Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Dedicated to College Football and Draft discussion.
post

Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby Doctor » Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:48 pm

It happens every year. Someone crashes the top five ruining everyone's mock draft. Who do you think will do it this year and to which team?
Image
User avatar
Doctor
 
Posts: 4739
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 6:54 pm
Location: Out of the Office. Will return next Fall.
Has thanked: 197 times
Been thanked: 140 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby DreadNaught » Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:54 pm

Bills trading up to the 4th spot. Although I still think the Broncos and Browns just swap spots and is more likley.
Image
User avatar
DreadNaught
 
Posts: 10917
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:18 am
Has thanked: 442 times
Been thanked: 464 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby Doctor » Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:01 pm

While it's not a top 5 I think the Colts will take LB Smith if they stay put at 6. I could see Fitz at 4 to the Browns as well, Peppers was a disappointment his rookie year but it's clear that they value a certain skillset in defenders and Fitz is lightyears ahead of Peppers.
Image
User avatar
Doctor
 
Posts: 4739
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 6:54 pm
Location: Out of the Office. Will return next Fall.
Has thanked: 197 times
Been thanked: 140 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby theBKwhopper » Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:20 pm

At this point? Bradley Chubb.
User avatar
theBKwhopper
 
Posts: 3632
Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2015 3:39 am
Has thanked: 6 times
Been thanked: 70 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby Naismith » Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:33 pm

I think the most likely surprise guy in the top five is Denzel Ward. I think the way off the book surprise guy is Lamar Jackson.
User avatar
Naismith
 
Posts: 1238
Joined: Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:51 pm
Has thanked: 58 times
Been thanked: 72 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby Bootz2004 » Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:37 pm

Saquan Barkley at this point
User avatar
Bootz2004
 
Posts: 21273
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:17 pm
Has thanked: 100 times
Been thanked: 452 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby Konatown » Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:16 pm

Naismith wrote:I think the most likely surprise guy in the top five is Denzel Ward. I think the way off the book surprise guy is Lamar Jackson.

I’m with this, LJ would be a huge shock in the top 10, let alone top 5. Ward can sneakily go to Cleveland’s 2nd pick
Konatown
 
Posts: 897
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 9:56 pm
Has thanked: 41 times
Been thanked: 17 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby Konatown » Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:17 pm

I’ll throw one out there, Baker Mayfield goes #1 to Cleveland
Konatown
 
Posts: 897
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 9:56 pm
Has thanked: 41 times
Been thanked: 17 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby Super K » Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:25 pm

McGlinchey OT Notre Dame...

Teams need franchise LTs as bad as they do QBs and pass rushers.....

Someone is gonna reach for him to fill out their roster...

Gun to my head, Cleveland at #4 to replace Joe "HOF" Thomas...
User avatar
Super K
 
Posts: 6232
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 3:26 pm
Has thanked: 0 time
Been thanked: 179 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby beardmcdoug » Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:39 pm

Super K wrote:McGlinchey OT Notre Dame...

Teams need franchise LTs as bad as they do QBs and pass rushers.....

Someone is gonna reach for him to fill out their roster...

Gun to my head, Cleveland at #4 to replace Joe "HOF" Thomas...


that would be such a Browns move... I think its a great prediction
User avatar
beardmcdoug
 
Posts: 2312
Joined: Mon Sep 12, 2016 12:30 pm
Has thanked: 248 times
Been thanked: 158 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby terrytate » Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:22 pm

I am not sure anything would be a surprise. The biggest one would be if the Jets were the only team to take a QB. Since that would screw us the most, it's most likely to happen.
User avatar
terrytate
 
Posts: 2091
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:49 am
Has thanked: 11 times
Been thanked: 82 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby BucaRican » Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:07 pm

This is what will surprise me and still have me like, "that makes sense" ... Call me crazy but next yrs class is predicted to be weak at QB. Although Milton of UCF will fly low on the radar.

5 of the top 5 picks are QBs

With both Buffalo and the Cardinals moving in.

1.) Cleveland - Josh Allen QB

2.) Buffalo (via Giants) - Josh Rosen QB

3.) Jets (via Colts) Sam Darnold QB

4.) Arizona (via Cleveland)- BAKER MAYFIELD QB

5.) Denver - Lamar Jackson QB

Okay I know this is a little crazy, but if Cleveland does the dumb Cleveland thing and goes QB one instead of grabbing the best player in the draft, it will set up a run. I may have exaggerated with 5 of 5 but 4 of 5 is not out of the question.
Image
BucaRican
 
Posts: 678
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5 times
Been thanked: 7 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby Bootz2004 » Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:11 pm

BucaRican wrote:This is what will surprise me and still have me like, "that makes sense" ... Call me crazy but next yrs class is predicted to be weak at QB. Although Milton of UCF will fly low on the radar.

5 of the top 5 picks are QBs

With both Buffalo and the Cardinals moving in.

1.) Cleveland - Josh Allen QB

2.) Buffalo (via Giants) - Josh Rosen QB

3.) Jets (via Colts) Sam Darnold QB

4.) Arizona (via Cleveland)- BAKER MAYFIELD QB

5.) Denver - Lamar Jackson QB

Okay I know this is a little crazy, but if Cleveland does the dumb Cleveland thing and goes QB one instead of grabbing the best player in the draft, it will set up a run. I may have exaggerated with 5 of 5 but 4 of 5 is not out of the question.


If Cleveland does the dumb Cleveland thing in this draft it would be drafting a non QB at #1. They've got to get the best QB for them at 1.
User avatar
Bootz2004
 
Posts: 21273
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:17 pm
Has thanked: 100 times
Been thanked: 452 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby BucaRican » Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:19 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
BucaRican wrote:This is what will surprise me and still have me like, "that makes sense" ... Call me crazy but next yrs class is predicted to be weak at QB. Although Milton of UCF will fly low on the radar.

5 of the top 5 picks are QBs

With both Buffalo and the Cardinals moving in.

1.) Cleveland - Josh Allen QB

2.) Buffalo (via Giants) - Josh Rosen QB

3.) Jets (via Colts) Sam Darnold QB

4.) Arizona (via Cleveland)- BAKER MAYFIELD QB

5.) Denver - Lamar Jackson QB

Okay I know this is a little crazy, but if Cleveland does the dumb Cleveland thing and goes QB one instead of grabbing the best player in the draft, it will set up a run. I may have exaggerated with 5 of 5 but 4 of 5 is not out of the question.


If Cleveland does the dumb Cleveland thing in this draft it would be drafting a non QB at #1. They've got to get the best QB for them at 1.


What if all 4 of the top qbs are graded pretty close? I know the grade on Rosen, Allen, and Darnold is pretty close. Going the best player in the draft Barkley and hoping 1 of the 3 QBs is available at 4 would be the move.
Image
BucaRican
 
Posts: 678
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5 times
Been thanked: 7 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby Bootz2004 » Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:25 pm

BucaRican wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
If Cleveland does the dumb Cleveland thing in this draft it would be drafting a non QB at #1. They've got to get the best QB for them at 1.


What if all 4 of the top qbs are graded pretty close? I know the grade on Rosen, Allen, and Darnold is pretty close. Going the best player in the draft Barkley and hoping 1 of the 3 QBs is available at 4 would be the move.


The grade may be close for the media. For teams with specific schemes and their own grades and evaluating processes, if they come to the conclusion that the grade is "close" on 4 prospects then they haven't done their jobs correctly. You gamble with any other position except QB. If they like Josh Allen best, take him. Don't assume he'll be there at 4 or that you'll be fine with Rosen or Mayfield.

That said, what you're saying makes no sense. If they have to hope 1 of 3 or 4 QBs will be there at 4 that means you think QBs are going 2nd and 3rd. If that's the case Cleveland still gets their pick of top non QB at 4. Even at 5 if they trade back 1 spot with Denver. They cannot screw this up. They have a chance to get the QB of their choice, get him. Dont let The New York teams decide for you.
User avatar
Bootz2004
 
Posts: 21273
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:17 pm
Has thanked: 100 times
Been thanked: 452 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby Four Verticals » Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:47 pm

Naismith wrote:I think the most likely surprise guy in the top five is Denzel Ward. I think the way off the book surprise guy is Lamar Jackson.


I'll second the Ward nomination.
Four Verticals
 
Posts: 590
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 3:12 pm
Has thanked: 12 times
Been thanked: 8 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby BucaRican » Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:47 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
BucaRican wrote:
What if all 4 of the top qbs are graded pretty close? I know the grade on Rosen, Allen, and Darnold is pretty close. Going the best player in the draft Barkley and hoping 1 of the 3 QBs is available at 4 would be the move.


The grade may be close for the media. For teams with specific schemes and their own grades and evaluating processes, if they come to the conclusion that the grade is "close" on 4 prospects then they haven't done their jobs correctly. You gamble with any other position except QB. If they like Josh Allen best, take him. Don't assume he'll be there at 4 or that you'll be fine with Rosen or Mayfield.

That said, what you're saying makes no sense. If they have to hope 1 of 3 or 4 QBs will be there at 4 that means you think QBs are going 2nd and 3rd. If that's the case Cleveland still gets their pick of top non QB at 4. Even at 5 if they trade back 1 spot with Denver. They cannot screw this up. :D They have a chance to get the QB of their choice, get him. Dont let The New York teams decide for you.


Actually just because they have them graded close, does not mean they haven't done there job.

For example the Bucs had Winston and Mariota graded equally: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/ex-bucs-executive-reveals-how-close-mariota-winston-decision-was-in-draft
Image
BucaRican
 
Posts: 678
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5 times
Been thanked: 7 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby MJW » Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:15 pm

BucaRican wrote:5.) Denver - Lamar Jackson QB


Lamar Jackson's mechanics are a bloody mess. He's a dart-thrower with bad feet. I'm surprised there's so much buzz about him as a QB. I'm SHOCKED anyone is treating him like a 1st round QB. If he goes in the top five, I'd strongly suggest that GM update his resume, even if it's John Elway. That would be insane.
Image
User avatar
MJW
 
Posts: 7916
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:17 am
Location: Nebraska
Has thanked: 184 times
Been thanked: 330 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby MJW » Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:24 am

Honestly, I could see Mason Rudolph going a lot higher than anyone is predicting. He's not a superstar, but when you look at some of the QBs who've gone 1st round in recent years, he's as good or better than a lot of them. I'm not sure Mitch Trubisky was a better prospect. Paxton Lynch wasn't. Bridgewater wasn't. ETC. We could see four guys go 1-4 and then someone trade into the top ten for Rudolph.
Image
User avatar
MJW
 
Posts: 7916
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:17 am
Location: Nebraska
Has thanked: 184 times
Been thanked: 330 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby Bootz2004 » Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:36 am

MJW wrote:Honestly, I could see Mason Rudolph going a lot higher than anyone is predicting. He's not a superstar, but when you look at some of the QBs who've gone 1st round in recent years, he's as good or better than a lot of them. I'm not sure Mitch Trubisky was a better prospect. Paxton Lynch wasn't. Bridgewater wasn't. ETC. We could see four guys go 1-4 and then someone trade into the top ten for Rudolph.


Rudolph? Really? I'd need to be convinced about him. What are you seeing?
User avatar
Bootz2004
 
Posts: 21273
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:17 pm
Has thanked: 100 times
Been thanked: 452 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby MJW » Wed Mar 21, 2018 1:03 am

Bootz2004 wrote:
MJW wrote:Honestly, I could see Mason Rudolph going a lot higher than anyone is predicting. He's not a superstar, but when you look at some of the QBs who've gone 1st round in recent years, he's as good or better than a lot of them. I'm not sure Mitch Trubisky was a better prospect. Paxton Lynch wasn't. Bridgewater wasn't. ETC. We could see four guys go 1-4 and then someone trade into the top ten for Rudolph.


Rudolph? Really? I'd need to be convinced about him. What are you seeing?


I'm really not a fan. But worse QBs have gone in the first. I can see a team looking at his size/character/production and talking themselves into it.
Image
User avatar
MJW
 
Posts: 7916
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:17 am
Location: Nebraska
Has thanked: 184 times
Been thanked: 330 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby Naismith » Wed Mar 21, 2018 7:24 am

BucaRican wrote:For example the Bucs had Winston and Mariota graded equally: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/ex-bucs-executive-reveals-how-close-mariota-winston-decision-was-in-draft


The easiest way to know that's not true is that the Bucs took Winston rather than the flawless character Mariota.
User avatar
Naismith
 
Posts: 1238
Joined: Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:51 pm
Has thanked: 58 times
Been thanked: 72 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby real bucs fan » Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:03 am

I think Ward as well. Bucky Brooks just tweeted that he thinks Ward is the 3rd best player in this draft after Barkley/Chubb. I think he's a real option for Cleveland at 4, and he's creeping into my top 3 for the Bucs.
Image
real bucs fan
 
Posts: 7398
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:59 pm
Has thanked: 760 times
Been thanked: 101 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby DreadNaught » Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:12 am

Bootz2004 wrote:
MJW wrote:Honestly, I could see Mason Rudolph going a lot higher than anyone is predicting. He's not a superstar, but when you look at some of the QBs who've gone 1st round in recent years, he's as good or better than a lot of them. I'm not sure Mitch Trubisky was a better prospect. Paxton Lynch wasn't. Bridgewater wasn't. ETC. We could see four guys go 1-4 and then someone trade into the top ten for Rudolph.


Rudolph? Really? I'd need to be convinced about him. What are you seeing?


Ideal size, accurate arm. He lacks mobility and the zip on the ball you'd expect for a QB his size. He does throw a nice deep ball, but you don't see arm strength on the passes that require some zip on them.

Some people subscribe to the old Bill Parcells philosophy when it comes college QBs and Rudolph checks alot of those boxes when it comes experience and accuracy.

I think he's a day 2 guy.
Image
User avatar
DreadNaught
 
Posts: 10917
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:18 am
Has thanked: 442 times
Been thanked: 464 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:15 am

DreadNaught wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
Rudolph? Really? I'd need to be convinced about him. What are you seeing?


Ideal size, accurate arm. He lacks mobility and the zip on the ball you'd expect for a QB his size. He does throw a nice deep ball, but you don't see arm strength on the passes that require some zip on them.

Some people subscribe to the old Bill Parcells philosophy when it comes college QBs and Rudolph checks alot of those boxes when it comes experience and accuracy.

I think he's a day 2 guy.

Yup. His deep ball is great, but he throws behind receivers a lot more than you would like to see on short and crossing routes. Needs more anticipation in his throwing.
Image
User avatar
Mountaineer Buc
 
Posts: 10702
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:15 pm
Has thanked: 100 times
Been thanked: 552 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby Bootz2004 » Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:57 am

DreadNaught wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
Rudolph? Really? I'd need to be convinced about him. What are you seeing?


Ideal size, accurate arm. He lacks mobility and the zip on the ball you'd expect for a QB his size. He does throw a nice deep ball, but you don't see arm strength on the passes that require some zip on them.

Some people subscribe to the old Bill Parcells philosophy when it comes college QBs and Rudolph checks alot of those boxes when it comes experience and accuracy.

I think he's a day 2 guy.


This is where I am as well. Even in a time where QBs are routinely overdrafted I can't see a situation where a team burns a 1st round pick on him. Let alone a top 5 pick. I think his horrible footwork and overall lack of driving the ball will lead to a ton of missed targets at the NFL level. I also don't love his deep ball. I think it hangs up too long. A lot of the "success" comes from the great targets he had at OKState. He's a guy that's going to leave a lot to be desired if a team anoints him their starter.
User avatar
Bootz2004
 
Posts: 21273
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:17 pm
Has thanked: 100 times
Been thanked: 452 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby BucaRican » Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:16 am

MJW wrote:
BucaRican wrote:5.) Denver - Lamar Jackson QB


Lamar Jackson's mechanics are a bloody mess. He's a dart-thrower with bad feet. I'm surprised there's so much buzz about him as a QB. I'm SHOCKED anyone is treating him like a 1st round QB. If he goes in the top five, I'd strongly suggest that GM update his resume, even if it's John Elway. That would be insane.


He is, but both Tebow and Johnny Football went in the first round out of desperation. Once that QB run happens teams will get desperate. Jackson will be interesting, and will put butts in the stands that is for sure.
Image
BucaRican
 
Posts: 678
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5 times
Been thanked: 7 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby Jason Bourne » Wed Mar 21, 2018 1:35 pm

I would say Giants are drafting a QB, in there was any doubt

http://www.nj.com/giants/index.ssf/2018 ... rnold.html
Jason Bourne
 
Posts: 3355
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2015 7:47 am
Location: Clearwater
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 24 times

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby LavonteDavid54 » Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:34 pm

I think Cle takes Fitzpatrick at 4- causes the " oh my" where's Barkley going? Like you said every year , it doesn't go as planned and I think too many people assume they go QB/RB. Peppers played out of his position last year until week 17. Taking Fitzpatrick maximizes both first rd picks .They can get a quality back at 33.Drop off between say Barkley n Michel I don't think is as drastic as Fitzpatrick n the 3rd ranked safety. Also don't sleep on importance of safety play. Pitt,Bal,Sea,Den, GB with Woodson TB ( Lynch) Phi ( Dawkins). You get a guy stopping the run,knocking down passes, breaking up big plays down the seam, redirecting routes, forcing the QB to tuck last second, etc. Tons of plays especially in pass happy fantasy football of today.Could even argue a safety involved in 10-15 plays that he had impact on is more valuable than the one sack a DE may get ( assuming he doesn't get pressure most of the game), or the two tackles against the run.Idk , could just be me talking crazy but Cle is sitting good with early round picks and getting a quality back early 2nd is still very much in reach.Just say Ward, Nelson, Chubb , I could see Barkley being the " it" of this year.
LavonteDavid54
 
Posts: 129
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:52 pm
Has thanked: 16 times
Been thanked: 1 time

Re: Who will be the surprise in the top 5?

Postby MJW » Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:49 pm

DreadNaught wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
Rudolph? Really? I'd need to be convinced about him. What are you seeing?


Ideal size, accurate arm. He lacks mobility and the zip on the ball you'd expect for a QB his size. He does throw a nice deep ball, but you don't see arm strength on the passes that require some zip on them.

Some people subscribe to the old Bill Parcells philosophy when it comes college QBs and Rudolph checks alot of those boxes when it comes experience and accuracy.

I think he's a day 2 guy.


I think that he's probably a 3rd round talent. But so were Christian Ponder, Brand Weeden, Jason Campbell, Patrick Rasmey, etc.

I could see a team - let's say, the Cardinals - looking at him. They have two QBs on the roster, both on one-year deals. They look at Rudolph. He slam-dunks the eye test. He has an NFL arm. Maybe not an elite NFL arm, but certainly good enough. He's been super productive in college. By all accounts, he comes across like a great dude and a leader of men. And you see a lot of similarities and weaknesses with your QB coach, Byron Leftwich. Who better to help him grow?

So, now they have the option to draft a guy like this, who gives them a long-term plan and identity at the position. They'd have him for 4 years, for about $3.5 Mil APR, with just $8 mil to sign. If he turns out to be great, you've likely got 6 years of reasonable control between the 5th year option and the franchise tag. Even with the tag, those numbers work out to be incredibly team-friendly and they'd allow you to focus on other positions while you grow him.

Or, they can draft, I dunno, a wide receiver. And find themselves hoping Sam Bradford stays healthy, and signs an extension. Or Mike Glennon does. Or they're in a position to draft someone ELSE next year.

It's not really tough to see how QBs get overdrafted.
Image
User avatar
MJW
 
Posts: 7916
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:17 am
Location: Nebraska
Has thanked: 184 times
Been thanked: 330 times

Next

post

Return to College Football/Draft Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Naismith and 11 guests