"The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

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"The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby Doctor » Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:23 pm

It's happened more than a few times that the bucs end up selecting someone no one was really talking about or mocking to us. I think this may be one of those years. With everyone focused on the WR's and Safeties and even (somehow) the OTs in this draft, there is going to be someone that no one mocked to us getting picked. If that's the case, who do you see it being?


My Pick:



The guy is the complete package. Great bull rush but can also use his speed to get around. A hard, relentless worker who would be going a lot higher if not for guys like Garrett and Allan stealing the show in this draft. He can play inside or outside a lot like Ayers or Michael Bennett, you know that guy we let go. May not be the biggest need, but we definitely had more than a few moment where our DL seem to disappear in games. You can also never have too many good linemen.
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby real bucs fan » Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:31 pm

D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas

(shitty made highlight video, but he's a beast)


You want a want a power running game while adding speed to the offence? Foreman is your guy. He has the patience, vision, and balance behind the line of scrimmage is a load to tackle and has breakaway speed.
Last edited by real bucs fan on Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby Naismith » Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:32 pm

Man, tough question. I don't know who will be a surprising pick at 19. I expect we'll see all sorts of defensive linemen mocked to the Bucs over the next few months as well as all of the safeties, WRs and first round linemen. I think the only real surprises will be someone making a significant fall or if they pick a guy earlier than expected.

I'll say the surprises I could see happening would be wasting another first round pick on a CB or drafting Garett Bolles from Utah. Since you asked for a specific name, I'll go with Bolles.
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby Doctor » Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:33 pm

Why is that a waste? Teez Tabor is totally on my board and I'd take him if he's there at 19 over a lot of other guys.
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby Bootz2004 » Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:19 pm

OJ Howard. And not surprising in a good way
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby Naismith » Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:19 pm

The team keeps throwing picks and money at CBs without ever really fixing anything because the problem isn't the players, it's the lack of pass rush. It's why VH3 was one of the worst starting CBs in football this year, because he's a rookie on a team that can't make the other QB uncomfortable.
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby Doctor » Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:22 pm

Naismith wrote:The team keeps throwing picks and money at CBs without ever really fixing anything because the problem isn't the players, it's the lack of pass rush. It's why VH3 was one of the worst starting CBs in football this year, because he's a rookie on a team that can't make the other QB uncomfortable.


While I am totally on board with pass rush over pass coverage, you can't say players weren't a problem in 2015. Come on. NOW we have players. But Banks, Jennings, Jenkins?
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby Super K » Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:46 pm

What,exactly, is a surprise?

I mean other than QB or kicker (Licht you moron) drafting any other position helps us (yes, that includes RB..sit down MJW)...

The only "surprise" I could possibly see is reaching for guy/position...

And the it's not like going DL would be a shocker...same applies to OL, WR, DB etc...

Edit: NM, got one..back in a few...
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby Super K » Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:53 pm

My pick: Reuben Foster ILB Alabama

We've struggled against the power run for far too long and this doesn't sit well with Mike Smith. Likewise, our linebackers don't tackle with authority or ferocity, more grab and rollers than thumper...

Insert Foster...a legit hitting machine whom will give us a presence at the 2nd level we haven't had around here since the Nickerson days..

Buckle your chinstraps Freeman, Stewart and Ingram, your bell is about to be rung...
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby DreadNaught » Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:12 pm

Super K wrote:My pick: Reuben Foster ILB Alabama

We've struggled against the power run for far too long and this doesn't sit well with Mike Smith. Likewise, our linebackers don't tackle with authority or ferocity, more grab and rollers than thumper...

Insert Foster...a legit hitting machine whom will give us a presence at the 2nd level we haven't had around here since the Nickerson days..

Buckle your chinstraps Freeman, Stewart and Ingram, your bell is about to be rung...


It would be a surprise, but we already have 2 young LBs that can play all 3 downs. I love Foster, but we won't spend a 1st rounder on a player that can't play all 3 downs, or that will force LVD or Kwon off the field.

That would be nasty LB corps though... geezus... :D
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby DreadNaught » Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:13 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:OJ Howard. And not surprising in a good way


That would be my surprise also, but I wouldn't mind the pick. I'd just prefer a different position is all.
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby Super K » Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:22 pm

DreadNaught wrote:
Super K wrote:My pick: Reuben Foster ILB Alabama

We've struggled against the power run for far too long and this doesn't sit well with Mike Smith. Likewise, our linebackers don't tackle with authority or ferocity, more grab and rollers than thumper...

Insert Foster...a legit hitting machine whom will give us a presence at the 2nd level we haven't had around here since the Nickerson days..

Buckle your chinstraps Freeman, Stewart and Ingram, your bell is about to be rung...


It would be a surprise, but we already have 2 young LBs that can play all 3 downs. I love Foster, but we won't spend a 1st rounder on a player that can't play all 3 downs, or that will force LVD or Kwon off the field.

That would be nasty LB corps though... geezus... :D


Don't disagree with anything you said...hence the SURPRISE!!!

:)
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby SIBucsFan » Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:30 pm

I like Doctor's pick of Solomon Thomas a lot. He seems like a very good player without a lot of intensity.
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby Bucs N Beers » Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:38 pm

Christian McCaffrey would be a surprise. He's a talented running back, and I'm not opposed to taking a Running Back in the first, but I don't think I could get behind McCaffrey at 19.
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby pewterpirates » Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:07 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:OJ Howard. And not surprising in a good way


Agree. If we take OJ Howard, what would be the point moving forward as a Bucs fan???????????????????

1. TE is probably the least concern on this roster right now with Brate.
2. Howard has been SEVERELY overrated. His entire draft stock right now is based on the Clemson defense forgetting to cover him in last year's title game, and one big play in this year's title game.
3. To me, Howard isn't even a 1st round pick.
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby Naismith » Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:23 pm

I disagree about Howard. He's a great blocker, probably the best in the draft, and will likely put up very athletic numbers at the combine. If he went to a school that featured the TE more as a receiver, I think there would be a lot of excitement about him. I wouldn't be ecstatic about taking him in the first, but he'll help the pass game and the run game. I don't even think he makes it to the Bucs pick, though.
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby Bootz2004 » Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:28 pm

Naismith wrote:I disagree about Howard. He's a great blocker, probably the best in the draft, and will likely put up very athletic numbers at the combine. If he went to a school that featured the TE more as a receiver, I think there would be a lot of excitement about him. I wouldn't be ecstatic about taking him in the first, but he'll help the pass game and the run game. I don't even think he makes it to the Bucs pick, though.


That's a terrible excuse. He's a bad route runner and is incredibly inconsistent. He has a hard time getting open unless there is a bust in coverage. You're telling me that Bama QBs are told to ignore him if he's open?

The highest projection I've seen from him is to the Packers. He'll likely drop if anything. The production part simply can't be ignored.
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby The Outsider » Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:37 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
Naismith wrote:I disagree about Howard. He's a great blocker, probably the best in the draft, and will likely put up very athletic numbers at the combine. If he went to a school that featured the TE more as a receiver, I think there would be a lot of excitement about him. I wouldn't be ecstatic about taking him in the first, but he'll help the pass game and the run game. I don't even think he makes it to the Bucs pick, though.


That's a terrible excuse. He's a bad route runner and is incredibly inconsistent. He has a hard time getting open unless there is a bust in coverage. You're telling me that Bama QBs are told to ignore him if he's open?

The highest projection I've seen from him is to the Packers. He'll likely drop if anything. The production part simply can't be ignored.



You're being obtuse.
Of course Bama QBs aren't told to ignore a wide open TE. However, the offense could be structured in such a way that the TE is rarely the second read much less the first.
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby Naismith » Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:39 pm

He broke his own record for most catches by an Alabama TE during the Saban era with 45 this year. Last year, he set the previous high with 33. So yeah, the Alabama offense is not designed to really feature a TE.
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby Bootz2004 » Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:40 pm

The Outsider wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
That's a terrible excuse. He's a bad route runner and is incredibly inconsistent. He has a hard time getting open unless there is a bust in coverage. You're telling me that Bama QBs are told to ignore him if he's open?

The highest projection I've seen from him is to the Packers. He'll likely drop if anything. The production part simply can't be ignored.



You're being obtuse.
Of course Bama QBs aren't told to ignore a wide open TE. However, the offense could be structured in such a way that the TE is rarely the second read much less the first.


That's fabrication at best. You don't have any proof of such a claim. At all.
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby Bootz2004 » Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:42 pm

Naismith wrote:He broke his own record for most catches by an Alabama TE during the Saban era with 45 this year. Last year, he set the previous high with 33. So yeah, the Alabama offense is not designed to really feature a TE.


Saban doesn't run the offense. Are you saying he's telling his coaches to ignore the TE position?
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby Naismith » Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:45 pm

Whether he runs the offense or not, during his tenure at Alabama, no TE had more receptions than OJ Howard the last two years. The first number was a modest 33, which suggests that they have not emphasized the TE during his entire time at Alabama.
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby Bootz2004 » Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:51 pm

Naismith wrote:Whether he runs the offense or not, during his tenure at Alabama, no TE had more receptions than OJ Howard the last two years. The first number was a modest 33, which suggests that they have not emphasized the TE during his entire time at Alabama.


That's not true at all. This year Howard was their 3rd leading receiver behind Ridley and Stewart with 45. He was also 3rd last year with 38 (not 33). Is what you're suggesting is that 3rd leading receivers aren't emphasized?
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby Brazen331 » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:04 pm

I don't view Solomon Thomas as a surprise because if there is a DL in this draft who could become the best player at the position, better than Garrett or Allen, it is this guy. I don't think he falls out of the top 10 and would probably be the absolute best option for us if he were to fall.

I think a surprise pick would be Tim Williams as he is basically a smaller version of Spence. Would make for a great 3rd down pass rush but you really can't have both these guys on the field in other situations without serious mauling potential. This is what would make the pick surprising for me. But that does not mean I think the pick would be bad. Securing arguably the best pure pass rushers in back-to-back drafts is not something to sneeze at. But look where Floyd was selected last year; Williams might not exit the top 10 either.
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby Naismith » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:05 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
Naismith wrote:Whether he runs the offense or not, during his tenure at Alabama, no TE had more receptions than OJ Howard the last two years. The first number was a modest 33, which suggests that they have not emphasized the TE during his entire time at Alabama.


That's not true at all. This year Howard was their 3rd leading receiver behind Ridley and Stewart with 45. He was also 3rd last year with 38 (not 33). Is what you're suggesting is that 3rd leading receivers aren't emphasized?


Ah, the 33 number must have been before the championship game last year. Regardless, at 33, it was the most ever catches for a TE in the Nick Saban era.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-footbal ... ampionship

"The tight end has never been a particularly huge part of the Alabama passing game. In fact, Howard's 33 receptions in 2015 were the most of any Alabama tight end during the Nick Saban era in Tuscaloosa."

What I'm suggesting has nothing to do with the third leading receiver. What I'm saying, and pretty clearly, is that prior to Howard, the TE wasn't emphasized at all during Saban's tenure as evidenced by 33 catches being the most any TE had during his time as Bama coach. I'm saying that while Howard hasn't put up huge numbers, he has relative to the position's typical production under Nick Saban.
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby Bootz2004 » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:10 pm

Naismith wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
That's not true at all. This year Howard was their 3rd leading receiver behind Ridley and Stewart with 45. He was also 3rd last year with 38 (not 33). Is what you're suggesting is that 3rd leading receivers aren't emphasized?


Ah, the 33 number must have been before the championship game last year. Regardless, at 33, it was the most ever catches for a TE in the Nick Saban era.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-footbal ... ampionship

"The tight end has never been a particularly huge part of the Alabama passing game. In fact, Howard's 33 receptions in 2015 were the most of any Alabama tight end during the Nick Saban era in Tuscaloosa."

What I'm suggesting has nothing to do with the third leading receiver. What I'm saying, and pretty clearly, is that prior to Howard, the TE wasn't emphasized at all during Saban's tenure as evidenced by 33 catches being the most any TE had during his time as Bama coach. I'm saying that while Howard hasn't put up huge numbers, he has relative to the position's typical production under Nick Saban.


Oh this is good to hear from a scout..no wait, a coach..no? Oh he's a blogger. Got it. He has as much credibility making that claim as you do.

And even if TE wasn't an emphasized part of the offense, if Howard was as talented and great as you're suggesting wouldn't they have made sure to make him part of the offense? A guy who is an afterthought on his team is not worth a 1st round pick. Barely worth a day 2 pick honestly. That your team chooses to ignore you doesn't mean you're a great prospect.
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby SIBucsFan » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:11 pm

If you want to see how involved Howard was in the passing game, just look at the numbers and compare them to the other players.

Code: Select all
                                                                         
                                   Rush            Rece               Scri
Rk             Player Att  Yds  Avg  TD Rec Yds  Avg TD Plays  Yds  Avg TD
1       Calvin Ridley   5   21  4.2   1  71 776 10.9  7    76  797 10.5  8
2    Ardarius Stewart   9   97 10.8   1  54 828 15.3  7    63  925 14.7  8
3                           O.J. Howard  45 595 13.2  3    45  595 13.2  3
4                         Gehrig Dieter  15 214 14.3  4    15  214 14.3  4
5       Damien Harris 146 1037  7.1   2  14  99  7.1  2   160 1136  7.1  4
6       Joshua Jacobs  85  567  6.7   4  14 156 11.1  0    99  723  7.3  4
7                              Cam Sims  14 152 10.9  0    14  152 10.9  0
8                          Trevon Diggs  11  88  8.0  1    11   88  8.0  1
9       Robert Foster   1   -5 -5.0   0   5  55 11.0  0     6   50  8.3  0
10                    Miller Forristall   5  73 14.6  0     5   73 14.6  0
11      Bo Scarbrough 125  812  6.5  11   4  22  5.5  0   129  834  6.5 11
12                           Derek Kief   4  31  7.8  0     4   31  7.8  0
13                         Hale Hentges   3  10  3.3  0     3   10  3.3  0
14        B.J. Emmons  35  173  4.9   1   2  20 10.0  0    37  193  5.2  1
15       Derrick Gore  18   93  5.2   1   1   0  0.0  0    19   93  4.9  1
16                       Brandon Greene   1   5  5.0  0     1    5  5.0  0
17                          Mack Wilson   1   1  1.0  1     1    1  1.0  1
18        Jalen Hurts 191  954  5.0                  13   191  954  5.0 13
19      Blake Barnett   7  -17 -2.4                   0     7  -17 -2.4  0
20       Ronnie Clark   4   14  3.5                   0     4   14  3.5  0
21     Cooper Bateman   3  -11 -3.7                   0     3  -11 -3.7  0
22         Avery Reid   2    4  2.0                   0     2    4  2.0  0


Howard finish third in receptions and yards behind their two starting WRs. After Calvin Ridley, Ardarius Stewart, and Howard, there is a huge drop-off to the fourth guy, Gehrig Dieter, who had 15 receptions for 214 yards and 4 TDs. Howard was part of an offense that relied primarily on three players in the passing game, him being one of them.

So Howard was involved in the passing game very significantly in their run-heavy offense (43 rushes to 28 passes per game, not surprising seeing as how they had huge leads throughout much of the season). His receptions accounted for approximately 17 percent of the team's completions.

Before Howard, there was Brad "Real" Smelley, Michael Williams, and Preston Dial, and TE/H-Backs type of players at the next level. None even came close to Howard's talent level, and that is reflected in their best years compared to Howard's 2016 season shows. The best season of those guys was Smelley's, who had 34 receptions for 356 yards and 4 TDs in 2011 on a team that had Marquis Maze as their number one option in the passing game, i.e. they lacked talent at receiver, but that was okay because they had Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy to run the ball.
Last edited by SIBucsFan on Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby Naismith » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:12 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:Oh this is good to hear from a scout..no wait, a coach..no? Oh he's a blogger. Got it. He has as much credibility making that claim as you do.


What does being a blogger have to do with listing a stat? Is is incorrect that no previous TE had more than 33 receptions for Alabama while Saban was there?
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby SIBucsFan » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:15 pm

Naismith wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:Oh this is good to hear from a scout..no wait, a coach..no? Oh he's a blogger. Got it. He has as much credibility making that claim as you do.


What does being a blogger have to do with listing a stat? Is is incorrect that a previous TE had more than 33 receptions for Alabama while Saban was there?


http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/pla ... ley-1.html

Smelley had 34 receptions in 2011.
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Re: "The Bucs surprisingly select ___ "

Postby Bootz2004 » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:18 pm

SIBucsFan wrote:
Naismith wrote:
What does being a blogger have to do with listing a stat? Is is incorrect that a previous TE had more than 33 receptions for Alabama while Saban was there?


http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/pla ... ley-1.html

Smelley had 34 receptions in 2011.


So yea, the blogger was incorrect
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