Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:29 pm

Do we have an official height and weight for Arden Key?
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby DreadNaught » Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:33 pm

Mountaineer Buc wrote:Do we have an official height and weight for Arden Key?


Not yet, that group gets rope and choked tomorrow I believe.
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby Bucs N Beers » Wed Feb 28, 2018 4:53 pm

Bucs N Beers wrote:Scott Smith‏Verified account
@ScottSBucs

Jason Licht on UTSA DE Marcus Davenport: Explosive, raw. Licht likes the fact that Davenport is raw because it means there’s a lot of room for him to develop.


Survey of Teams Grade Marcus Davenport as a Late First-Round Pick
Updated Feb. 28, 2018
By Charlie Campbell. Follow Charlie on Twitter @draftcampbell.

Every year in the NFL Draft, there are some small-school prospects who come out of nowhere to end up being highly sought-after players. This year, Marcus Davenport will keep that tradition alive, as the UTSA defensive end has gotten a lot of media acclaim with many mock drafts projecting him to be top-10 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Helping Davenport to rise is the 2018 draft class being weak at defensive end and lacking talent for edge rushers.

At the NFL scouting combine, I caught up with sources from eight different teams to get their projection of Davenport. None of those eight teams had graded him as a top-10 pick. The grades for Davenport ranged from the middle of the first to late in the first round.


A NFC general manager, "We have him around middle of the first."

An AFC general manager, "I see him going late first. Top 10 would surprise me."

An AFC national scout, "We have him late one. Plays too high, has tightness in lower to be elite."

An NFC national scout, "I don't see him going that high. Late one."

An AFC director of college scouting, "We graded him late first/early second. Good run defender. His pass rush needs work. He's raw as hell."

A national scout from a AFC playoff team said he didn't have Davenport in his territory but believed he would end up being a mid-to-late first.

A NFC southeast scout, "We have him in the late one to early second range. I don't know where top-10 talk came from. I haven't heard from any guys that saw him that high. Too much of a developmental guy in so many aspects, and he's at a position with a high bust rate. He's strictly an edge guy also. He has questionable sub-package value, which is a killer in today's game. Length is a big asset and he has impressive flashes."

A NFC general manager said something similar but with a stipulation, "I don't think he's top 10 right now. Workouts change a lot of things though."

A few of the team sources said they thought that Davenport could rise higher into the first round as that last NFC general manager stated. The 6-foot-5, 259-pounder is a good athlete with the size, strength and speed that should impress during the pre-draft workouts. However, after surveying a good sample of teams, for Davenport to become a top-10 pick, he is going to need a huge performance at the NFL Scouting Combine and in the workouts to follow.

Read more at http://walterfootball.com/NFLHotPress#h ... fzI4oZZ.99
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby Bucs N Beers » Wed Feb 28, 2018 4:54 pm

See above. Makes me think Licht wants to trade down for Davenport

Buccaneers Open to Trading Down
Updated Feb. 28, 2018
By Charlie Campbell. Follow Charlie on Twitter @draftcampbell.

This is a critical offseason for Tampa Bay Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht and head coach Dirk Koetter. Young franchise quarterback Jameis Winston is entering his fourth year, and this is the fifth offseason that Licht has had to build Tampa Bay into a winner. There were big expectations in 2017, but the Buccaneers had a disappointing season, going 5-11 and being the only team in the NFC South not to make the playoffs. Tampa Bay currently has the longest streak of missing the postseason in the NFC, as they haven't earned a playoff spot since 2007.

On the positive side, the Buccaneers hold the seventh-overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. In a class with five potential first-rounders at quarterback and plenty of teams in the quarterback market, Tampa Bay is in a good position to field offers in a possible trade down. In speaking to sources with the Bucs, trading down is definitely on the table and something they would strongly consider.

The Buccaneers enter the offseason with a number of needs to address. They could use more pass rush, as they were last in the NFL in sacks last year. Adding more secondary talent is also needed to address their vulnerable pass defense. On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay could use more help on their offensive line and will need to add more talent at running back after moving on from Doug Martin. With a number of needs to address, it makes sense for the Buccaneers to move down in the draft and add more picks to help fill holes on their roster. Sources say they are all ears and open to a variety of possibilities, including draft picks or veterans in a move down. By the sounds of it, Tampa Bay is definitely open for business and happy to listen.


Read more at http://walterfootball.com/NFLHotPress#h ... fzI4oZZ.99
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby mdb1958 » Wed Feb 28, 2018 4:55 pm

Mountaineer Buc wrote:Do we have an official height and weight for Arden Key?



I'll make it official at 265.
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby DreadNaught » Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:51 am

Mountaineer Buc wrote:Do we have an official height and weight for Arden Key?


Key - 6'5" 238lbs 33.5" arms (can't play the run at DE at that weight imo)

Davenport - 6'6" 264lbs 33 5/8ths" arms

Landry - 6'2" 252lbs 33" arms

Chubb - 6'4" 270lbs 34" arms
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby DreadNaught » Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:53 am

Arden Key will not be a first round pick imo. Love his upside, but way too much risk imo.
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby DreadNaught » Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:57 am

If the Bucs love Davenport I'd really like to see them move down a few spots and pick up an additional 3rd or 4th in the process.

I like the tape from Davenport, he is certainly a traits type of prospect that plays the game the right way. Just very raw in his pass rush moves (meaning he doesn't have many). Needs coaching, but high upside and can play the run well so he can get on the field early. I'd take Davenport over Key and it's not really a debate to me.
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby Bootz2004 » Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:06 am

DreadNaught wrote:
Mountaineer Buc wrote:Do we have an official height and weight for Arden Key?


Key - 6'5" 238lbs 33.5" arms (can't play the run at DE at that weight imo)


He can damn sure rush the passer at that weight. That's not nearly enough to scare me off.
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby Cheb » Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:37 am

Bootz2004 wrote:
DreadNaught wrote:
Key - 6'5" 238lbs 33.5" arms (can't play the run at DE at that weight imo)


He can damn sure rush the passer at that weight. That's not nearly enough to scare me off.


For a 4-3 team, that would effectively take him off of my board. Arden Key is almost ten pounds lighter than Kendall Beckwith. Would you trust a guy that light to set the edge? I sure wouldn't. He would be giving up 100 pounds against a large number of offensive linemen.

In a 4-3, you would have to protect him, likely by placing him off the line of scrimmage on any down that isn't an obvious passing situation. For our team, that would effectively be benching one of our three starting linebackers in base personnel, which would be weakening one of the strongest units on our team. Arden Key is smaller than Von MIller, smaller than Leonard Floyd, and they didn't have huge medical and character red flags.

Maybe some 3-4 team will take a shot at him. Protect him with good 3-4 defensive ends and hope he turns into Aldon Smith (a guy who had almost 20 pounds on Key, by the way). For me, he's too little to play 4-3.
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby Bootz2004 » Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:50 am

Cheb wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
He can damn sure rush the passer at that weight. That's not nearly enough to scare me off.


For a 4-3 team, that would effectively take him off of my board. Arden Key is almost ten pounds lighter than Kendall Beckwith. Would you trust a guy that light to set the edge? I sure wouldn't. He would be giving up 100 pounds against a large number of offensive linemen.

In a 4-3, you would have to protect him, likely by placing him off the line of scrimmage on any down that isn't an obvious passing situation. For our team, that would effectively be benching one of our three starting linebackers in base personnel, which would be weakening one of the strongest units on our team. Arden Key is smaller than Von MIller, smaller than Leonard Floyd, and they didn't have huge medical and character red flags.

Maybe some 3-4 team will take a shot at him. Protect him with good 3-4 defensive ends and hope he turns into Aldon Smith (a guy who had almost 20 pounds on Key, by the way). For me, he's too little to play 4-3.


You take him off your board if you don't have a clue as to what you're doing. This 4-3 vs 3-4 thing is nearly irrelevant in these days as teams are more so in nickel and dime defenses now. Fronts are very versatile now. His length gives him an advantage off the edge.

238 scares off casual fans. Not NFL teams who know how to utilize personnel with talent. No surprise here.
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby DreadNaught » Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:51 am

Cheb wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
He can damn sure rush the passer at that weight. That's not nearly enough to scare me off.


For a 4-3 team, that would effectively take him off of my board. Arden Key is almost ten pounds lighter than Kendall Beckwith. Would you trust a guy that light to set the edge? I sure wouldn't. He would be giving up 100 pounds against a large number of offensive linemen.

In a 4-3, you would have to protect him, likely by placing him off the line of scrimmage on any down that isn't an obvious passing situation. For our team, that would effectively be benching one of our three starting linebackers in base personnel, which would be weakening one of the strongest units on our team. Arden Key is smaller than Von MIller, smaller than Leonard Floyd, and they didn't have huge medical and character red flags.

Maybe some 3-4 team will take a shot at him. Protect him with good 3-4 defensive ends and hope he turns into Aldon Smith (a guy who had almost 20 pounds on Key, by the way). For me, he's too little to play 4-3.


I'm not scared of Key in round 2. But his best tape is when he is around 240lbs and there is upside as a pass rusher. But right now, he's just a situational pass rusher and liability in the run game, so that is why he's not a 1st rounder to me. There is way too much bad tape of him getting easily blocked by college TE's.
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby Cheb » Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:59 am

Bootz2004 wrote:
Cheb wrote:
For a 4-3 team, that would effectively take him off of my board. Arden Key is almost ten pounds lighter than Kendall Beckwith. Would you trust a guy that light to set the edge? I sure wouldn't. He would be giving up 100 pounds against a large number of offensive linemen.

In a 4-3, you would have to protect him, likely by placing him off the line of scrimmage on any down that isn't an obvious passing situation. For our team, that would effectively be benching one of our three starting linebackers in base personnel, which would be weakening one of the strongest units on our team. Arden Key is smaller than Von MIller, smaller than Leonard Floyd, and they didn't have huge medical and character red flags.

Maybe some 3-4 team will take a shot at him. Protect him with good 3-4 defensive ends and hope he turns into Aldon Smith (a guy who had almost 20 pounds on Key, by the way). For me, he's too little to play 4-3.


You take him off your board if you don't have a clue as to what you're doing. This 4-3 vs 3-4 thing is nearly irrelevant in these days as teams are more so in nickel and dime defenses now. Fronts are very versatile now. His length gives him an advantage off the edge.

238 scares off casual fans. Not NFL teams who know how to utilize personnel with talent. No surprise here.


I said that he would effectively be taken off my board, not entirely taken off of it. Perhaps I should have elaborated on that from the start. Basically, it means that I wouldn't draft him in the first two rounds, because I wouldn't change my defense to make allowances for a super undersized pass rusher with medical and character issues. But while I wouldn't draft him in the first couple of rounds, I wouldn't be surprised if someone else does. Therefore, he's effectively off my board, just like Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen are effectively off my boards. I wouldn't draft them in the first round for this team at this time, but someone else will draft them before I would make the call to draft them, so they are effectively off of my draft board. Does that makes sense?

Arden Key is only 5 pounds heavier than Lavonte David. Take into account that Key is five inches taller, and Key is considerably skinnier than LVD. Would you put LVD full-time as a 4-3 defensive end?
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby Bootz2004 » Fri Mar 02, 2018 11:10 am

Cheb wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
You take him off your board if you don't have a clue as to what you're doing. This 4-3 vs 3-4 thing is nearly irrelevant in these days as teams are more so in nickel and dime defenses now. Fronts are very versatile now. His length gives him an advantage off the edge.

238 scares off casual fans. Not NFL teams who know how to utilize personnel with talent. No surprise here.


I said that he would effectively be taken off my board, not entirely taken off of it. Perhaps I should have elaborated on that from the start. Basically, it means that I wouldn't draft him in the first two rounds, because I wouldn't change my defense to make allowances for a super undersized pass rusher with medical and character issues. But while I wouldn't draft him in the first couple of rounds, I wouldn't be surprised if someone else does. Therefore, he's effectively off my board, just like Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen are effectively off my boards. I wouldn't draft them in the first round for this team at this time, but someone else will draft them before I would make the call to draft them, so they are effectively off of my draft board. Does that makes sense?

Arden Key is only 5 pounds heavier than Lavonte David. Take into account that Key is five inches taller, and Key is considerably skinnier than LVD. Would you put LVD full-time as a 4-3 defensive end?


You're basing this soley on his weight. That's your opinion. It's an opinion no NFL team would share as his tape and build say otherwise. But as fan I understand why you feel this way.
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby Cheb » Fri Mar 02, 2018 11:18 am

Bootz2004 wrote:
Cheb wrote:
I said that he would effectively be taken off my board, not entirely taken off of it. Perhaps I should have elaborated on that from the start. Basically, it means that I wouldn't draft him in the first two rounds, because I wouldn't change my defense to make allowances for a super undersized pass rusher with medical and character issues. But while I wouldn't draft him in the first couple of rounds, I wouldn't be surprised if someone else does. Therefore, he's effectively off my board, just like Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen are effectively off my boards. I wouldn't draft them in the first round for this team at this time, but someone else will draft them before I would make the call to draft them, so they are effectively off of my draft board. Does that makes sense?

Arden Key is only 5 pounds heavier than Lavonte David. Take into account that Key is five inches taller, and Key is considerably skinnier than LVD. Would you put LVD full-time as a 4-3 defensive end?


You're basing this soley on his weight. That's your opinion. It's an opinion no NFL team would share as his tape and build say otherwise. But as fan I understand why you feel this way.


You refused to answer the question, then claimed an unsourced mindreading of 32 NFL franchises. And you say that I'm a casual fan? Lol. Have fun with that.
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby DreadNaught » Fri Mar 02, 2018 11:20 am

Bootz2004 wrote:
Cheb wrote:
I said that he would effectively be taken off my board, not entirely taken off of it. Perhaps I should have elaborated on that from the start. Basically, it means that I wouldn't draft him in the first two rounds, because I wouldn't change my defense to make allowances for a super undersized pass rusher with medical and character issues. But while I wouldn't draft him in the first couple of rounds, I wouldn't be surprised if someone else does. Therefore, he's effectively off my board, just like Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen are effectively off my boards. I wouldn't draft them in the first round for this team at this time, but someone else will draft them before I would make the call to draft them, so they are effectively off of my draft board. Does that makes sense?

Arden Key is only 5 pounds heavier than Lavonte David. Take into account that Key is five inches taller, and Key is considerably skinnier than LVD. Would you put LVD full-time as a 4-3 defensive end?


You're basing this soley on his weight. That's your opinion. It's an opinion no NFL team would share as his tape and build say otherwise. But as fan I understand why you feel this way.


It's not just his weight, his tape is not good vs the run. He gets blocked way too easy and doesn't shed well vs TEs he should be able to dominate.

I'm with you on his upside as a pass rusher. But that is all he is right now. He's a long way from being a 3-down player having NFL OTs blocking him.

He's still a top 50 prospect and I'm not all that surprised by his weight. It's what he played best at and he'll probably test well.

I just wouldn't consider him at 7 despite the Bucs needs for pass rush, but if he's there at 38th overall I'd be good with taking a chance on him.
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Fri Mar 02, 2018 11:41 am

I don't like 238lbs for a hand in the dirt DE. 3-4 OLB seems like the best place for him.

I mean, you could scheme him here and there, but we're looking for a 3 down lineman with his hand in the dirt.
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby Bootz2004 » Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:00 pm

Cheb wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
You're basing this soley on his weight. That's your opinion. It's an opinion no NFL team would share as his tape and build say otherwise. But as fan I understand why you feel this way.


You refused to answer the question, then claimed an unsourced mindreading of 32 NFL franchises. And you say that I'm a casual fan? Lol. Have fun with that.


I'll entertain your ridiculous point. Lavonte David is a LB, has been a LB. He's 6 feet tall and 230 pounds at best. No chance would I put him at 43 DE because he hasn't played there before, he doesn't have the build, length, strength or experience there.

Key does. But as I stated you're just looking at his weight. Using height/weight proportions without context or quite frankly logic makes your point ridiculous and is something a casual would do. Something else a casual would is believe defenses play only in 1 front all of the time. Especially a 4-3. Nickel corners play more than SAM backers, buddy.
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby DreadNaught » Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:09 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
Cheb wrote:
You refused to answer the question, then claimed an unsourced mindreading of 32 NFL franchises. And you say that I'm a casual fan? Lol. Have fun with that.


I'll entertain your ridiculous point. Lavonte David is a LB, has been a LB. He's 6 feet tall and 230 pounds at best. No chance would I put him at 43 DE because he hasn't played there before, he doesn't have the build, length, strength or experience there.

Key does. But as I stated you're just looking at his weight. Using height/weight proportions without context or quite frankly logic makes your point ridiculous and is something a casual would do. Something else a casual would is believe defenses play only in 1 front all of the time. Especially a 4-3. Nickel corners play more than SAM backers, buddy.


Arden Key is not an off the ball player regardless of whatever defensive front he's in. His value is attacking the LOS and getting after the QB off the edge. As such he'll be facing NFL OT's regardless of front/scheme on most plays.

Based on his size and tape I don't see how any NFL team could put this guy on the field right now unless is a pass rush only situation. The fact is he doesn't show the strength at the POA you need from an EDGE defender, which Key is. I love his athleticism and length if he can pin his ears back and not have any run responsibility. But he isn't a complete player and that hurts his value when considering him in round 1 imho.
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby Bootz2004 » Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:40 pm

DreadNaught wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
I'll entertain your ridiculous point. Lavonte David is a LB, has been a LB. He's 6 feet tall and 230 pounds at best. No chance would I put him at 43 DE because he hasn't played there before, he doesn't have the build, length, strength or experience there.

Key does. But as I stated you're just looking at his weight. Using height/weight proportions without context or quite frankly logic makes your point ridiculous and is something a casual would do. Something else a casual would is believe defenses play only in 1 front all of the time. Especially a 4-3. Nickel corners play more than SAM backers, buddy.


Arden Key is not an off the ball player regardless of whatever defensive front he's in. His value is attacking the LOS and getting after the QB off the edge. As such he'll be facing NFL OT's regardless of front/scheme on most plays.

Based on his size and tape I don't see how any NFL team could put this guy on the field right now unless is a pass rush only situation. The fact is he doesn't show the strength at the POA you need from an EDGE defender, which Key is. I love his athleticism and length if he can pin his ears back and not have any run responsibility. But he isn't a complete player and that hurts his value when considering him in round 1 imho.


This post is much more logical and concise. I'd counter with at 238 and his frame he could put on more functional weight if it were necessary. But we discussed this before I think his weight is arbitrary. He's not built like he's 238 at his height. He has a wide base, broad shoulders and I disagree with you about his strength. If you don't see him as a 3 down lineman, then you must not see any DE as such outside of Chubb. Not even Davenport who played primarily in a 2 point stance at UTSA and will need to be coached at the NFL level.
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby real bucs fan » Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:44 pm

Lorenzo Carter > Arden Key
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby Bootz2004 » Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:51 pm

real bucs fan wrote:Lorenzo Carter > Arden Key


In terms of what exactly? Carter isn't even a DE. Are you saying he's a better LB than Key is a DE?
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby real bucs fan » Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:00 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:Lorenzo Carter > Arden Key


In terms of what exactly? Carter isn't even a DE. Are you saying he's a better LB than Key is a DE?

Both guys will be drafted as edge rushers. Both guys are the same size, Carter is even more of a physical freak- plus he doesn't have the character headaches.
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby Bootz2004 » Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:42 pm

real bucs fan wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
In terms of what exactly? Carter isn't even a DE. Are you saying he's a better LB than Key is a DE?

Both guys will be drafted as edge rushers. Both guys are the same size, Carter is even more of a physical freak- plus he doesn't have the character headaches.


Carter is a LB and will play as such. Just because his size says DE doesn't mean his skills set does. This is a huge reach. If your plan is to teach him a new position then he's a 4th or 5th round pick at best.
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby real bucs fan » Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:44 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:Both guys will be drafted as edge rushers. Both guys are the same size, Carter is even more of a physical freak- plus he doesn't have the character headaches.


Carter is a LB and will play as such. Just because his size says DE doesn't mean his skills set does. This is a huge reach. If your plan is to teach him a new position then he's a 4th or 5th round pick at best.

Carter's most impressive tape is when he rushed the passer. Even led the D-1 in pressures/rush....
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby Bootz2004 » Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:52 pm

real bucs fan wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
Carter is a LB and will play as such. Just because his size says DE doesn't mean his skills set does. This is a huge reach. If your plan is to teach him a new position then he's a 4th or 5th round pick at best.

Carter's most impressive tape is when he rushed the passer. Even led the D-1 in pressures/rush....


On a very small sample size. Want the guy to rush the passer small handful of times per game? Sure. But a team would be doing themselves and him a disservice by moving him to defensive end. He's a LB. Let him do that. And if his best tape is the extremely small sample size of him rushing the passer then my point stands. 4th or 5th round pick at best.
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby real bucs fan » Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:52 pm

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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby Bootz2004 » Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:00 pm

real bucs fan wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDlSjTe0zuE


Correction. His best snaps come when he's completely unblocked. Now I see why he's not projected higher than he is.
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby real bucs fan » Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:02 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDlSjTe0zuE


Correction. His best snaps come when he's completely unblocked. Now I see why he's not projected higher than he is.

He's a day 2 project, what do you want. I'd ask why you're being so difficult, but then I remember who I'm talking to...
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Re: Draft Watch: Defensive Ends

Postby Bootz2004 » Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:05 pm

real bucs fan wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
Correction. His best snaps come when he's completely unblocked. Now I see why he's not projected higher than he is.

He's a day 2 project, what do you want. I'd ask why you're being so difficult, but then I remember who I'm talking to...


He's definitely a project that we can agree. I wouldn't even try to use him as a DE honestly. He has ZERO hand usage, looks very finesse like at the POA. As a LB? Absolutely. As a pass rusher? Not a chance.
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