College Football Playoff Selection

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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby uscbucsfan » Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:51 pm

ND almost lost to the worst team in the SEC. Clemson struggled without Lawrence, but they were not getting beat bad before TL went down to Syracuse. It was 13-7. It happens, just like to ND.

Clemson and ND have each beaten 1 opponent that is currently ranked. They both have a cake walk remaining. Clemson actually has a better remaining schedule with potentially 2 ranked teams. If Clemson wins out they are in, easily. Unless OSU goes undefeated, which they have the least likely chance IMO, they would be the 2 seed. Who would pass them?
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby NavyBuc » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:04 pm

uscbucsfan wrote:ND almost lost to the worst team in the SEC. Clemson struggled without Lawrence, but they were not getting beat bad before TL went down to Syracuse. It was 13-7. It happens, just like to ND.

Clemson and ND have each beaten 1 opponent that is currently ranked. They both have a cake walk remaining. Clemson actually has a better remaining schedule with potentially 2 ranked teams. If Clemson wins out they are in, easily. Unless OSU goes undefeated, which they have the least likely chance IMO, they would be the 2 seed. Who would pass them?


ND played Vandy with Brandon Wimbush at qb. If Ian Book plays, ND destroys Vandy. They're a much different team with the new qb. Much better offensively. They'd prolly lose to VT with Wimbush.

I don't know. I've watched a lot of football, including ND, Clemson, Ohio State and 'Bama. I'm just really with impressed with Notre Dame. They have a lot of skilled players on both sides of the ball that are NFL-caliber. They have big, physical receivers and Book at qb makes them a threat. And Dexter Williams is one of the more explosive backs in football. Defensively, they're one of the better units in college, as evidenced by the way they shut down Michigan and controlled Brice Love. They're not Alabama or Georgia, but I would say they could beat anyone else.
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby uscbucsfan » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:10 pm

NavyBuc wrote:
uscbucsfan wrote:ND almost lost to the worst team in the SEC. Clemson struggled without Lawrence, but they were not getting beat bad before TL went down to Syracuse. It was 13-7. It happens, just like to ND.

Clemson and ND have each beaten 1 opponent that is currently ranked. They both have a cake walk remaining. Clemson actually has a better remaining schedule with potentially 2 ranked teams. If Clemson wins out they are in, easily. Unless OSU goes undefeated, which they have the least likely chance IMO, they would be the 2 seed. Who would pass them?


ND played Vandy with Brandon Wimbush at qb. If Ian Book plays, ND destroys Vandy. They're a much different team with the new qb. Much better offensively. They'd prolly lose to VT with Wimbush.

I don't know. I've watched a lot of football, including ND, Clemson, Ohio State and 'Bama. I'm just really with impressed with Notre Dame. They have a lot of skilled players on both sides of the ball that are NFL-caliber. They have big, physical receivers and Book at qb makes them a threat. And Dexter Williams is one of the more explosive backs in football. Defensively, they're one of the better units in college, as evidenced by the way they shut down Michigan and controlled Brice Love. They're not Alabama or Georgia, but I would say they could beat anyone else.

You're also a ND fan and have always touted them.

I don't think they are bad, I just don't think they are elite. Clemson has been up and down and I hate them more than any other sports team, but at their best this season they are in that top elite echelon on both sides of the ball.
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby NavyBuc » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:40 pm

uscbucsfan wrote:
NavyBuc wrote:
ND played Vandy with Brandon Wimbush at qb. If Ian Book plays, ND destroys Vandy. They're a much different team with the new qb. Much better offensively. They'd prolly lose to VT with Wimbush.

I don't know. I've watched a lot of football, including ND, Clemson, Ohio State and 'Bama. I'm just really with impressed with Notre Dame. They have a lot of skilled players on both sides of the ball that are NFL-caliber. They have big, physical receivers and Book at qb makes them a threat. And Dexter Williams is one of the more explosive backs in football. Defensively, they're one of the better units in college, as evidenced by the way they shut down Michigan and controlled Brice Love. They're not Alabama or Georgia, but I would say they could beat anyone else.

You're also a ND fan and have always touted them.

I don't think they are bad, I just don't think they are elite. Clemson has been up and down and I hate them more than any other sports team, but at their best this season they are in that top elite echelon on both sides of the ball.


haha I definitely would not call myself a Notre Dame fan, but I do respect them. I hate Brian Kelly. Good coach, but arrogant jerk. However, like all Navy fans, we don't mind Notre Dame. Friendly rivals who we respect. I will stick up for them, but a lot of time it's just to play devil's advocate. I'm more of a Penn State guy.

I agree that they're not elite. If they played Alabama, they'd get spanked. But outside of 'Bama and maybe Georgia, there aren't any elite or great teams this year, IMO. That's why I think ND fits in along with OSU and Clemson as probably the 3rd best team in football.
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby Zarniwoop » Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:16 pm

New Polls:

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Notre Dame
5. LSU
6. Michigan
7. Texas
8. Georgia
9. Oklahoma
10. UCF


That's the AP poll. The 6 through 10 teams in are in a bit different order in the coaches poll
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby Ken Carson » Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:33 pm

Anyone else see that bullshit note that ESPN kept attaching to LSU? Kept saying, 'Three top-10 wins."

Uhh, two of those "top-10 wins" are unranked Auburn and unranked Miami. They actually have 1 ranked win, Georgia, who has zero ranked wins but are still ranked in the top 10.

That's why these rankings are completely meaningless until the teams have played 6-7 games. The only reason these teams are so highly rated is because they started the year with a single digit next to their name.
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby Super K » Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:06 pm

Ken Carson wrote:Anyone else see that bullshit note that ESPN kept attaching to LSU? Kept saying, 'Three top-10 wins."

Uhh, two of those "top-10 wins" are unranked Auburn and unranked Miami. They actually have 1 ranked win, Georgia, who has zero ranked wins but are still ranked in the top 10.

That's why these rankings are completely meaningless until the teams have played 6-7 games. The only reason these teams are so highly rated is because they started the year with a single digit next to their name.


I love this post...
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:18 pm

Ken Carson wrote:Anyone else see that bullshit note that ESPN kept attaching to LSU? Kept saying, 'Three top-10 wins."

Uhh, two of those "top-10 wins" are unranked Auburn and unranked Miami. They actually have 1 ranked win, Georgia, who has zero ranked wins but are still ranked in the top 10.

That's why these rankings are completely meaningless until the teams have played 6-7 games. The only reason these teams are so highly rated is because they started the year with a single digit next to their name.

That's right.
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby Zarniwoop » Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:21 pm

At the end of the year once enough games are played, they look at records against the current top 25, not what teams were ranked early in the season. Those early season effects go away over time. That’s one thing we have learned from the past 4 years, the committee is willing to move teams around even when they all win. They’ve done it every year.
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby Ken Carson » Sun Oct 14, 2018 5:06 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:At the end of the year once enough games are played, they look at records against the current top 25, not what teams were ranked early in the season. Those early season effects go away over time. That’s one thing we have learned from the past 4 years, the committee is willing to move teams around even when they all win. They’ve done it every year.

Maybe, but for example, Texas has an inexcusable loss to Maryland on the ledger. A Maryland team that was blown out by a mid-tier American Conference team in Temple, no less.

This may sound like UCF homer sour grapes, but when Pitt plays ND like they did yesterday and you realize UCF beat that Pitt team by 31 points... hard for me to see how someone can justify ND being top 4 and UCF not moving despite 4 teams losing ahead of them.
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby NavyBuc » Sun Oct 14, 2018 5:49 pm

Ken Carson wrote:
Zarniwoop wrote:At the end of the year once enough games are played, they look at records against the current top 25, not what teams were ranked early in the season. Those early season effects go away over time. That’s one thing we have learned from the past 4 years, the committee is willing to move teams around even when they all win. They’ve done it every year.

Maybe, but for example, Texas has an inexcusable loss to Maryland on the ledger. A Maryland team that was blown out by a mid-tier American Conference team in Temple, no less.

This may sound like UCF homer sour grapes, but when Pitt plays ND like they did yesterday and you realize UCF beat that Pitt team by 31 points... hard for me to see how someone can justify ND being top 4 and UCF not moving despite 4 teams losing ahead of them.


Problem is UCF barely beat Memphis yesterday..... a team that lost to Tulane and Navy! I love my Middies, but we are absolute trash this year. That's not helping UCF's case. UCF is in a position where they need to destroy everyone because of the weakness of their schedule. And I like UCF. I would love to see them in the playoff. But after watching them yesterday, they're not top-4 material. And the rest of their schedule isn't going to do them any favors. I think even if they win out, they may not end up in top-10. The Playoff committee puts a lot of stock in quality of wins and UCF just doesn't have any nor will they at the end of the year. They need to schedule some stronger opponents out of conference or try and get in a power 5 conference.

The Committee poll in two weeks is always a lot different than the AP poll. It's going to look nothing like the AP. They put a TON of stock in quality of wins. And don't be surprised if they put UCF a lot further down than the AP Poll has them. If you beat a top-10 team, they elevate you a lot, which is why I tend to think Notre Dame, LSU and Texas are going to be ranked higher than people think. All 3 teams have wins over top-10 opponents.
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby Ken Carson » Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:11 pm

NavyBuc wrote:
Ken Carson wrote:Maybe, but for example, Texas has an inexcusable loss to Maryland on the ledger. A Maryland team that was blown out by a mid-tier American Conference team in Temple, no less.

This may sound like UCF homer sour grapes, but when Pitt plays ND like they did yesterday and you realize UCF beat that Pitt team by 31 points... hard for me to see how someone can justify ND being top 4 and UCF not moving despite 4 teams losing ahead of them.


Problem is UCF barely beat Memphis yesterday..... a team that lost to Tulane and Navy! I love my Middies, but we are absolute trash this year. That's not helping UCF's case. UCF is in a position where they need to destroy everyone because of the weakness of their schedule. And I like UCF. I would love to see them in the playoff. But after watching them yesterday, they're not top-4 material. And the rest of their schedule isn't going to do them any favors. I think even if they win out, they may not end up in top-10. The Playoff committee puts a lot of stock in quality of wins and UCF just doesn't have any nor will they at the end of the year. They need to schedule some stronger opponents out of conference or try and get in a power 5 conference.

The Committee poll in two weeks is always a lot different than the AP poll. It's going to look nothing like the AP. They put a TON of stock in quality of wins. And don't be surprised if they put UCF a lot further down than the AP Poll has them. If you beat a top-10 team, they elevate you a lot, which is why I tend to think Notre Dame, LSU and Texas are going to be ranked higher than people think. All 3 teams have wins over top-10 opponents.

Before yesterday’s game in a torrential downpour, UCF’s lowest margin of victory was 20 points. I seriously doubt you watched more than highlights of yesterday’s game. Weather is a huge equalizing factor, especially when one team is built around an uptempo offense.

That said, I still don’t see how you work around Pitt as a common opponent between UCF and ND. UCF was up 45-7 and put in the second team to end the game. ND needed the entire game to squeak out a 5 point win at home.

Hope Navy can do us a solid next week and knock off the Irish. Not that it will help the Knights in the eyes of people who can’t see past the logo on jerseys.
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby NavyBuc » Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:28 pm

Ken Carson wrote:
NavyBuc wrote:
Problem is UCF barely beat Memphis yesterday..... a team that lost to Tulane and Navy! I love my Middies, but we are absolute trash this year. That's not helping UCF's case. UCF is in a position where they need to destroy everyone because of the weakness of their schedule. And I like UCF. I would love to see them in the playoff. But after watching them yesterday, they're not top-4 material. And the rest of their schedule isn't going to do them any favors. I think even if they win out, they may not end up in top-10. The Playoff committee puts a lot of stock in quality of wins and UCF just doesn't have any nor will they at the end of the year. They need to schedule some stronger opponents out of conference or try and get in a power 5 conference.

The Committee poll in two weeks is always a lot different than the AP poll. It's going to look nothing like the AP. They put a TON of stock in quality of wins. And don't be surprised if they put UCF a lot further down than the AP Poll has them. If you beat a top-10 team, they elevate you a lot, which is why I tend to think Notre Dame, LSU and Texas are going to be ranked higher than people think. All 3 teams have wins over top-10 opponents.

Before yesterday’s game in a torrential downpour, UCF’s lowest margin of victory was 20 points. I seriously doubt you watched more than highlights of yesterday’s game. Weather is a huge equalizing factor, especially when one team is built around an uptempo offense.

That said, I still don’t see how you work around Pitt as a common opponent between UCF and ND. UCF was up 45-7 and put in the second team to end the game. ND needed the entire game to squeak out a 5 point win at home.

Hope Navy can do us a solid next week and knock off the Irish. Not that it will help the Knights in the eyes of people who can’t see past the logo on jerseys.


I actually watched the whole game. I think UCF's a decent team, but I want to see them against some quality teams in order to definitely say "they should be in the playoff". And winning by one against a "meh" Memphis team isn't really helping their case any, bad weather or not. If Memphis had any brains in the last 30 seconds there, they actually would have won. But like I said, I'm rooting for UCF. I would love to see them in the final 4. But I'm just stating what the committee is likely thinking.

As for ND, I think the Irish had a letdown game. They had two straight ranked opponents and took yesterday's game lightly and it nearly bit them, kinda like Syracuse nearly bit Clemson and Minnesota had OSU on the ropes for awhile. Those games happen. Problem is when you play a tougher schedule, you can afford some down games. For UCF, they need to blow everyone out and hope the top teams falter. I still think there's going to be a lot of chaos, though. I think the Irish could lose to an improving USC team on that last game of the year, I think Ohio State is going to get beat by someone (possibly Purdue next week) and Clemson has a couple tricky games left. Even Alabama, who has looked dominant, I think is going to have a test when they go to Baton Rouge at night in a few weeks. So crazy things could happen. Yesterday showed that. Outside of Alabama, I don't think there's really any great teams this year.
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby Zarniwoop » Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:41 pm

Sagarin has UCF’s SOS at 121st.

It will surely improve after they play UC and USF but I won’t be high enough to get them in unless there are 2 loss conference champs
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby Ken Carson » Sun Oct 14, 2018 9:53 pm

For reasons I mentioned earlier, I don’t put any stock in SoS at this point in the season. Half of the games most teams have played are joke games against vastly inferior competition.

Navy, I also don’t get your logic. ND had a “down game” but UCF is “just decent?” Why doesn’t the team who has won 19 consecutive games get to have a “down game” on the road? You reference the Irish playing two “ranked” teams, except neither of those teams are even ranked anymore. And again, they’ve played a common opponent. UCF won by 26 more points and had 200 more yards of offense.
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby NavyBuc » Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:08 am

Ken Carson wrote:For reasons I mentioned earlier, I don’t put any stock in SoS at this point in the season. Half of the games most teams have played are joke games against vastly inferior competition.

Navy, I also don’t get your logic. ND had a “down game” but UCF is “just decent?” Why doesn’t the team who has won 19 consecutive games get to have a “down game” on the road? You reference the Irish playing two “ranked” teams, except neither of those teams are even ranked anymore. And again, they’ve played a common opponent. UCF won by 26 more points and had 200 more yards of offense.


I'll make it simple: When you're comparing two undefeated teams in any scenario, and one has played the 121st ranked schedule and another has played the 12th ranked schedule, which team do you think the committee is going to put ahead?

My logic is this: If you play the 121st schedule in college football, you need to go undefeated and look impressive in every game doing so. If you play the 12th ranked schedule, you have more wiggle room as long as you win. 19 straight wins means absolutely nothing because we're talking about the 2018 season, not the 2017 one. And ND beat Stanford when they were in the top-10 with Bryce Love. They also beat Michigan who is in the top 10 now. The win at a ranked Va. Tech at the time was an okay win, but they beat them down pretty bad.

Things will play themselves out, though. I think ND and Ohio State are all going to lose down the stretch. I think even Bama may lose one with that game at LSU in a few weeks. I think Oklahoma, Michigan, Georgia and Texas will all lose again. There's going to be more carnage and UCF's schedule will get a little tougher as long as Cincinnati and USF keep winning. So let's let things play out before we panic about UCF not getting into the top-5 at the end of the year.
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby Zarniwoop » Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:12 am

everybody gets to have down games. now more than anything NCAA is simply about surviving your schedule....provided its a decent one.


i have had no beef with the top 4 selections since this thing began. I think the committee has done a great job of picking the teams. You can argue on the fringes (OSU getting in over TCU in year 1....OSU not getting in last year) but that will always happen. I simply haven't seen a clear cut error from them yet.

That being said, sometimes their "explanations" are a load of hogwash...and how they jump through hoops to justify their selections is completely unnecessary and has often come back to bite them in the butt.




There is a high probability that this year will work itself out too.
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby Ken Carson » Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:53 pm

NavyBuc wrote:
Ken Carson wrote:For reasons I mentioned earlier, I don’t put any stock in SoS at this point in the season. Half of the games most teams have played are joke games against vastly inferior competition.

Navy, I also don’t get your logic. ND had a “down game” but UCF is “just decent?” Why doesn’t the team who has won 19 consecutive games get to have a “down game” on the road? You reference the Irish playing two “ranked” teams, except neither of those teams are even ranked anymore. And again, they’ve played a common opponent. UCF won by 26 more points and had 200 more yards of offense.


I'll make it simple: When you're comparing two undefeated teams in any scenario, and one has played the 121st ranked schedule and another has played the 12th ranked schedule, which team do you think the committee is going to put ahead?

My logic is this: If you play the 121st schedule in college football, you need to go undefeated and look impressive in every game doing so. If you play the 12th ranked schedule, you have more wiggle room as long as you win. 19 straight wins means absolutely nothing because we're talking about the 2018 season, not the 2017 one. And ND beat Stanford when they were in the top-10 with Bryce Love. They also beat Michigan who is in the top 10 now. The win at a ranked Va. Tech at the time was an okay win, but they beat them down pretty bad.

Things will play themselves out, though. I think ND and Ohio State are all going to lose down the stretch. I think even Bama may lose one with that game at LSU in a few weeks. I think Oklahoma, Michigan, Georgia and Texas will all lose again. There's going to be more carnage and UCF's schedule will get a little tougher as long as Cincinnati and USF keep winning. So let's let things play out before we panic about UCF not getting into the top-5 at the end of the year.

What forms the basis of the strength of a team’s schedule?
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby Zarniwoop » Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:57 pm

For Sagarin, which I quoted, it’s a combination of the win/loss record of your opponents and then their opponents. It has zero to do with human rankings.

He also does a SOS that is based on the difficulty a .500 team would have actually winning .500 of the games on a team’s schedule.


There is a very high correlation between the two measures
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby Super K » Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:58 pm

Ken Carson wrote:
NavyBuc wrote:
I'll make it simple: When you're comparing two undefeated teams in any scenario, and one has played the 121st ranked schedule and another has played the 12th ranked schedule, which team do you think the committee is going to put ahead?

My logic is this: If you play the 121st schedule in college football, you need to go undefeated and look impressive in every game doing so. If you play the 12th ranked schedule, you have more wiggle room as long as you win. 19 straight wins means absolutely nothing because we're talking about the 2018 season, not the 2017 one. And ND beat Stanford when they were in the top-10 with Bryce Love. They also beat Michigan who is in the top 10 now. The win at a ranked Va. Tech at the time was an okay win, but they beat them down pretty bad.

Things will play themselves out, though. I think ND and Ohio State are all going to lose down the stretch. I think even Bama may lose one with that game at LSU in a few weeks. I think Oklahoma, Michigan, Georgia and Texas will all lose again. There's going to be more carnage and UCF's schedule will get a little tougher as long as Cincinnati and USF keep winning. So let's let things play out before we panic about UCF not getting into the top-5 at the end of the year.

What forms the basis of the strength of a team’s schedule?



Ooooooo, I know I know!!!


Shitty and biased pre-season rankings....
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby Zarniwoop » Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:00 pm

Super K wrote:
Ken Carson wrote:What forms the basis of the strength of a team’s schedule?



Ooooooo, I know I know!!!


Shitty and biased pre-season rankings....



I don’t know of a single computerized SOS that uses human rankings as an input.

If you can find some please link them ... I’d like to see how the ones that use human rankings compare to those that don’t
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby Super K » Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:35 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:
Super K wrote:

Ooooooo, I know I know!!!


Shitty and biased pre-season rankings....



I don’t know of a single computerized SOS that uses human rankings as an input.

If you can find some please link them ... I’d like to see how the ones that use human rankings compare to those that don’t



Really?..I would've bet my life it was/is one if the variables...

So, essentially, losing to a 10-1 North Texas team is the same as losing against LSU?...(not being a ****, seriously asking)

Edit: btw, found the link below which states that SOS is, partly, calculated by wins against the committee's top 25 teams...

http://www.espn.com/college-football/st ... le-metrics
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby Zarniwoop » Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:52 pm

The 10-1 thing is why computers use opponents opponents record as well. A win over 10-1 UNT won’t be as impressive because the schools on UNTs schedule will have a worse record then those on say LSUs. (The SEC teams on LSUs schedule will all have very good OOC records....that won’t be true for UNTs)


That article does a good job showing just how holistically the committee tries to look at things. They even discuss how the hard number stuff is simply a starting point for the committee ... which is exactly how it should be.


Again, as far as I’m concerned they have done fine at picking out the top 4 since the new system started
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby uscbucsfan » Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:19 am

Not sure where to put this about Tua:

Through his first five games, he had a 95.5 QBR rating, the highest for any quarterback in the 15 seasons that the metric has been tracked. He has accounted for 23 touchdowns and has still yet to take a snap in the fourth quarter.


He's also yet to throw a pick. Bama without Tua is a top 4 team, but with him in the game they are on another planet outscoring opponents 238- 50. I've said it twice before, but it's like a cheat code for Bama to have the best QB in the game.

edit: Bama's offense with Tua in the game, without him playing 4th quarters or portions of the 3rd quarter, is the 6th best offense in the nation. Overall they are 1st by almost 2 points per game. Sorry I just keep hearing these ridiculous numbers. I'm sure they will drop off with their upcoming schedule, but he's running away with the Heisman as it is. He currently has 5/9 odds of winning it.
Last edited by uscbucsfan on Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby Kress » Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:27 am

Ken Carson wrote:Anyone else see that bullshit note that ESPN kept attaching to LSU? Kept saying, 'Three top-10 wins."

Uhh, two of those "top-10 wins" are unranked Auburn and unranked Miami. They actually have 1 ranked win, Georgia, who has zero ranked wins but are still ranked in the top 10.

That's why these rankings are completely meaningless until the teams have played 6-7 games. The only reason these teams are so highly rated is because they started the year with a single digit next to their name.



Exactly, and it works both ways. I am still hearing about how this week will be the first time all year that Clemson has played a ranked team. Never mind that they went to Texas A&M and beat them on their home field. That was too early, and A&M wasn't ranked yet. :roll:

But, at the end of the day rankings are all just fluff. Unless yours at the end of the season says 1, 2, 3, or 4, it doesn't make all that much difference. The bowls will do their conference matchups, and so on.
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby DreadNaught » Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:41 am

Ken Carson wrote:That's why these rankings are completely meaningless until the teams have played 6-7 games. The only reason these teams are so highly rated is because they started the year with a single digit next to their name.


Yup, same as every year. Any rankings before the November are just fodder for fans to react to and drive conversation. They don't mean a damn thing.
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby NavyBuc » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:17 am

DreadNaught wrote:
Ken Carson wrote:That's why these rankings are completely meaningless until the teams have played 6-7 games. The only reason these teams are so highly rated is because they started the year with a single digit next to their name.


Yup, same as every year. Any rankings before the November are just fodder for fans to react to and drive conversation. They don't mean a damn thing.


Agree. The one two weeks from today is really the first one that matters because then you start to see how the committee views these teams and if there's a chance for some of these teams to finish in the final 4. Like you'll get an idea if there's any chance for UCF to make the final 4 based on where the committee has them on Oct. 30. If they have them in the top 10, there's a chance, but if they have them like 16 or 17, forget it. But the AP/Coaches polls are meaningless right now.
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby Phantom Phenom » Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Ranking one loss team

. Michigan Wolverines (6-1)
This week: at No. 24 Michigan State (noon ET, Fox)
Toughest remaining test: Nov. 24 at Ohio State

The scenario: Given how poorly Georgia played in its loss to LSU and the Bulldogs' difficult upcoming schedule, it seems -- at least for now -- more likely that the Wolverines will win their league, rather than Georgia winning its. Michigan might wind up having the best loss in the country -- the season opener to Notre Dame. It certainly wouldn't keep the Wolverines out of the selection committee's top four if Michigan were to win out. The Wolverines can't afford to overlook the Spartans this weekend, though, as Michigan State just knocked Penn State out of the conversation and has embraced its role as spoiler. Michigan, which racked up a season-high 320 rushing yards in the win over Wisconsin last weekend, will face the nation's top rushing defense. The Spartans are limiting opponents to just 62.3 rushing yards per game.

The odds: The Big Ten has an 11 percent chance to get multiple teams into the playoff, second best to the SEC. There's a 21 percent chance Michigan will be 10-1 and Ohio State will be 11-0 when the teams meet in Columbus on Nov. 24.

2. Georgia Bulldogs (6-1)
This week: Bye
Toughest remaining test: Oct. 27 vs. Florida

The scenario: Georgia is ranked ahead of LSU on this list in spite of the head-to-head win by the Tigers, simply because Georgia doesn't have to play Alabama during the regular season and LSU does. It's more statistically feasible for Georgia to win the East than for LSU to win the West; and even if the Tigers find a way to beat Alabama (LSU has a 24.4 percent chance to do just that, according to FPI), it would be extremely difficult for LSU to beat Georgia a second time in the same season in the SEC title game. Still, Georgia has to win out and win the SEC, likely beating Alabama or LSU in the process. There's no margin for error here because of the Bulldogs' weak schedule, which currently features no wins against opponents over .500 and rival Georgia Tech (3-4) as their lone Power 5 nonconference opponent. Georgia is fortunate the SEC East is better this year -- with both Florida and Kentucky legitimate contenders for the division and potential résumé boosters -- but that also means the division is tougher to win. With Florida and Georgia both off this week, they will each have one loss when they play Oct. 27 in Jacksonville.

The odds: There's a 16 percent chance the Bulldogs win out. If they do, there's a 94 percent chance they will reach the playoff, according to ESPN's Playoff Predictor.

3. Oklahoma Sooners (5-1)
This week: at TCU (noon ET, ABC)
Toughest remaining test: Nov. 23 at West Virginia

The scenario: Not only do the Sooners have to win out, they also need some upsets in the rankings ahead of them -- arguably the most important being Notre Dame. As long as the Fighting Irish remain undefeated, their spot in the top four will likely come at the expense of the Big 12 and Pac-12. It's not inconceivable, though, so don't rule out the Big 12 just yet -- especially if OU can show some defensive improvement after the firing of coordinator Mike Stoops. Oklahoma had a bye week this week to regroup from the loss to Texas and the staff change before going on the road to TCU.

The odds: Oklahoma's 20 percent chance to win out is the best of any one-loss Power 5 team. The Sooners have a 77 percent chance to reach the playoff if they finish 12-1.

4. Florida Gators (6-1)
This week: Bye
Toughest remaining test: Oct. 27 vs. Georgia

The scenario: Florida needs 5-1 Kentucky, which beat the Gators in Week 2, to lose again in order for it to win the SEC East -- and Kentucky still has to play Georgia (Nov. 3). For Florida, which has won five straight, it all boils down to its game against Georgia. FPI gives the Gators a 30.2 percent chance to beat the Bulldogs; it's the only remaining game on Florida's schedule that it is not favored to win. Any team that has a chance to win the SEC has a shot at the top four.

The odds: The Gators have a 4 percent chance to win out. If they finish 12-1, there's an 83 percent chance the Gators will reach the playoff. That falls to 35 percent if they go 11-1 and fail to reach the SEC championship.

5. LSU Tigers (6-1)
This week: vs. No. 22 Mississippi State (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Toughest test: Nov. 3 vs. Alabama

The scenario: LSU already has exceeded expectations. (Remember when Ed Orgeron was on the hot seat? Neither does he.) But three of the Tigers' last five opponents are ranked, including Saturday's foe in a game that is hardly a gimme. Last year, Mississippi State hammered LSU 37-7, and the Bulldogs just had a bye week to prepare for this one. LSU quarterback Joe Burrow has a completion percentage of 50 percent or less in four games this year, and he has been sacked 16 times in seven games -- second most in the SEC. If LSU slips, the big win over Georgia will be an afterthought.

The odds: The Tigers only have a 3 percent chance to win out, but if they do, there's an 89 percent chance they will reach the playoff.

6. Texas Longhorns (6-1)
This week: Bye
Toughest remaining test: Nov. 10 at Texas Tech

The scenario: The ideal situation would be for Texas to win out and beat rival Oklahoma a second time in the Big 12 title game, having gone undefeated in league play. The problem for the Big 12 continues to be Notre Dame, though. Assuming an undefeated Irish team is in the selection committee's top four, at least two other Power 5 teams are left out. The Pac-12 is in the worst shape, but a one-loss Big 12 champ also is unlikely to be chosen ahead of undefeated Notre Dame. The season-opening loss to Maryland is certainly forgivable, considering the emotions of the Terrapins in that game following the death of offensive lineman Jordan McNair and that Maryland is having a respectable season. Committee members should acknowledge the improvement Texas has made since that game, but the Horns still need some upsets to get any serious consideration.

The odds: The Longhorns have a 3 percent chance to win out, and even if they do, there's just a 45 percent chance that they will reach the playoff.

7. Iowa Hawkeyes (5-1)
This week: vs. Maryland (noon ET, ESPN2)
Toughest remaining test: Oct. 27 at Penn State

The scenario: When Wisconsin lost to Michigan last week, it opened the door for Iowa to win the West division. (Iowa's only loss this season is to Wisconsin.) Iowa still needs the Badgers to lose again, and it's possible they will, with three difficult road trips -- to Northwestern, Penn State and Purdue -- still remaining. Iowa also has to survive back-to-back road games against Penn State (Oct. 27) and Purdue (Nov. 3). It's a tall task, but if the Hawkeyes can win out and upset the East division winner in the Big Ten title game, there could be a big surprise in the final top four.

The odds: The Hawkeyes have a 2 percent chance to reach the playoff and 2 percent chance to win out. If they finish 12-1, there's a 66 percent they will reach the playoff.

8. Oregon Ducks (5-1)
This week: at No. 25 Washington State (7:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
Toughest remaining test: Nov. 10 at Utah

The scenario: Oregon would need to win out and hope other Power 5 conferences produce two-loss champions, a similar situation that helped Washington into the semifinals in 2016 in spite of a lousy nonconference lineup. Oregon doesn't have any nonconference wins against Power 5 opponents (Bowling Green, Portland State and San Jose State were slated), and that portion of its schedule ranks last in FBS. Should Oregon get into a résumé battle with another one-loss Power 5 champion, the nonconference strength of schedule could be the difference.

The odds: FPI gives Oregon a 38.5 percent chance to win this weekend at Washington State and a 31.3 percent chance to prevail at Utah. Two-loss Washington remains the front-runner to take the Pac-12 North, but the winner of Saturday's Ducks-Cougars tilt in Pullman will emerge as its top challenger.
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby Crocaneers » Sun Oct 21, 2018 2:09 pm

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Ohhh this is gonna get good .. 2 SEC West and 2 SEC East
OSU is 11th
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Re: College Football Playoff Selection

Postby NavyBuc » Sun Oct 21, 2018 5:01 pm

The poll that really matters comes out in 9 days. Excited to see that one because that will tell you whether UCF has any shot to make final 4. Gonna be interesting to see where committee puts them. Actually think when it comes out, Bama and LSU are going to be 1 and 2. Committee loves rewarding teams who had big wins, even if they're not undefeated, and LSU has had a few. I wouldn't be surprised if ND is 3 because of their Michigan win and Clemson is 4th. If Gators win next week, they could crack top-5 in committee poll based on two huge wins.
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