Draft Watch: Running Backs

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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby DreadNaught » Sat Apr 21, 2018 1:02 pm

Bucs would be lucky to get Barkley at 7.

This draft is the most unpredictable I can remember in the top 10.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby Bootz2004 » Sat Apr 21, 2018 6:31 pm

Barkley doesn't help us become a championship level team. Not in the way a top defender would.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby real bucs fan » Sat Apr 21, 2018 7:44 pm

Barkley would be a franchise changer. We'd go from a bottom 10 rushing team to top 10. He'd open things up for the pass game and allow Winston to take it to the next level.

There isn't one player in this draft who would impact this franchise more than Barkley would.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby Super K » Sat Apr 21, 2018 7:49 pm

real bucs fan wrote:Nelson would be a franchise changer. We'd go from a bottom 10 rushing team to top 10. He'd open things up for the pass game and allow Winston to take it to the next level.



FIFY
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby real bucs fan » Sat Apr 21, 2018 7:52 pm

Nelson is a tremendous prospect, but a guard isn't going to help us the way a 3 down superstar RB would.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby Bootz2004 » Sat Apr 21, 2018 7:52 pm

real bucs fan wrote:Barkley would be a franchise changer. We'd go from a bottom 10 rushing team to top 10. He'd open things up for the pass game and allow Winston to take it to the next level.

There isn't one player in this draft who would impact this franchise more than Barkley would.


Novelty things like top 10 in rushing and "franchise changer" matter to you. I don't necessarily believe he's a franchise changer. Certainly not in the way a top QB is. What matters to the people who know football here are wins. Most of us couldn't care less if we were top 10 in rushing. We want to win.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby real bucs fan » Sat Apr 21, 2018 8:57 pm

Ya we totes should draft a top 10 QB then. :roll:
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby real bucs fan » Sat Apr 21, 2018 8:59 pm

Barkley would lead to more big plays and less turnovers. Some football minds would tell you those 2 things impact wins and losses...
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby Naismith » Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:10 pm

No chance a RB leads to more big plays than better pass protection.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby Bootz2004 » Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:18 pm

Naismith wrote:No chance a RB leads to more big plays than better pass protection.


Everyone knows this except you know who. Gonna start calling him Merril Hodge soon.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby mdb1958 » Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:22 pm

I'm willing to offer him a small percentage that he could be right. Especially if him and Winston hit it off really good with the passing game.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby mdb1958 » Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:55 pm

OK, I just realized you were talking about Chase Edmonds, my bad SK.

Again that was Chase Edmonds from Fordham.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby Super K » Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:08 pm

mdb1958 wrote:OK, I just realized you were talking about Chase Edmonds, my bad SK.

Again that was Chase Edmonds from Fordham.


Correct...

HOWEVER, incorrect thread choice...

But you're batting .500...not too shabby...
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby terrytate » Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:25 pm

The thing you guys are overlooking is that we don't get to decide which of the big prospects is there for us. Blanket statements like Barkley vs some unnamed defender or Barkley vs an elite blocker are meaningless without names. I would take Chubb or Nelson over Barkley. But, if those guys are gone and Barkley is there, I take Barkley over everyone else with the possible exception of James.

As I keep saying, look at how Kamara transformed the Saints offense. They were blowing people offensively and Brees threw for less yardage than any season since 2005. He was, however, much more effecient. His sacks taken and picks thrown were way down, while his QB rating and accuracy were way up. That's the effect of a good ground game and a back who excels at receiving and YAC.

We don't necessarily have to draft Barkley to achieve that, it can be done with improved blocking and a later round back. The thing is that Barkley IS a better prospect than the rest of the RB's, even better by a substantial margin than Kamara. After Chubb, Nelson and perhaps James, no one else is in the same ballpark with Barkley a draft prospect. We have a glaring need at RB too, moreso than safety IMO. Now, keep in mind that Barkley is one of the best receiving backs to come out in some time. He isn't just a runner, he is a passing weapon for Jameis. Imagine someone blitzes us and Jameis gets the ball out to Barkley, who is out there with a head of steam, Evans blocking and nothing but DB's ahead of him.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby mdb1958 » Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:34 pm

Super K wrote:
mdb1958 wrote:OK, I just realized you were talking about Chase Edmonds, my bad SK.

Again that was Chase Edmonds from Fordham.


Correct...

HOWEVER, incorrect thread choice...

But you're batting .500...not too shabby...


Thats Chase Edmonds RB from Fordham!
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby real bucs fan » Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:17 am

Naismith wrote:No chance a RB leads to more big plays than better pass protection.

You seem to not be aware of the synergistic effect of a run game- especially a game breaker like Barkley.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby Rocker » Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:47 am

real bucs fan wrote:
Naismith wrote:No chance a RB leads to more big plays than better pass protection.

You seem to not be aware of the synergistic effect of a run game- especially a game breaker like Barkley.


And you conveniently ignore that our RBs were contacted within barely more than one yard last season, on average. It doesn’t matter what kind of game breaker you are when the opponent can get their hands on you that quickly, that easily, and that consistently.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby Bootz2004 » Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:54 am

terrytate wrote:The thing you guys are overlooking is that we don't get to decide which of the big prospects is there for us. Blanket statements like Barkley vs some unnamed defender or Barkley vs an elite blocker are meaningless without names. I would take Chubb or Nelson over Barkley. But, if those guys are gone and Barkley is there, I take Barkley over everyone else with the possible exception of James.

As I keep saying, look at how Kamara transformed the Saints offense. They were blowing people offensively and Brees threw for less yardage than any season since 2005. He was, however, much more effecient. His sacks taken and picks thrown were way down, while his QB rating and accuracy were way up. That's the effect of a good ground game and a back who excels at receiving and YAC.

We don't necessarily have to draft Barkley to achieve that, it can be done with improved blocking and a later round back. The thing is that Barkley IS a better prospect than the rest of the RB's, even better by a substantial margin than Kamara. After Chubb, Nelson and perhaps James, no one else is in the same ballpark with Barkley a draft prospect. We have a glaring need at RB too, moreso than safety IMO. Now, keep in mind that Barkley is one of the best receiving backs to come out in some time. He isn't just a runner, he is a passing weapon for Jameis. Imagine someone blitzes us and Jameis gets the ball out to Barkley, who is out there with a head of steam, Evans blocking and nothing but DB's ahead of him.


Kamara as an example reinforces what most are saying. That you don’t need to shell out a top 10 pick for a back. You also have to look at the way he was utilized. He was a change up back for the Saints. Just 120 carries or 7 and a half a game. Would you call 7 carries transforming the ground game? Of course not. Would you advocate using Barkley in such a way if we drafted him? Of course not.

The other key factor missing in the Saints transformation is their defense. Their defense got off the field more and allowed their offense chances to get a lead AND sit on it with the run game. The bulk of those carries went to Ingram. Brees didn’t have to throw as much because late in games the Saints were winning. That’s thanks to their defense.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby Bootz2004 » Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:57 am

real bucs fan wrote:
Naismith wrote:No chance a RB leads to more big plays than better pass protection.

You seem to not be aware of the synergistic effect of a run game- especially a game breaker like Barkley.


The best thing for a run game is a defense that can help you maintain a lead. Gives the run game more opportunities to shine, grind away, eat up clock, get 1st downs.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby DreadNaught » Sun Apr 22, 2018 9:09 am

Bootz2004 wrote:
terrytate wrote:The thing you guys are overlooking is that we don't get to decide which of the big prospects is there for us. Blanket statements like Barkley vs some unnamed defender or Barkley vs an elite blocker are meaningless without names. I would take Chubb or Nelson over Barkley. But, if those guys are gone and Barkley is there, I take Barkley over everyone else with the possible exception of James.

As I keep saying, look at how Kamara transformed the Saints offense. They were blowing people offensively and Brees threw for less yardage than any season since 2005. He was, however, much more effecient. His sacks taken and picks thrown were way down, while his QB rating and accuracy were way up. That's the effect of a good ground game and a back who excels at receiving and YAC.

We don't necessarily have to draft Barkley to achieve that, it can be done with improved blocking and a later round back. The thing is that Barkley IS a better prospect than the rest of the RB's, even better by a substantial margin than Kamara. After Chubb, Nelson and perhaps James, no one else is in the same ballpark with Barkley a draft prospect. We have a glaring need at RB too, moreso than safety IMO. Now, keep in mind that Barkley is one of the best receiving backs to come out in some time. He isn't just a runner, he is a passing weapon for Jameis. Imagine someone blitzes us and Jameis gets the ball out to Barkley, who is out there with a head of steam, Evans blocking and nothing but DB's ahead of him.


Kamara as an example reinforces what most are saying. That you don’t need to shell out a top 10 pick for a back. You also have to look at the way he was utilized. He was a change up back for the Saints. Just 120 carries or 7 and a half a game. Would you call 7 carries transforming the ground game? Of course not. Would you advocate using Barkley in such a way if we drafted him? Of course not.

The other key factor missing in the Saints transformation is their defense. Their defense got off the field more and allowed their offense chances to get a lead AND sit on it with the run game. The bulk of those carries went to Ingram. Brees didn’t have to throw as much because late in games the Saints were winning. That’s thanks to their defense.


Good post, but that same argument can be made for why you don't shell out a top 10 pick on a Guard either and gets us back in the positional value debate.

If you have faith in your Oline coach why spend a top 10 pick on a Guard? As great as the Cowboys Oline is, when they didn't have both a good QB AND RB in the line-up they are below a .500 team.

Personally I'm not against Barkley or Nelson at 7 since they carry the highest grades and will imo be better at their respective positions than anyone else in this class other than maybe Fitz/James (who also get knocked for position value). But I understand both sides of argument.

I don't think Barkley or Chubb will be there at 7 and it will be a decision of Fitz, James, or Nelson for the Bucs. I like all those players.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby mdb1958 » Sun Apr 22, 2018 9:10 am

real bucs fan wrote:Nelson is a tremendous prospect, but a guard isn't going to help us the way a 3 down superstar RB would.


We could always get one next year. (Let this apply to everything we cant get now).
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby Naismith » Sun Apr 22, 2018 9:26 am

real bucs fan wrote:
Naismith wrote:No chance a RB leads to more big plays than better pass protection.

You seem to not be aware of the synergistic effect of a run game- especially a game breaker like Barkley.


There's been research done that a good running game doesn't actually improve the effectiveness of play action. I read it when it was tweeted out a few months ago but haven't been able to find it again. When I do, I'll post it. There was another article about how the Patriots hope teams try to establish the run due to the inefficiency of it vs passing the ball. There's a reason that they don't use high picks on RBs. I believe the average running play last year went for about 4 yards and the average passing play went for 6.

Barkley would certainly be an exciting player for the Bucs. I don't think anyone doubts that. It's just a terrible use of a valuable asset like a top 7 pick, both in terms of building a team on the field and building a team through salary cap allocation.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby real bucs fan » Sun Apr 22, 2018 9:27 am

The Vikings for example were able to completely overhaul their OL in 1 offseason, and didn't need to spend a top 10 pick to do it.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby real bucs fan » Sun Apr 22, 2018 9:30 am

Naismith wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:You seem to not be aware of the synergistic effect of a run game- especially a game breaker like Barkley.


There's been research done that a good running game doesn't actually improve the effectiveness of play action. I read it when it was tweeted out a few months ago but haven't been able to find it again. When I do, I'll post it. There was another article about how the Patriots hope teams try to establish the run due to the inefficiency of it vs passing the ball. There's a reason that they don't use high picks on RBs. I believe the average running play last year went for about 4 yards and the average passing play went for 6.

Barkley would certainly be an exciting player for the Bucs. I don't think anyone doubts that. It's just a terrible use of a valuable asset like a top 7 pick, both in terms of building a team on the field and building a team through salary cap allocation.

A guy who would touch the ball 20+ times isn't worth a top 10 pick, but an OG is? I don't think the Rams, Cowboys, or Jags regret their recent top 10 RBs...

And look at the most recent top 10 OGs... Robinson, Cooper, Warmack...
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby Naismith » Sun Apr 22, 2018 9:32 am

There are busts at every position.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby real bucs fan » Sun Apr 22, 2018 9:39 am

For sure though it does appear that recently that bust rate is much lower for RBs than it is for OGs...

Ultimately this Nelson vs Barkley debate is pointless since the chances we'd have the option of choosing between the two is slim to none.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby GameTime » Sun Apr 22, 2018 10:14 am

real bucs fan wrote:I don't think the Rams, Cowboys, or Jags regret their recent top 10 RBs...

Gurley is a career 4.2 ypc guy. Zeke was 4.1 this past year. Fournette 3.9? I dont think any of those teams regret those picks, but I do wonder how large a role those guys actually play.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby terrytate » Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:17 am

Bootz2004 wrote:
terrytate wrote:The thing you guys are overlooking is that we don't get to decide which of the big prospects is there for us. Blanket statements like Barkley vs some unnamed defender or Barkley vs an elite blocker are meaningless without names. I would take Chubb or Nelson over Barkley. But, if those guys are gone and Barkley is there, I take Barkley over everyone else with the possible exception of James.

As I keep saying, look at how Kamara transformed the Saints offense. They were blowing people offensively and Brees threw for less yardage than any season since 2005. He was, however, much more effecient. His sacks taken and picks thrown were way down, while his QB rating and accuracy were way up. That's the effect of a good ground game and a back who excels at receiving and YAC.

We don't necessarily have to draft Barkley to achieve that, it can be done with improved blocking and a later round back. The thing is that Barkley IS a better prospect than the rest of the RB's, even better by a substantial margin than Kamara. After Chubb, Nelson and perhaps James, no one else is in the same ballpark with Barkley a draft prospect. We have a glaring need at RB too, moreso than safety IMO. Now, keep in mind that Barkley is one of the best receiving backs to come out in some time. He isn't just a runner, he is a passing weapon for Jameis. Imagine someone blitzes us and Jameis gets the ball out to Barkley, who is out there with a head of steam, Evans blocking and nothing but DB's ahead of him.


Kamara as an example reinforces what most are saying. That you don’t need to shell out a top 10 pick for a back. You also have to look at the way he was utilized. He was a change up back for the Saints. Just 120 carries or 7 and a half a game. Would you call 7 carries transforming the ground game? Of course not. Would you advocate using Barkley in such a way if we drafted him? Of course not.

The other key factor missing in the Saints transformation is their defense. Their defense got off the field more and allowed their offense chances to get a lead AND sit on it with the run game. The bulk of those carries went to Ingram. Brees didn’t have to throw as much because late in games the Saints were winning. That’s thanks to their defense.



True, but you aren't likely to see a team draft both the offensive and defensive rookies of the year again. The Saints hit a home run in that draft.

Your point about Kamara actually reinforces my point IMO. Kamara had a game changing impact for the Saints with limited rushing attempts. In theory, Barkley can do what Kamara does while being a better rusher than Ingram. If he turns out to be the guy he looks like, he would replicate the entire Saints backfield by himself.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby real bucs fan » Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:59 am

It's also funny how Kamara is now an example when last year these same posters **** all over the guy.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby real bucs fan » Sun Apr 22, 2018 12:00 pm

GameTime wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:I don't think the Rams, Cowboys, or Jags regret their recent top 10 RBs...

Gurley is a career 4.2 ypc guy. Zeke was 4.1 this past year. Fournette 3.9? I dont think any of those teams regret those picks, but I do wonder how large a role those guys actually play.

This is when you should watch the games more than the stat sheet.
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