The Robots Are Coming

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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby RedLeader » Sat Apr 15, 2017 1:55 am

beardmcdoug wrote:
RedLeader wrote:
The best thing the government can do is get out of the way... I agree - most certainly, there will have to be a market evolution, but, quite honestly - and this may seem oversimplified - but I trust that the people will figure it out.

So some of us may have to learn how to make things again... so what. Who the **** wants to really spend their life atrophied behind a ****ing truck anyway? Or locking your wrists up crunching someone elses numbers day in and day out? Who's to say machines won't free most folks from their tired mundane existence so they can pursue true happiness instead?

Heck, we may see the return of the artisan, the craftsman, the smith, the maker, the poet, the thinker.. the BUILDER! You'll see a entirely new market for the hand-made... We could be on the precipice of human enlightenment, here, people!I ;)

In the end, if we fail to evolve in time, and everyone is replaced and out of work... what the **** are all the robots going to be making anyway.. and for whom?!

Bottom line, you either lack faith in the people and the free market (somewhat surprising for you), or you're looking for someway to pay your house note. Either way, letting the government put every American citizen on its payroll (read: 'teet') is a lazy way to go about it.


beardmcdoug wrote:I don't think you have the slightest idea about the complexity of the problems society faces, and what a positive role the federal government, or any government actually plays.


beardmcdoug wrote:All you hear about is "waste this" and "corrupt that", which is absolutely true, but guess what - those are human problems, not inherently governmental problems.


beardmcdoug wrote:As much faith as I have in the collective, I have zero faith in the individual...


beardmcdoug wrote:We are inherently flawed, as human beings...


beardmcdoug wrote:People deserve blame...


beardmcdoug wrote:People are ****ing ****, end of the day...


beardmcdoug wrote:Humans run governments...



beardmcdoug wrote:...what a positive role the federal government, or any government actually plays.



You're trolling, right?


































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Whoa. Nevermind... Guess you're not.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby bucfanclw » Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:31 am

So you don't think a system of government is a good thing?
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby beardmcdoug » Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:39 pm

ok let me be more clear:

The people that are **** also run corporations, not just governments.

Even though governments end up doing shitty things because they are influenced by shitty people, doesn't mean that the system of "government" is worth doing away with; and further, even though governments do shitty things because of shitty people - it is corporations' shitty things (done by shitty people) that have a worse effect on this country. Overall, it is paramount to maintain enough nuance to examine and be critical of the individual rather than the system though.

The only way to keep shitty people from doing shitty things, either in governments or corporations, is to understand the human aspect, which is prone to shitty, selfish behavior, and create a rigid framework of rules and goals, to avoid the pitfalls of individualistic behavior - especially when we're talking about coming up with a plan for accounting for the fundamental breakdown in the laissez-faire capitalistic economic system, which is driven by inherently individualistic actions
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Zarniwoop » Wed Apr 19, 2017 12:00 pm

Just getting around to this...I enjoyed reading it and ultimately I agree with your basic premise that people are selfish...after all, we are animals...all animals need a degree of selfishness simply to survive in nature. As you might guess though I don't agree with either a.) the mechanism that you think can best limit the negative influence of the human race's selfishness b.) the folks you think have the biggest negative impact on society.



beardmcdoug wrote:
dude I hate to say this, but just like a lot of the other "guv'ment needs to get aht the way!" guys, I don't think you have the slightest idea about the complexity of the problems society faces


I expect better than this from you....this is a stupid way to start a conversation.


beardmcdoug wrote:, and what a positive role the federal government, or any government actually plays. All you hear about is "waste this" and "corrupt that",


I'm one of the biggest anti-"guv'ment" people on the board and I would never make a claim that the federal government plays no positive role in society. My entire philosophical system is that we need the government to help ensure individual liberty...that's the most important role in the world...and I think the government can do that very well...whether it be ensuring our liberty against foreign or domestic enemies...the government is the one who has the best ability to do this.

beardmcdoug wrote: which is absolutely true, but guess what - those are human problems, not inherently governmental problems. You say there's a propensity for inefficiency with government? that is a manifestation of human failures. Humans run governments. And if they are corrupt actors within a framework system, you cannot absolve some individual's actions just because he's acting within that framework. You anti-"guv'ment" guys are so supportive of self-determination and want people to be held accountable for their actions when it comes to "taking hand outs", but you seem to have no problem with giving people free passes just because "they're politicians". That's a cop out to me. That's defeatist. People deserve blame. Because when you begin absolving people of their sins, just because the system they're in, you stop being critical about what actually works. You then give the system a free pass


I'm not entirely sure what point you are trying to make...I want to hold everyone (business people and governmental folks alike) accountable for their actions. I give no pass to anyone. I don't think every single politician is a crook no more than I think every business person is a thief. As I noted above, I think government plays a VITAL role in our society. I want the governmental influence over my life to be LIMITED just as I want Apple, Exxon, Etc to have LIMITED influence over my life.


beardmcdoug wrote:You want the government to get out of the way? Guess what. They did. For the past 40 years, we've had unabated capitalism in this country, while the world has reached its fully-discovered, zero-sum form, and what did we get from this wild west attitude towards the economy? We got 2 bail outs. THAT YOU PAID FOR. We got the most obscene levels of wealth concentration ever seen in human history. And thanks to the fact that the world is now a zero-sum game, that wealth is essentially taken from you; its why jobs are ****, its why they pay ****, its why this generation will be the first generation to EVER make less money by the time they're 30 than the previous generation did. It's why nobody can ****ing buy a house, its why mothers have to go back to work 2 weeks after giving birth, and cut 75% of their check just to pay for the child care that's going to watch their child. The unabated capitalism, the worshiping of absolute greed in this country has fucked the rest of this country over.


1.) We are nothing close to unabated capitalism, nor will we ever be. We have more regulations than ever before. In many instances we have less competition then we have ever had before.

2.) We are no where close to a zero sum game. Our GDP per person is growing nearly as fast as it ever has in the past. We don't live in a world where one thing must always be traded off with another. We are as innovative as ever. And we all benefit from it.


beardmcdoug wrote:You say "government needs to get out of the way", but do you really know what that means? That means no regulations. That means no tariffs. That means no protection for the American people.


That's a ridiculous statement. If you say that all limited government people MUST inherently want no government, than I could just as easily say that all proponents of government intervention want total government intervention.



beardmcdoug wrote: You. Have. To. Realize. This. We are ALL tethered to eachother, and no amount of absolution of government (which, sorry, anarchy is not a ****ing way of living, and if you thought about it seriously, you'd know that too), will ever bring us back to that untethered existence. You cannot put the toothpaste back in the tube at this point. Everything you rely on every single moment of your life is too complex. And if you want to say "well not me" - fine, then every moment of every other one of the 7 billion people on this planet. And some ****er in Japan or some guy in France likes his life way too much to just hit "stop" on the game. It's not stopping. It's only getting more complex. We are only getting more connected.


Of course many things that I do will impact others...just as what they do impact me. This has always been the case. It will always be the case. I don't think this is support either way for more/less government intervention.



beardmcdoug wrote:I get your idea of "letting the market figure it out". I love success. I'm not interested in limiting success. But we have to recognize that we already play in a game that founded on a framework of rules. All I'm suggesting is that EVERYBODY be held to those rules, so that the spoils of winning this game do not allow these individual actors to grow beyond the game and allow them to exist, and even more, tilt the field like some giants looking down on a tabletop game. I do have faith in the overall amoeba of human existence, of figuring out what works. But I just have a huge issue with the reality of what you "screw the guv'ment" people are proposing. As much faith as I have in the collective, I have zero faith in the individual. And we have seen over the past 50 years or so, the co-opting of the american dream by probably a total of 5,000 people, who have essentially stolen the futures of millions of americans because of their unabated greed and their garnered support of the masses that hold, quite frankly, very simple views of systems, economies, and governments



I agree wholeheartedly with a level playing field. We are far from it. I would unequivocally say that nearly every successful business has tried to tilt the game in their favor through influencing politics. Those people inherently do NOT believe in the free market...they want to corrupt it. Shame on them.

But you know who ultimately is to blame? Politicians. They are the ones who ultimately sell their votes for campaign contributions. Businessmen and women CANNOT pass laws. Only congress can.

In the end business people have a responsibility to their shareholders. Them trying to tilt the court in their favor is actually something good for their shareholders....so one can argue they are acting in the best interest of their direct shareholders.

Politicians on the other hand are supposed to have OUR best interest in mind. They are the ones who are failing us! They are ultimately the sell-outs.




-------





What I find most fascinating about this discussion in general is how little people truly understand the tenets of capitalism (I'm not refering you to specifically here Bear, I think you are one of the most thoughtful, cogent posters on the board). Everyone loves to talk about the free market and cite Adam Smith. But I'm guessing less than 1% of the population (businessmen and politicians included) have actually read the entirety of Wealth of Nations.

Smith doesn't believe in an anything goes Capitalist society. He believes in a society that is founded on true competition. Our current society is a far cry from that, as you even alluded to yourself. Smith absolutely saw a need for government intervention in order to keep markets free. In his book he talks about 5 problems with the system that he is proposing...and the one he spends the most time on is how businesses will inevitably strive to reduce competition. Admittedly he thought they would do this the most through price fixing but we see examples of this everyday in our society -- when businesses lobby for monopolies like in utilities..or when they influence policy making. Smith (and me) thought the "Fix" to this problem was what he called "wise laws". I think our politicians have completely let us down in this regard. They have continually introduced regulations and laws that benefit a few players in the market at the expense of others. They have failed us miserably in this area.


Two other problems he foresaw (and this is incredible seeing as he wrote this 250 years ago) is

1.) Division of labor leading to dehumanized worker morale and wages (I'm sure if he would have written 50 years later he would have included automation too)
2.) A huge wealth gap between the classes as wealth through ownership begets more wealth





So in the end....I believe that we do need a LIMITED but very strong government to protect our liberty and to ensure fair competition...competition being the driver of the economy. We absolutely need "wise" laws and regulations both within the business sphere as well as the social sphere to help bring this about.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby beardmcdoug » Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:56 pm

Fair enough Zarni - id like to say though, that my stereotype of "anti-guv'ment" applies less to you, and more to my father in law (and to red leader ;) ) - I appreciate your response as always. I'm still apprehensive about our classic models of American "democracy" or capitalism's ability to "take care" of this upcoming problem - look forward to continuing the convo but heading out on the road
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Zarniwoop » Tue Jul 25, 2017 6:52 pm

BMD -- you'll be excited to hear this ... listened to NPR on the way home and they were breaking down economic performance and explaining why productivity growth continues to struggle over the past 10 years ...


And one of the big reasons why is that firms are continuing to decrease the amount they spend on technological innovation


Looks like the wooden clogs might not be needed after all!!!!!!!!!!


:P
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Tue Jul 25, 2017 6:56 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:BMD -- you'll be excited to hear this ... listened to NPR on the way home and they were breaking down economic performance and explaining why productivity growth continues to struggle over the past 10 years ...


And one of the big reasons why is that firms are continuing to decrease the amount they spend on technological innovation


Looks like the wooden clogs might not be needed after all!!!!!!!!!!


:P

Productivity is down? I hadn't really noticed. What were some of the other reasons?
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Zarniwoop » Tue Jul 25, 2017 7:18 pm

The biggest is companies aren't investing

They also discussed lack of skill in labor market

And a decrease in the # of innovations and patents (from outside business ... e.g. Inventors)
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby beardmcdoug » Tue Jul 25, 2017 7:57 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:The biggest is companies aren't investing

They also discussed lack of skill in labor market

And a decrease in the # of innovations and patents (from outside business ... e.g. Inventors)


Hah, great, now I'm even more confident that private industry won't be able to solve the problem ;)

My whole thing is that there are a couple impending tech advances that are going to be benchmark game changers (imo- automation, nanotech, VR) that are going to absolutely flip our current economy/societies on their heads - and that smaller, auxiliary/supplemental innovations or emergent markets aren't going to be able to keep up and replace the losses caused by the "major 3" -- which is where something like UBI or some other oddball economic system comes into play

This stagnation of "small time" innovation is almost like setting the ball on the tee for these things to smash us out of the park of normalcy

IMO, of course, I'm no miss fuggin cleo - just my interpretation of the situation (yes I'm quoting spottieottiedopalicious)
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Nano » Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:29 pm

I think AR is going to be more game changing then VR.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Corsair » Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:31 pm

Nano wrote:I think AR is going to be more game changing then VR.

YES YES YES!

I was talking to someone heavily invested in VR development and all he could tell me was that VR is about to make a jump, but AR is launching off of that.

VR is a vacation.

AR is enhancement.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:33 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:The biggest is companies aren't investing

They also discussed lack of skill in labor market

And a decrease in the # of innovations and patents (from outside business ... e.g. Inventors)

I can certainly point to the first point as being a big part of the slow economic growth. Low money velocity. Money is being hoarded and is compounding on itself to the benefit of the very few.

Not illegal by any means, but it does affect everyone else.

It's why I favor wealth redistribution. But unlike the socialists and communists, I want the government to create conditions that move that money more organically.

Tax policy can do a lot, but it's not enough. Breaking up a couple of banks and other big businesses on the other hand can do quite a bit.
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby beardmcdoug » Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:33 pm

Corsair wrote:
Nano wrote:I think AR is going to be more game changing then VR.

YES YES YES!

I was talking to someone heavily invested in VR development and all he could tell me was that VR is about to make a jump, but AR is launching off of that.

VR is a vacation.

AR is enhancement.


Yeah I agree with y'all. AR may be the thing that defeats my theory here though - that's something that could very well be the seed for a huge new economic sector to grow from. So yeah y'all are totally right, it's hard to imagine that AR won't be a completely ubiquitous thing here in the next 20-30 yrs. I think the two will coexist though - and I still think VR will cause a potentially greater shift in society (as the demand for that type of experience, and thus investment, grows):

I imagine it as (now, this is based on a ton of fuckin assumptions so don't hold me to it):
1st wave VR = oculus
1st wave AR = Pokémon go
2nd wave VR = pseudo invasive stimulation of brain sensory sectors combined with visual "oculus" type
2nd wave AR = presentations, interactive native points. Used in business, retail, social etc - used to "enhance" life, just as you say. I agree with y'all - this is the one to invest in because of how widespread and actually useful

But I do think that 3rd wave VR, as it approaches the point of one not being able to discern reality from VR - in sort of inception/matrix style of "going under" - that it will be hard for people to resist that sort of escape. And in this imagined future, I see the capitalist system we have now having collapsed, and a large portion of the population "sittin 'round waitin' t'die", that VR escape could essentially replace "life". Could be totally fuckin wrong though. But I mean hell, have y'all seen the progress on Star Citizen already? I know there's a huge portion of the population that is following that that would give anything to be able to "live" in that world. And I don't freaking blame them, looks pretty sweet. And if you don't have to worry about making money - why not spend all your time "living" in that world
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Re: The Robots Are Coming

Postby Zarniwoop » Wed Jul 26, 2017 10:18 am

Mountaineer Buc wrote:
Zarniwoop wrote:The biggest is companies aren't investing

They also discussed lack of skill in labor market

And a decrease in the # of innovations and patents (from outside business ... e.g. Inventors)

I can certainly point to the first point as being a big part of the slow economic growth. Low money velocity. Money is being hoarded and is compounding on itself to the benefit of the very few.

Not illegal by any means, but it does affect everyone else.

It's why I favor wealth redistribution. But unlike the socialists and communists, I want the government to create conditions that move that money more organically.

Tax policy can do a lot, but it's not enough. Breaking up a couple of banks and other big businesses on the other hand can do quite a bit.



I think you are making a jump too far. Publicly owned companies (the majority of our economy in terms of GDP) not investing in productivity improvement technology doesn't benefit the very few. When companies have earnings they can do just a few things with them:

1.) Reinvest them back into the business -- either in process or product improvement...the report didn't say anything about new product innovation so I can't speak to that...only about process improvement aimed at increasing productivity.
2.) Have them sit in cash reserves -- which while reducing risk -- certainly doesn't benefit the owners of the firm because there will always be projects that return a higher rate than money sitting in a bank...I have read many reports that this is the biggest cause --- ever since the recession firms have been sitting on more and more cash -- that's why interest rates are so low.
3.) Pay down outstanding debt -- which generally helps everyone -- workers, owners, customers, etc
4.) Buy back stock -- as far as I know, this isn't happening to a large degree as the # of shares on the NYSE and NASDAQ continues to grow
5.) Pay dividends -- if you look at the dividend data, companies have paid less out in dividends over the past 10 years ...so we know it isn't that.



I don't see how tax policy or redistributing wealth is going to help anything.

That being said, I think we can agree on a few things:

1.) The lack of productivity growth is alarming -- by far the highest portion of increased wages is brought by productivity gains. If productivity isn't improving there is no reason to increase wages...something neither of us want to see.


2.) In the past a far too large of chunk of worker productivity gains didn't go the workers. Furthermore, workers have never seemed to share in gains brought about by better methods of doing business in general...(eg. internet, logistics, etc).
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