Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby Bootz2004 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:15 pm

Super K wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:If I'm looking at a Georgia LB, it's Lorenzo Carter on Day 2.


I'd agree, but I don't love Carter either...but even switching to a 3-4, LVD/Kwon/Beck are all inside Backers..so is Smith..it'd be a wasted pick..

Smith is a monster and will be awesome at the next level


In a 3-4 I'd keep Lavonte outside. He already lines up outside on our 33 alignments and comes with solid pressure. I trust him more to make a stop in the backfield than Kwon, who struggles getting off of blocks and is easily fooled by fakes.
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby Alpha » Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:53 pm

Super K wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:If I'm looking at a Georgia LB, it's Lorenzo Carter on Day 2.


I'd agree, but I don't love Carter either...but even switching to a 3-4, LVD/Kwon/Beck are all inside Backers..so is Smith..it'd be a wasted pick..

Smith is a monster and will be awesome at the next level


Kwon could EASILY move outside. LVD is already an OLB.

Are you ****ing high?
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby Super K » Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:02 pm

Alpha wrote:
Super K wrote:
I'd agree, but I don't love Carter either...but even switching to a 3-4, LVD/Kwon/Beck are all inside Backers..so is Smith..it'd be a wasted pick..

Smith is a monster and will be awesome at the next level


Kwon could EASILY move outside. LVD is already an OLB.

Are you ****ing high?


They're "outside" LBs in our 4-3 scheme...

Not in a 3-4...there's a big difference..

We trot out a 3-4 with Beck/Smith inside with LVD/Kwon at our OLB's and we'd be LUCKY to sniff the 22 sacks we got this year...
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby real bucs fan » Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:08 pm

We aren't switching to a 3-4... and there would be zero purpose...
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby Alpha » Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:30 pm

real bucs fan wrote:We aren't switching to a 3-4... and there would be zero purpose...


This was hypothetical...based on my comment of drafting Smith and moving to a 3-4.

And don't kid yourself...there was talk...serious chatter (not just message board talk)...of us playing a hybrid scheme this past year. And based on our current personnel...the idea isn't as far-fetched as it sounds.

You base your scheme around your personnel...not the other way around. The strength of this defense is our LB corps. Our weakness(es) are our D-line and at CB.

It'll be interesting and telling to see how we go based on who we draft. We draft a Vita Vea (or whatever his name is) or a Smith or a Key? Shifting to a 3-4 wouldn't be the craziest thing I've ever seen...
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby Kress » Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:38 pm

I like the hybrid scheme. Go 4 down one play, and then depending on the situation, pull a lineman out and go 3-4 for an unpredictable pass rush. We have the people to do that.
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby Alpha » Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:42 am

Kress wrote:I like the hybrid scheme. Go 4 down one play, and then depending on the situation, pull a lineman out and go 3-4 for an unpredictable pass rush. We have the people to do that.


THIS is exactly what was discussed locally (and by "official" team oriented websites) before this past year.

We'll see...
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby terrytate » Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:40 am

Super K wrote:
Alpha wrote:
Kwon could EASILY move outside. LVD is already an OLB.

Are you ****ing high?


They're "outside" LBs in our 4-3 scheme...

Not in a 3-4...there's a big difference..

We trot out a 3-4 with Beck/Smith inside with LVD/Kwon at our OLB's and we'd be LUCKY to sniff the 22 sacks we got this year...



Not to mention that every rushing offense we faced would look like the Cornhuskers vs the Gators.

I've said it many times, if Chubb is gone than Nelson is my #2. I know he's "just a guard" but he'd do wonders for our Oline. He'd take arguably the weakest position on the team and make it one of the strongest. While I still have my doubts about Smith, with Nelson the Oline would become a strength and one the rest of the offense will thrive off of...so long as they stay healthy.

I still think taking Chubb may well be a mistake for the Colts. I see Chubb as the best player in the draft but the Colts absolutely have to get some protection for Luck and that guy is going out like David Carr. Maybe taking Oline at 3 isn't the right move but fishing for a trade back would be the smart move, although not one covered in most mocks.
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby mdb1958 » Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:27 am

terrytate wrote:
Super K wrote:
They're "outside" LBs in our 4-3 scheme...

Not in a 3-4...there's a big difference..

We trot out a 3-4 with Beck/Smith inside with LVD/Kwon at our OLB's and we'd be LUCKY to sniff the 22 sacks we got this year...



Not to mention that every rushing offense we faced would look like the Cornhuskers vs the Gators.

I've said it many times, if Chubb is gone than Nelson is my #2. I know he's "just a guard" but he'd do wonders for our Oline. He'd take arguably the weakest position on the team and make it one of the strongest. While I still have my doubts about Smith, with Nelson the Oline would become a strength and one the rest of the offense will thrive off of...so long as they stay healthy.

I still think taking Chubb may well be a mistake for the Colts. I see Chubb as the best player in the draft but the Colts absolutely have to get some protection for Luck and that guy is going out like David Carr. Maybe taking Oline at 3 isn't the right move but fishing for a trade back would be the smart move, although not one covered in most mocks.



If someone is disturbed by taking Nelson at 7, they should post who we should pick instead.
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby pewterpirates » Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:47 pm

DreadNaught wrote:I'd be looking to trade down in this scenario with Chubb, Fitz, and Barkley off the board. But since mocks don't do that I think Nelson would be a great pick in that situation.

No Arden Key anywhere in round 1 here.


You'd want to trade down there, with the best/safest prospect in the whole draft who plays a position of need for us, there for the taking at 7?

If this is the scenario, I FLY to the podium with Nelson's name on my card.
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby DreadNaught » Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:01 pm

pewterpirates wrote:
DreadNaught wrote:I'd be looking to trade down in this scenario with Chubb, Fitz, and Barkley off the board. But since mocks don't do that I think Nelson would be a great pick in that situation.

No Arden Key anywhere in round 1 here.


You'd want to trade down there, with the best/safest prospect in the whole draft who plays a position of need for us, there for the taking at 7?

If this is the scenario, I FLY to the podium with Nelson's name on my card.


If Nelson was the "best/safest prospect in the whole draft" he'd be the first non-QB selected, no?

I agree Guard is position the Bucs need to upgrade, but the same could be said for the Giants, Colts, and Jets. I wouldn't be opposed to drafting Nelson, just not ideal to draft a Guard at 7th overall imo. Nelson would certainly improve a weakness.
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby pewterpirates » Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:16 pm

DreadNaught wrote:If Nelson was the "best/safest prospect in the whole draft" he'd be the first non-QB selected, no?


Not necessarily because there's more of a premium on pass rushers than guards. But I could see Nelson being the second non-QB taken after Chubb or Barkley. And I can definitely see him being the 3rd non-QB taken after Chubb/Barkley/Fitzpatrick. It's all about the position the player plays.

Nelson is a better/safer prospect than Chubb. But Chubb will likely go higher because DE is more of a premium pick than OG.


The 3 most coveted positions in the draft are QB, OT & DE, no?
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby Bootz2004 » Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:21 pm

pewterpirates wrote:
DreadNaught wrote:If Nelson was the "best/safest prospect in the whole draft" he'd be the first non-QB selected, no?


Not necessarily because there's more of a premium on pass rushers than guards. But I could see Nelson being the second non-QB taken after Chubb or Barkley. And I can definitely see him being the 3rd non-QB taken after Chubb/Barkley/Fitzpatrick. It's all about the position the player plays.

Nelson is a better/safer prospect than Chubb. But Chubb will likely go higher because DE is more of a premium pick than OG.


The 3 most coveted positions in the draft are QB, OT & DE, no?


I'd say QB, DE, CB then OT
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby terrytate » Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:26 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
pewterpirates wrote:
Not necessarily because there's more of a premium on pass rushers than guards. But I could see Nelson being the second non-QB taken after Chubb or Barkley. And I can definitely see him being the 3rd non-QB taken after Chubb/Barkley/Fitzpatrick. It's all about the position the player plays.

Nelson is a better/safer prospect than Chubb. But Chubb will likely go higher because DE is more of a premium pick than OG.


The 3 most coveted positions in the draft are QB, OT & DE, no?


I'd say QB, DE, CB then OT



CB is definitely after OT. When was the last time you saw a CB taken #1 overall?
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby real bucs fan » Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:57 pm

We should clarify with LT...
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby Bootz2004 » Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:59 pm

terrytate wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
I'd say QB, DE, CB then OT



CB is definitely after OT. When was the last time you saw a CB taken #1 overall?


When's the last time you saw more OTs taken 1st round than CBs?
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby uscbucsfan » Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:05 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
terrytate wrote:

CB is definitely after OT. When was the last time you saw a CB taken #1 overall?


When's the last time you saw more OTs taken 1st round than CBs?



1. LT is more valuable to a team than a CB, but as you know not all OT are LTs.
2. There are normally more CB prospects available and more positions for them to play.

For example in the 2016 draft there were 33 CBs taken, 22 OTs, both had 5 in the first round.

LT is tied for 2nd with EDGE as the most coveted position on the field and in the draft.

edit: In 2017 there were 32 CBs and 16 OTs drafted.
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby terrytate » Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:38 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
terrytate wrote:

CB is definitely after OT. When was the last time you saw a CB taken #1 overall?


When's the last time you saw more OTs taken 1st round than CBs?



As RBF there said, we should clarify left tackle.

Now, barring injury, how many OT's does a team play in a game compared to CB's?
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby MJW » Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:50 am

My list in a vacuum:

1) The Franchise QB
2) The Wardaddy DE
3) The Elite Pass Pro LT
4) The Shutdown CB
5) The Disruptive/Brick Wall DT

In that order.
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby mdb1958 » Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:05 am

MJW wrote:My list in a vacuum: with mdb autocorrect

1) The Franchise QB
2) The Elite Pass Pro and superb run blocking LT
3) The Wardaddy DE

4) The Shutdown CB
5) The Disruptive/Brick Wall DT

In that order.
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby Deuce » Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:42 am

MJW wrote:My list in a vacuum:

1) The Franchise QB
2) The Wardaddy DE
3) The Elite Pass Pro LT
4) The Shutdown CB
5) The Disruptive/Brick Wall DT

In that order.


Is this what you want or what you think NFL teams want? I feel like DT isn't that high but the rest seems accurate for NFL teams. Maybe LT over DE.

It seems like multiple WRs go in the top 10 every year and at least one busts.
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby uscbucsfan » Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:46 am

Deuce wrote:
MJW wrote:My list in a vacuum:

1) The Franchise QB
2) The Wardaddy DE
3) The Elite Pass Pro LT
4) The Shutdown CB
5) The Disruptive/Brick Wall DT

In that order.


Is this what you want or what you think NFL teams want? I feel like DT isn't that high but the rest seems accurate for NFL teams. Maybe LT over DE.

It seems like multiple WRs go in the top 10 every year and at least one busts.


I would say that list is pretty accurate as a list of what a majority of NFL teams put value in. I agree an argument can be made about replacing DT with a #1 WR.
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby real bucs fan » Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:14 am

I agree with the first 3.

TIER 1
1. QB

TIER 2
2. EDGE RUSHER
3. LEFT TACKLE (though if you don't have the QB, their impact is negated.)

TIER 3

This is where it gets interesting. I think a good way to understand the values is to look at the elite guys across the league at those positions.

(split between O and D)

WR:Brown, Jones
RB: Bell, Gurley
TE: Gronkowski, Kelce
C: Kelce, Mack
OG: Norwell, Decastro

CB: Ramsey, Rhodes
DT: Donald, Cox
LB: Kuechly, Wagner
S: Berry, Smith
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby Sammich » Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:18 pm

real bucs fan wrote:I agree with the first 3.

TIER 1
1. QB

TIER 2
2. EDGE RUSHER
3. LEFT TACKLE (though if you don't have the QB, their impact is negated.)

TIER 3

This is where it gets interesting. I think a good way to understand the values is to look at the elite guys across the league at those positions.

(split between O and D)

WR:Brown, Jones
RB: Bell, Gurley
TE: Gronkowski, Kelce
C: Kelce, Mack
OG: Norwell, Decastro

CB: Ramsey, Rhodes
DT: Donald, Cox
LB: Kuechly, Wagner
S: Berry, Smith


I would agree with this. I think the reason it gets interesting at tier 3 is because of scheme. A power run team will put a bigger premium on guard play. A chunk yardage passing attack values receivers more. Etc, etc.
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby MJW » Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:06 am

uscbucsfan wrote:
Deuce wrote:
Is this what you want or what you think NFL teams want? I feel like DT isn't that high but the rest seems accurate for NFL teams. Maybe LT over DE.

It seems like multiple WRs go in the top 10 every year and at least one busts.


I would say that list is pretty accurate as a list of what a majority of NFL teams put value in. I agree an argument can be made about replacing DT with a #1 WR.


That's reasonable, considering how the game has evolved. It used to be that quarterbacks made receivers. Now receivers can take over games without much help.
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby pewterpirates » Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:54 pm

MJW wrote:It used to be that quarterbacks made receivers. Now receivers can take over games without much help.


Exhibit A:
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby Caradoc » Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:42 pm

DreadNaught wrote:
pewterpirates wrote:
You'd want to trade down there, with the best/safest prospect in the whole draft who plays a position of need for us, there for the taking at 7?

If this is the scenario, I FLY to the podium with Nelson's name on my card.


If Nelson was the "best/safest prospect in the whole draft" he'd be the first non-QB selected, no?


He very well might be.
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby Bootz2004 » Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:34 pm

Caradoc wrote:
DreadNaught wrote:
If Nelson was the "best/safest prospect in the whole draft" he'd be the first non-QB selected, no?


He very well might be.


He won't. I don't think he'll even be the top OL player taken
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby Jason Bourne » Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:51 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
Caradoc wrote:
He very well might be.


He won't. I don't think he'll even be the top OL player taken



I think he will be and it will be us taking him . Not that it has anything to do with it but the Chiefs took a Guard at #15 when Licht was with them . I think it's the right pick , heard somebody say he is zack Martin on steroids.
Last edited by Jason Bourne on Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mel Kiper Jr. mock draft

Postby Bootz2004 » Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:55 pm

Jason Bourne wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
He won't. I don't think he'll even be the top OL player taken



I think he will be and it will be us taking him . Not that it has anything to do with it but the Chiefs took a Guard at about the same spot when Licht was with them . I think it's the right pick , heard somebody say he is zack Martin on steroids.


We may take him. But I don’t think he’s the 1st Olinemen to be taken.

And Jason Licht never worked for the Chiefs and they havent taken an Olinemen 1st round since 2013 when they took Fisher 1st overall. Even if what you said was true the correlation is poor and irrelevant.
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