake that will ultimately cost the team the game. While sometimes he will, in fact, be he hero and win he game, it's just as likely -- or even more -- that it will go the opponent's way once Winston is behind the eight ball.

If I were a defensive coordinator I'd put it on him every single time and tell my team: "Yes, he's going to make some plays, but keep forcing him to throw the football as much as possible and because of his inaccuracy we'll win his one."

[Super K]

The Bills will take away our ground game..no doubt about it..our scheme and tendencies are about as creative as melting vanilla ice cream..

Our offense has GOT to be one of the easiest to defend against in the league. Winston's inaccuracy means if the other team simply focuses on shutting down the run game early, Winston's deficiencies will show up and limit our opportunity to succeed. Get up a couple of scores and the team will completely abandon the run whatsoever and Winston will try to convert into hero mode, thus leading to even more mistakes. Keep putting the game on his shoulders and he will make the crucial mistake that will ultimately cost the team the game. While sometimes he will, in fact, be he hero and win he game, it's just as likely -- or even more -- that it will go the opponent's way once Winston is behind the eight ball.

If I were a defensive coordinator I'd put it on him every single time and tell my team: "Yes, he's going to make some plays, but keep forcing him to throw the football as much as possible and because of his inaccuracy we'll win his one."

Our defense being easy to defend isn't due to JW...

In case it was missed,.the new board folk hero Fitz-magic threw 2 killer picks last night but also saw success when we were in spread/hurry up..just like JW does..

[tjax03]

The differnece in this game is mccoy running it down our throats

Bills get at least 3 ints

[DreadNaught]

Welcome to the board billsfan1212, even if it's only for the week.

I'm curious what type of personnel groupings you see the Bills using on offense this Sunday. They want to run the ball so they can be balanced and keep Taylor ahead of the chains. But they lack WRs and the top 2 TEs are OLeary and Logan Thomas (the former VTech QB). Neither of those guys can block inline vs DE or even a SLB at the point of attack. Despite the Bucs defensive performance vs Arizona, we've been solid vs the run this season as indicated by our YPC against.

I know the Bills defense is legit and will be asked to pretty much win the game for them while the offense doesn't lose it. As Bucs fans we lived that life for years in the late 90's - early 00's. But this Bills defense is overachieving thus far imo and I agree that formula is not sustainable in 2017 with how the rules/game has opened things up for offense. It's possible the Bills get 2-3 takeaways, you just can't rely on that every game is all.

[Deja Entendu]

Maybe a weakened arm will be good for Jameis... his overthrows will be on target.

[ComingThisFall]

Maybe a weakened arm will be good for Jameis... his overthrows will be on target.

Lol. And he might actually throw the underneath routes

[Deja Entendu]

Maybe a weakened arm will be good for Jameis... his overthrows will be on target.

Lol. And he might actually throw the underneath routes

Exactly!! Starting gimpy Winston will give us the offense we've expected all along. Watch out now!

Sorry, Bills guy; you seem nice, but your team is about to get ROLLED by gimpy Winston!

[DreadNaught]

Was looking over the press release from the Bucs for the upcoming game. The Bills are ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in nearly every category except two;

Scoring Defense 14.8 (1st)
Turnover Margin +8 (2nd)

This is similar to the Panthers defense of 2015 when they went 15-1. Obviously that Panthers team had that seasons NFL MVP in Cam Newton and A LOT more talent on offense (and defense imo) than this Bills team. But that 2015 Panthers team DC is the current HC of the Bills, so kudos to him for sticking with the winning formula.

[billsfan1212]

Lol. And he might actually throw the underneath routes

Exactly!! Starting gimpy Winston will give us the offense we've expected all along. Watch out now!

Sorry, Bills guy; you seem nice, but your team is about to get ROLLED by gimpy Winston!

Hey man, any given Sunday!!!

I'm on a Bucs board, I dont expect to be reading how they are just going to lay down lol.

I will say that this drought has done quite a number on Bills fans in a number of ways.
One of which is back in our heyday in the 90's, youd find ignorant (even when not drunk) fans who would be a lousy winner. Kinda like Pats fans now.
I'll deal with Brady as long we we have to and at this point have just accepted it for what it is on the premise that once hes gone - so are the Pats.
If the Bills are still bad, well, that sucks BUT watching Pats fans crash back to reality will be a heck of a show. Hats off, theyve had a helluva run but its sad that its near impossible to have a convo about football bc of their holier than thou attitude. And i get it... but I admit I'm excited for the day I get to see it all crash and burn.
We've been fooled with 5-1 (and similar give or take) starts over the years only to end up 6-10 etc.
As big of a fan as I am, I wouldnt even talk about blowing out a team on my own board just bc I wont even pretend to have a clue.
Even still, the way some of these games are shaking out ya just never know what is going to happen throughout the course of the game.
Will the refs make a terrible call that totally changes the momentum? is a 28-3 lead safe going into the 2nd half?
Its been a crazy year and none of these games have turned out the way I would have guessed prior to opening kickoff.
So, have at it and flame away- I know what I signed up for coming to the other teams board. I just like to get familiar and engage in some conversation thats a bit different than the normal homer Bills spin!

[billsfan1212]

Welcome to the board billsfan1212, even if it's only for the week.

I'm curious what type of personnel groupings you see the Bills using on offense this Sunday. They want to run the ball so they can be balanced and keep Taylor ahead of the chains. But they lack WRs and the top 2 TEs are OLeary and Logan Thomas (the former VTech QB). Neither of those guys can block inline vs DE or even a SLB at the point of attack. Despite the Bucs defensive performance vs Arizona, we've been solid vs the run this season as indicated by our YPC against.

I know the Bills defense is legit and will be asked to pretty much win the game for them while the offense doesn't lose it. As Bucs fans we lived that life for years in the late 90's - early 00's. But this Bills defense is overachieving thus far imo and I agree that formula is not sustainable in 2017 with how the rules/game has opened things up for offense. It's possible the Bills get 2-3 takeaways, you just can't rely on that every game is all.

Me too, and if you happen to hear anything I'd love to know.
And there in lies the Bills problem.
2 TE with Clay and OLeary seems to be when TT has been most comfortable this year.
Both ( but mostly Clay ) have been able to block and then sneak out and get open down field.... especially when Taylor is spinning in circles and running around.
The last 2 years, outside of the run game the only thing the O had going for them was when things broke down Watkins and Goodwin would just sprint downfield and TT would chuck it as far as he could hoping theyd catch up to it and get a big play score.
They could score from anywhere at anytime and it was nice to have that ability.
This year... YUCK! (real descriptive- i know..)
I will say that in their successes for whatever reason everyone now and then they get things going different directions and everything is moving and they are able to sustain drives that end in TDs.
But its all or nothing. They'll have a 8-10 min drive and come back out the next 3 series and go 3 and out.
We've had to watch some serious Jeckyl and Hyde play calling just from series to series. run-run-pass for 3 drives (maybe 1 1st down) and then out of no where it clicks and things get moving and mixed up... only to go right back to blah.
To their credit, believe it or not, they are 2 drives from 5 and 0.
Taylor made a poor pass to a wide open Zay Jones (who dropped it - with room to run for a TD) with time expiring in CAR and last game they got the ball back with 2 min left and a TD wins the game but that was one of the aforementioned 'bad' drives lol.
So to answer your question... I have no idea what theyll do with a rookie and a backup as their TE. People have high expectations for Thomas, but he isnt ready yet and cost shady a 40+ yrd run last week that could have been the difference if not for the hold.
Matthews prob wont be 100% if he even plays, so the consensus is maybe we will see some run option and let TT and Shady do their thing and see what happens.

The only good thing about being SOL like the Bills O is, is no one knows what to expect.
I'm glad I'm not gameplanning for them bc outside of a heavy dose of the run - your guess is as good as mine!
I just hope they find a way to get the WRs more than 4 targets.
Only being used for screens and slants isnt helping very much

Which Bucs run D do we get? 1st few weeks or the one that showed up against AP and AZ last week?
IMO, that right there is the difference in a W or L for either team