Donald Trump vs North Korea

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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby beardmcdoug » Thu Aug 10, 2017 2:24 pm

My .02:

All this saber rattling is fine and necessary. Kim Jong Un talks ****. We need to talk **** to him back so we don't look like *******. We are still holding onto pax americana by a pussyhair, and we need to keep it like that

As a few have said here, it's hard to imagine NK swinging first. And that plays into our hands.

The USA's move is no move. We just stand back and talk **** and let time do its thing. We don't need to up the ante with some crazy sanctions, or military action, just sit back. (and maybe pressure china to stop supporting, but nothing over the top)

The key here is culture. NK is so starkly different, culture-wise than the rest of the world, and that gap is going to work in our favor. Over the past several years, NK citizens have gotten more and more clever at sneaking USA/outside culture (movies, books, TV shows,etc) into NK. The "culture wall" is leaking like a sieve and will only get worse for the NK government. When NK citizens are shown what the rest of the world is like, the freedoms we have, the high quality entertainment, the economic opportunities, it is going to eat at the citizens. It already has start to eat at them. This spread of USA culture into NK is inevitable. You simply cannot stop it at this point in time. The gap between what these NK people will be watching, and what they will be living will be enough to eventually push them into revolt mode, which will destabilize the country and government, and the NK problem will be solved for us. Their only option will be to assimilate or jump off the deep end and swing first, which is assured death. They will assimilate. They will be a mini (and I mean mini) neutered China by 2050.

So our move is just to sit back and let NK eat itself from the inside. It's fool-proof. They either lose the long-game culture war, in which they a)adapt their government and rejoin the negotiation table, or b) experience a revolution from their citizens.... or they get desperate and swing first, give us casus belli and then we wipe them off the map and nobody can blame us.
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby NavyBuc » Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:25 pm

Most any missile NKO shoots off is going to get shot down. The main concern would be South Korea and whether those would get shot down. But if they ever went after South Korea, then the U.S. would unleash hell on them.

It's funny to hear Kim talk tough and say they would destroy us. How? With what air power? They brag about these missiles coming at us but they would get shot down in a couple minutes. It takes 30 minutes to get here.

I don't agree with Trump on a lot of things, but I do agree with the rhetoric he's using right now. He needs to talk tough with Korea and warn them and be ready to hit them if need be. It's better if Korea makes the first move because the whole world would come down on them, not just the U.S.....and the first move would fail. But Korea has been ignored way too long. Obama and Bush ignored him. Clinton talked just as tough as Trump has but then ignored them. This is like letting a tooth rot for so long and ignoring going to the dentist. Let it go long enough and eventually it's going to be so painful you have to take care of it.

My personal prediction is there's going to be war of some kind. I don't think it'll get nuclear. But I do think Kim is going to blink first and shoot off a missile that is going to narrowly miss a country, whether it's Korea or Guam, and it's going to prompt Trump to fire back and not narrowly miss. I think there's no shot of diplomacy. I do know for a fact that the U.S. is getting ready for the worst case. Ship activity is the highest I've ever seen since I've been in the Navy.
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby beardmcdoug » Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:39 pm

NavyBuc wrote:Most any missile NKO shoots off is going to get shot down. The main concern would be South Korea and whether those would get shot down. But if they ever went after South Korea, then the U.S. would unleash hell on them.

It's funny to hear Kim talk tough and say they would destroy us. How? With what air power? They brag about these missiles coming at us but they would get shot down in a couple minutes. It takes 30 minutes to get here.

I don't agree with Trump on a lot of things, but I do agree with the rhetoric he's using right now. He needs to talk tough with Korea and warn them and be ready to hit them if need be. It's better if Korea makes the first move because the whole world would come down on them, not just the U.S.....and the first move would fail. But Korea has been ignored way too long. Obama and Bush ignored him. Clinton talked just as tough as Trump has but then ignored them. This is like letting a tooth rot for so long and ignoring going to the dentist. Let it go long enough and eventually it's going to be so painful you have to take care of it.

My personal prediction is there's going to be war of some kind. I don't think it'll get nuclear. But I do think Kim is going to blink first and shoot off a missile that is going to narrowly miss a country, whether it's Korea or Guam, and it's going to prompt Trump to fire back and not narrowly miss. I think there's no shot of diplomacy. I do know for a fact that the U.S. is getting ready for the worst case. Ship activity is the highest I've ever seen since I've been in the Navy.


I'm not so sure of that - the success rate of our missile-kill defense systems recently tested at about 55% - which, if you consider that NK would probably fire off a barrage, and include dummies in that barrage, it might not be guaranteed that one or two don't make it...

I agree with your concern about SK - they'd get fucked in the butt in any war scenario, and considering what a regional ally they are to us, I think that's gotta be one of our top concerns
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby Buc2 » Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:43 pm

So long as numbnuts in the north doesn't send a nuke their way, I wouldn't underestimate SK's ability to fight for itself.
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Thu Aug 10, 2017 4:37 pm

Buc2 wrote:So long as numbnuts in the north doesn't send a nuke their way, I wouldn't underestimate SK's ability to fight for itself.

SK has an army of pretty tough hombres from what I've heard, but that doesn't negate the damage NK could do to SK in a conventional battle let alone a nuclear one.

http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=north-korea

For example, NK has some five thousand fixed, towed, and self propelled artillery along the DMZ. You drop the first JDAM and they start shelling Seoul and Camp Humphreys at a rate of a ten thousand rounds a minute killing tens of thousands of Koreans and US Military in the first few hours. Add the 5,000 tanks to the target mix and it would take a combined military effort to fight off this onslaught and retake the initiative. It's akin to NK holding a gun to Seoul's head and daring us to make a move.

It would ultimately, IMO be a successful campaign for us, but it would take so long to decimate their military capability to attack civillians that the victory would be at an enormous cost of life.
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby Corsair » Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:08 pm

From Trump's phone call with Guam governor.

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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby WalterGronkite » Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:37 pm

Probably should investigate this Guam and DT collusion.
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby Corsair » Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:52 pm

Not surprised this went over your head.

The soft skulls are out tonight.
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby WalterGronkite » Fri Aug 11, 2017 10:12 pm

explain to me what you are thinking in that crazy head of yours.
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby real bucs fan » Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:05 am

Trump needs to speak softly.
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:27 pm

I find it irksome that China had to step in and be the adult in the room. I'm glad they did, but it shouldn't have to be that way. we just happen to have a President who colossally sucks at being President.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/15/politics/china-north-korea-us-mattis-tillerson/index.html
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby RedLeader » Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:03 pm

Mountaineer Buc wrote:I find it irksome that China had to step in and be the adult in the room. I'm glad they did, but it shouldn't have to be that way. we just happen to have a President who colossally sucks at being President.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/15/politics/china-north-korea-us-mattis-tillerson/index.html


One word: sanctions

This is China basically driving up to NK's house in an Ice Cream truck and telling them to stop 'playing with their emotions'.. if you know what I mean.
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby bucfanclw » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:53 pm



Di...did we just get "served"?
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby Corsair » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:45 am

NK has successfully tested a hydrogen bomb.
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby RedLeader » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:09 am

And here.. we.. go.














This should be quick...
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby Corsair » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:24 pm

Reminder: The U.S. currently does not have an Ambassador to South Korea.
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby Corsair » Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:13 pm

#breaking S. Korea defense minister "willing to review" plan for redeployment of tactical US nuclear weapons to Korea for 1st time in 26 yrs
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby acaton » Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:26 am

Perhaps we should just take a breath and relax a bit here. I mean Kim's first strike at the mainland US would likely be in or near the west coast. If that happens is that really all that bad? Really.
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby mightyleemoon » Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:33 am

acaton wrote:Perhaps we should just take a breath and relax a bit here. I mean Kim's first strike at the mainland US would likely be in or near the west coast. If that happens is that really all that bad? Really.


This was brought up last night. How long would a missile take to get to the US? An hour? I don't know much about our anti-missile tech, but that seems like a lot of time to take it down. Anyone here know much about that sort of thing?

(...heads off to google...)
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby beardmcdoug » Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:40 am

mightyleemoon wrote:
acaton wrote:Perhaps we should just take a breath and relax a bit here. I mean Kim's first strike at the mainland US would likely be in or near the west coast. If that happens is that really all that bad? Really.


This was brought up last night. How long would a missile take to get to the US? An hour? I don't know much about our anti-missile tech, but that seems like a lot of time to take it down. Anyone here know much about that sort of thing?

(...heads off to google...)


One tidbit I caught a couple weeks back (because I was thinking the same thing, "hell, we'll have a pretty solid window to shoot the thing down on its way over here") - and I believe it was on NPR, so relatively trustworthy source - they had a strategic defense guy on there talking about how, right now, our THAAD missile defense system has about a 55% hit rate, and that in the event that NK launches an ICBM, they'd likely litter the sky with dummy rockets along with it (them), and it would be a very tough scenario to defend

somebody feel free to tell me I have no clue what I'm talking about, because its sort of a grim picture
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby mightyleemoon » Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:54 am

Found this article for those curious...

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/09/08/wh ... at-us.html

In the 90s they made it seem like we'd be shooting down rockets with lazers from space by 2020. THAAD isn't that...but it seems fairly capable.
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby beardmcdoug » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:02 pm

mightyleemoon wrote:Found this article for those curious...

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/09/08/wh ... at-us.html

In the 90s they made it seem like we'd be shooting down rockets with lazers from space by 2020. THAAD isn't that...but it seems fairly capable.


considering our $50-70 Billion a year in "black" budget defense spending - the wild card is that we actually can. I highly doubt we want to show our hand swatting the NK fly
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby Zarniwoop » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:06 pm

beardmcdoug wrote:
considering our $50-70 Billion a year in "black" budget defense spending



That seem more like a monthly figure, not an annual one!!!
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby beardmcdoug » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:22 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:
beardmcdoug wrote:
considering our $50-70 Billion a year in "black" budget defense spending



That seem more like a monthly figure, not an annual one!!!


lol billion!

~10% of our yearly defense budget

Also, for reference, it cost 2.5 billion over 10 years (250 million per year - or 1/200th of black budget spending) to put a working, movable high tech car on another planet
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby Zarniwoop » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:23 pm

beardmcdoug wrote:
Zarniwoop wrote:

That seem more like a monthly figure, not an annual one!!!


lol billion!

~10% of our yearly defense budget

Also, for reference, it cost 2.5 billion over 10 years (250 million per year - or 1/200th of black budget spending) to put a working, movable high tech car on another planet


that movie you had me watch said something like a quadrillion zillion dollars a week!!!!
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby beardmcdoug » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:26 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:
beardmcdoug wrote:
lol billion!

~10% of our yearly defense budget

Also, for reference, it cost 2.5 billion over 10 years (250 million per year - or 1/200th of black budget spending) to put a working, movable high tech car on another planet


that movie you had me watch said something like a quadrillion zillion dollars a week!!!!


LOL
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby deltbucs » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:31 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:
beardmcdoug wrote:
lol billion!

~10% of our yearly defense budget

Also, for reference, it cost 2.5 billion over 10 years (250 million per year - or 1/200th of black budget spending) to put a working, movable high tech car on another planet


that movie you had me watch said something like a quadrillion zillion dollars a week!!!!

What movie was that?
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby beardmcdoug » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:41 pm

deltbucs wrote:
Zarniwoop wrote:
that movie you had me watch said something like a quadrillion zillion dollars a week!!!!

What movie was that?


http://buczone.com/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=3355
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby Zarniwoop » Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:04 am

Chinese banks are allegedly no longer giving loans to North Korea

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/09/21 ... llion.html



If it's true , and I'll doubt we will ever know that, it's a good step
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Re: Donald Trump vs North Korea

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:25 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:Chinese banks are allegedly no longer giving loans to North Korea

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/09/21 ... llion.html



If it's true , and I'll doubt we will ever know that, it's a good step


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