Is the DE going to pass us by?

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Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby mdb1958 » Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:55 pm

When will we begin to talk about trading up to get Chubb or will we. I'm noticing Chubb and Nelson not reaching us now. Were apprehensive about Davenport at 7 and there arent many DE's to get. The free agent list is going to make things overpriced.

Who are you seeing for us from our 2nd pick on? ------------ I dont know why they arent listing Jaylon Ferguson.

Here is a recent list.

4 EDGE BRADLEY CHUBB - NORTH CAROLINA STATE
11 EDGE HAROLD LANDRY - BOSTON COLLEGE
18 EDGE OGBONNIA OKORONKWO - OKLAHOMA
25 EDGE SAM HUBBARD - OHIO STATE
34 EDGE DORANCE ARMSTRONG JR. - KANSAS
35 EDGE MARCUS DAVENPORT - UTSA
56 EDGE ARDEN KEY - LSU
61 EDGE UCHENNA NWOSU - USC
71 EDGE HERCULES MATA'AFA - WASHINGTON STATE
74 EDGE JOSH SWEAT - FLORIDA STATE
78 EDGE TYQUAN LEWIS - OHIO STATE
86 EDGE JEFF HOLLAND - AUBURN
97 EDGE CHAD THOMAS - MIAMI
98 EDGE LORENZO CARTER - GEORGIA
130 EDGE OLASUNKANMI ADENIYI - TOLEDO
132 EDGE JALYN HOLMES - OHIO STATE
142 EDGE KYLIE FITTS - UTAH
146 EDGE DUKE EJIOFOR - WAKE FOREST
164 EDGE MARQUIS HAYNES - MISSISSIPPI
167 EDGE MARCELL FRAZIER - MISSOURI
174 EDGE KENTAVIUS STREET - NORTH CAROLINA STATE
177 EDGE KEMOKO TURAY - RUTGERS
182 EDGE JAVON ROLLAND-JONES - ARKANSAS STATE
184 EDGE JUSTIN LAWLER - SMU
189 EDGE JOJO WICKER - ARIZONA STATE
223 EDGE JACOB PUGH - FLORIDA STATE
262 EDGE K.J. SMITH - BAYLOR
276 EDGE ANDREW TRUMBETTI - NOTRE DAME
284 EDGE JOE OSTMAN - CENTRAL MICHIGAN
290 EDGE JAMES HEARNS - LOUISVILLE
293 EDGE EBENEZER OGUNDEKO - TENNESSEE STATE
330 EDGE CHIKWE OBASIH - WISCONSIN
349 EDGE QUALEN CUNNINGHAM - TEXAS A&M
351 EDGE ADE ARUNA - TULANE
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby real bucs fan » Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:02 pm

I think you pray Chubb falls to 7... a QB run and defenders like Edmunds, Fitz, and Joshua Jackson rising could make it happen. And if he doesn't, you just have to gamble on Day 2, that's just the reality we are facing. The guy I would gamble on is Lorenzo Carter.
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby DreadNaught » Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:08 pm

It's a deep class. Obviously it's ideal Chubb falls to 7, which I think is a better possibility than most. But it's still likely that doesn't happen and the Bucs don't draft an EDGE at 7th overall.

There will be guys on day 2 there for us. I could easily see two day 2 picks on the DLine.
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby Sammich » Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:14 pm

When it comes to the draft you have to play the hand you're dealt and find a balance between BPA and team need. If Chubb is gone we can still improve the line play with somebody like Nelson or Vea.

If you go too far from the balance point between BPA and team need you end up with a poor fit or a player that you expect too much out of and set him up to fail.
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby real bucs fan » Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:41 pm

Sammich wrote:When it comes to the draft you have to play the hand you're dealt and find a balance between BPA and team need. If Chubb is gone we can still improve the line play with somebody like Nelson or Vea.

If you go too far from the balance point between BPA and team need you end up with a poor fit or a player that you expect too much out of and set him up to fail.

I'm a firm believer in always going BPA in round 1 (unless it's a position like QB where you've already got someone), and then targeting needs on Day 2.
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby Sammich » Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:43 pm

real bucs fan wrote:
Sammich wrote:When it comes to the draft you have to play the hand you're dealt and find a balance between BPA and team need. If Chubb is gone we can still improve the line play with somebody like Nelson or Vea.

If you go too far from the balance point between BPA and team need you end up with a poor fit or a player that you expect too much out of and set him up to fail.

I'm a firm believer in always going BPA in round 1 (unless it's a position like QB where you've already got someone), and then targeting needs on Day 2.


If the BPA for us this year was a WR would you take them? TE? LB?
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby real bucs fan » Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:31 pm

Sammich wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:I'm a firm believer in always going BPA in round 1 (unless it's a position like QB where you've already got someone), and then targeting needs on Day 2.


If the BPA for us this year was a WR would you take them? TE? LB?

If there's clearly no spot for them then no. Its more about not forcing need picks than strict BPA. look at last year with Howard for example.
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby MJW » Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:28 pm

real bucs fan wrote:
Sammich wrote:
If the BPA for us this year was a WR would you take them? TE? LB?

If there's clearly no spot for them then no. Its more about not forcing need picks than strict BPA. look at last year with Howard for example.


"I want the BPA at a position of need" =/= "I want the BPA."
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby real bucs fan » Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:55 pm

MJW wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:If there's clearly no spot for them then no. Its more about not forcing need picks than strict BPA. look at last year with Howard for example.


"I want the BPA at a position of need" =/= "I want the BPA."

I'm talking about not forcing picks. There are a handful of spots on this team where we are stacked: QB, WR, TE, and LB. That still leaves 14 of 22 starting positions that I'd go. Everyone agrees we desperately need an EDGE rusher. What I'm saying is that I'm not going to force one at 7. Basically if Chubb is off the board, I'm not going to force pick Davenport or Arden Key because we're desperate. I'll go with the best talent available outside of those handful of positions where we are loaded.
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby MJW » Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:59 pm

real bucs fan wrote:
MJW wrote:
"I want the BPA at a position of need" =/= "I want the BPA."

I'm talking about not forcing picks. There are a handful of spots on this team where we are stacked: QB, WR, TE, and LB. That still leaves 14 of 22 starting positions that I'd go. Everyone agrees we desperately need an EDGE rusher. What I'm saying is that I'm not going to force one at 7. Basically if Chubb is off the board, I'm not going to force pick Davenport or Arden Key because we're desperate. I'll go with the best talent available outside of those handful of positions where we are loaded.


There's a difference between reaching and taking a risk because a guy has special talent at a position of need. Sometimes "Going BPA" is a way of saying, "Being unwilling to take a risk." Sometimes taking a risk is the only way to fix your problems. Sitting on our thumbs and waiting for a sure-thing-can't-miss-no-flags rusher is why we haven't had a pass rush since 2003.
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby real bucs fan » Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:07 am

MJW wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:I'm talking about not forcing picks. There are a handful of spots on this team where we are stacked: QB, WR, TE, and LB. That still leaves 14 of 22 starting positions that I'd go. Everyone agrees we desperately need an EDGE rusher. What I'm saying is that I'm not going to force one at 7. Basically if Chubb is off the board, I'm not going to force pick Davenport or Arden Key because we're desperate. I'll go with the best talent available outside of those handful of positions where we are loaded.


There's a difference between reaching and taking a risk because a guy has special talent at a position of need. Sometimes "Going BPA" is a way of saying, "Being unwilling to take a risk." Sometimes taking a risk is the only way to fix your problems. Sitting on our thumbs and waiting for a sure-thing-can't-miss-no-flags rusher is why we haven't had a pass rush since 2003.

I'll take risks, just not at #7 overall. Not in a draft like this, not when there are some clear bluechip studs that will be there when we pick. I'll take the risk on a DE on Day 2.
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby MJW » Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:22 am

real bucs fan wrote:
MJW wrote:
There's a difference between reaching and taking a risk because a guy has special talent at a position of need. Sometimes "Going BPA" is a way of saying, "Being unwilling to take a risk." Sometimes taking a risk is the only way to fix your problems. Sitting on our thumbs and waiting for a sure-thing-can't-miss-no-flags rusher is why we haven't had a pass rush since 2003.

I'll take risks, just not at #7 overall. Not in a draft like this, not when there are some clear bluechip studs that will be there when we pick. I'll take the risk on a DE on Day 2.


I have shocking news for you - every pick is a giant risk. Some "blue chip" prospects from recent memory include Trent Richardson, Aaron Curry, Greg Robinson, Sammy Watkins, Rolando McClain...I could go on.

At some point, you have to actually try to fix what's wrong with your roster. We have, objectively, more talent than we did when Licht got here, yet we're not winning more games. There's a reason.
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby real bucs fan » Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:31 am

MJW wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:I'll take risks, just not at #7 overall. Not in a draft like this, not when there are some clear bluechip studs that will be there when we pick. I'll take the risk on a DE on Day 2.


I have shocking news for you - every pick is a giant risk. Some "blue chip" prospects from recent memory include Trent Richardson, Aaron Curry, Greg Robinson, Sammy Watkins, Rolando McClain...I could go on.

At some point, you have to actually try to fix what's wrong with your roster. We have, objectively, more talent than we did when Licht got here, yet we're not winning more games. There's a reason.

Any pick can bust, as in any player can get hurt or start doing drugs and getting suspended or arrested, but there certainly is a variance in risk factor between prospects. Look at Arden Key for example. Then look at a guy like Quenton Nelson. You can't see the difference in risk factor between those two?

We have to improve against the pass, and we have to improve running the ball. We can still improve those things without forcing picks at 7th overall.
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby MJW » Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:38 am

real bucs fan wrote:
MJW wrote:
I have shocking news for you - every pick is a giant risk. Some "blue chip" prospects from recent memory include Trent Richardson, Aaron Curry, Greg Robinson, Sammy Watkins, Rolando McClain...I could go on.

At some point, you have to actually try to fix what's wrong with your roster. We have, objectively, more talent than we did when Licht got here, yet we're not winning more games. There's a reason.

Any pick can bust, as in any player can get hurt or start doing drugs and getting suspended or arrested, but there certainly is a variance in risk factor between prospects. Look at Arden Key for example. Then look at a guy like Quenton Nelson. You can't see the difference in risk factor between those two?

We have to improve against the pass, and we have to improve running the ball. We can still improve those things without forcing picks at 7th overall.


I'm not arguing there are risk factors. I am arguing that bigger rewards sometimes mitigate bigger risks. I don't think the potential reward of a great guard is worth eschewing a riskier but potentially dominant pass rusher. For me, that's not Key, it's Davenport.

And FWIW, I don't think the gap between Nelson and Will Hernandez is nearly as large as the gap between Davenport and, say, Duke Ejiofor. There will still be excellent guard prospects in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. There will not be very many excellent rush prospects, however.

We need to stop trying to accumulate the most talent and start building the best team. Ignoring our pass rush, or trying to fix it with more flyers and band-aids, and we're 5-11 until the end of time, no matter how good our Mel Kiper draft grade is.
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby real bucs fan » Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:43 am

MJW wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:Any pick can bust, as in any player can get hurt or start doing drugs and getting suspended or arrested, but there certainly is a variance in risk factor between prospects. Look at Arden Key for example. Then look at a guy like Quenton Nelson. You can't see the difference in risk factor between those two?

We have to improve against the pass, and we have to improve running the ball. We can still improve those things without forcing picks at 7th overall.


I'm not arguing there are risk factors. I am arguing that bigger rewards sometimes mitigate bigger risks. I don't think the potential reward of a great guard is worth eschewing a riskier but potentially dominant pass rusher. For me, that's not Key, it's Davenport.

And FWIW, I don't think the gap between Nelson and Will Hernandez is nearly as large as the gap between Davenport and, say, Duke Ejiofor. There will still be excellent guard prospects in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. There will not be very many excellent rush prospects, however.

We need to stop trying to accumulate the most talent and start building the best team. Ignoring our pass rush, or trying to fix it with more flyers and band-aids, and we're 5-11 until the end of time, no matter how good our Mel Kiper draft grade is.

I like Hernandez, believe I was the first on this board to mention him, but there's a big difference between he and Nelson- and that's their movement skills where the difference is massive. Nelson is a rare athlete at the position while Hernandez is a slug.

The difference between those 2 is far, far greater than the difference between Davenport and say Lorenzo Carter. I mean, what is the difference between those 2 even? Carter is every bit the raw physical freak. Heck he's an even bigger freak.
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby MJW » Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:56 am

real bucs fan wrote:
MJW wrote:
I'm not arguing there are risk factors. I am arguing that bigger rewards sometimes mitigate bigger risks. I don't think the potential reward of a great guard is worth eschewing a riskier but potentially dominant pass rusher. For me, that's not Key, it's Davenport.

And FWIW, I don't think the gap between Nelson and Will Hernandez is nearly as large as the gap between Davenport and, say, Duke Ejiofor. There will still be excellent guard prospects in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. There will not be very many excellent rush prospects, however.

We need to stop trying to accumulate the most talent and start building the best team. Ignoring our pass rush, or trying to fix it with more flyers and band-aids, and we're 5-11 until the end of time, no matter how good our Mel Kiper draft grade is.

I like Hernandez, believe I was the first on this board to mention him, but there's a big difference between he and Nelson- and that's their movement skills where the difference is massive. Nelson is a rare athlete at the position while Hernandez is a slug.

The difference between those 2 is far, far greater than the difference between Davenport and say Lorenzo Carter. I mean, what is the difference between those 2 even? Carter is every bit the raw physical freak. Heck he's an even bigger freak.


I think you need to watch Hernandez more. He looks like a slug. He moves exceedingly well. His highlight reel involves a ton of pulls and 2nd and 3rd level blocks. But it's neither here nor there. Go with Billy Price, if you want, or Braden Smith. It's a good class for guards.

Or, how about this angle - make Andrew Norwell the highest paid guard in the league, which he's good enough to merit, and cross it off the list. I like that idea even better.

As for Davenport, if you think he's comperable to Carter, you'r underrating him, also, but there's no point in quibbling. Also, your argument is predicated on the idea improving at guard impacts the team as much as improving at edge rush, and we should view these positions on equal footing. That's not remotely true and it's a bad way to build a roster. In fact, it's the same bad way to build a roster that's led us to this point.
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby mdb1958 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:02 am

I'm not still stuck on our first pick, its going to happen with whoever and whenever it happens. Like I said, Chubb and Nelson could be gone, then we do our first pick and if its not a DE then the direction of our whole draft will change just by who is available. To me many of the prospects on that list lean towards having a better career in a 3-4 system. If we decide on a more traditional looking pick will they be what we need or do we try for a down and distance specialist who will come in just to go after the QB?
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby mdb1958 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:23 am

MJW wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:I like Hernandez, believe I was the first on this board to mention him, but there's a big difference between he and Nelson- and that's their movement skills where the difference is massive. Nelson is a rare athlete at the position while Hernandez is a slug.

The difference between those 2 is far, far greater than the difference between Davenport and say Lorenzo Carter. I mean, what is the difference between those 2 even? Carter is every bit the raw physical freak. Heck he's an even bigger freak.


I think you need to watch Hernandez more. He looks like a slug. He moves exceedingly well. His highlight reel involves a ton of pulls and 2nd and 3rd level blocks. But it's neither here nor there. Go with Billy Price, if you want, or Braden Smith. It's a good class for guards.

Or, how about this angle - make Andrew Norwell the highest paid guard in the league, which he's good enough to merit, and cross it off the list. I like that idea even better.

As for Davenport, if you think he's comperable to Carter, you'r underrating him, also, but there's no point in quibbling. Also, your argument is predicated on the idea improving at guard impacts the team as much as improving at edge rush, and we should view these positions on equal footing. That's not remotely true and it's a bad way to build a roster. In fact, it's the same bad way to build a roster that's led us to this point.



Thats the way I prefer my offensive line to be, quick, strong, and came from out of no where's ville.
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby mdb1958 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:28 am

DN told me Edmunds was an off the line playmaking tackler and his stats show he did go after the quarterback some. I'm intrigued by this guy and I wonder if he could develop into much more in the line of hunting the QB.
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby mdb1958 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:56 am

I think we will find out that the difference between Edmunds and and L Carter is quickness, which is why he put up more tackles. The question is can either line up and beat NFL tackles? Or will they look like Howard Jones and not quite getting there.
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby beardmcdoug » Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:11 am

With the colts switching back to a 4-3 and the increased chance Chubb is gone by the time we pick... I hope, for the love of god, we don't just jump for the "next best" DE - a nice guy project player from a small school, who's got all the physical tools but may not love the game (Davenport) - and go for one of the two relative "locks" - Fitz or Nelson - instead.

Just have a bad feeling about Davenport
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby MJW » Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:18 am

beardmcdoug wrote:With the colts switching back to a 4-3 and the increased chance Chubb is gone by the time we pick... I hope, for the love of god, we don't just jump for the "next best" DE - a nice guy project player from a small school, who's got all the physical tools but may not love the game (Davenport) - and go for one of the two relative "locks" - Fitz or Nelson - instead.

Just have a bad feeling about Davenport


I'd absolutely want OBP to feel great about Davenport's mindset for they drafted him. Let me make that clear. If they don't feel like he's fully committed to being great, don't take him.

The thing is, there are always a few prospects described this way in every draft class, and I can think of 1 or 2 guys ever for whom it was an issue (Matt Leinart and Courtney Brown come to mind.)

He's more than "the next guy" though. You look at the best 4-3 ends in the league, most of them are guys like him - big, strong, and athletic. Guys like Ezekiel Ansah and Cam Jordan (who handled the switch to a 4-3 very well) and Julius Peppers and JPP and Carlos Dunlap (a good comp.) He has the skill set to be as good as any of them.

Also, I need to point this out - I wouldn't include Fitz as any sort of "lock." When there's disagreement about where a guy should even play, he's not a lock for anything. He might find his spot and be great (Jalen Ramsey) or he might...not (Jabrill Peppers.)
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby Buc2 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:11 am

mdb1958 wrote:71 EDGE HERCULES MATA'AFA - WASHINGTON STATE


Hercules? His parents named their kid, Hercules? They must have known their kid would play in the NFL one day. That or become a pro wrestler.
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby mdb1958 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:39 am

Buc2 wrote:
mdb1958 wrote:71 EDGE HERCULES MATA'AFA - WASHINGTON STATE


Hercules? His parents named their kid, Hercules? They must have known their kid would play in the NFL one day. That or become a pro wrestler.


Gotta wonder how many of these edge rushers dont know how to play NFL linebacker.
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby Buc2 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:55 am

mdb1958 wrote:
Buc2 wrote:
Hercules? His parents named their kid, Hercules? They must have known their kid would play in the NFL one day. That or become a pro wrestler.


Gotta wonder how many of these edge rushers dont know how to play NFL linebacker.

Hercules can do whatever he wants.
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby beardmcdoug » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:01 am

Buc2 wrote:
mdb1958 wrote:71 EDGE HERCULES MATA'AFA - WASHINGTON STATE


Hercules? His parents named their kid, Hercules? They must have known their kid would play in the NFL one day. That or become a pro wrestler.



Right? Better than "Jihad" at least (Jihad Ward)
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby real bucs fan » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:42 am

MJW wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:I like Hernandez, believe I was the first on this board to mention him, but there's a big difference between he and Nelson- and that's their movement skills where the difference is massive. Nelson is a rare athlete at the position while Hernandez is a slug.

The difference between those 2 is far, far greater than the difference between Davenport and say Lorenzo Carter. I mean, what is the difference between those 2 even? Carter is every bit the raw physical freak. Heck he's an even bigger freak.


I think you need to watch Hernandez more. He looks like a slug. He moves exceedingly well. His highlight reel involves a ton of pulls and 2nd and 3rd level blocks. But it's neither here nor there. Go with Billy Price, if you want, or Braden Smith. It's a good class for guards.

Or, how about this angle - make Andrew Norwell the highest paid guard in the league, which he's good enough to merit, and cross it off the list. I like that idea even better.

As for Davenport, if you think he's comperable to Carter, you'r underrating him, also, but there's no point in quibbling. Also, your argument is predicated on the idea improving at guard impacts the team as much as improving at edge rush, and we should view these positions on equal footing. That's not remotely true and it's a bad way to build a roster. In fact, it's the same bad way to build a roster that's led us to this point.

I have a gauge on who Hernandes is. I think his upside is similar to a Mike Iupati, a guy who is so dominant as an inside road grader you live with his below average movement skills. What makes Nelson special, is that he is elite in every capacity. Though I'm 100% with you on signing Norwell though, and if we did, I'd pass on Nelson at 7.

I definitely understand that edge is way more important than guard, but when you reach for an edge who doesn't live up to expectations, you've ended up not addressing anything.

Davenport I'm still wait and see on. I saw the upside at the Senior Bowl, but he still is too raw for me at 7. But, if he shows major growth between then and the combine, he might start being a legitimate option as that would suggest he's going to learn quick. He's a guy to track at this point.
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby Super K » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:05 am

No freakin way do I take Davenport at 7...no way..

As RBF has said, I'd feel MUCH more comfortable taking Carter or Armstrong in round 2 than Davenport in round 1....

If Chubb is gone, either take Nelson (for the "elite" guy) or Vea (to transform our DL)...
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby DreadNaught » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:26 am

mdb1958 wrote:DN told me Edmunds was an off the line playmaking tackler and his stats show he did go after the quarterback some. I'm intrigued by this guy and I wonder if he could develop into much more in the line of hunting the QB.


Edmunds was used at times as a blitzer, given his size and athleticism it makes sense. But iirc you were asking if Edmunds is an EDGE prospect in the DE thread and I responded that he played off the LOS as a LB and used Anthony Barr as a comp/projection since Barr also rushed the QB while at UCLA but is a 4-3 OLB in the NFL.

I certainly think Edmunds will be used to rush the QB at times, but I don't put him in the EDGE category where he'll do it as a 3-4 OLB or with is hand in the dirt in nickel/dime packages.

Edmunds is a tremendous athlete for his size that can blitz, cover in space (zone), as well as match up m2m vs RBs/TEs. So his value is highest in a position that allows him to do all of that instead what he would bring as an everydown pass rusher.
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Re: Is the DE going to pass us by?

Postby DreadNaught » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:31 am

beardmcdoug wrote:
Buc2 wrote:
Hercules? His parents named their kid, Hercules? They must have known their kid would play in the NFL one day. That or become a pro wrestler.



Right? Better than "Jihad" at least (Jihad Ward)


Anyone named Jihad has the potential to be explosive.
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