Fitz or Nelson?

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Fitz or Nelson

Poll ended at Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:45 pm

Fitz
8
33%
Nelson
16
67%
 
Total votes : 24

Re: Fitz or Nelson?

Postby Bootz2004 » Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:26 am

MJW wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:Maybe he doesn't last until 7... But the guy is basically the perfect guard prospect, the only knock on him is that he's hasn't done it in the NFL yet. He could be an all-pro as a rookie, he's that good.


Keep something in mind: Can't-miss prospects miss all the time.


He won't get it. Not bright enough upstairs. I remember Robert Gallery all too well. Best Olinemen in years is what they called him. Couldn't even make it as a RT.
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Re: Fitz or Nelson?

Postby real bucs fan » Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:27 am

T-Rex Gallery... great comparison.
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Re: Fitz or Nelson?

Postby MJW » Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:35 am

Bootz2004 wrote:
MJW wrote:
Keep something in mind: Can't-miss prospects miss all the time.


He won't get it. Not bright enough upstairs. I remember Robert Gallery all too well. Best Olinemen in years is what they called him. Couldn't even make it as a RT.


Ha, I bought the Gallery hype too. I'd seen him more than most since he played at Iowa. I thought the Chargers should have taken Gallery in the 1st and Jake Grove in the 2nd so LaDanian Tomlinson finally had some blocking. I didn't think they needed Rivers because I was a Drew Brees believer. At least I got THAT part right.

My favorite example ever btw is still Aaron Curry. Between a hundred experts, a hundred friends, and a hundred message boards, you couldn't find one person who thought he'd bust.
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Re: Fitz or Nelson?

Postby I Are Serious Poster » Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:51 am

The problem I have with Nelson is that he has to be a perennial all pro to justify the pick. It's an unreasonable expectation but even if he's not a bust, if he's a good player and occasional pro bowler, well that's just Davin Joseph.
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Re: Fitz or Nelson?

Postby mdb1958 » Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:54 am

I Are Serious Poster wrote:The problem I have with Nelson is that he has to be a perennial all pro to justify the pick. It's an unreasonable expectation but even if he's not a bust, if he's a good player and occasional pro bowler, well that's just Davin Joseph.


The year before someone said he's so good he could be a hall of famer...
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Re: Fitz or Nelson?

Postby mdb1958 » Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:56 am

Prolly thinking of a nother team when that was said - ehh.


Winston: alright man, now I got six seconds to decide...
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Re: Fitz or Nelson?

Postby Super K » Sat Jan 27, 2018 9:01 am

I Are Serious Poster wrote:The problem I have with Nelson is that he has to be a perennial all pro to justify the pick. It's an unreasonable expectation but even if he's not a bust, if he's a good player and occasional pro bowler, well that's just Davin Joseph.


Whom we picked in....round #1
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Re: Fitz or Nelson?

Postby Cheb » Sat Jan 27, 2018 9:35 am

I Are Serious Poster wrote:The problem I have with Nelson is that he has to be a perennial all pro to justify the pick. It's an unreasonable expectation but even if he's not a bust, if he's a good player and occasional pro bowler, well that's just Davin Joseph.


You have unrealistic expectations.

First, let me preface by saying that Nelson is good. Very good. I've heard it said, and I agree, that he could be the best run blocker in the NFL the minute he is drafted. His potential is sky high. He's the best offensive guard I've ever scouted and it's not even close.

But if you think that "he has to be a perennial all pro to justify the pick," then you acutely lack historical perspective.

Guess how many All-Pro teams the last ten seventh overall picks have made. Three, in a total of 48 career seasons. Mike Evans made the second team in 2016, Joe Haden made second team in 2013, Aldon Smith made first team in 2012. That's it.

As a group, the last ten seventh overall picks have four career Pro Bowls in a combined 48 career seasons, a rate of 8% per season. For the curious, all those All Pro seasons, plus Haden went again in 2014.

Even if Nelson is "just" Davin Joseph, which is a decent floor comp for him, Davin made the Pro Bowl twice in nine seasons, a rate of 22% per season, nearly three times that of the average seventh overall pick from the last ten drafts. Us getting another Davin Joseph wouldn't be a disaster. If we got a young and injury-free Davin on our current team, he would do wonders for our offensive line.

But Nelson could be more than that. I've been scouting the draft as an enthusiastic amateur for more than fifteen years, and he's the best collegiate interior offensive lineman I've ever seen.
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Re: Fitz or Nelson?

Postby mdb1958 » Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:42 am

Cheb wrote:
I Are Serious Poster wrote:The problem I have with Nelson is that he has to be a perennial all pro to justify the pick. It's an unreasonable expectation but even if he's not a bust, if he's a good player and occasional pro bowler, well that's just Davin Joseph.


You have unrealistic expectations.

First, let me preface by saying that Nelson is good. Very good. I've heard it said, and I agree, that he could be the best run blocker in the NFL the minute he is drafted. His potential is sky high. He's the best offensive guard I've ever scouted and it's not even close.

But if you think that "he has to be a perennial all pro to justify the pick," then you acutely lack historical perspective.

Guess how many All-Pro teams the last ten seventh overall picks have made. Three, in a total of 48 career seasons. Mike Evans made the second team in 2016, Joe Haden made second team in 2013, Aldon Smith made first team in 2012. That's it.

As a group, the last ten seventh overall picks have four career Pro Bowls in a combined 48 career seasons, a rate of 8% per season. For the curious, all those All Pro seasons, plus Haden went again in 2014.

Even if Nelson is "just" Davin Joseph, which is a decent floor comp for him, Davin made the Pro Bowl twice in nine seasons, a rate of 22% per season, nearly three times that of the average seventh overall pick from the last ten drafts. Us getting another Davin Joseph wouldn't be a disaster. If we got a young and injury-free Davin on our current team, he would do wonders for our offensive line.

But Nelson could be more than that. I've been scouting the draft as an enthusiastic amateur for more than fifteen years, and he's the best collegiate interior offensive lineman I've ever seen.



Considering your post, we may actually think long and hard if Chubb and Nelson are both there. That made me wish so bad that the Bears would fear losing him and give up a 2nd rounder to us. Of course they will settle with whoever is left, but maybe they want Nelson way more (just for the reasons Cheb stated)...

Our luck everybody dumps on the QB's.

or

Even worse Chubb is ho-hum here for his first contract and then goes all pro the moment he leaves us.
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Re: Fitz or Nelson?

Postby Buc2 » Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:44 pm

mdb1958 wrote:Prolly thinking of a nother team when that was said - ehh.


Winston: alright man, now I got six seconds to decide scatter...

Fixed it for you.
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Re: Fitz or Nelson?

Postby MJW » Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:16 am

Cheb wrote:
I Are Serious Poster wrote:The problem I have with Nelson is that he has to be a perennial all pro to justify the pick. It's an unreasonable expectation but even if he's not a bust, if he's a good player and occasional pro bowler, well that's just Davin Joseph.


You have unrealistic expectations.

First, let me preface by saying that Nelson is good. Very good. I've heard it said, and I agree, that he could be the best run blocker in the NFL the minute he is drafted. His potential is sky high. He's the best offensive guard I've ever scouted and it's not even close.

But if you think that "he has to be a perennial all pro to justify the pick," then you acutely lack historical perspective.

Guess how many All-Pro teams the last ten seventh overall picks have made. Three, in a total of 48 career seasons. Mike Evans made the second team in 2016, Joe Haden made second team in 2013, Aldon Smith made first team in 2012. That's it.

As a group, the last ten seventh overall picks have four career Pro Bowls in a combined 48 career seasons, a rate of 8% per season. For the curious, all those All Pro seasons, plus Haden went again in 2014.

Even if Nelson is "just" Davin Joseph, which is a decent floor comp for him, Davin made the Pro Bowl twice in nine seasons, a rate of 22% per season, nearly three times that of the average seventh overall pick from the last ten drafts. Us getting another Davin Joseph wouldn't be a disaster. If we got a young and injury-free Davin on our current team, he would do wonders for our offensive line.

But Nelson could be more than that. I've been scouting the draft as an enthusiastic amateur for more than fifteen years, and he's the best collegiate interior offensive lineman I've ever seen.


Let ME preface this by saying that I defer to your expertise on offensive line play, and I have no quarrel if you want to call him an amazing guard prospect.

My area of expertise, inasmuch as I have one, is maximizing resources. Finding value. Cost/Benefit. It's the reason why, even if Aguayo had been Gary Anderson, I didn't want him in the 2nd round. My job involves doing this, and it's something that comes naturally to me.

For any number of reasons, a guard at #7 does not make sense to me in terms of resource allocation. I don't want to write a book right now, but in short:

- It's a limited impact position. Simple enough. Interior linemen, tight ends, 4-3 outside linebackers, safeties...these aren't as import as the positions I didn't name. If you could be good at those other positions, you'd do that first. And that's the decision we might have to make, between Nelson and FItzpatrick, or Ward, or Davenport. I'd rather hit at defensive end or corner than guard. Shoot, I'd rather TRY to hit on those positions.

- It's a position where upgrading to "replacement level" for cheap would ALREADY be a huge upgrade for us as a team, introducing the concept of "diminishing returns." In other words, we could pay $1 to upgrade from a "D" to a "B," or $10,000 to upgrade from a "D" to an "A." I think there are better uses for the ten grand. We had some of the worst guard play in the league last year. Even a league average guard would be a gigantic improvement. I think that's the shrewd play here. Upgrade our huge problem spots on a budget and use our valuable resources on impact position talent.

- This is both an excellent draft class and an excellent free agent class for interior linemen. I think we're a better team with Fitzpatrick/Davenport/Ward and Billy Price or Will Hernandez than we would be with Nelson and a 2nd round defensive back or end. Or even better, with Justin Pugh or Andrew Norwell and both those picks being used on defense.

- The bust rate of guards isn't any lower than the bust rate of any other position. There's often an implication that a great prospect at a "support" position is safer than a great prospect at a premium position. I can think of a lot of guards (tight ends, safeties, outside linebackers) who defy that idea. I get that Nelson has blown you away and that's fine, but people have been blown away by busts before. NFL GMs, every single year, in fact. What I'm saying is, loving the guy doesn't make those other points irrelevant.

Despite all this, I won't lost my poop if we draft him, because I do think we'll have addressed a not-invaluable position for a long time. And unlike kicker, it's not incredibly easy to find great guards. But looking at through the Moneyball prism I use for these things, it's just strike me as another inefficiency from a GM who seems to think efficiency is a communist plot. Which is exactly why we've had the same problem positions since he got here, btw. He takes "good football players" instead of asking himself if the best football player and the best course of action are the same thing.
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Re: Fitz or Nelson?

Postby mdb1958 » Sun Jan 28, 2018 7:53 am

Fitzpatrick/Davenport/Ward


Fitz then Chad Thomas?

Davenport then Mike Hughes?

Ward then Jeff Holland?
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Re: Fitz or Nelson?

Postby I Are Serious Poster » Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:09 am

That's a little similar to my thoughts. The difference between an occasional pro bowler and JAG isn't very far. OG just isn't an impact position unless you genuinely have a HOF caliber player.
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Re: Fitz or Nelson?

Postby Alpha » Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:14 am

MJW wrote:
Cheb wrote:
You have unrealistic expectations.

First, let me preface by saying that Nelson is good. Very good. I've heard it said, and I agree, that he could be the best run blocker in the NFL the minute he is drafted. His potential is sky high. He's the best offensive guard I've ever scouted and it's not even close.

But if you think that "he has to be a perennial all pro to justify the pick," then you acutely lack historical perspective.

Guess how many All-Pro teams the last ten seventh overall picks have made. Three, in a total of 48 career seasons. Mike Evans made the second team in 2016, Joe Haden made second team in 2013, Aldon Smith made first team in 2012. That's it.

As a group, the last ten seventh overall picks have four career Pro Bowls in a combined 48 career seasons, a rate of 8% per season. For the curious, all those All Pro seasons, plus Haden went again in 2014.

Even if Nelson is "just" Davin Joseph, which is a decent floor comp for him, Davin made the Pro Bowl twice in nine seasons, a rate of 22% per season, nearly three times that of the average seventh overall pick from the last ten drafts. Us getting another Davin Joseph wouldn't be a disaster. If we got a young and injury-free Davin on our current team, he would do wonders for our offensive line.

But Nelson could be more than that. I've been scouting the draft as an enthusiastic amateur for more than fifteen years, and he's the best collegiate interior offensive lineman I've ever seen.


Let ME preface this by saying that I defer to your expertise on offensive line play, and I have no quarrel if you want to call him an amazing guard prospect.

My area of expertise, inasmuch as I have one, is maximizing resources. Finding value. Cost/Benefit. It's the reason why, even if Aguayo had been Gary Anderson, I didn't want him in the 2nd round. My job involves doing this, and it's something that comes naturally to me.

For any number of reasons, a guard at #7 does not make sense to me in terms of resource allocation. I don't want to write a book right now, but in short:

- It's a limited impact position. Simple enough. Interior linemen, tight ends, 4-3 outside linebackers, safeties...these aren't as import as the positions I didn't name. If you could be good at those other positions, you'd do that first. And that's the decision we might have to make, between Nelson and FItzpatrick, or Ward, or Davenport. I'd rather hit at defensive end or corner than guard. Shoot, I'd rather TRY to hit on those positions.

- It's a position where upgrading to "replacement level" for cheap would ALREADY be a huge upgrade for us as a team, introducing the concept of "diminishing returns." In other words, we could pay $1 to upgrade from a "D" to a "B," or $10,000 to upgrade from a "D" to an "A." I think there are better uses for the ten grand. We had some of the worst guard play in the league last year. Even a league average guard would be a gigantic improvement. I think that's the shrewd play here. Upgrade our huge problem spots on a budget and use our valuable resources on impact position talent.

- This is both an excellent draft class and an excellent free agent class for interior linemen. I think we're a better team with Fitzpatrick/Davenport/Ward and Billy Price or Will Hernandez than we would be with Nelson and a 2nd round defensive back or end. Or even better, with Justin Pugh or Andrew Norwell and both those picks being used on defense.

- The bust rate of guards isn't any lower than the bust rate of any other position. There's often an implication that a great prospect at a "support" position is safer than a great prospect at a premium position. I can think of a lot of guards (tight ends, safeties, outside linebackers) who defy that idea. I get that Nelson has blown you away and that's fine, but people have been blown away by busts before. NFL GMs, every single year, in fact. What I'm saying is, loving the guy doesn't make those other points irrelevant.

Despite all this, I won't lost my poop if we draft him, because I do think we'll have addressed a not-invaluable position for a long time. And unlike kicker, it's not incredibly easy to find great guards. But looking at through the Moneyball prism I use for these things, it's just strike me as another inefficiency from a GM who seems to think efficiency is a communist plot. Which is exactly why we've had the same problem positions since he got here, btw. He takes "good football players" instead of asking himself if the best football player and the best course of action are the same thing.



This is flawed thinking on so many levels...it's late. I'll address later.
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Re: Fitz or Nelson?

Postby Doctor » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:09 pm

Sorry I'm late to the party y'all.

This is a super hard choice, but the best possible case for us on draft day.
It's literally 1AA Nelson, and 1AB Fitz for me. Note the extra lettering, because it's that close. It's close enough that I'd even factor in need. Yeah, I said it. If we landed say Norwell, I'd tip the scale to Fitz. If we landed Trumaine Johnson or Malcolm Butler, I'd tip the scale to Nelson... more.

Right now? Nelson. I love Fitz and he has a second floor as an all star safety, which is nice to have. I honestly wouldn't mind moving him to safety anyways, depending on how the roster looks. Get the five best players on the field. But not only is Nelson nearly a perfect prospect at the worse position on our OL, he will make holes for our new RB and protect our franchise QB. The ripples there are huge.
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Re: Fitz or Nelson?

Postby Jason Bourne » Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:54 am

this guy

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