Okay, Draft Geeks. Let's Review.

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Re: Okay, Draft Geeks. Let's Review.

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Mon May 08, 2017 4:29 pm

Rawleigh Williams, RB Arkansas quit football after getting a stinger in the Hog's Spring scrimmage.

Scratch em if ya got em.
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Re: Okay, Draft Geeks. Let's Review.

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Sun Jun 11, 2017 9:36 pm

Been filling my spreadsheet.

Up to 243 names. Using the Athlon college preview to fill it.

For each conference, I'm taking their first and second team preseason all conference players.

Not a perfect plan. Athlon doesn't identity red shirt players so I'm going to be missing RS Sophomores who are draft eligible.

Still, I am getting 40 or so players per conference thus far. Damned fine place to start.
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Re: Okay, Draft Geeks. Let's Review.

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Sat Jun 17, 2017 3:22 pm

I have a total of 376 players.

I took Athlon'sFirst and Second team preseason All Conference players from the Power 5 confrences and omitted Kickers, Punters, and Underclassmen. Unfortunately, Athlon did not identify Red shirt sophomores for me.

I the added the rest of the smaller conferences First team players and the first team of the FBS.

So My dataset has some holes, but I think it's thorough enough for now. I made my pivot table and have my 376 prospects listed by school below....

Alabama 13
Ohio St. 12
Florida St. 11
LSU 10
USC 10
Wisconsin 10
Washington 9
VT 7
App. St. 6
Clemson 6
Florida 6
Georgia 6
Oklahoma 6
Oklahoma State 6
Penn St. 6
Boise St. 5
Indiana 5
Louisville 5
Michigan 5
Notre Dame 5
Pitt 5
Stanford 5
Texas 5
Arkansas St. 4
Baylor 4
Central Mich. 4
Hawaii 4
K State 4
Middle Tenn. 4
Oregon 4
SMU 4
TCU 4
Tulsa 4
UCLA 4
USF 4
Virginia 4
Washington St. 4
Western Mich. 4
Arizona St. 3
Auburn 3
Colorado 3
Idaho 3
Iowa 3
Iowa State 3
Missouri 3
NC State 3
Nebraska 3
Nevada 3
Old Dominion 3
SD State 3
South Carolina 3
Troy 3
Utah 3
Western Kentucky 3
Wyoming 3
Arkasas 2
Ball St. 2
Bowling Green 2
Colorado St. 2
FAU 2
Houston 2
Jacksonville St. 2
Kansas 2
Kent State 2
Kentucky 2
Louisiana Tech 2
Memphis 2
Miami 2
Michigan St. 2
Minnesota 2
ND state 2
North Carolina 2
Northern Illinois 2
Northwestern 2
Sam Houston St. 2
San Jose St. 2
Southern Miss 2
TAMU 2
Temple 2
Tennessee 2
Texas Tech 2
Toledo 2
UTEP 2
Wake Forest 2
West Virginia 2
Akron 1
Albany 1
Boston College 1
Cal Poly 1
Chrleston So 1
Cincinnatti 1
Colgate 1
Duke 1
Eastern Mich. 1
Fordham 1
Iowa 1
James Madison 1
Marshall 1
Miami OH 1
Mississippi St. 1
New Mexico 1
NMS 1
North Carolina AT 1
North Dakota 1
North Texas 1
Ohio 1
Ohio 1
Oklahoma 1
Ole Miss 1
Oregon State 1
Penn 1
Rice 1
Rutgers 1
San Diego St. 1
South Alabama 1
South Carolina St 1
Stony Brook 1
Texas St. 1
Tulane 1
UCF 1
Uconn 1
UNLV 1
UTSA 1
Vanderbilt 1
Villanova 1
Western Ill. 1


We need a "Insert table" feature here.
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Re: Okay, Draft Geeks. Let's Review.

Postby PrimeMinister » Sun Jun 18, 2017 1:23 am

Damn great start
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Re: Okay, Draft Geeks. Let's Review.

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:00 am

PrimeMinister wrote:Damn great start

Spotted an error though.

Oklahoma is on there twice. 6 at the top and one at the bottom. I need to fix that.
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Re: Okay, Draft Geeks. Let's Review.

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Sun Jul 02, 2017 8:33 am

Breakdown of 375 players by position

C 21
CB 37
DE 38
DT 27
G 21
ILB 27
OLB 16
OT 36
QB 23
RB 37
S 31
TE 17
WR 44


By conference

AAC 22
ACC 49
B10 52
BIG-12 38
CUSA 22
FCS 22
INDY 5
MAC 23
MW 22
PAC-12 46
SEC 55
SUNBELT 19
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Re: Okay, Draft Geeks. Let's Review.

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:51 pm

Finished with a big ass list of 421 players. I think that's plenty.

September to January is 4 months. That's over 100 players per month to at least get an impression on....pretty sure that won't happen so I just need to see as many as possible between the kickoff classic and the National Championship game and see what I end up with. I'll then have from January to draft day to fill in as many gaps as I can and I'll STILL be pretty short. Big upside is that about a quarter of these guys will stay in school for their Senior season.

If I have less than 100 players that I haven't seen come the first pick, I'll consider it a success.

So here's the plan. I watch as many games as I can to get a take on as many players as I can. The nice thing about College Football is that there's anywhere from 4-6 games on at a time on Saturdays. Outside of the service academies, there will be few games that I can skip for lack of prospects. Hell, I have 4 prospects playing when Bowling Green is @ Kent State on Oct. 31st. Unfortunately, I am at the mercy of Cox Cable as far as what games I get to see.

So the plan here is to print off a sheet per game I see with the prospects in each school the morning of and settle in. During the game I scribble some notes on each guy based on what I see and try to codify it into some sort of grade. I came up with a number system.

1- Excellent Player, among the best at his position (Solomon Thomas, Budda Baker, OJ Howard)

2- Very good player, needs some development, but should start very early in NFL career. (Demarcus Walker, Taylor Moton)

3- Average player, will need to add/lose weight and develop skillset to start. Can play in rotation or special teams. (Zach Banner)

4-Below average player, significant development required. Potential to be a JAG at the next level. (Dwayne Smoot)

5- Poor player, significant flaws in his game. Do not want. (Adam Bisnowaty)

0- No data. (Pretty much everyone the Bucs drafted after OJ Howard)

Number system will be a big help in sorting out my positionals....or so I hope.

Pick this apart for me.
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Re: Okay, Draft Geeks. Let's Review.

Postby Super K » Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:17 pm

Walker as a 2?..Alpha was right...Noles Homer...











;)



Seriously though..no issues with the grading system as you have it, but I question the 0..

You really have JEvans and Godwin in there as they were after Howard?
They'd both be 2's I'm and using your scale..
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Re: Okay, Draft Geeks. Let's Review.

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Tue Jul 25, 2017 6:32 pm

Super K wrote:Walker as a 2?..Alpha was right...Noles Homer...











;)



Seriously though..no issues with the grading system as you have it, but I question the 0..

You really have JEvans and Godwin in there as they were after Howard?
They'd both be 2's I'm and using your scale..


The 0 isn't a negative, it just means that I haven't seen the player.

Can't go giving 5 grades to guys I haven't seen. If I did that, I'd be echoing rbf all spring.
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Re: Okay, Draft Geeks. Let's Review.

Postby mdb1958 » Fri Aug 04, 2017 9:05 pm

MB, did you ever talk with Alex Reno? He is the editor of the pride of detroit draft guide. Maybe he can give you some tips.
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Re: Okay, Draft Geeks. Let's Review.

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Fri Aug 04, 2017 11:29 pm

mdb1958 wrote:MB, did you ever talk with Alex Reno? He is the editor of the pride of detroit draft guide. Maybe he can give you some tips.

Never heard of him.
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Re: Okay, Draft Geeks. Let's Review.

Postby mdb1958 » Sat Aug 05, 2017 7:21 am

Mountaineer Buc wrote:
mdb1958 wrote:MB, did you ever talk with Alex Reno? He is the editor of the pride of detroit draft guide. Maybe he can give you some tips.

Never heard of him.


They make this.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0
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Re: Okay, Draft Geeks. Let's Review.

Postby Konatown » Tue Aug 08, 2017 7:45 am

Looking forward to your analysis MB.
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Re: Okay, Draft Geeks. Let's Review.

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Tue Aug 08, 2017 8:32 am

Konatown wrote:Looking forward to your analysis MB.

Don't give me too much credit. Since I'm going to try and get some sort of take on over 400 players, it's impossible for me have an in-depth take on any of them.

Guys that jump off the tape and are obvious top picks will be easy to spot and guys who are just plain awful will be easy to spot. But those guys will be a fraction of the whole thing. It's the 350 or so players in the middle that will be toughest to get a bead on particularly since the majority of them will get graded by me based on about 20 minutes of film from one game or at best while watching a game where he's surrounded by other prospects. Not a perfect system at all.

That's why I'm not going to try and anticipate where a guy will be drafted. What I'm trying to shoot for is when the Bucs draft a guy in the 5th round, I can come in here and say "Joe Schmuckatelli from Whatsamaata U looked to me like a really good player in what little I saw of him when he played against a top program. I scored him a 2 and he could be a steal in this round."

When everyone else dives into the tape for their own analysis, we'll see if my method is worth 2 shits.
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