The Robots Are Coming

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The Robots Are Coming

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Thu Nov 12, 2015 7:22 pm

Could a robot do your job? Could software?

As an accountant, I can assure you that my profession's days are numbered. Much of the expertise my job requires is fulfilled by MS Excel. I just have to be smart enough to put the right numbers in the right cells and viola! Financial statements. How long until my long hours of being the interface between the software that collects the data and the software that consolidates the data is replaced by a software upgrade? I bet its within my lifetime.

Bill Gates thinks so.

http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gat ... obs-2014-3

We already have touchscreen kiosks at fast food joints, and self checkout at most retail stores. They are working on self driving 18 wheelers for long haul trucking and your car can parallel park itself. In the military we already have drones that can linger over the battlefield for hours for air superiority and I suspect drone sentries and robot tanks are not far away. How long until the Navy has drone ships to patrol for submarines and drone submarines to patrol for those drones? Some guy at Grumman is dreaming that **** up right now. Somebody just developed a robot that can lay brick and build a house in a matter of hours.

The pilot for your airliner taxis the plane, takes off, lands, taxis to the gate and thanks you for flying Delta. The plane flies itself after a certain point and has been doing so for quite some time. If I'm not mistaken, the plane can land itself if need be nowadays.

So the point is that our technology is creating more and more opportunities for automation to perform tasks that people do today. Oxford says that nearly half of ALL jobs will be lost to automation in 20 years. They should have skipped the will be and gone with could be and spared us the hyperbole, but nevertheless the trend is there.

How do you have an economy when there is no work and thus no income? The welfare state cannot provide for half of everybody particularly when there are no taxpayers, so what happens?

How do you prepare your children for such an economy?
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby bucfanclw » Thu Nov 12, 2015 7:47 pm

I posted a thread on this subject a little while back but I don't think most people understand the importance of it. I'll throw this video here as well. It's a very well done explanation of it for those that want to learn more.

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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Caballero » Thu Nov 12, 2015 8:03 pm

Mountaineer Buc wrote:Could a robot do your job? Could software?

As an accountant, I can assure you that my profession's days are numbered. Much of the expertise my job requires is fulfilled by MS Excel. I just have to be smart enough to put the right numbers in the right cells and viola! Financial statements. How long until my long hours of being the interface between the software that collects the data and the software that consolidates the data is replaced by a software upgrade? I bet its within my lifetime.



There are too many critical decisions on accounting practices to allow the accounting practice to be completely automated. Sometimes the same exact invoice can be coded multiple different ways depending on current status of the company and how that work is being applied to operations. Try automating that and it will cost companies more money than hiring staff to make those decisions. It's not going to happen in your lifetime.

For example, we coded some G&G seismic costs recently that would have normally been coded at a 15% tax rate. But the tricky way that the data was acquired allowed us to code it at a 2% rate (we think it will get by the auditors). That was a 2 million dollar charge. Saving 13% on that is a savings of $260,000 usd just for that one entry.
Last edited by Caballero on Thu Nov 12, 2015 8:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Thu Nov 12, 2015 8:08 pm

Thanks for posting that. I've seen it before but was happy to watch it again.

They already have a name for this...The Post Scarcity Economy.

When all things can be produced in abundance for little cost with little human effort. Demand for labor plummets.

Then what?
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Thu Nov 12, 2015 8:11 pm

Caballero wrote:
Mountaineer Buc wrote:Could a robot do your job? Could software?

As an accountant, I can assure you that my profession's days are numbered. Much of the expertise my job requires is fulfilled by MS Excel. I just have to be smart enough to put the right numbers in the right cells and viola! Financial statements. How long until my long hours of being the interface between the software that collects the data and the software that consolidates the data is replaced by a software upgrade? I bet its within my lifetime.



There are too many critical decisions on accounting practices to allow the accounting practice to be completely automated. Sometimes the same exact invoice can be coded multiple different ways depending on current status of the company and how that work is being applied to operations. Try automating that and it will cost companies more money than hiring staff to make those decisions. It's not going to happen in your lifetime.


You need to watch that video. Simple binary logic can do the things you are saying. Input/output, Yes/No, If/Then decisions can be made with software in multiple combinations.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby bucfanclw » Thu Nov 12, 2015 8:12 pm

Caballero wrote:
Mountaineer Buc wrote:Could a robot do your job? Could software?

As an accountant, I can assure you that my profession's days are numbered. Much of the expertise my job requires is fulfilled by MS Excel. I just have to be smart enough to put the right numbers in the right cells and viola! Financial statements. How long until my long hours of being the interface between the software that collects the data and the software that consolidates the data is replaced by a software upgrade? I bet its within my lifetime.



There are too many critical decisions on accounting practices to allow the accounting practice to be completely automated. Sometimes the same exact invoice can be coded multiple different ways depending on current status of the company and how that work is being applied to operations. Try automating that and it will cost companies more money than hiring staff to make those decisions. It's not going to happen in your lifetime.

Automation bots could take over accounting fairly easily. In fact, due to the costs involved in accounting, businesses are more motivated to replace that labor than low wage earners. Even if it's not 100% perfect (neither are humans by the way), the costs to correct are substantially less than paying for an accounting department. So for you you to think it won't be replaced by automation any time soon means you either aren't in accounting, or you aren't any good at it.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Caballero » Thu Nov 12, 2015 8:15 pm

bucfanclw wrote:
Caballero wrote:
There are too many critical decisions on accounting practices to allow the accounting practice to be completely automated. Sometimes the same exact invoice can be coded multiple different ways depending on current status of the company and how that work is being applied to operations. Try automating that and it will cost companies more money than hiring staff to make those decisions. It's not going to happen in your lifetime.

Automation bots could take over accounting fairly easily. In fact, due to the costs involved in accounting, businesses are more motivated to replace that labor than low wage earners. Even if it's not 100% perfect (neither are humans by the way), the costs to correct are substantially less than paying for an accounting department. So for you you to think it won't be replaced by automation any time soon means you either aren't in accounting, or you aren't any good at it.


You don't know what you are talking about.

It's pretty easy to tell which jobs can be automated. Working as an expat, I know that foreign countries will not allow expats to be in certain positions. Why? Because the locals can do those jobs. Those jobs that the locals can do can be automated. The jobs held by expats are not likely going to be automated within our lifetime. Accounting manager is one of those positions that will not be automated. Piss ant accounting data entry clerk can be automated. But the review of those entries is not going to be automated.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Thu Nov 12, 2015 8:17 pm

And how many people worldwide are accounting managers?

BLS says there are 1.3 million people in the US employed as accountants and auditors. That's 1.3 million people out of work. Boom.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Caballero » Thu Nov 12, 2015 8:24 pm

The out of work accounting data entry clerks can get jobs with the companies providing the software that replaced them. Those software companies employ a lot of people and they are constantly evolving and moving forward.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby bucfanclw » Thu Nov 12, 2015 8:33 pm

And what jobs do you see them taking at the software company that already proved they aren't needed any more? And yes, an accounting manager isn't needed. Just give the software to the business owner and the entire accounting dept goes bye bye.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Caballero » Thu Nov 12, 2015 8:37 pm

bucfanclw wrote:And what jobs do you see them taking at the software company that already proved they aren't needed any more? And yes, an accounting manager isn't needed. Just give the software to the business owner and the entire accounting dept goes bye bye.


You have obviously never worked in accounting. You are wrong.

I do agree with Mountaneer that there are not as many managers as data entry, but those managers will not be replaced by machines unless the entire tax system is changed worldwide. Nimble minded accountants save companies millions.

You also dont understand those software companies (obviously). Those softwares need consultants to install and configure and to handle problems and bugs with the software. They also upgrade to keep up with technology. It's a never ending process.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby bucfanclw » Thu Nov 12, 2015 8:42 pm

I will tell you what I do work in... Automation. If you really believe you have the mental capacity to out perform the millions of calculations that a processor can every second to find the best tax outcome as well as risk assessment, then this conversation will not go anywhere. Those that refuse to look to the future are doomed to be left in the past.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby bucfanclw » Thu Nov 12, 2015 8:47 pm

Caballero wrote:
bucfanclw wrote:And what jobs do you see them taking at the software company that already proved they aren't needed any more? And yes, an accounting manager isn't needed. Just give the software to the business owner and the entire accounting dept goes bye bye.


You have obviously never worked in accounting. You are wrong.

I do agree with Mountaneer that there are not as many managers as data entry, but those managers will not be replaced by machines unless the entire tax system is changed worldwide. Nimble minded accountants save companies millions.

You also dont understand those software companies (obviously). Those softwares need consultants to install and configure and to handle problems and bugs with the software. They also upgrade to keep up with technology. It's a never ending process.

And we're not talking about software in the traditional sense. This is not defined parameters where you put in data A and it spits out result B. We're talking about automation bots that are shown a desired outcome and learn how best to achieve it. There is no patches. There is no update installation. But you don't quite understand the technology, so you should probably watch the video.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Thu Nov 12, 2015 8:54 pm

clw bringin da HEAT!
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Thu Nov 12, 2015 8:55 pm

Java, Republicans are already pushing for a simplified tax system. Flat taxation. The nimble minded accounting manager can lose his job with an act of Congress.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Nano » Thu Nov 12, 2015 11:17 pm

What happens when the robots decide they feel they're underpaid and overworked?
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby mdb1958 » Fri Nov 13, 2015 6:23 am

Nano wrote:What happens when the robots decide they feel they're underpaid and overworked?


They become lawnmowers. 8-)
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Buc2 » Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:18 am

Mountaineer Buc wrote:Thanks for posting that. I've seen it before but was happy to watch it again.

They already have a name for this...The Post Scarcity Economy.

When all things can be produced in abundance for little cost with little human effort. Demand for labor plummets.

Then what?


Obviously things will have to change for displaced humans. When no one has a job because their jobs are automated, then no one will be able to buy the products companies sell. So something will have to happen that will supplement those job loses are there may very well be a worldwide uprising. Perhaps we're heading towards a real Logan's Run type of society.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Wenchy » Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:40 am

What about right-brain types of careers, like artists, writers, actors, etc.? Can true creativity be automated?
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:51 am

Wenchy wrote:What about right-brain types of careers, like artists, writers, actors, etc.? Can true creativity be automated?


They can be simulated. Look at Plinko.

But in all seriousness, we can't all be painters, sculptors, and poets and have an economy based on that.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby mightyleemoon » Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:52 am

Wenchy wrote:What about right-brain types of careers, like artists, writers, actors, etc.? Can true creativity be automated?


There was a pretty great video out there somewhere that showed a program creating Nickelback sounding songs with just a few inputs from the user. Like, you would give it a key and a tempo and it would spit out a random, newly created song that sounds like something Nickelback would write. (complete with chords, bass lines, vocal melody, and drums) It was all kinds of genius. I need to go find that video again.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Wenchy » Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:53 am

Can you really consider Nickelback to be an example of true creativity?
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:57 am

Buc2 wrote:
Mountaineer Buc wrote:Thanks for posting that. I've seen it before but was happy to watch it again.

They already have a name for this...The Post Scarcity Economy.

When all things can be produced in abundance for little cost with little human effort. Demand for labor plummets.

Then what?


Obviously things will have to change for displaced humans. When no one has a job because their jobs are automated, then no one will be able to buy the products companies sell. So something will have to happen that will supplement those job loses are there may very well be a worldwide uprising. Perhaps we're heading towards a real Logan's Run type of society.


It's not going to be that dystopian. There is still going to be work because there is still going to be demand for food, clothing, and shelter. Therefore, there will still be commerce. Even Soviet Style Communism had commerce.

The issue is that if there is little to no demand for labor, people are not able to sell their labor to earn a living. Regression back into an agrarian society is implausible and due to automation, unnecessary. So, how do people make money? We can't all be prostitutes.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby mightyleemoon » Fri Nov 13, 2015 10:26 am

Wenchy wrote:Can you really consider Nickelback to be an example of true creativity?


According to the program that can write their songs for them...no.

But...even though I don't care for them myself...I'd still say the majority of the population wouldn't be able to write and perform as...competently. I dunno...they're easy to make fun of. But...apparently...somebody likes it. And that's the thing about creativity...there's absolutely no right or wrong and merit is very subjective.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby bucfanclw » Fri Nov 13, 2015 10:33 am

Wenchy wrote:What about right-brain types of careers, like artists, writers, actors, etc.? Can true creativity be automated?

Look up music by Emily Howell. She's a great composer that has produced tons of classical style tracks that many have called "moving" and "emotional".

She's also a robot.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby mightyleemoon » Fri Nov 13, 2015 10:37 am

bucfanclw wrote:
Wenchy wrote:What about right-brain types of careers, like artists, writers, actors, etc.? Can true creativity be automated?

Look up music by Emily Howell. She's a great composer that has produced tons of classical style tracks that many have called "moving" and "emotional".

She's also a robot.


Well...it could be said that whoever programmed the robot would be the actual composer since they're the ones who gave it the framework and instructions.

Totally random music is pretty hard to listen to. If this Emily robot is moving and emotional...she's been programmed with some structure and rules based on theory. So...can programming a robot be considered a creative endeavour?
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Buc2 » Fri Nov 13, 2015 10:38 am

mightyleemoon wrote:
Wenchy wrote:Can you really consider Nickelback to be an example of true creativity?


According to the program that can write their songs for them...no.

But...even though I don't care for them myself...I'd still say the majority of the population wouldn't be able to write and perform as...competently. I dunno...they're easy to make fun of. But...apparently...somebody likes it. And that's the thing about creativity...there's absolutely no right or wrong and merit is very subjective.


Continuing this Nickelback stuff... I find it funny that everyone, and I mean, everyone, says they hate Nickelback. If they are so hated, then how does this happen...

Nickelback is one of the most commercially successful Canadian groups, having sold more than 50 million albums worldwide and ranking as the eleventh best-selling music act, and the second best-selling foreign act in the U.S. of the 2000s, behind The Beatles. Billboard ranks them the most successful rock group of the decade; their song "How You Remind Me" was listed as the best-selling rock song of the decade and the fourth best-selling album of the decade. They were listed number seven on the Billboard top artist of the decade, with four albums listed on the Billboard top albums of the decade.


More...
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Wenchy » Fri Nov 13, 2015 10:39 am

bucfanclw wrote:
Wenchy wrote:What about right-brain types of careers, like artists, writers, actors, etc.? Can true creativity be automated?

Look up music by Emily Howell. She's a great composer that has produced tons of classical style tracks that many have called "moving" and "emotional".
She's also a robot.


I think music is more easily replicated than say, writing or acting. I mean, there are tons of electronic music guys out there who perform with a Mac.

mightyleemoon wrote:But...even though I don't care for them myself...I'd still say the majority of the population wouldn't be able to write and perform as...competently. I dunno...they're easy to make fun of. But...apparently...somebody likes it. And that's the thing about creativity...there's absolutely no right or wrong and merit is very subjective.


That's very true--what you said about subjectivity. And I actually like some Nickelback songs, but they obviously hit on a formula and used it to make a lot of number one hits. The same could be said of the Beatles, whom I also like. Their early stuff was pretty elementary, so I'm guessing the program you're referring to could also easily replicate their sound.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Buc2 » Fri Nov 13, 2015 10:46 am

Mountaineer Buc wrote:
Buc2 wrote:
Obviously things will have to change for displaced humans. When no one has a job because their jobs are automated, then no one will be able to buy the products companies sell. So something will have to happen that will supplement those job loses are there may very well be a worldwide uprising. Perhaps we're heading towards a real Logan's Run type of society.


It's not going to be that dystopian. There is still going to be work because there is still going to be demand for food, clothing, and shelter. Therefore, there will still be commerce. Even Soviet Style Communism had commerce.

The issue is that if there is little to no demand for labor, people are not able to sell their labor to earn a living. Regression back into an agrarian society is implausible and due to automation, unnecessary. So, how do people make money? We can't all be prostitutes.


Well, if what you and clw are saying comes to pass, such an automated, and soon to be, jobless society cannot possibly function without some sort of new, currently unknown job source springing up to replace those job losses. Otherwise, the only hope for humanity is if millions (billions?) of people die. Grim would be excited.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Wenchy » Fri Nov 13, 2015 10:51 am

Buc2 wrote:
Mountaineer Buc wrote:
It's not going to be that dystopian. There is still going to be work because there is still going to be demand for food, clothing, and shelter. Therefore, there will still be commerce. Even Soviet Style Communism had commerce.

The issue is that if there is little to no demand for labor, people are not able to sell their labor to earn a living. Regression back into an agrarian society is implausible and due to automation, unnecessary. So, how do people make money? We can't all be prostitutes.


Well, if what you and clw are saying comes to pass, such an automated, and soon to be, jobless society cannot possibly function without some sort of new, currently unknown job source springing up to replace those job losses. Otherwise, the only hope for humanity is if millions (billions?) of people die. Grim would be excited.


Yes, what will happen to those 5 million illegal immigrants' newly found jobs?
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