US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Buc2 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 12:02 pm

The Outsider wrote:All I'm saying is that if people want to give Trump credit for good things in the economy they should also give him responsibility for the bad.

Of course it's mostly the legislature when it boils down to it. I'd be surprised if Donny knew enough about economics to even have an original thought on the matter.

Pretty sure Donny has a pretty good grasp of economics despite your hatred of him.

As to the only part of your post that actually makes sense, I agree. While Congress came up with the plan, Trump still signed off on it. Without cuts somewhere, this is obviously going to increase debt. This next budget needs to address this or, and I will agree, it's not a very good plan. Now if they make the necessary cuts to offset the tax decreases, this may become a different story.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby The Outsider » Fri Mar 16, 2018 12:33 pm

Buc2 wrote:
The Outsider wrote:All I'm saying is that if people want to give Trump credit for good things in the economy they should also give him responsibility for the bad.

Of course it's mostly the legislature when it boils down to it. I'd be surprised if Donny knew enough about economics to even have an original thought on the matter.

Pretty sure Donny has a pretty good grasp of economics despite your hatred of him.

As to the only part of your post that actually makes sense, I agree. While Congress came up with the plan, Trump still signed off on it. Without cuts somewhere, this is obviously going to increase debt. This next budget needs to address this or, and I will agree, it's not a very good plan. Now if they make the necessary cuts to offset the tax decreases, this may become a different story.



Okay I'll break it down for you.

1: "All I'm saying is that if people want to give Trump credit for good things in the economy they have to give him responsibility for the bad things" Translation: Go read through this thread and you'll see plenty of people giving the President credit for the stock boom and job growth. If those things are his doing than he deserves blame for the deficit increase.

2. Donald Trump hardly understands his native language let alone a complex subject like economics. The guy is a moron, and if you can't see that I can't help you. It becomes more and more obvious every time he opens his mouth. Trump is as stupid as Democrats wanted to W to be.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:38 pm

Just saw this....

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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Zarniwoop » Wed Mar 21, 2018 1:02 pm

Interesting. I’d like to see some detail on who has the loans and what type.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Wed Mar 21, 2018 1:38 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:Interesting. I’d like to see some detail on who has the loans and what type.

I would think they are much more stable loan types than the subprime garbage that was flying around 10 years ago. But given the level of debt and the penchant for treating real estate like a stock (equity > utility) I think a sudden economic downturn could have another (albeit less drastic) housing collapse.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Buc2 » Wed Mar 21, 2018 1:44 pm

Mountaineer Buc wrote:
Zarniwoop wrote:Interesting. I’d like to see some detail on who has the loans and what type.

I would think they are much more stable loan types than the subprime garbage that was flying around 10 years ago. But given the level of debt and the penchant for treating real estate like a stock (equity > utility) I think a sudden economic downturn could have another (albeit less drastic) housing collapse.

Without context, those numbers do seem a bit alarming. But they shouldn't be surprising. Borrowing rates have been keep low and, coupled with the improving economy, lower unemployment & higher wages, people have more confidence and more borrowing power and are exercising that power. So, not really surprising to me.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:25 pm

Buc2 wrote:
Mountaineer Buc wrote:I would think they are much more stable loan types than the subprime garbage that was flying around 10 years ago. But given the level of debt and the penchant for treating real estate like a stock (equity > utility) I think a sudden economic downturn could have another (albeit less drastic) housing collapse.

Without context, those numbers do seem a bit alarming. But they shouldn't be surprising. Borrowing rates have been keep low and, coupled with the improving economy, lower unemployment & higher wages, people have more confidence and more borrowing power and are exercising that power. So, not really surprising to me.


Yeah, but it's not. Had to google around so bear with me.

In 2000 the median household income was 55,030. Today it's $59,000 and change. so median household income has net increased 7% in the last 17 years.

I plugged that $55,030 into a CPI inflation calculator an it would be equivalent to $81,172 in 2018 which is a 47% increase.

Based on the chart I posted, Mortgage debt is up from ~6T in 2,000 to ~15T in 2018 which is a whopping 150% increase in the same time span.

So my conclusion here is that mortgage debt would still outpace inflation adjusted household income which looks pretty bad, so lets look at median home prices to make sure.

In 2000 median home price was 119,000 and is 199,000 today, a 67% increase (net). So it seems that home prices are keeping up with inflation, but income is not meaning that a median household income is borrowing more for a median home than 17 years ago.

Feel free to blow my methodology up or check my math, I'd prefer to be dead wrong about this.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Zarniwoop » Wed Mar 21, 2018 3:59 pm

Your method seems ok but I question your median household income from 2000.

I found it was around $42,000.


Are you sure you didn’t grab an inflation adjusted number? (Most charts that show income over time are translated to real income)
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby The Outsider » Wed Mar 21, 2018 4:15 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:Your method seems ok but I question your median household income from 2000.

I found it was around $42,000.


Are you sure you didn’t grab an inflation adjusted number? (Most charts that show income over time are translated to real income)



I think MB's source was using contemporary dollars, although if it is statista they don't mention it. However another source with basically the same result for 2000 as MB's shows that it is using a constant of 2009 dollar value for all years.

That said, inflation has far outstripped wage growth since the 1980/early 1990s. It particularly shows in college tuition costs which have somehow risen above inflation rates.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Zarniwoop » Wed Mar 21, 2018 4:31 pm

I definitely agree that portions of expenses have risen a lot more than inflation ... those that you indicated are good examples. I like using the CPI better to talk about real purchasing power.



Back to the point about mortgages, as Buc2 eluddd to, in order to understand the difference in house payments as a percent of income from 2000 to present we also have to factor in interest rates. I don’t remember what the typical mortgage rate was in 2000 but it was much higher than now as the Fed Funds rate was over 5%
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby The Outsider » Wed Mar 21, 2018 4:45 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:I definitely agree that portions of expenses have risen a lot more than inflation ... those that you indicated are good examples. I like using the CPI better to talk about real purchasing power.



Back to the point about mortgages, as Buc2 eluddd to, in order to understand the difference in house payments as a percent of income from 2000 to present we also have to factor in interest rates. I don’t remember what the typical mortgage rate was in 2000 but it was much higher than now as the Fed Funds rate was over 5%



I'll agree with that. The mortgage rates are good right now. Still, even with low rates the more borrowing happening the more less resilient the economy becomes.

But, as I've said before, our economy is kind of like Who's Line is it Anyway? Where the rules are made up and the points don't matter.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Zarniwoop » Wed Mar 21, 2018 5:48 pm

The Outsider wrote:
But, as I've said before, our economy is kind of like Who's Line is it Anyway? Where the rules are made up and the points don't matter.


I got a chuckle out of this.


While I agree that there is randomness in our economy (particularly at the extremes), I think in terms of providing a good living, the tried and true method still applies today -- get educated (and continue pushing your knowledge in terms of outside of the job training), choose a field that is valued, work harder than others and refuse to be held down. Do those things and everything else will sort itself out in the long run
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Wed Mar 21, 2018 6:15 pm

Obligatory "obey your masters" comment here.

Sorry, I have to say something like that to get my Soros money.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby RedLeader » Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:05 pm

CFO Optimism Climbs to 22-Year High


"According to the results of the latest Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook survey, which ended March 2, more than 40% of U.S. companies say they plan to boost wages and 38% say will increase hiring in 2018 because of the recent tax cuts. About 36% will increase domestic investment and 31% will increase cash holdings. And, among companies with defined benefit pension plans, 29% say they will increase pension contributions."

http://ww2.cfo.com/the-economy/2018/03/ ... RTZA%3D%3D
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby deltbucs » Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:21 pm

Just came across this. Shouldn't really be surprising to anyone. Income inequality FTW!!

The 1% grabbed 82% of all wealth created in 2017
http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/21/news/ec ... index.html
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:15 am

Fed raised interest rates 1/4 percent.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/21/business/fed-interest-rate.html

At least all those mortgages we talked about yesterday are at the lower rate.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Zarniwoop » Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:05 am

Mountaineer Buc wrote:Fed raised interest rates 1/4 percent.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/21/business/fed-interest-rate.html

At least all those mortgages we talked about yesterday are at the lower rate.


Do you think they should have left it? If so why? What indicators are you basing it on.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:26 am

Zarniwoop wrote:
Mountaineer Buc wrote:Fed raised interest rates 1/4 percent.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/21/business/fed-interest-rate.html

At least all those mortgages we talked about yesterday are at the lower rate.


Do you think they should have left it? If so why? What indicators are you basing it on.

I'm not downing the decision. Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive, but also make saving more lucrative.

I'm much more concerned with wages keeping up with inflation.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby RedLeader » Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:55 pm

deltbucs wrote:Just came across this. Shouldn't really be surprising to anyone. Income inequality FTW!!

The 1% grabbed 82% of all wealth created in 2017
http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/21/news/ec ... index.html



It certainly shouldn't be surprising to most Americans.

According to the Global Rich List, a website that brings awareness to worldwide income disparities, an income of $32,400 a year will allow you to make the cut.

$32,400 amounts to roughly:

30,250 Euros
2 million Indian rupees, or
223,000 Chinese yuan

So if you’re an accountant, a registered nurse or even an elementary school teacher, congratulations. The average wage for any of these careers falls well within the top 1% worldwide.


Greedy bitches.



Link: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/050615/are-you-top-one-percent-world.asp









#someperspective
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby deltbucs » Thu Mar 22, 2018 10:53 pm

RedLeader wrote:
deltbucs wrote:Just came across this. Shouldn't really be surprising to anyone. Income inequality FTW!!

The 1% grabbed 82% of all wealth created in 2017
http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/21/news/ec ... index.html



It certainly shouldn't be surprising to most Americans.

According to the Global Rich List, a website that brings awareness to worldwide income disparities, an income of $32,400 a year will allow you to make the cut.

$32,400 amounts to roughly:

30,250 Euros
2 million Indian rupees, or
223,000 Chinese yuan

So if you’re an accountant, a registered nurse or even an elementary school teacher, congratulations. The average wage for any of these careers falls well within the top 1% worldwide.


Greedy bitches.



Link: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/050615/are-you-top-one-percent-world.asp









#someperspective

Whatever makes you feel better.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby PrimeMinister » Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:02 am

RedLeader wrote:
deltbucs wrote:Just came across this. Shouldn't really be surprising to anyone. Income inequality FTW!!

The 1% grabbed 82% of all wealth created in 2017
http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/21/news/ec ... index.html



It certainly shouldn't be surprising to most Americans.

According to the Global Rich List, a website that brings awareness to worldwide income disparities, an income of $32,400 a year will allow you to make the cut.

$32,400 amounts to roughly:

30,250 Euros
2 million Indian rupees, or
223,000 Chinese yuan

So if you’re an accountant, a registered nurse or even an elementary school teacher, congratulations. The average wage for any of these careers falls well within the top 1% worldwide.


Greedy bitches.



Link: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/050615/are-you-top-one-percent-world.asp









#someperspective


Thank God the cost of living is the same in India as it is in the US amirite?

Just comparing the largest metro areas in each:

Indices Difference Info
Consumer Prices in New York, NY are 218.45% higher than in Mumbai
Consumer Prices Including Rent in New York, NY are 271.65% higher than in Mumbai
Rent Prices in New York, NY are 353.47% higher than in Mumbai
Restaurant Prices in New York, NY are 289.03% higher than in Mumbai
Groceries Prices in New York, NY are 223.13% higher than in Mumbai
Local Purchasing Power in New York, NY is 35.35% higher than in Mumbai

......

Rent Per Month [ Edit ] [ Edit ]
Apartment (1 bedroom) in City Centre:
37,269.84 Rs (572.19 $) India
205,537.60 Rs (3,155.56 $) New York
+451.49 %


Still in that 1% though!
#someperspective
https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/c ... York%2C+NY
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:35 am

$32,400 for an individual is BARELY middle class in Florida.

In California and New York, it's relative poverty.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Buc2 » Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:50 am

PrimeMinister wrote:Thank God the cost of living is the same in India as it is in the US amirite?

Just comparing the largest metro areas in each:

Indices Difference Info
Consumer Prices in New York, NY are 218.45% higher than in Mumbai
Consumer Prices Including Rent in New York, NY are 271.65% higher than in Mumbai
Rent Prices in New York, NY are 353.47% higher than in Mumbai
Restaurant Prices in New York, NY are 289.03% higher than in Mumbai
Groceries Prices in New York, NY are 223.13% higher than in Mumbai
Local Purchasing Power in New York, NY is 35.35% higher than in Mumbai

......

Rent Per Month [ Edit ] [ Edit ]
Apartment (1 bedroom) in City Centre:
37,269.84 Rs (572.19 $) India
205,537.60 Rs (3,155.56 $) New York
+451.49 %


Still in that 1% though!
#someperspective
https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/c ... York%2C+NY


Some more perspective...
Average annual salary
NYC = $50,711 (combines all the boroughs)
Mumbai = $8,265 US (537,031 Rs)

Average NYC residential neighborhood
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Average Mumbai residential neighborhood
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Average NYC street scene
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Average Mumbai street scene
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Average NYC ghetto
Image

Average Mumbai ghetto
Image

Wealthy NYC neighborhood
Image

Wealthy Mumbai neighborhood
Image

Sorry, but I'll take NYC any day and twice on Sunday's.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:00 am

And your average Mumbai ghetto dweller would take the NYC ghetto any time.

That doesn't mean the NY ghetto dweller should be content.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Buc2 » Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:02 am

Mountaineer Buc wrote:And your average Mumbai ghetto dweller would take the NYC ghetto any time.

That doesn't mean the NY ghetto dweller should be content.

Correct. So...what?
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:06 am

Buc2 wrote:
Mountaineer Buc wrote:And your average Mumbai ghetto dweller would take the NYC ghetto any time.

That doesn't mean the NY ghetto dweller should be content.

Correct. So...what?

Wasn't that Red's point?

"Hey, barely middle class guy. You're in the global top 1% you should be happy."
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby DreadNaught » Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:12 am

Anyone discussing the Omnibus bill?

Passed the House and Senate.

Sounds like a win for the DC establishment. Rand Paul has a good tweetstorm about it yesterday. Crazy to read how much tax money we spend on nonsense overseas.

Hopefully Trump vetoes it. But I doubt it. It doesn't have the required 2/3 support to overturn a veto.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Zarniwoop » Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:32 am

DreadNaught wrote:Anyone discussing the Omnibus bill?

Passed the House and Senate.

Sounds like a win for the DC establishment. Rand Paul has a good tweetstorm about it yesterday. Crazy to read how much tax money we spend on nonsense overseas.

Hopefully Trump vetoes it. But I doubt it. It doesn't have the required 2/3 support to overturn a veto.



I linked to it yesterday. It’s an embarrassment
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby PrimeMinister » Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:38 am

Zarniwoop wrote:
DreadNaught wrote:Anyone discussing the Omnibus bill?

Passed the House and Senate.

Sounds like a win for the DC establishment. Rand Paul has a good tweetstorm about it yesterday. Crazy to read how much tax money we spend on nonsense overseas.

Hopefully Trump vetoes it. But I doubt it. It doesn't have the required 2/3 support to overturn a veto.



I linked to it yesterday. It’s an embarrassment


Unfortunately it's embarrassments like this that passes for non-partisan progress in Washington.
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Re: US ECONOMY News and Discussion Thread

Postby Deuce » Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:39 am

PrimeMinister wrote:Rent Per Month [ Edit ] [ Edit ]
Apartment (1 bedroom) in City Centre:
37,269.84 Rs (572.19 $) India
205,537.60 Rs (3,155.56 $) New York
+451.49 %


Still in that 1% though!
#someperspective
https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/c ... York%2C+NY[/quote]

I make a bit more than the $32,400 but does the Indian equivalent of me own a car? Rent a 1,300 sqft townhouse (with partner)? Is his house stocked with TVs in every room, a gaming system, and furniture? Does he have all of this and save for retirement?

I'd guess no.

EDIT: I messed up the quote...oh well.
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