Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby acmillis » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:09 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
acmillis wrote:Ahhhh so we're going with the short-sighted method here, huh?


Well when does trading down become the best course of action? How long do you have to wait to see results?

I'd say at least 3 seasons later so you may evaluate those trades picks
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby Zarniwoop » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:11 pm

acmillis wrote:Ahhhh so we're going with the short-sighted method here, huh?



Do you expect different from him?

If anyone is interested...In his book, “Misbehaving”, Thaler has a good chapter on the NFL draft. It’s very readable. He has lots of references to the original quant studies too if you want deeper reading
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby Bootz2004 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:17 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:
acmillis wrote:Ahhhh so we're going with the short-sighted method here, huh?



Do you expect different from him?

If anyone is interested...In his book, “Misbehaving”, Thaler has a good chapter on the NFL draft. It’s very readable. He has lots of references to the original quant studies too if you want deeper reading


You're talking out of your was with zero proof that trading back is better than picking at your original slot
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby MJW » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:21 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:
acmillis wrote:Ahhhh so we're going with the short-sighted method here, huh?



Do you expect different from him?

If anyone is interested...In his book, “Misbehaving”, Thaler has a good chapter on the NFL draft. It’s very readable. He has lots of references to the original quant studies too if you want deeper reading


That was a great book. I love pop-economics.
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby Zarniwoop » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:53 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
Zarniwoop wrote:

Do you expect different from him?

If anyone is interested...In his book, “Misbehaving”, Thaler has a good chapter on the NFL draft. It’s very readable. He has lots of references to the original quant studies too if you want deeper reading


You're talking out of your was with zero proof that trading back is better than picking at your original slot



There is plenty of evidence in the book, should you choose to read it. Or don’t. I suspect you will chose the “or don’t”.
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby Zarniwoop » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:54 pm

MJW wrote:
Zarniwoop wrote:

Do you expect different from him?

If anyone is interested...In his book, “Misbehaving”, Thaler has a good chapter on the NFL draft. It’s very readable. He has lots of references to the original quant studies too if you want deeper reading


That was a great book. I love pop-economics.


Generally I can’t stand Thaler because he forever seems to be kneeling at his boy Keynes waist. But when he’s not talking macroeconomic policy he has some good stuff
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby Jason Bourne » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:55 pm

real bucs fan wrote:if we had a top 2 pick and a team wanted to overpay for a QB, then ya trade down.

But we're going to be picking 4th/5th and if we have a shot at either Chubb or Barkley, you take that player.


This
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:00 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:
MJW wrote:
That was a great book. I love pop-economics.


Generally I can’t stand Thaler because he forever seems to be kneeling at his boy Keynes waist. But when he’s not talking macroeconomic policy he has some good stuff


I'll take Keynes over any of those sling blade Austrian school motherfuckers.

How are they gon do economics when they can't even do math.
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby Bootz2004 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:06 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
You're talking out of your was with zero proof that trading back is better than picking at your original slot



There is plenty of evidence in the book, should you choose to read it. Or don’t. I suspect you will chose the “or don’t”.


Talking out of your ass. Got it.
Last edited by Bootz2004 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:11 pm

That wich is presented with evidence, cannot be refuted without evidence.
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby Zarniwoop » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:25 pm

Mountaineer Buc wrote:
Zarniwoop wrote:
Generally I can’t stand Thaler because he forever seems to be kneeling at his boy Keynes waist. But when he’s not talking macroeconomic policy he has some good stuff


I'll take Keynes over any of those sling blade Austrian school motherfuckers.

How are they gon do economics when they can't even do math.



I think maybe you have the schools confused.

You can say the Austrians don’t use good assumptions in their modeling, but the sophistication and accuracy of mathematics in their models is unequalled
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby Noles1724 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:01 pm

Mountaineer Buc wrote:That wich is presented with evidence, cannot be refuted without evidence.


Bootz hit em with the ass statement again! Make sure to throw in a "*****" too. That always does the trick
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:08 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:
Mountaineer Buc wrote:
I'll take Keynes over any of those sling blade Austrian school motherfuckers.

How are they gon do economics when they can't even do math.



I think maybe you have the schools confused.

You can say the Austrians don’t use good assumptions in their modeling, but the sophistication and accuracy of mathematics in their models is unequalled



YOU RUINED THE JOKE!
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby Bootz2004 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:10 pm

Noles1724 wrote:
Mountaineer Buc wrote:That wich is presented with evidence, cannot be refuted without evidence.


Bootz hit em with the ass statement again! Make sure to throw in a "*****" too. That always does the trick



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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby Zarniwoop » Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:47 pm

Mountaineer Buc wrote:
Zarniwoop wrote:

I think maybe you have the schools confused.

You can say the Austrians don’t use good assumptions in their modeling, but the sophistication and accuracy of mathematics in their models is unequalled



YOU RUINED THE JOKE!



Lol, my bad. If a 4 year old can’t understand it, it’s over my head!!
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby terrytate » Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:27 am

Bootz2004 wrote:Ask the Titans and Browns if trading down is the best course of action. The 2 teams they traded down with both have division titles under their belts just a year later while the Browns are winless and the Titans have to fight for a playoff spot.


As long as you go ask the Redskins how well it worked out for them with RG3. You're being a prisoner of the moment here, *****.

On a more serious note, no one is talking about the LT's in this class. Should I assume that the general consensus is that any of them would be a reach at 4-6?
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby MJW » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:14 am

terrytate wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:Ask the Titans and Browns if trading down is the best course of action. The 2 teams they traded down with both have division titles under their belts just a year later while the Browns are winless and the Titans have to fight for a playoff spot.


As long as you go ask the Redskins how well it worked out for them with RG3. You're being a prisoner of the moment here, *****.

On a more serious note, no one is talking about the LT's in this class. Should I assume that the general consensus is that any of them would be a reach at 4-6?


Probably, though there are a few guys who can move up into that range with a strong post-season. Mike McGlinchey got exposed a little bit. He gives up too many pressures to be considered a franchise tackle (watch the Miami tape.) Physically Connor Williams from Texas SHOULD be in that discussion. He's very similar to Tyron Smith, but he's struggled with consistency and health. A lot of people like Chuk Okorafor from Western Michigan. He's 6-6 330 and he has left tackle feet. Orlando Brown Jr. (son of Zeus) is 6'8 360 and is probably, for obvious reasons, an NFL right tackle, but he could be a great one. And my guy is Kolton Miller from UCLA. He reminds me a lot of Nate Solder from the Patriots.

TL/DR: Yes, 4-5 is probably too high for an OT.
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:48 am

MJW wrote:
terrytate wrote:
As long as you go ask the Redskins how well it worked out for them with RG3. You're being a prisoner of the moment here, *****.

On a more serious note, no one is talking about the LT's in this class. Should I assume that the general consensus is that any of them would be a reach at 4-6?


Probably, though there are a few guys who can move up into that range with a strong post-season. Mike McGlinchey got exposed a little bit. He gives up too many pressures to be considered a franchise tackle (watch the Miami tape.) Physically Connor Williams from Texas SHOULD be in that discussion. He's very similar to Tyron Smith, but he's struggled with consistency and health. A lot of people like Chuk Okorafor from Western Michigan. He's 6-6 330 and he has left tackle feet. Orlando Brown Jr. (son of Zeus) is 6'8 360 and is probably, for obvious reasons, an NFL right tackle, but he could be a great one. And my guy is Kolton Miller from UCLA. He reminds me a lot of Nate Solder from the Patriots.

TL/DR: Yes, 4-5 is probably too high for an OT.

I agree. If there was a guy worthy of taking that high in this class we'd be arguing about taking him .
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby Ken Carson » Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:57 pm

PrimeMinister wrote:
Ken Carson wrote:So you'd rather have Chubb than say the 8th, 37tg and a future 1st? Is he really better than the 3 guys we could get with a haul like that from say the Jets?


Yes. Picks aren’t players. If the player you need is sitting there you don’t trade back in hopes to get the same type of player in the future. You trust your scouting and take the player you targeted.

Trading back only makes sense if you don’t believe Chubb to be the player you need.

So draft Gaines Adams, don't trade back for Revis, David Harris and a top 10 future pick (just don't take Vernon Gholston with it)?

I'm not in for pigeonholing your number 1 pick on a position of need. Hell, the Bucs did that in the 90s with DE after DE in the first round until signing Simeon fixed it. Imagine if we had some offensive talent instead of Marcus Jones and Regan Upshaw in back-to-back drafts. They eventually fixed the position with Steve White, Greg Spires and Simeon Rice who the team spent 0 picks on between 1997 and 2000.
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby pewterpirates » Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:03 pm

I think we'll be picking 5th. I have a feeling the Colts beat the Texans.
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby Konatown » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:43 pm

pewterpirates wrote:I think we'll be picking 5th. I have a feeling the Colts beat the Texans.

Same. Colts early the early favorites in that game and DeAndre Hopkins has been ruled out. If Saints take care of business then we’ll be picking 5th.
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby Four Verticals » Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:01 am

Ken Carson wrote: Imagine if we had some offensive talent instead of Marcus Jones and Regan Upshaw in back-to-back drafts.


Same draft.
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby Naismith » Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:28 am

Konatown wrote:If Saints take care of business then we’ll be picking 5th.


Does that game have an impact on the draft order for the Bucs?
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby Alpha » Fri Dec 29, 2017 1:59 am

Naismith wrote:
Konatown wrote:If Saints take care of business then we’ll be picking 5th.


Does that game have an impact on the draft order for the Bucs?



Yes...but there is another.

The other game that matters is the HOU/IND game.

Currently, we lose a tie breaker with HOU and are picking 5. IF HOU wins and we lose, we pick 4.

IF we win...God help us all.
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby Alpha » Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:08 am

MJW wrote:
terrytate wrote:
As long as you go ask the Redskins how well it worked out for them with RG3. You're being a prisoner of the moment here, *****.

On a more serious note, no one is talking about the LT's in this class. Should I assume that the general consensus is that any of them would be a reach at 4-6?


Probably, though there are a few guys who can move up into that range with a strong post-season. Mike McGlinchey got exposed a little bit. He gives up too many pressures to be considered a franchise tackle (watch the Miami tape.)


There is NO WAY ON GOD'S GREEN EARTH I take McGlinchey at 4-6. He was absolutely ABUSED by Miami. And that's the ONLY game I saw him play. IF he were injured and dominated in his other games, my mind might change...but until/unless that happened...no way. Not that early. I'll take my chances with Turnstile Smith for another year.

An interesting side note...Q. Nelson played LT for ND, last year. He didn't suck. Granted...at 4-5, I don't think we take Nelson (Chubb or Fitz SHOULD be available) but if we slip a spot or 3...Nelson would be my guy.
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby mdb1958 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:26 am

I'd even consider Wilkins from Clemson. No way that first pick isnt defense in my process.
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby mdb1958 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:32 am

I think the closest thing to instant magic will point towards that defensive line.
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby Bucs N Beers » Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:45 am

The only way I trade back is if Chubb gets picked top 3 and someone brings a Kings ransom for Saquon Barkley. There a few teams picking behind us that would be an option.

That being said, if Chubb is there you run to the podium.
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby real bucs fan » Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:11 am

You can address needs in the other rounds with targets, but first round should be BPA. Reaching for a for a lineman if Chubb is off the board would be a huge mistake.
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Re: Projection that Bucs will pick #6 overall

Postby Cheb » Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:29 am

real bucs fan wrote:You can address needs in the other rounds with targets, but first round should be BPA. Reaching for a for a lineman if Chubb is off the board would be a huge mistake.


You could argue that Key wouldn't be a reach, but overall I agree with the general thrust of your post.
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