2018 Mid-Term Elections

A Place to respectfully discuss those topics that you should never discuss.
post

2018 Mid-Term Elections

Postby Ken Carson » Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:46 pm

I've been making a few posts about these and people seem interested, so I'll create this thread. I'd prefer if the focus can stay on commenting on the races, not the politics of the day if possible.

As of today, October 4, 538 has a 7 in 9 chance for Republicans to maintain a majority (50/50 tie is a majority with Pence as tiebreaker).

The most likely outcomes are as follows:
- Republicans retain current balance (+1 R) 16.3%
- Republicans gain 1 seat (+2 R) 14.9%
- Democrats gain 1 seat, but Republicans retain control via Pence (even) (14.6%)
- Republicans gain 2 seats (+3 R) 11.9%
- Democrats gain 2 seats (+1 D) 11.2% chance

That covers 70% of the outcomes, so I'll stop there.

Races that matter:
North Dakota
Heidi Heitkamp is a single-term Senator from a deep red state. She barely won in 2012, likely riding some Obama optimism to a narrow 0.9% margin against a fellow non-incumbent. This seat is critical for Ds if they want to pick up net seats, but right now things don't look great for Heitkamp. What was a close race early in September has widened to a 10.5 point lead for the Republican challenger Kevin Cramer. These polls were conducted following the Kavanaugh hearings, which seem to have greatly influenced the race in Cramer's favor at this point. With a month to go, can Heitkamp close the gap? Doubtful. Looking highly likely the 'Pubs re-take this seat.

Tennessee
The good news for Democrats is that there is a real chance they win in Tennessee, a state that they have been shut out in since 1995. And with former governor Phil Bresden, the Dems have the more experienced candidate. Early polling has had Bresden with a small advantage over Republican US Rep Marsha Blackburn most of the summer, but most recents polls (again, taken from immediately after the Kavanaugh hearings, though should be less impactful here as neither is an incumbent) have Blackburn pulling ahead by 5 points. Bresden has some work to do to win this seat for Democrats.

Indiana
Joe Donnelly is defying the odds so far in a deep red state. Even in a state that went for Trump by 20 points, Donnelly still has a 2 point lead over his challenger, and this is despite him saying that he would vote no on Brett Kavanaugh. In fact, the same poll which is reporting a 2 point lead for Donnelly had him down 2 points to Republican Mike Braun. What makes this race so interesting is the high number of undecided voters, a full 17% of them. How those voters break in the next month will surely determine the fate of this seat that Democrats might see as far more competitive than they would have liked. However, Donnelly has been a moderate Democrat, and his opponent has never held an office higher than state senator, which should give him just the edge he needs to keep this seat blue.

West Virgina
Joe Manchin annihilated his challenger 6 years ago by 24 points and has been a very moderate Democrat (64% voting record). And that has kept him fairly safe in the polls, though there is not anything particularly recent available that isn't a partisan poll. I'm calling this seat safely blue until something changes, though I would expect Manchin to vote to confirm Kavanaugh, unless he wants to turn this into a dogfight. West Virgina went overwhelmingly for Trump in 2016.

Florida
Bill Nelson's seat wasn't supposed to be contested closely, but it is, as termed-out governor Rick Scott, noted Skeletor impersonator, has maintained a dead heat with Nelson since polling opened. This seat is a coin flip, a far cry from Nelson's 12 point win in 2012.

Arizona
Arizona is a very interesting race, as the state has been a fairly safe Republican seat while John McCain held it down for a generation. However, new blood enters the fray on both sides in an all-female matchup. Kyrsten Sinema and Martha McSally are in a tight race, currently led slightly by Sinema, the Democrat. A potential barrier could be Angela Green, running unironically for the Green Party, currently polling at around 2.5%. Right now, this looks like a Democrat seat, but it's on the edge of a knife.

Missouri
Claire McCaskill won this seat going away in 2012, but like many of her contempories, her state has drastically shifted right in national politics. She is in a dogfight with former attonery general Josh Hawley with latest polling showing a dead heat. The smart money is on McCaskill, and she has raised $16 million dollars to Hawley's $4 million for this race, but this has got to be uncomfortable for her and Senate Democrats. This one is a complete toss up at this point.

Nevada
This is a Republican seat that is in some real trouble, and the bad news for Democrats is that this first time I've said that so far. Incumbent Dean Heller does have a difficult battle in a state that went for Hilary Clinton in 2016, and he only managed to win this seat in 2012 by 2 points. This one is even closer than Missouri, and I'd call it complete toss up ass well.

Texas
Yes, you read that right. Ted Cruz is in a battle for his seat. There are not many recent polls, and the ones that are recent are Democrat-partisan polls which show Cruz with a lead, albeit slim. Why is this race even competitive? One answer could be that Cruz is a <insert colorful phrase>. However, it's more likely money. Beto O'Rourke has raised $23 million, more than double Ted Cruz's warchest. It's unlikely that O'Rourke has exhausted those formidable resources (more than any other candidate I researched), so expect this one to be close up until the final week. It would be a very massive blow to the Republicans to lose a seat in Texas, and probably the best path Democrats have to flipping the Senate.

That's all for now. Hope you enjoyed my breakdown.
Ken Carson
 
Posts: 3900
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:33 pm
Has thanked: 3 times
Been thanked: 194 times

Re: 2018 Mid-Term Elections

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:09 pm

Thought on the races I know about in the OP

West Virginia -Joe Manchin, despite being a corporate Democrat, was a pretty popular Governor for the state before winning Robert Byrd's seat in the Senate. Patrick Morressy had a run as attorney General of West Virginia that was not without controversy. This is an internal fight within the state rather than a national one, and I think West Virginians re-elect Manchin by a less than comfortable margin based on them disliking Manchin less than they dislike Morressy. If this thread gets any traction, I'll show some stuff about the WV 3rd House district race that is really interesting.

Florida- Bill Nelson should be running away with this election right now since even Florida Republicans seem to have had enough of Rick Scott. But he's not because the only thing Bill Nelson has left to run on is not being Rick Scott. I'll be voting for Nelson in November, but I'm not exactly enthusiastic about it.

Texas- Beto would be getting crushed if he were running against Cornyn, but Ted Cruz is about as icky a Republican Senator that you could ask for. Beto has a tall hill to climb to convince enough Texans that he is safe enough a candidate to allow them to dump Cruz which is something I think a majority of Texans secretly would be okay with if it is the right guy. I'm pulling for Beto, but I don't know if he's going to have enough support to pull it out. If he wins, Democrats will start talking about flipping Texas blue again, but again, I think Beto would be getting his ass handed to him if he were running against Cornyn.
Image
User avatar
Mountaineer Buc
 
Posts: 14817
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:15 pm
Location: Crestucky
Has thanked: 160 times
Been thanked: 679 times

Re: 2018 Mid-Term Elections

Postby DreadNaught » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:22 pm

Beto is going win Texas just like Hillary did, amirite MB??
Image
User avatar
DreadNaught
 
Posts: 13834
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:18 am
Has thanked: 558 times
Been thanked: 599 times

Re: 2018 Mid-Term Elections

Postby Zarniwoop » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:23 pm

DreadNaught wrote:Beto is going win Texas just like Hillary did, amirite MB??



Beto is making me do the near impossible -- vote for Cruz. And he Lib candidate is actually quite decent for a change.
Zarniwoop
 
Posts: 7011
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:23 pm
Has thanked: 378 times
Been thanked: 305 times

Re: 2018 Mid-Term Elections

Postby MJW » Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:02 am

Ken Carson wrote:North Dakota
Heidi Heitkamp is a single-term Senator from a deep red state. She barely won in 2012, likely riding some Obama optimism to a narrow 0.9% margin against a fellow non-incumbent. This seat is critical for Ds if they want to pick up net seats, but right now things don't look great for Heitkamp. What was a close race early in September has widened to a 10.5 point lead for the Republican challenger Kevin Cramer. These polls were conducted following the Kavanaugh hearings, which seem to have greatly influenced the race in Cramer's favor at this point. With a month to go, can Heitkamp close the gap? Doubtful. Looking highly likely the 'Pubs re-take this seat.


She ended all doubt when she said she'd vote No on Kavanaugh today. Now she's just building up her cred for her soon-to-be-announced CNN gig.
Image
User avatar
MJW
 
Posts: 9249
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:17 am
Location: Nebraska
Has thanked: 217 times
Been thanked: 407 times

Re: 2018 Mid-Term Elections

Postby MJW » Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:02 am

DreadNaught wrote:Beto is going win Texas just like Hillary did, amirite MB??


I didn't think Hillary would win Texas, but once Wendy Davis shocked everyone...
Image
User avatar
MJW
 
Posts: 9249
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:17 am
Location: Nebraska
Has thanked: 217 times
Been thanked: 407 times

Re: 2018 Mid-Term Elections

Postby Buc2 » Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:04 am

Virginia
2016 Vice President candidate and incumbent U.S. Senator Tim Kaine is riding name recognition to an 18 point lead over Republican challenger, Corey Stewart, per the latest Quinnipiac University poll. With 10% undecided, coupled with the large Dem populations in the NoVA and Tidewater areas, I think it's safe to say that this seat will remain solidly on the D's side. Nothing to see here.
Image
Don't tread on me
User avatar
Buc2
 
Posts: 12390
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:16 pm
Location: America
Has thanked: 1000 times
Been thanked: 430 times

Re: 2018 Mid-Term Elections

Postby Ken Carson » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:02 am

Bad news for Democrats in 538s latest article on Senate polling: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/se ... d-arizona/

Both Arizona and Nevada, seen as easier pickups, have tightened to the point where latest data has these as leaning to the Republicans. Couple that with distance being put between R's and D's in deep red states such as Texas and Tennessee, and the Dems are now thinking that the best they can do is hold the seats they currently have.

Some good news has been Indiana, which shortly after the Kavanaugh hearings was tightening. However, Mike Donnelly has been campaigning in the middle (or the alt-right depending on how you see things left of Bernie Sanders), supporting Trump's border wall with Mexico in a recent ad. Like fellow red stater Joe Manchin, Donnelly has found it necesary to campaign much farther right than his national party. And while that seems to be working for Donnelly, Manchin has seen his support lead drop in single digits in multiple recent polls. He does not appear to be in any danger, however.

In Missouri, Claire McCaskill is in real trouble. She has not had a lead in any poll since late September, she is in a state Trump dominated, and she has had to deal with some very negative press from a Project Veritas sting. The last one, where aides allegedly tell journalists that she is going to support semi-automatic rifle banning or curtailing, is a major hurdle that counts as an October surprise. This race will come down to the wire.

An area where some new data would be great is Montana. Not a single nonpartisan poll has been released Sept 22, and even the mot recent partisan poll, which 538 said favored the Democratic incumbent by 1.9 points, was released the day of the Kavanaugh hearings.

Florida continues to be a toss-up, with Rick Scott holding a slim lead. He may be buoyed by early voting, as current Florida exit polls are showing Scott and gubernatorial candidate Ron DeSantis have significant margins.
Ken Carson
 
Posts: 3900
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:33 pm
Has thanked: 3 times
Been thanked: 194 times

Re: 2018 Mid-Term Elections

Postby Zarniwoop » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:09 am

All I can say is I'm happy that the more money Beto spends the worse he is doing (dude has spent nearly $40M on this race!!!) ... plus he sucks in our debates.

I'm thinking I might not have to hold my nose and vote for Cruz and I can actually vote for Dikeman.

https://www.nealdikeman.com/
Zarniwoop
 
Posts: 7011
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:23 pm
Has thanked: 378 times
Been thanked: 305 times

Re: 2018 Mid-Term Elections

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:17 am

Some number guru says there is a 97% chance the Democrats take over the house and a 2% chance they take over the senate after running 10,000 simulations.

Supposedly there should be a small Dem majority in the house and a near even split in the Senate. Link

NPR is expecting high turnout (45-50%). The NYT is reminiscing the end of the 19th century when voter turnout was as high as 80%.
Image
User avatar
Mountaineer Buc
 
Posts: 14817
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:15 pm
Location: Crestucky
Has thanked: 160 times
Been thanked: 679 times

Re: 2018 Mid-Term Elections

Postby Ken Carson » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:21 am

Beto is actually holding most of his money at this point. Speculation is that he is going to save it for a 2020 presidential bid, as he has refused to give any of it to democrats in more competitive races.

MB, I agree that the most likely outcome is a small majority in the House for Dems and a similarly small majority for Republicans in the Senate. Though I think both of those projections are too high. 538 has both at 80/20 odds, which seems more realistic.
Ken Carson
 
Posts: 3900
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:33 pm
Has thanked: 3 times
Been thanked: 194 times

Re: 2018 Mid-Term Elections

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:25 am

Ken Carson wrote:Beto is actually holding most of his money at this point. Speculation is that he is going to save it for a 2020 presidential bid, as he has refused to give any of it to democrats in more competitive races.

MB, I agree that the most likely outcome is a small majority in the House for Dems and a similarly small majority for Republicans in the Senate. Though I think both of those projections are too high. 538 has both at 80/20 odds, which seems more realistic.

Beto needs to win a Senate seat before he starts thinking about 2020. I don't see how he's supposed to knock off Donald Trump if he can't knock off Ted Cruz.

republicans don't even like Ted Cruz.
Image
User avatar
Mountaineer Buc
 
Posts: 14817
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:15 pm
Location: Crestucky
Has thanked: 160 times
Been thanked: 679 times

Re: 2018 Mid-Term Elections

Postby DreadNaught » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:34 am

Mountaineer Buc wrote:Some number guru says there is a 97% chance the Democrats take over the house and a 2% chance they take over the senate after running 10,000 simulations.

Supposedly there should be a small Dem majority in the house and a near even split in the Senate. Link

NPR is expecting high turnout (45-50%). The NYT is reminiscing the end of the 19th century when voter turnout was as high as 80%.


I think that is the most likely outcome. Dems should win back the house and history is on their side since the opposition party normally gains seats in the mid-terms following a general election. If by some minor chance the GOP retains the House I think it's a huge red flag (no pun intended) for the Democrats moving forward.

I expect the Senate to remain a slight GOP majority. The races just didn't favor the Dems since they were defending alot more seats, including some in red states. But the silver lining for Dems is that the races in the Senate should favor them more in 2020 then they are in these '18 mid-terms. So that will be (statistically) a better chance for Dems to retake the Senate.

Obama won in '08 and the Dems had all 3 branches which allowed them to push through the ACA right away. Lost the House in '10, Lost the Senate in '12, but the GOP didn't have a good enough candidate to defeat Obama. Didn't really matter though b/c an American President can't do much in terms of lasting policy when the opposition controls both the House and Senate.
Image
User avatar
DreadNaught
 
Posts: 13834
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:18 am
Has thanked: 558 times
Been thanked: 599 times

Re: 2018 Mid-Term Elections

Postby DreadNaught » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:37 am

Mountaineer Buc wrote:
Ken Carson wrote:Beto is actually holding most of his money at this point. Speculation is that he is going to save it for a 2020 presidential bid, as he has refused to give any of it to democrats in more competitive races.

MB, I agree that the most likely outcome is a small majority in the House for Dems and a similarly small majority for Republicans in the Senate. Though I think both of those projections are too high. 538 has both at 80/20 odds, which seems more realistic.

Beto needs to win a Senate seat before he starts thinking about 2020. I don't see how he's supposed to knock off Donald Trump if he can't knock off Ted Cruz.

republicans don't even like Ted Cruz.


Beto appeals the coastal Dems MUCH better then he does to most Texans it seems. He ran in the wrong state. If Beto was in a blue state, or even a swing state (No MB, Texas is not a swing state) he'd win a Senate race by a large margin imo

Running and strict gun control and lax immigration works better in New York then it does in Texas apparently.
Image
User avatar
DreadNaught
 
Posts: 13834
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:18 am
Has thanked: 558 times
Been thanked: 599 times

Re: 2018 Mid-Term Elections

Postby Ken Carson » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:39 am

Mountaineer Buc wrote:
Ken Carson wrote:Beto is actually holding most of his money at this point. Speculation is that he is going to save it for a 2020 presidential bid, as he has refused to give any of it to democrats in more competitive races.

MB, I agree that the most likely outcome is a small majority in the House for Dems and a similarly small majority for Republicans in the Senate. Though I think both of those projections are too high. 538 has both at 80/20 odds, which seems more realistic.

Beto needs to win a Senate seat before he starts thinking about 2020. I don't see how he's supposed to knock off Donald Trump if he can't knock off Ted Cruz.

republicans don't even like Ted Cruz.

I don’t disagree. Personally, I think Beto (have a hard time calling him that, too, because my Hispanic family would cringe if I asked them to call me by a Hispanic term of endearment) is the wrong standard bearer for the party.
Ken Carson
 
Posts: 3900
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:33 pm
Has thanked: 3 times
Been thanked: 194 times

Re: 2018 Mid-Term Elections

Postby Zarniwoop » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:39 am

DreadNaught wrote:
Mountaineer Buc wrote:Beto needs to win a Senate seat before he starts thinking about 2020. I don't see how he's supposed to knock off Donald Trump if he can't knock off Ted Cruz.

republicans don't even like Ted Cruz.


Beto appeals the coastal Dems MUCH better then he does to most Texans it seems. He ran in the wrong state. If Beto was in a blue state, or even a swing state (No MB, Texas is not a swing state) he'd win a Senate race by a large margin imo

Running and strict gun control and lax immigration works better in New York then it does in Texas apparently.


I think this could be the case.
Zarniwoop
 
Posts: 7011
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:23 pm
Has thanked: 378 times
Been thanked: 305 times

Re: 2018 Mid-Term Elections

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:49 am

DreadNaught wrote:
Mountaineer Buc wrote:Some number guru says there is a 97% chance the Democrats take over the house and a 2% chance they take over the senate after running 10,000 simulations.

Supposedly there should be a small Dem majority in the house and a near even split in the Senate. Link

NPR is expecting high turnout (45-50%). The NYT is reminiscing the end of the 19th century when voter turnout was as high as 80%.


I think that is the most likely outcome. Dems should win back the house and history is on their side since the opposition party normally gains seats in the mid-terms following a general election. If by some minor chance the GOP retains the House I think it's a huge red flag (no pun intended) for the Democrats moving forward.

I expect the Senate to remain a slight GOP majority. The races just didn't favor the Dems since they were defending alot more seats, including some in red states. But the silver lining for Dems is that the races in the Senate should favor them more in 2020 then they are in these '18 mid-terms. So that will be (statistically) a better chance for Dems to retake the Senate.

Obama won in '08 and the Dems had all 3 branches which allowed them to push through the ACA right away. Lost the House in '10, Lost the Senate in '12, but the GOP didn't have a good enough candidate to defeat Obama. Didn't really matter though b/c an American President can't do much in terms of lasting policy when the opposition controls both the House and Senate.

Even if the Dems win the house, they need to do a post-mortem on this race. Specifically, from a "type of Democrat" point of view at the new freshman class.

My prediction is that the winning Democrats will tend to be the ones talking issues, and the losing ones will tend to be talking Trump. But that's not something we'll see right away.
Image
User avatar
Mountaineer Buc
 
Posts: 14817
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:15 pm
Location: Crestucky
Has thanked: 160 times
Been thanked: 679 times

Re: 2018 Mid-Term Elections

Postby Ken Carson » Fri Oct 19, 2018 11:15 am

Very true, MB. What’s interesting is the internal struggle within the Democratic Party between the progressives and the more establishment candidates. Despite AOC getting the press, this from 538:
In races where a party-endorsed candidate ran against a progressive-group-endorsed candidate (excluding any races where a candidate was endorsed by both sides), the party-endorsed candidate won 89 percent of the time.


There is unity, obviously, going into the midterms, but afterwards the fun will begin.
Ken Carson
 
Posts: 3900
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:33 pm
Has thanked: 3 times
Been thanked: 194 times

Re: 2018 Mid-Term Elections

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Fri Oct 19, 2018 11:34 am

Ken Carson wrote:Very true, MB. What’s interesting is the internal struggle within the Democratic Party between the progressives and the more establishment candidates. Despite AOC getting the press, this from 538:
In races where a party-endorsed candidate ran against a progressive-group-endorsed candidate (excluding any races where a candidate was endorsed by both sides), the party-endorsed candidate won 89 percent of the time.


There is unity, obviously, going into the midterms, but afterwards the fun will begin.

Is that primary results? I assume so. The Progressives had a lot of an uphill climb this summer with money being the primary factor. Still, any candidate that is refusing corporate money is a win for the party whether the DNC backed them or not. The movement itself is really only 2years old so I'll take it.
Image
User avatar
Mountaineer Buc
 
Posts: 14817
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:15 pm
Location: Crestucky
Has thanked: 160 times
Been thanked: 679 times

Re: 2018 Mid-Term Elections

Postby Ken Carson » Fri Oct 19, 2018 11:48 am

Mountaineer Buc wrote:
Ken Carson wrote:Very true, MB. What’s interesting is the internal struggle within the Democratic Party between the progressives and the more establishment candidates. Despite AOC getting the press, this from 538:


There is unity, obviously, going into the midterms, but afterwards the fun will begin.

Is that primary results? I assume so. The Progressives had a lot of an uphill climb this summer with money being the primary factor. Still, any candidate that is refusing corporate money is a win for the party whether the DNC backed them or not. The movement itself is really only 2years old so I'll take it.


Yes, those are only primaries. Narrative can certainly change based on who wins general elections from those same groups.
Ken Carson
 
Posts: 3900
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:33 pm
Has thanked: 3 times
Been thanked: 194 times


post

Return to Politics and Religion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Buc2, Google [Bot] and 16 guests