Article about RB Value

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Article about RB Value

Postby Naismith » Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:43 am

Here's a good article on why using early picks on RBs is a bad bet. It doesn't even go into the financial aspect, that paying a RB a top end rookie salary eliminates the contract savings that you typically get from a rookie.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/he ... -a-mistake
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby Zarniwoop » Wed Apr 25, 2018 1:42 pm

that's a cool article...thanks for posting.

in order to truly appreciate its value, i think a comparison is necessary for other positions -- particularly WR, QB
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby Buc2 » Wed Apr 25, 2018 2:12 pm

I think I'll wait for RBF opinion on this article before I weigh in.
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby terrytate » Wed Apr 25, 2018 2:14 pm

An interesting read and I agree with much of it. However, they make the case of why it's a bad call for the Giants and Browns. They are in a different situation than us. Both teams have some need for a QB and both teams will likely get a shot at the star pass rusher in this draft. The Bucs have no need at all for a QB at 7 and almost no shot at the one premiere pass rusher, we have a glaring need for a back and Barkley is likely to be BPA if he's there at 7.

They then point out that Fournette was a bit overrated and how Hunt and Kamara outperformed him without acknowledging that those two backs landed in dream situations while Fournette was in a Blake Bortles led attack. Our situation is much close to that of KC and NO than that of Jax. We have the franchise QB and a ton of weapons to keep defenses from just stacking the line like they did to Fournette. They also only glance on the fact that Gurley was an MVP candidate last year.

Sure, we need linemen but the only two worth taking at 7 almost certainly won't be there if Barkley is. As for Barkley himself, hes a little more than just a bellcow back. Hes also a top shelf receiving option out of the backfield. Barkley in space with Howard and Evan's in front of him would give a DC the cold sweats. He can take simple checkdowns for chunk yardage and has the skills to run deeper routes. Lastly, he is a damn fine conventional RB. Hes got the size, speed and agility for any kind of running play in the books, with good vision and patience to boot.

In short. I agree that there are better moves for the Browns and Giants to make than Barkley, but he would be a home run pick for us should he fall.
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Wed Apr 25, 2018 3:09 pm

terrytate wrote:An interesting read and I agree with much of it. However, they make the case of why it's a bad call for the Giants and Browns. They are in a different situation than us. Both teams have some need for a QB and both teams will likely get a shot at the star pass rusher in this draft. The Bucs have no need at all for a QB at 7 and almost no shot at the one premiere pass rusher, we have a glaring need for a back and Barkley is likely to be BPA if he's there at 7.

They then point out that Fournette was a bit overrated and how Hunt and Kamara outperformed him without acknowledging that those two backs landed in dream situations while Fournette was in a Blake Bortles led attack. Our situation is much close to that of KC and NO than that of Jax. We have the franchise QB and a ton of weapons to keep defenses from just stacking the line like they did to Fournette. They also only glance on the fact that Gurley was an MVP candidate last year.

Sure, we need linemen but the only two worth taking at 7 almost certainly won't be there if Barkley is. As for Barkley himself, hes a little more than just a bellcow back. Hes also a top shelf receiving option out of the backfield. Barkley in space with Howard and Evan's in front of him would give a DC the cold sweats. He can take simple checkdowns for chunk yardage and has the skills to run deeper routes. Lastly, he is a damn fine conventional RB. Hes got the size, speed and agility for any kind of running play in the books, with good vision and patience to boot.

In short. I agree that there are better moves for the Browns and Giants to make than Barkley, but he would be a home run pick for us should he fall.


Very well said. Great post.

IF Barkley is there at 7 I think trying to sell that pick is the best move.
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby mdb1958 » Wed Apr 25, 2018 4:11 pm

Mike Boone RB - UDFA is waiting to get a Superbowl ring!
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby real bucs fan » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:45 pm

Passing on Barkley would be stupid. Waiting until Day 3 would be stupid. Ultimately I'm expecting our 2nd rounder to be a RB, and Penny is my favourite amongst those guys.
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby MJW » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:54 pm

real bucs fan wrote:Passing on Barkley would be stupid. Waiting until Day 3 would be stupid.


Your move, extensively researched 538 article! Talk your way out of these points!
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby real bucs fan » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:55 pm

MJW wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:Passing on Barkley would be stupid. Waiting until Day 3 would be stupid.


Your move, extensively researched 538 article! Talk your way out of these points!

There's a difference between the general notions put forth by the article, and what we should do specifically for this football team...
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby I Are Serious Poster » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:36 pm

real bucs fan wrote:Passing on Barkley would be stupid. Waiting until Day 3 would be stupid. Ultimately I'm expecting our 2nd rounder to be a RB, and Penny is my favourite amongst those guys.


Does Penny's 9 on the Wonderlic bother you? I like him too, but I do worry about Jameis getting hung out to dry because Penny doesn't know who or when to block.
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby Miller4Prez64 » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:43 pm

I'm not for drafting a RB in the top 10 but I'd be fine with Barkley if he fell (doubt he does though). We have the QB ad some weapons, the offense is missing a dynamic runningback. We could also upgrade the offensive line, but let's be real both Nelson and Barkley being at our pick is not happening and there isn't another lineman worth the pick. So if Barkley is there, we are talking about adding the dynamic back or going to the other side of the ball and upgrading the secondary. I'd be fine with either, but I think it's likely we will have to use our 2nd round pick. I know some want to wait later but I'm afraid Winston is doomed for another season of the same if he has to keep throwing the ball 60+% of the time every week because we have no threat on the ground.
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby real bucs fan » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:47 pm

I Are Serious Poster wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:Passing on Barkley would be stupid. Waiting until Day 3 would be stupid. Ultimately I'm expecting our 2nd rounder to be a RB, and Penny is my favourite amongst those guys.


Does Penny's 9 on the Wonderlic bother you? I like him too, but I do worry about Jameis getting hung out to dry because Penny doesn't know who or when to block.

The wonderlic has been proven to mean very little, especially from a RB. Though I definitely do value a RBs ability to pass protect, so that is certainly something Penny needs to prove he can do. I like him because of his skills with the ball in his hands though.
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby real bucs fan » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:53 pm

Miller4Prez64 wrote:I'm not for drafting a RB in the top 10 but I'd be fine with Barkley if he fell (doubt he does though). We have the QB ad some weapons, the offense is missing a dynamic runningback. We could also upgrade the offensive line, but let's be real both Nelson and Barkley being at our pick is not happening and there isn't another lineman worth the pick. So if Barkley is there, we are talking about adding the dynamic back or going to the other side of the ball and upgrading the secondary. I'd be fine with either, but I think it's likely we will have to use our 2nd round pick. I know some want to wait later but I'm afraid Winston is doomed for another season of the same if he has to keep throwing the ball 60+% of the time every week because we have no threat on the ground.

Barkley would just change the dynamic of this entire team. Running the ball is the big weakness of this team at the moment, and being able to run it would not only help our franchise QB, it would help keep the D fresh as well. It's cyclical and synergenic, and adding a Barkley would just change this team drastically in all facets. Not only would our biggest weakness become a strength, but everything else would benefit as well...
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby Bootz2004 » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:56 pm

real bucs fan wrote:
Miller4Prez64 wrote:I'm not for drafting a RB in the top 10 but I'd be fine with Barkley if he fell (doubt he does though). We have the QB ad some weapons, the offense is missing a dynamic runningback. We could also upgrade the offensive line, but let's be real both Nelson and Barkley being at our pick is not happening and there isn't another lineman worth the pick. So if Barkley is there, we are talking about adding the dynamic back or going to the other side of the ball and upgrading the secondary. I'd be fine with either, but I think it's likely we will have to use our 2nd round pick. I know some want to wait later but I'm afraid Winston is doomed for another season of the same if he has to keep throwing the ball 60+% of the time every week because we have no threat on the ground.

Barkley would just change the dynamic of this entire team. Running the ball is the big weakness of this team at the moment, and being able to run it would not only help our franchise QB, it would help keep the D fresh as well. It's cyclical and synergenic, and adding a Barkley would just change this team drastically in all facets. Not only would our biggest weakness become a strength, but everything else would benefit as well...


This is and has been very sad. You're like a programmed robot. You say the exact same thing each and everytime and offer nothing new or different or even an improvement on your POV. Despite the fact that you get proven wrong and refuted so often. You truly know nothing about the game of football.
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby real bucs fan » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:59 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:Barkley would just change the dynamic of this entire team. Running the ball is the big weakness of this team at the moment, and being able to run it would not only help our franchise QB, it would help keep the D fresh as well. It's cyclical and synergenic, and adding a Barkley would just change this team drastically in all facets. Not only would our biggest weakness become a strength, but everything else would benefit as well...


This is and has been very sad. You're like a programmed robot. You say the exact same thing each and everytime and offer nothing new or different or even an improvement on your POV. Despite the fact that you get proven wrong and refuted so often. You truly know nothing about the game of football.

Ironic. Do you really not remember our conversations last year and then how the season turned out?
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby terrytate » Wed Apr 25, 2018 8:37 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:Barkley would just change the dynamic of this entire team. Running the ball is the big weakness of this team at the moment, and being able to run it would not only help our franchise QB, it would help keep the D fresh as well. It's cyclical and synergenic, and adding a Barkley would just change this team drastically in all facets. Not only would our biggest weakness become a strength, but everything else would benefit as well...


This is and has been very sad. You're like a programmed robot. You say the exact same thing each and everytime and offer nothing new or different or even an improvement on your POV. Despite the fact that you get proven wrong and refuted so often. You truly know nothing about the game of football.



The funny part is that everything he said is correct. This team does need a new back in a bad way for all the reasons he said. The only thing up for debate is which back we take.

Barkley is a big, athletic freak who can do everything you might ask of a back, including running downfield routes. If Fournette and Zeke were top 10 picks, Barkley is too. Now, sure we can get a back in a later round. I've argued that point many times myself. In those cases, we were trying to build a team from the ground up and had needs all over. Sure, we can get a back in a later round that will do well and should we get a shot at Chubb or Nelson, that's the clear path. If Chubb and Nelson are both gone, and we can't sell the pick for a bounty, Barkley would be the clear BPA at a position of great need. You take the home run when it's given to you.
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby Cheb » Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:05 pm

terrytate wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
This is and has been very sad. You're like a programmed robot. You say the exact same thing each and everytime and offer nothing new or different or even an improvement on your POV. Despite the fact that you get proven wrong and refuted so often. You truly know nothing about the game of football.



The funny part is that everything he said is correct. This team does need a new back in a bad way for all the reasons he said. The only thing up for debate is which back we take.

Barkley is a big, athletic freak who can do everything you might ask of a back, including running downfield routes. If Fournette and Zeke were top 10 picks, Barkley is too. Now, sure we can get a back in a later round. I've argued that point many times myself. In those cases, we were trying to build a team from the ground up and had needs all over. Sure, we can get a back in a later round that will do well and should we get a shot at Chubb or Nelson, that's the clear path. If Chubb and Nelson are both gone, and we can't sell the pick for a bounty, Barkley would be the clear BPA at a position of great need. You take the home run when it's given to you.


I completely agree.

There's a reason that Barkley has been consistently mocked as a top five selection throughout the draft process. The only two parts of his game that aren't A++ stellar are pass protection and trying to get cute too often. The former can be fixed with reps, the latter can be fixed with coaching emphasis and reps.

If Chubb and Nelson are gone at seventh overall and Barkley is available, he sure as **** better be a Buc.
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby Doctor » Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:39 pm

Indeed. We aren't all for Barkley because we don't have a starter on the roster, though it's a fair point. If there was no Barkley we wouldn't be overhyping Guice or Michel or Chubb. We'd all be for passing on a RB at 7. The issue is that, despite all those over guys being very very talented, Barkley is on a whole other level. He's on a LT level. And that's a franchise changer, I don't care how the salary numbers work out.
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby MJW » Thu Apr 26, 2018 1:40 am

Cheb wrote:There's a reason that Barkley has been consistently mocked as a top five selection throughout the draft process. The only two parts of his game that aren't A++ stellar are pass protection and trying to get cute too often. The former can be fixed with reps, the latter can be fixed with coaching emphasis and reps.


This is a monster assumption. You're not talking about tweaking footwork. You're talking about re-wiring his instincts and his running style from the ground up. You might as well say, "The only part of that middle linebacker's game that isn't A+ is his physicality, but that can be fixing with coaching and reps." It's the same conversation. Maybe you can. Or maybe this is just who he is.
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby real bucs fan » Thu Apr 26, 2018 8:05 am

Barkley as he is now is still a superstar.
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby Cheb » Thu Apr 26, 2018 8:15 am

MJW wrote:
Cheb wrote:There's a reason that Barkley has been consistently mocked as a top five selection throughout the draft process. The only two parts of his game that aren't A++ stellar are pass protection and trying to get cute too often. The former can be fixed with reps, the latter can be fixed with coaching emphasis and reps.


This is a monster assumption. You're not talking about tweaking footwork. You're talking about re-wiring his instincts and his running style from the ground up. You might as well say, "The only part of that middle linebacker's game that isn't A+ is his physicality, but that can be fixing with coaching and reps." It's the same conversation. Maybe you can. Or maybe this is just who he is.


Maybe. As always with the draft, we will see. :)
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby MJW » Thu Apr 26, 2018 8:19 am

real bucs fan wrote:Barkley as he is now is still a superstar.


So was Reggie Bush. If you're okay with drafting that, mazel tov. I hope we're not.
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby Deuce » Thu Apr 26, 2018 8:20 am

MJW wrote:
Cheb wrote:There's a reason that Barkley has been consistently mocked as a top five selection throughout the draft process. The only two parts of his game that aren't A++ stellar are pass protection and trying to get cute too often. The former can be fixed with reps, the latter can be fixed with coaching emphasis and reps.


This is a monster assumption. You're not talking about tweaking footwork. You're talking about re-wiring his instincts and his running style from the ground up. You might as well say, "The only part of that middle linebacker's game that isn't A+ is his physicality, but that can be fixing with coaching and reps." It's the same conversation. Maybe you can. Or maybe this is just who he is.


You're being a little dramatic. It's common for players with elite athleticism to take advantage of it. At the college level, Barkley has that and exploited it. In high school, almost every eventual pro has it and has to be "rewired from the ground up" aka adjusting to the next level. Very few have it at the college level.
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby MJW » Thu Apr 26, 2018 8:24 am

Deuce wrote:
MJW wrote:
This is a monster assumption. You're not talking about tweaking footwork. You're talking about re-wiring his instincts and his running style from the ground up. You might as well say, "The only part of that middle linebacker's game that isn't A+ is his physicality, but that can be fixing with coaching and reps." It's the same conversation. Maybe you can. Or maybe this is just who he is.


You're being a little dramatic. It's common for players with elite athleticism to take advantage of it. At the college level, Barkley has that and exploited it. In high school, almost every eventual pro has it and has to be "rewired from the ground up" aka adjusting to the next level. Very few have it at the college level.


Nonsense. Guice has it, too, for example. He followed his blocks in college, so there's reason to think he'll do so in the NFL. Barkley just spent three years at Happy Valley doing hightlight reel stuff that will often lead to TFL in the pros. Simply assuming he's going to start running the ball the way a back needs to at this level is, again, a monster assumption. The graveyard of running back draft busts has a lot of great talents in it who couldn't.
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby real bucs fan » Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:13 am

MJW wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:Barkley as he is now is still a superstar.


So was Reggie Bush. If you're okay with drafting that, mazel tov. I hope we're not.

Barkley is 230lbs and can squat 600 pounds.

The proof will be in the pudding anyway.
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby Naismith » Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:21 am

Young Reggie Bush would be a stud in today's NFL.

I am confident Barkley is going to be very good. IMO, no RB will ever be worth the seventh pick, though.
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby real bucs fan » Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:24 am

Naismith wrote:Young Reggie Bush would be a stud in today's NFL.

I am confident Barkley is going to be very good. IMO, no RB will ever be worth the seventh pick, though.

Great point.

Just so we have it down, who are the posters against Barkley at 7? MJW, Bootz, Naismith... a few others at least.
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby Naismith » Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:29 am

I'm against Barkley at 7 even though I think he's going to be very good. After they take him, which I think will happen, I'll watch a few highlight videos and be excited about him. I think it's a fairly large mistake, though.
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby real bucs fan » Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:42 am

Naismith wrote:I'm against Barkley at 7 even though I think he's going to be very good. After they take him, which I think will happen, I'll watch a few highlight videos and be excited about him. I think it's a fairly large mistake, though.

I respect where you're coming from, but I really just don't buy into the notion that RBs have little value though I recognize that is common thinking nowadays. Outside of the QB they have the ball more than anyone on the football team and they are the catalysts of the running game. Now you may think it's old school, but I truly believe even in this day and age, that football games are won and lost by establishing and/or stopping the run.

I do agree with the notion that decent RBs are easier to find, but when you have the chance to draft a special one, you don't pass it up.
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Re: Article about RB Value

Postby Buc2 » Thu Apr 26, 2018 10:11 am

real bucs fan wrote:
Naismith wrote:Young Reggie Bush would be a stud in today's NFL.

I am confident Barkley is going to be very good. IMO, no RB will ever be worth the seventh pick, though.

Great point.

Just so we have it down, who are the posters against Barkley at 7? MJW, Bootz, Naismith... a few others at least.

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