Draft Watch: Running Backs

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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby DreadNaught » Thu Apr 05, 2018 8:57 am

Cheb wrote:I highly doubt Chubb lasts to the late second, much less early fourth.


I agree the fourth is wishful thinking for Chubb. But I could see him in the late 2nd-3rd round range for sure.

I made a post on the last page of this thread comparing where last years RBs where drafted to this years class for some context. Last year was considered a deep RB just like this one. There were two 1st rounders and two 2nd rounders.

I think Chubb is most peoples 4th-6th best RB in this class, so unless there is more of an earlier run on RBs this year I think late 2nd-early 3rd is when he comes off the board.

Lots of good CBs and RBs on day 2 it looks like this year.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby DreadNaught » Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:07 am

MJW wrote:
Naismith wrote:
Barkley will likely find the best fit to use him often in space but, based on my default view of what’s most frequently required of productive NFL running back, Chubb is just a little bit better.[/i]


I agree 100%.

You're going to win rushing titles, you need to take lanes between the tackles and initiate contact. Guice is that guy. Chubb is that guy. Michel isn't exactly that guy, but he'll hit home runs that start with disciplined gap running.


If you don't think Sony Michel can't run between the tackles you haven't watch him play very much. His pad level is ideal and since when did being elusive become a bad thing?

Michel will get you the dirty/tough yards, but he also possess the ability to make people miss in space with how he can juke at full speed. He and Guice are very close to me and both above a RB like Chubb.

I think Michel is ideal for the Bucs offense/Dirk. Plus we already have a good compliment to Michel in Peyton Barber already on the roster. Both guys run w/ great pad level and get upfield. Michel obviously has more elusiveness, but may not be a workhorse/bell-cow type of RB. But that is ok, Michel w/ 15-20 carries and 5 receptions per game and Barber w/ another 10-15 carries depending on the game situation.

Guice is that type if 3-down 20-25 carry type of RB. But unless the Bucs trade down to the mid-first round Guice won't be there. Michel may not be there either at 38 either unfortunately.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby mdb1958 » Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:05 am

62 of the top 100 prospects in this draft will get overlooked because we need to pick a running back in the 2nd round.

Minus any RB's in that group.

Does that clear things up any?
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby beardmcdoug » Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:17 am

mdb1958 wrote:62 of the top 100 prospects in this draft will get overlooked because we need to pick a running back in the 2nd round.

Minus any RB's in that group.

Does that clear things up any?


to be honest, I was happily going about my day, reading things, working - and now having read that, I am confused. and I don't even know what about
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby terrytate » Thu Apr 05, 2018 12:42 pm

Cheb wrote:
terrytate wrote:There are good reason to be afraid of drafting a back with that kind of knee injury, but Chubb's is no worse than Willis McGahee's knee and he had a good career. As to Chubb, it normally takes 18 months to come back fully from that kind of knee injury. It's feasible that whoever drafts him is going to get a guy a lot closer to pre-injury Chubb than post-injury Chubb. I was originally hoping to get Chubb in the third. If we don't Barkley at 7, I think we'all get better value in the 4th than in the second. Chubb might still be there, there are a few other guys like Ballage who would be good picks on day 3.


I highly doubt Chubb lasts to the late second, much less early fourth.



You may well be right. Aside from Barkley going high and Guice being the 2nd back off the board, I am not confident in any prediction as to when or where any given back or backs might go. Chubb could be anywhere from the 3rd or 7th back off the board depending on whether certain GMs fear his knee injury. Some might want a slasher back like Ronald Jones. There are so many RBs with a similar grade that it's hard for me to predict how team exec's see them

The upside to this is that even if Chubb goes high in the second, there will still be good backs to be had on day 3, especially if we end up with Nelson to make them look good
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby Super K » Thu Apr 05, 2018 12:49 pm

I'd prefer Ronald Jones over Chubb...

Injury aside, you know who Chubb reminds me of? Good ol Doug Martin...in running style and in build..Chubb is just a bit bigger and has a longer stride..
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby real bucs fan » Thu Apr 05, 2018 1:07 pm

Super K wrote:I'd prefer Ronald Jones over Chubb...

Injury aside, you know who Chubb reminds me of? Good ol Doug Martin...in running style and in build..Chubb is just a bit bigger and has a longer stride..

Chubb is much more natural runner. Doug couldn't improvise to save his life.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby beardmcdoug » Thu Apr 05, 2018 1:12 pm

terrytate wrote:
Cheb wrote:
I highly doubt Chubb lasts to the late second, much less early fourth.



You may well be right. Aside from Barkley going high and Guice being the 2nd back off the board, I am not confident in any prediction as to when or where any given back or backs might go. Chubb could be anywhere from the 3rd or 7th back off the board depending on whether certain GMs fear his knee injury. Some might want a slasher back like Ronald Jones. There are so many RBs with a similar grade that it's hard for me to predict how team exec's see them

The upside to this is that even if Chubb goes high in the second, there will still be good backs to be had on day 3, especially if we end up with Nelson to make them look good


I love Guice's running style. For some reason I've got a bad feeling about his longevity in the NFL though
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby Naismith » Thu Apr 05, 2018 1:13 pm

I don't think Guice is definitely the second RB off the board. Different teams are going to value different skillsets differently.

I don't think being compared to Doug Martin, from a skill perspective, is a negative.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby DreadNaught » Thu Apr 05, 2018 1:20 pm

beardmcdoug wrote:
terrytate wrote:

You may well be right. Aside from Barkley going high and Guice being the 2nd back off the board, I am not confident in any prediction as to when or where any given back or backs might go. Chubb could be anywhere from the 3rd or 7th back off the board depending on whether certain GMs fear his knee injury. Some might want a slasher back like Ronald Jones. There are so many RBs with a similar grade that it's hard for me to predict how team exec's see them

The upside to this is that even if Chubb goes high in the second, there will still be good backs to be had on day 3, especially if we end up with Nelson to make them look good


I love Guice's running style. For some reason I've got a bad feeling about his longevity in the NFL though


That is the thing about RBs though. Their shelf life when it comes to production makes them 1-contract players in most cases. Ideally you get one in late first so you have that 5th year option. But either way if they turn out to be a stud RB like Leveon Bell you can tag them and pay a premium for only two additional years while they are in their prime and keeping them for either 6 or 7 years total (depending if they were a 1st rounder) and by then they are approaching 30yrs old and it's wise to let some other team pay for that big second contract.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby real bucs fan » Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:24 pm

Considering his age and running style, I think Barkley is gonna last and have a great second contract.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby Doctor » Thu Apr 05, 2018 3:11 pm

beardmcdoug wrote:
terrytate wrote:

You may well be right. Aside from Barkley going high and Guice being the 2nd back off the board, I am not confident in any prediction as to when or where any given back or backs might go. Chubb could be anywhere from the 3rd or 7th back off the board depending on whether certain GMs fear his knee injury. Some might want a slasher back like Ronald Jones. There are so many RBs with a similar grade that it's hard for me to predict how team exec's see them

The upside to this is that even if Chubb goes high in the second, there will still be good backs to be had on day 3, especially if we end up with Nelson to make them look good


I love Guice's running style. For some reason I've got a bad feeling about his longevity in the NFL though

"Don't waste your time on 2017 film because he wasn't even back up to his top speed until the bowl game. He will be the same player he was in 2016. If you had a grade on him after last year, you should use that." -- LSU assistant coach.

I agree. Though it does look like he just runs hard, like any cut could be an injury because how hard he runs. Just feels like that.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby Doctor » Thu Apr 05, 2018 3:28 pm



I just don't know how anyone can watch these highlights and not see that Barkley is a generational elite talent, not just any RB you can get in the second. I know, I know, they are highlights, but just look how nasty they are, he's a man amongst boys. And there are so, many, highlights. Again and again.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby LavonteDavid54 » Thu Apr 05, 2018 5:15 pm

I definitely think we need rb in this draft just not in the first two rounds.Sorry , you take any of the guys after Barkely and if they run behind the same run blocking Barber did? Won't help this team nearly as much as bolstering the pass defense.We've helped some with OL already just hope we continue to build on that.Turns Barber into 1200 guy IMO and protects our franchise QB,who got banged up pretty good last year.That said, who's the rb steal on day 3?
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby DreadNaught » Thu Apr 05, 2018 6:30 pm

Doctor wrote:

I just don't know how anyone can watch these highlights and not see that Barkley is a generational elite talent, not just any RB you can get in the second. I know, I know, they are highlights, but just look how nasty they are, he's a man amongst boys. And there are so, many, highlights. Again and again.


I reported RBF for bi-posting on Docs account.

Too much Barkley love will get you banned as well.

FYI, don't talk about caravans either..
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby mdb1958 » Thu Apr 05, 2018 8:26 pm

Why is hoodie interested in my running back Chase Edmonds
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby uscbucsfan » Thu Apr 05, 2018 8:41 pm

Doctor wrote:

I just don't know how anyone can watch these highlights and not see that Barkley is a generational elite talent, not just any RB you can get in the second. I know, I know, they are highlights, but just look how nasty they are, he's a man amongst boys. And there are so, many, highlights. Again and again.

While I think Barkley is good, he's not near the level of Gurley or even Fournette as a runner. His highlight reel is more impressive than both, but his game tape leaves a lot to be desired. He struggled running between the tackles, bounced away from perfectly good holes, struggled breaking tackles when he couldn't juke or jump over people. It's the reason he was shut down so frequently despite a very good surrounding cast at PSU. Most of his production came in open space with a mack truck size holes. He won't get that in the NFL, especially here. I pointed it out throughout the season.

I've always maintained that Barkley is very good as a prospect, he's just not on that Gurley, ADP, Fournette level...especially as a pure runner. Doesn't mean I don't think he's a really good talent and he could have a HOF career, but he's not the back that will constantly get tough yards. He's more of a Reggie Bush than ADP.

I said in another thread his ceiling is Marshall Faulk, which is worth the number 7 pick, but could end up more of an expensive slasher/pass catcher like McCaffrey was last year.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby uscbucsfan » Thu Apr 05, 2018 8:56 pm

Jomes ran a 4.48 in Cleveland on what he called 85% healed hammy.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby real bucs fan » Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:22 pm

uscbucsfan wrote:Jomes ran a 4.48 in Cleveland on what he called 85% healed hammy.

I think you can pencil him in as a mid 4.4s type of guy at the very least.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby MJW » Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:26 am

DreadNaught wrote:
MJW wrote:
I agree 100%.

You're going to win rushing titles, you need to take lanes between the tackles and initiate contact. Guice is that guy. Chubb is that guy. Michel isn't exactly that guy, but he'll hit home runs that start with disciplined gap running.


If you don't think Sony Michel can't run between the tackles you haven't watch him play very much. His pad level is ideal and since when did being elusive become a bad thing?

Michel will get you the dirty/tough yards, but he also possess the ability to make people miss in space with how he can juke at full speed. He and Guice are very close to me and both above a RB like Chubb.

I think Michel is ideal for the Bucs offense/Dirk. Plus we already have a good compliment to Michel in Peyton Barber already on the roster. Both guys run w/ great pad level and get upfield. Michel obviously has more elusiveness, but may not be a workhorse/bell-cow type of RB. But that is ok, Michel w/ 15-20 carries and 5 receptions per game and Barber w/ another 10-15 carries depending on the game situation.

Guice is that type if 3-down 20-25 carry type of RB. But unless the Bucs trade down to the mid-first round Guice won't be there. Michel may not be there either at 38 either unfortunately.


I do think Michel can run between the tackles. I just don't think he's a grinder. He's a glider I think he's a 12-15 touch guy. I love the idea of what he and Barber could do working together.

Guice is basically a perfect RB prospect. I wish he was a tad bigger. IMHO injuries are the only thing that could stop him. I think he's going to win multiple rushing titles.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby Super K » Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:29 am

Here's my issue with Guice; dude is gonna be a fixture on the training table and IR...

He is a helluva RB, LOVE his physicality, BUT he gives up his hips and knees way, WAY too much...

I've watched a ton of his tape and when approaching contact, instead of lower his pads to slide off of said contact or absorb the blow, he gives up his side to the defender...his hips take a damn beating...

To get a visual or feel for what I'm saying, think about knocking down a door... put your shoulder into right?...Guice hits the door with his hips/ass/side...

That isn't gonna work (for long) in the NFL...
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby MJW » Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:52 am

Super K wrote:Here's my issue with Guice; dude is gonna be a fixture on the training table and IR...

He is a helluva RB, LOVE his physicality, BUT he gives up his hips and knees way, WAY too much...

I've watched a ton of his tape and when approaching contact, instead of lower his pads to slide off of said contact or absorb the blow, he gives up his side to the defender...his hips take a damn beating...

To get a visual or feel for what I'm saying, think about knocking down a door... put your shoulder into right?...Guice hits the door with his hips/ass/side...

That isn't gonna work (for long) in the NFL...


That's a completely reasonable concern.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby Doctor » Sun Apr 08, 2018 5:13 pm

uscbucsfan wrote:
Doctor wrote:

I just don't know how anyone can watch these highlights and not see that Barkley is a generational elite talent, not just any RB you can get in the second. I know, I know, they are highlights, but just look how nasty they are, he's a man amongst boys. And there are so, many, highlights. Again and again.

While I think Barkley is good, he's not near the level of Gurley or even Fournette as a runner. His highlight reel is more impressive than both, but his game tape leaves a lot to be desired. He struggled running between the tackles, bounced away from perfectly good holes, struggled breaking tackles when he couldn't juke or jump over people. It's the reason he was shut down so frequently despite a very good surrounding cast at PSU. Most of his production came in open space with a mack truck size holes. He won't get that in the NFL, especially here. I pointed it out throughout the season.

I've always maintained that Barkley is very good as a prospect, he's just not on that Gurley, ADP, Fournette level...especially as a pure runner. Doesn't mean I don't think he's a really good talent and he could have a HOF career, but he's not the back that will constantly get tough yards. He's more of a Reggie Bush than ADP.

I said in another thread his ceiling is Marshall Faulk, which is worth the number 7 pick, but could end up more of an expensive slasher/pass catcher like McCaffrey was last year.

I get that. And when I try to talk down my buddies I often bring up Reggie Bush. But the truth is that with the exception of this board, everyone is riding high on the Barkley train. Like Bo Jackson comparisons high. While I think Bo levels are a little out there, I definitely think he's better than Gurley, AP, and Fournette coming out right now. His play history, injury history, pass protection, and pass catching are all far superior.

And people worry about this line, this line was pretty damn good when anyone not named Martin ran the ball. I mean to give a no name like Barber 4ypc, you are doing something right. We were a middle of the pack rushing team with half the line on IR, a bunch of out of place players, and no RBs that wouldn't be on the roster bubble anywhere else. That's pretty damn good.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby uscbucsfan » Sun Apr 08, 2018 5:24 pm

Doctor wrote:
uscbucsfan wrote:While I think Barkley is good, he's not near the level of Gurley or even Fournette as a runner. His highlight reel is more impressive than both, but his game tape leaves a lot to be desired. He struggled running between the tackles, bounced away from perfectly good holes, struggled breaking tackles when he couldn't juke or jump over people. It's the reason he was shut down so frequently despite a very good surrounding cast at PSU. Most of his production came in open space with a mack truck size holes. He won't get that in the NFL, especially here. I pointed it out throughout the season.

I've always maintained that Barkley is very good as a prospect, he's just not on that Gurley, ADP, Fournette level...especially as a pure runner. Doesn't mean I don't think he's a really good talent and he could have a HOF career, but he's not the back that will constantly get tough yards. He's more of a Reggie Bush than ADP.

I said in another thread his ceiling is Marshall Faulk, which is worth the number 7 pick, but could end up more of an expensive slasher/pass catcher like McCaffrey was last year.

I get that. And when I try to talk down my buddies I often bring up Reggie Bush. But the truth is that with the exception of this board, everyone is riding high on the Barkley train. Like Bo Jackson comparisons high. While I think Bo levels are a little out there, I definitely think he's better than Gurley, AP, and Fournette coming out right now. His play history, injury history, pass protection, and pass catching are all far superior.

And people worry about this line, this line was pretty damn good when anyone not named Martin ran the ball. I mean to give a no name like Barber 4ypc, you are doing something right. We were a middle of the pack rushing team with half the line on IR, a bunch of out of place players, and no RBs that wouldn't be on the roster bubble anywhere else. That's pretty damn good.


Define "play history", because Gurley and ADP were far superior rushers in college. Barkley was shut down numerous times despite a good Oline and passing game around him and it was largely due to his running style. Gurley was absolutely unstoppable when he was on the field. Barkley was held under 100 rushing yards 8 times last season. Under 50 yards 3 times LAST season. Gurley's final season he had 1 game under 100 yards (77 yards on 6 carries) where he came out due to injury. Every other game he was over 130 rushing yards. ADP basically had the same final year (cut short with injuries) as Gurley.

I think Barkley is a really good prospect, as I've said in the past, but he's not a better prospect than Gurley unless you were completely down on him due to the injury. He's not on ADP's level, he's not on McFadden's level as a prospect, and depending on what a team was looking for Fournette could have easily been drafted over him as he is a better power running/bell cow type prospect. I think Barkley is going to need a complimentary back who can get those difficult short yardage, which isn't the worst thing ever, but guys like Gurley, ADP, or Zeke (jury is still out on Fournette) do not.

edit: Even a lot of the talking heads that are in love with him are comparing to Faulk or what they are calling a larger Reggie Bush. The biggest praise I've heard is a less productive Barry Sanders, but it was also a knock stating that Barkley will get a ton of negative carries in his career. Many don't believe he's going to be a Bell type do it all RB.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby real bucs fan » Sun Apr 08, 2018 6:22 pm

If Gurley hadn't tore his knee, then I 'd have Barkley just behind Gurley as a prospect, but considering the knee tear, Barkley is the best RB prospect to come around since Peterson. He's basically a souped up Zeke Elliot with top notch character.

To quote one NFL GM:

"You don't screw up the special ones when you are a talent evaluator. This guy is special. Any concerns you file on him just feels like nitpicking to fill out the report."
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby uscbucsfan » Sun Apr 08, 2018 6:37 pm

real bucs fan wrote:If Gurley hadn't tore his knee, then I 'd have Barkley just behind Gurley as a prospect, but considering the knee tear, Barkley is the best RB prospect to come around since Peterson. He's basically a souped up Zeke Elliot with top notch character.

To quote one NFL GM:

"You don't screw up the special ones when you are a talent evaluator. This guy is special. Any concerns you file on him just feels like nitpicking to fill out the report."

Another GM stated he didn't think Barkley was a top 10 pick. Another GM stated Michel in the 2nd was better value than Barkley. Another said Barkley is number 2 RB on his list. Everyone has their opinion on him, most are anonymous and are just as useless as our opinions.

You've admitted that his running between the tackles leaves something to be desired. I'm not and have never said he's not really good, but he does have question marks in his game that could prevent him from being a bell-cow type back. He could still be a really useful weapon, some want a back that can do it all with a top 10 pick. I'd be fine with him if Nelson and Chubb were gone. I'd rather have Ward and Fitz over him, too, but I'd still be happy with him. He'd pair great with Barber.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby Doctor » Sun Apr 08, 2018 7:13 pm

Lol. We draft Barkley, Barber is a ghost.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby uscbucsfan » Sun Apr 08, 2018 7:16 pm

Doctor wrote:Lol. We draft Barkley, Barber is a ghost.


Barkley's tape suggests he needs someone to get tough yards, run between the tackles, etc. He's not going to be a 30-40 carry back...he rarely had over 20 carries in college, unless his game dramatically improves/changes, who ever drafts Barkley, the other RB will get more carries than you would believe.
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby real bucs fan » Sun Apr 08, 2018 7:43 pm

uscbucsfan wrote:
Doctor wrote:Lol. We draft Barkley, Barber is a ghost.


Barkley's tape suggests he needs someone to get tough yards, run between the tackles, etc. He's not going to be a 30-40 carry back...he rarely had over 20 carries in college, unless his game dramatically improves/changes, who ever drafts Barkley, the other RB will get more carries than you would believe.

Even if you believe that, Barber can be that guy. Bottom line is you don't pass on Barkley at 7 when you are as desperate at the position as we are...
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Re: Draft Watch: Running Backs

Postby uscbucsfan » Sun Apr 08, 2018 7:45 pm

real bucs fan wrote:
uscbucsfan wrote:
Barkley's tape suggests he needs someone to get tough yards, run between the tackles, etc. He's not going to be a 30-40 carry back...he rarely had over 20 carries in college, unless his game dramatically improves/changes, who ever drafts Barkley, the other RB will get more carries than you would believe.

Even if you believe that, Barber can be that guy. Bottom line is you don't pass on Barkley at 7 when you are as desperate at the position as we are...

I'd pass on him if what I thought was a better prospect at a position of need was there (Nelson, Chubb, Fitz, or Ward). Other than that, no I wouldn't. Elite talent is elite talent. I'd worry that Koetter could effectively use a player like Barkley.
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