20 Fantasy Football Thoughts As I Run Out The Clock At Work

[MJW]

1) In a vacuum, I don't think much of Brock Osweiler. Working with Bill O'Brien, who has a bit of the Jim Harbaugh touch with quarterbacks (and a perfect scheme for Osweiler's talents), I think he'll end the year with a top ten grade.

2) On quarterbacks in general, don't draft one early, period. Matt Stafford, who I have as my 19th best QB right now, threw for 32 TDs and 4,000 yards last year. There's just no value in taking one early. Your 2nd round QB will likely outpoint your 10th round QB by 2-3 PPG (depending on your scoring.)

3) I have Jamaal Charles as my 17th ranked running back. 30, 2 blown knees, and his backups looked great in his absence. Let someone else take him in the top 15.

4) As a Nebraska fan, I wouldn't touch Ameer Abdullah with a ten foot pole until he proves he can stay healthy and hold onto the ball. Theo Riddick already does everything Abdullah was drafted to do and doesn't have those issues.

5) I think the Chargers will give Melvin Gordon every chance to prove he doesn't suck, and he'll do enough. I'm thinking 900 yards and 6 TDs. Solid #3 back numbers to be had in the middle rounds.

6) I like Derrick Henry to be getting the majority of Tennessee's carries by Columbus day. He's bigger, stronger, and more explosive than DeMarco Murray. I'd draft him as a RB3 easily.

7) Two more rookie running backs to look for - Devontae Booker and Wendell Smallwood. Booker has first round talent with the ball in his hands and he fits the ZBS perfectly. He could be the next Arian Foster for Kubiak. Smallwood has almost nothing between himself and carries. Ryan Mathews stinks and can't stay healthy and Darren Sproles isn't that guy. I'm in a keeper league and I'm targeting them both.

8) I don't draft any running backs from the Giants. If one of them emerges, mazel tov. But the upside isn't there with that situation.

9) One more sleeper - Cameron Artis Payne. Not a great talent but if anything happens to Stewart, or if he's ineffective, CAP will get those touches and could run away with them, so to speak.

10) Everyone seems down on Deymarius Thomas because his QB situation sucks. His QB situation sucked last year, too, and he still put up borderline WR1 numbers.

11) Torrey Smith is the only established threat on an offensive scheme that puts up big yards. Even with their bad quarterbacks in San Fran, I expect him to put up excellent WR2 stats, similar to his best year in Baltimore.

12) Sterling Shepard might be good, maybe really good. But the overhype means he'll go earlier than he should considering the learning curve for many rookie receivers.

13) Chris Hogan is going to get all those stats we all thought Danny Amendola would get when he came to the Patriots a few years ago. Draft him as a WR4 in a PPR league and be prepared for a good return.

14) This TE group is a mess. Unless you overpay for Gronk, or land Olsen (or maybe Reed)...wait. There are like 12 guys who will put up 65-700-6 or so.

15) But I do really like Eric Ebron to be this year's Tyler Eifert, and I love Clive Walford in my keeper league.

16) I have Arizona's defense #1 overall. They lost nobody and added Chandler Jones and Robert Nkemdiche. They also get to play 1/4th of their games against either a rookie or Claine Gabernick. Behind them, I have Minnesota. Complete defense, well coached, in their 3rd year in the scheme.

17) Here's a tip on kickers - draft one with a late bye week so you don't have to drop someone you drafted early. The later the bye week, the more time you have to evaluate who you can drop, or to have someone get injured and put on (your) IR so you can free up a roster spot. It sucks when you love your team but your kicker has a week four bye so you have to drop someone.

18) Back to quarterbacks - I think Russell Wilson regresses statistically this year a bit. The Seahawks have made it clear they got away from what they do best last year (running,) and their line looks like a mess right now, so he's going to get pressured a ton. He can handle it, but I don't look for his numbers to benefit from it at this point.

19) Don't be scared by Le'Veon Bell's 3 game suspension. Consider it a way for him to be fresher for the fantasy playoffs, and don't forget he's playing for a contract. Just be sure to handcuff DeAngelo Williams.

20) I don't think much of Matt Jones. I don't see him as more than a low-end RB2 going forward, or maybe a solid RB2 in a PPR. But I would't draft him as an RB1. He'll get touches but expect a lot of 19 carries for 62 yards type games. Those aren't going to win anyone a title.

[Deuce]

1) In a vacuum, I don't think much of Brock Osweiler. Working with Bill O'Brien, who has a bit of the Jim Harbaugh touch with quarterbacks (and a perfect scheme for Osweiler's talents), I think he'll end the year with a top ten grade.

1. I highly disagree. Osweiler is conservative and loves to check down too much. I think the Texans fantasy skill players actually are downgraded with him at the helm. His ceiling is 16-18, imo.

2) On quarterbacks in general, don't draft one early, period. Matt Stafford, who I have as my 19th best QB right now, threw for 32 TDs and 4,000 yards last year. There's just no value in taking one early. Your 2nd round QB will likely outpoint your 10th round QB by 2-3 PPG (depending on your scoring.)

2. This is very true. I also took Cam Newton in the 10th last year, and it's a keeper league.

3) I have Jamaal Charles as my 17th ranked running back. 30, 2 blown knees, and his backups looked great in his absence. Let someone else take him in the top 15.

3. I have him just behind Eddie Lacy and Doug Martin, just ahead of LeSean McCoy. He's my RB 12.

4) As a Nebraska fan, I wouldn't touch Ameer Abdullah with a ten foot pole until he proves he can stay healthy and hold onto the ball. Theo Riddick already does everything Abdullah was drafted to do and doesn't have those issues.

4. Yep. I can see that one, too. I got caught up in the hype last year and blew a 6th rounder on him.

5) I think the Chargers will give Melvin Gordon every chance to prove he doesn't suck, and he'll do enough. I'm thinking 900 yards and 6 TDs. Solid #3 back numbers to be had in the middle rounds.

5. Sounds about right. Under the radar, I expect him to catch a decent amount of passes this year, too. I'm thinking around 30.

6) I like Derrick Henry to be getting the majority of Tennessee's carries by Columbus day. He's bigger, stronger, and more explosive than DeMarco Murray. I'd draft him as a RB3 easily.

6. For sure. I didn't know how he'd transition to the NFL, but it's already apparent he's going to be fine.

7) Two more rookie running backs to look for - Devontae Booker and Wendell Smallwood. Booker has first round talent with the ball in his hands and he fits the ZBS perfectly. He could be the next Arian Foster for Kubiak. Smallwood has almost nothing between himself and carries. Ryan Mathews stinks and can't stay healthy and Darren Sproles isn't that guy. I'm in a keeper league and I'm targeting them both.

8) I don't draft any running backs from the Giants. If one of them emerges, mazel tov. But the upside isn't there with that situation.

8. This is true, I mostly play PPR so I'd consider Vereen

9) One more sleeper - Cameron Artis Payne. Not a great talent but if anything happens to Stewart, or if he's ineffective, CAP will get those touches and could run away with them, so to speak.

10) Everyone seems down on Deymarius Thomas because his QB situation sucks. His QB situation sucked last year, too, and he still put up borderline WR1 numbers.

11) Torrey Smith is the only established threat on an offensive scheme that puts up big yards. Even with their bad quarterbacks in San Fran, I expect him to put up excellent WR2 stats, similar to his best year in Baltimore.

11. Yeah, I'd like to take a late round flyer on him. Similarly, a guy who no one talks about or wants to take, Kamar Aiken. I know I'll draft him on most of my teams.

12) Sterling Shepard might be good, maybe really good. But the overhype means he'll go earlier than he should considering the learning curve for many rookie receivers.

12. Yeah, it's like trading stocks. People draft Sterling Shepard where he's going are buying high. Look for guys who aren't currently getting buzz, like the aforementioned Aiken.

13) Chris Hogan is going to get all those stats we all thought Danny Amendola would get when he came to the Patriots a few years ago. Draft him as a WR4 in a PPR league and be prepared for a good return.

13. I might be scared off by the whole Amendola thing but I wouldn't count on that at all.

14) This TE group is a mess. Unless you overpay for Gronk, or land Olsen (or maybe Reed)...wait. There are like 12 guys who will put up 65-700-6 or so.

14. Another good point. The only other one I'd target is Delanie Walker, I think he's a lock to put up 80 receptions.

15) But I do really like Eric Ebron to be this year's Tyler Eifert, and I love Clive Walford in my keeper league.

16) I have Arizona's defense #1 overall. They lost nobody and added Chandler Jones and Robert Nkemdiche. They also get to play 1/4th of their games against either a rookie or Claine Gabernick. Behind them, I have Minnesota. Complete defense, well coached, in their 3rd year in the scheme.

16. I guess. But defenses almost never finish exactly how you'd think so I still wouldn't take one until the second to last round.

17) Here's a tip on kickers - draft one with a late bye week so you don't have to drop someone you drafted early. The later the bye week, the more time you have to evaluate who you can drop, or to have someone get injured and put on (your) IR so you can free up a roster spot. It sucks when you love your team but your kicker has a week four bye so you have to drop someone.

18) Back to quarterbacks - I think Russell Wilson regresses statistically this year a bit. The Seahawks have made it clear they got away from what they do best last year (running,) and their line looks like a mess right now, so he's going to get pressured a ton. He can handle it, but I don't look for his numbers to benefit from it at this point.

18. I thought that I read that last year his success was attributed to short drops and quick passes. If that's the case, I could continue to see them following that gameplan. He definitely can't keep up what he was doing over the second half of last year or he'll have the best QB season of all time.

19) Don't be scared by Le'Veon Bell's 3 game suspension. Consider it a way for him to be fresher for the fantasy playoffs, and don't forget he's playing for a contract. Just be sure to handcuff DeAngelo Williams.

19. I still haven't decided on that one. First, my main league is total points. In head to head, it's different. Also, someone will take DeAngelo Williams too high because of what he did last season. I HATE spending two draft picks in my first 8 or so on one player (basically). I handcuffed Arian Foster like four years ago. He stayed healthy all season and I kept some guy who's name I can't remember on my bench weeks like 1-14. I hated it and will never handcuff again.

20) I don't think much of Matt Jones. I don't see him as more than a low-end RB2 going forward, or maybe a solid RB2 in a PPR. But I would't draft him as an RB1. He'll get touches but expect a lot of 19 carries for 62 yards type games. Those aren't going to win anyone a title.

[Deuce]

I wanted to post something original as well. I somewhat covered this in the post above but don't reach for the flashy names. Josh Gordon, Kevin White, Breshad Perriman, Sterling Shepard, draft any of those guys and you're sure to get some ooo's and ah's in your draft room. However, their hype has inflated their draft price and it's not worth it.

Frank Gore, Kamar Aiken, Melvin Gordon, Torrey Smith, draft any of these guys and you're sure to get a "meh" reaction. All Frank Gore does it keep putting up productive seasons. Kamar Aiken was a good option, especially in PPR, down the stretch last season. Melvin Gordon was hyped like the above guys before last season. And Torrey Smith is the #1 WR in a Chip Kelly offense.

Just saying, look for the value, not the hype.