US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby RedLeader » Thu Jul 26, 2018 4:01 pm

Facebook share-loss biggest ever

Facebook shares lost as much as $120 billion in value Thursday — the most in one day for a U.S. traded company — after its CFO said growth may slow as the company prioritizes privacy concerns in the wake of a data-sharing scandal.




Good grief.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Thu Jul 26, 2018 4:03 pm

Mattel lays off 2,200 workers over an 11% sales dip.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby mdb1958 » Thu Jul 26, 2018 4:48 pm

And the Super Rich fight back!

Gotta understand the animal that Trumps trying to kill here/
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby beardmcdoug » Thu Jul 26, 2018 5:07 pm

RedLeader wrote:Facebook share-loss biggest ever

Facebook shares lost as much as $120 billion in value Thursday — the most in one day for a U.S. traded company — after its CFO said growth may slow as the company prioritizes privacy concerns in the wake of a data-sharing scandal.




Good grief.


Good

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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Thu Jul 26, 2018 5:11 pm

beardmcdoug wrote:
RedLeader wrote:Facebook share-loss biggest ever

Facebook shares lost as much as $120 billion in value Thursday — the most in one day for a U.S. traded company — after its CFO said growth may slow as the company prioritizes privacy concerns in the wake of a data-sharing scandal.




Good grief.


Good

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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby mdb1958 » Thu Jul 26, 2018 6:50 pm

Free the Zombies!
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Rocker » Thu Jul 26, 2018 6:52 pm

mdb1958 wrote: Free the Zombies!


No.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby DreadNaught » Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:22 pm

Heard on the radio Zuckerberg's net worth decreases approximately $15 Billion today.

He's still a multi billionaire, but that is quite the hit.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Zarniwoop » Fri Jul 27, 2018 7:42 am

GDP growth was 4.1%
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby uscbucsfan » Fri Jul 27, 2018 7:43 am

Zarniwoop wrote:GDP growth was 4.1%

Misleading a bit, but still good. The tariffs are the main culprit for that.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby mdb1958 » Fri Jul 27, 2018 8:04 am

Mountaineer Buc wrote:
beardmcdoug wrote:
Good

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I sometimes think about how the phone people would act if their phones went down for a couple years.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby RedLeader » Fri Jul 27, 2018 8:10 am

Zarniwoop wrote:GDP growth was 4.1%


Wow. Thats huge.

‘Consumer spending grew 4%, while nonresidential business investment jumped 7.3%, both also considered strong numbers.’
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby RedLeader » Fri Jul 27, 2018 8:14 am

‘Some economists credit Trump's tax cuts with the high GDP growth. Both companies and consumers have been spending again as unemployment plunged to an 18-year low and the housing market boomed.’

"When you drop taxes and increase spending, even if some of it is saved rather than spent, it boosts growth," Jim O'Sullivan, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, told CNBC. "Ultimately, that boost won't last forever, and of course you've added to the government debt. But there's no question that it's stimulative."
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Buc2 » Fri Jul 27, 2018 8:18 am

If only we could get that asshats in Congress to come up with some viable cuts to offset some/all of the tax cuts.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Brazen331 » Fri Jul 27, 2018 8:57 am

How can you possibly be excited by this 4.1 percent growth rate and this low unemployment when it’s because everyone is having to work two jobs?
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby NavyBuc » Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:01 am

Bill Maher is pissed.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby RedLeader » Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:39 am

NavyBuc wrote:Bill Maher is pissed.


Unfortunately, i can think of some on this very board who will be pissed.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Buc2 » Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:00 am

A CNN tweet from 2016:

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The CNN story that went with it...
Trump promises 4% growth. Economists say no way.
by Patrick Gillespie @CNNMoney
October 11, 2016: 1:52 PM ET

Donald Trump has a big promise for the U.S. economy: 4% growth.

No chance, say 11 economists surveyed by CNNMoney. And a paper published Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco backs them up.

"No, pigs do not fly," says Robert Brusca, senior economist at FAO Economics, a research firm. "Donald Trump is dreaming."

The Republican presidential nominee made the promise in a speech in New York in September. "I believe it's time to establish a national goal of reaching 4% economic growth," he said.

Since the Great Recession, growth has averaged 2%. Brusca and the other economists surveyed say that 4% growth is impossible, or at least highly unlikely. The reasons: Unemployment is already really low, lots of Baby Boomers are retiring, and there are far fewer manufacturing jobs today than in past decades.

Trump's team says it will get to 4% growth with tax cuts, better trade deals and more manufacturing jobs.

So what's realistic? The San Francisco Fed estimates the "new normal" for annual economic growth to be 1.5% to 1.75%. That's far lower than the period from World War II to 2004, when growth typically hovered between 3% and 4%.

Oops!

The new spin:
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:20 am

IDK why you'd call it spin. They revised down the growth of the previous quarter.

I'll wait until we get wage and inflation numbers before I applaud.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby uscbucsfan » Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:21 am

uscbucsfan wrote:
Zarniwoop wrote:GDP growth was 4.1%

Misleading a bit, but still good. The tariffs are the main culprit for that.


Seems this is being missed, but I think the economy is doing great and I'm really excited, but you can't trust that GDP number. Almost a whole year of soybean exports were sent to China, waiting to enter the harbor, before tariffs kicked in and this was the case for many goods to Europe and China. It doesn't tell the whole story as we saw a huge spike in exporting these goods that will not be sustained. I heard Craig Dismuke saying there could be a massive drop as a result, but factoring that in we are actually around 3.3%, which is still very good.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:25 am

uscbucsfan wrote:
uscbucsfan wrote:Misleading a bit, but still good. The tariffs are the main culprit for that.


Seems this is being missed, but I think the economy is doing great and I'm really excited, but you can't trust that GDP number. We almost a whole year of soybean exports waiting to enter the harbor before tariffs kicked in and this was the case for many goods to Europe and China. It doesn't tell the whole story as we saw a huge spike in exporting these goods that will not be sustained. I heard Craig Dismuke saying there could be a massive drop as a result, but factoring that in we are actually around 3.3%, which is still very good.

Even if it holds at 4%, you can't just take GDP growth in a vacuum. GDP growth and wage growth vs. inflation have to be taken into account.

Back when we were looking at the 1Q returns, the GDP growth was nice and median wages increased, but inflation just wasted it all.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby uscbucsfan » Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:25 am

Mountaineer Buc wrote:
uscbucsfan wrote:
Seems this is being missed, but I think the economy is doing great and I'm really excited, but you can't trust that GDP number. We almost a whole year of soybean exports waiting to enter the harbor before tariffs kicked in and this was the case for many goods to Europe and China. It doesn't tell the whole story as we saw a huge spike in exporting these goods that will not be sustained. I heard Craig Dismuke saying there could be a massive drop as a result, but factoring that in we are actually around 3.3%, which is still very good.

Even if it holds at 4%, you can't just take GDP growth in a vacuum. GDP growth and wage growth vs. inflation have to be taken into account.

Back when we were looking at the 1Q returns, the GDP growth was nice and median wages increased, but inflation just wasted it all.

I agree.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Buc2 » Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:27 am

So this isn't good. Got it.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:32 am

Buc2 wrote:So this isn't good. Got it.

It isn't good yet
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby uscbucsfan » Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:34 am

Buc2 wrote:So this isn't good. Got it.


No. It's good, it's just A) misleading a bit and B) not the whole story.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby deltbucs » Fri Jul 27, 2018 11:33 am

People can be so simple-minded when they want to.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Buc2 » Fri Jul 27, 2018 12:03 pm

deltbucs wrote:People can be so simple-minded when they want to.

Right?
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Fri Jul 27, 2018 12:23 pm

Disneyland agrees to pay its workers $15 an hour

Unions representing nearly 10,000 Disneyland workers accepted Disney's three-year contract to raise starting hourly wages to $15 an hour beginning next year. The agreement ends a lengthy labor battle over pay at Disney's Anaheim resort.


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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Zarniwoop » Fri Jul 27, 2018 12:28 pm

Wonder what law made them do that?

:P
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby RedLeader » Fri Jul 27, 2018 12:30 pm

Andrew Bartels predicts US GDP growth in Q2 2018 is likely to be repeated in second half of 2018:


4% real GDP growth in Q2 2018 is likely to be repeated in second half of 2018. Many economists had expected the strong growth in Q2, but they had assumed that a significant part of that growth would come from inventory build-ups in anticipation of tariffs and trade barriers. Instead, private inventory levels actually declined in Q2, subtracting from GDP growth.

Consumer spending was strong, up 4%, led by spending on consumer durables.

Business investment in structures rose at a 13% rate (similar to Q1), but business investment in equipment grew more modestly by 3%.

US exports were surprisingly strong at a 13% growth rate, while US imports were surprisingly weak with just 1% growth.

US government spending growth was moderate but positive at 2% growth, led by a 5.5% rise in US defense spending.

Overall, the characteristics point to 4% or so real GDP growth in Q3, slowing to 3% or so in Q4.
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