"Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

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"Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby DreadNaught » Thu May 17, 2018 3:31 pm

Was Jameis Winston according to this pretty interesting article that makes a compelling argument.

Statistically, Jameis Winston had a strong 2017 season. Winston was above-average in completion percentage, yards per attempt, net yards per attempt, passer rating, and Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. Overall, Winston ranked 11th in ANY/A and 14th in passer rating, but that might undersell him. That’s because Winston was also the game’s preeminent downfield thrower in 2017. His average pass traveled 10.62 yards in the air, by far the longest in the NFL (Carson Wentz was second at 9.91, followed by Russell Wilson at 9.75, Carson Palmer at 9.36, and Tom Brady at 9.09). Winston also led the NFL in average air yards on completions, at 7.97 (Wentz was seond at 7.79, followed by Palmer at 7.53.)

Winston was throwing longer passes, which hurt his passer rating and completion percentage, but helped his team. Winston picked up a first down on over 40% of his pass attempts, the highest rate in the NFL last season:

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And Winston was excellent on third downs, which is a pretty key component of producing an efficient offense. In fact, he ranked 2nd among starting quarterbacks:

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So why were the Bucs so bad in 2017? Was it a case of Winston having very good stats but not playing well? I don’t think so. To start, Tampa Bay had the worst defense in the NFL according to DVOA. And the Bucs had very bad special teams, including a disastrous kicking game. Finally, while Tampa Bay ranked 9th in pass DVOA, the Bucs ranked 25th in rush DVOA. The Bucs ranked 30th in rushing yards by running backs (1168) and 29th in rushing yards per carry by running backs (3.53).

So you have a very good passing game combined with the worst defense in the NFL, terrible special teams, and an ineffective running game. In that light, a 3-10 record for Winston makes a lot more sense. NFL teams went 28-5 when their quarterback had a passer rating of at least 130, but Winston went 0-2 in those games.

Winston lost a third game in overtime where he never touched the ball, and two more games to AFC East teams with remarkable sequences of events. Against Buffalo, in a game that was 20-20 late in the fourth quarter, Winston drove the Bucs down the field and converted two third downs, including one for a touchdown, to take a 27-20 lead with 3:14 to go. The Bills responded by driving 75 yards in just three plays for a touchdown to tie the game. Winston took over with 2:28 to go, and his first pass was a completion to Adam Humphries who cut back into the middle of the field and fumbled. Buffalo kicked the game-winning field goal a few plays later.

Against the Patriots, the Bucs passing attack was the best unit on the field. If you look at the EPA from that game, Tampa Bay’s pass offense was +9.96, its rushing offense -1.95, while the Patriots passing offense was +1.94 and its rushing offense -2.32. But Nick Folk missed three field goals, which proved to be the difference in the game.

Winston’s season was similar to Kyle Orton’s 2010 season, which may not sound like a complement. Orton went 3-10 playing for a team that ranked 32nd in both points and yards allowed and had a mediocre running game. In fact, Winston and Orton are the only two quarterbacks since 2000 to (a) start 10+ games and throw 224+ passes, (b) have an ANY/A+ Index of at least 105 (solidly above average), and to lose at least 2.5 times as many games as they won.

If we look at just Yards per Attempt+, Winston had a Y/A+ Index of 118, more than one standard deviation above average. Since 1970, just three QBs have been one standard deviation above average in Y/A+ and also lost three times as many games as they won. All three were number one overall picks who played with horrible defenses.

Winston is 24 (he’ll be 25 in January), so there’s still time for him to improve. But the writing is on the wall for him to have a much better record in 2018. He was probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017.
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby Bootz2004 » Thu May 17, 2018 3:36 pm

None of this surprises me. It was very evident how good he was on the field for the most part. Everyone seems to understand and realize how good he is except fans of this team.
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby Super K » Thu May 17, 2018 3:54 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:None of this surprises me. It was very evident how good he was on the field for the most part. Everyone seems to understand and realize how good he is except CERTAIN fans of this team.


Fixed, but yeah...

And it's ****ing ridiculous...
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby Nano » Thu May 17, 2018 3:58 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:None of this surprises me. It was very evident how good he was on the field for the most part. Everyone seems to understand and realize how good he is except fans of this team.

It's more than just fans of this team. If you go to any of the bigger NFL boards(Like r/NFL, Football futures, NFLB, ect) you're going to see a decent amount of Winston skeptics in any topic that he's brought up in. He's not a popular QB on any of those sites lol
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby Naismith » Thu May 17, 2018 4:07 pm

DreadNaught wrote:Winston’s season was similar to Kyle Orton’s 2010 season, which may not sound like a complement.


The much rarer form of using the wrong compliment/complement!
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby theBKwhopper » Thu May 17, 2018 4:09 pm

Winston is so underappreciated here. All that he fought through personally last year, and then with the team not performing well, I'm proud of how he persevered through it all.
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby Super K » Thu May 17, 2018 4:16 pm

theBKwhopper wrote:Winston is so underappreciated here.


No damn doubt about that...
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby mdb1958 » Thu May 17, 2018 4:19 pm

Quit strumming the harp. More TD's and less TO's in order to do anything in the playoffs. He has a great offense, he needs to master its capabilities.
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby Bootz2004 » Thu May 17, 2018 4:29 pm

We aren't going anywhere with a **** defense.
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby LoRdNlKoN » Thu May 17, 2018 4:31 pm

His deep throws need work but Winston is still only 24. He’s still got time.
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby DreadNaught » Thu May 17, 2018 4:35 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:We aren't going anywhere with a **** defense.


**** defense + **** running game = **** team
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby theBKwhopper » Thu May 17, 2018 4:42 pm

mdb1958 wrote:Quit strumming the harp. More TD's and less TO's in order to do anything in the playoffs. He has a great offense, he needs to master its capabilities.

A star receiver and two good TEs don't make your offense great.. We weren't terrible, but we couldn't run the ball, so we were essentially one dimensional.
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby Bootz2004 » Thu May 17, 2018 4:43 pm

This piece here, I don't think fans and critics truly understand what this means.

Winston was also the game’s preeminent downfield thrower in 2017. His average pass traveled 10.62 yards in the air, by far the longest in the NFL (Carson Wentz was second at 9.91, followed by Russell Wilson at 9.75, Carson Palmer at 9.36, and Tom Brady at 9.09). Winston also led the NFL in average air yards on completions, at 7.97 (Wentz was seond at 7.79, followed by Palmer at 7.53.)


Turnovers are likely going to always be part of his game based simply on the system he's in. Down to down, he has to hold the ball longer and make deeper throws than literally every other QB in the league. That's just the nature of the system. I don't know if people watch our offense work and how things unfold but often times there are no checkdowns. No safety valves. I think racking up 1st downs and keeping the offense on the field makes up for it though. We just need to play better complimentary football and defense.
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby Teitan » Thu May 17, 2018 4:55 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:Down to down, he has to hold the ball longer and make deeper throws than literally every other QB in the league.



With an inferior OL
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby real bucs fan » Thu May 17, 2018 5:27 pm

Assuming Jones and Jensen get this run game going, you are going to see an even better Winston next year.
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby mdb1958 » Thu May 17, 2018 5:36 pm

Once Jackson had caught multiple bomb TD's, the rest of the offense would have been wide open! A few QB's could hit close to forty TD's for us, on that list.
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby mdb1958 » Thu May 17, 2018 5:44 pm

What is BIG?
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby Caradoc » Thu May 17, 2018 6:18 pm

Naismith wrote:
DreadNaught wrote:Winston’s season was similar to Kyle Orton’s 2010 season, which may not sound like a complement.


The much rarer form of using the wrong compliment/complement!



Bootz2004 wrote:This piece here, I don't think fans and critics truly understand what this means.
We just need to play better complimentary football and defense.



Don't worry, Bootz got the compliment/complement wrong form back on track!
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby mdb1958 » Thu May 17, 2018 7:27 pm

BIG
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby Nano » Thu May 17, 2018 8:28 pm

****
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby mdb1958 » Thu May 17, 2018 8:36 pm

Nano wrote:****



You dont know either? Maybe one of your esteemed colleagues knows what big is on that chart.
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby terrytate » Thu May 17, 2018 9:46 pm

Anyone with an ounce of sense know that WInston is part of the solution. My biggest fear was and still is Donovan Smith. He has a tendency to block like a matador much too often, people get quick and clean runs at Winston. That's how he got hurt last year.
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby Doctor » Fri May 18, 2018 8:26 am

Defense was a huge issue but that really should come around with the major changes we've made. Same with having the run game be a real option again. You can win with a bad defense or a bad run game, but not both.
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby DreadNaught » Fri May 18, 2018 8:37 am

mdb1958 wrote:Maybe one of your esteemed colleagues knows what big is on that chart.


It's easy to find if you one simply clicks on the link provided in the OP. I don't think most people care though.

"BIG" = Passes of 25+ yards
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby mdb1958 » Fri May 18, 2018 9:53 am

DreadNaught wrote:
mdb1958 wrote:Maybe one of your esteemed colleagues knows what big is on that chart.


It's easy to find if you one simply clicks on the link provided in the OP. I don't think most people care though.

"BIG" = Passes of 25+ yards


It shows the weakness in the whole article. He dont want to throw it short or take off running and he cant throw it long and by doing so he opens up the chances of int's and fumbles.


That’s because Winston was also the game’s preeminent downfield thrower in 2017
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby DreadNaught » Fri May 18, 2018 11:27 am

mdb1958 wrote:
DreadNaught wrote:
It's easy to find if you one simply clicks on the link provided in the OP. I don't think most people care though.

"BIG" = Passes of 25+ yards

It shows the weakness in the whole article. He dont want to throw it short or take off running and he cant throw it long and by doing so he opens up the chances of int's and fumbles.
That’s because Winston was also the game’s preeminent downfield thrower in 2017


Winston certainly needs to improve the deep ball accuracy, but you're conflating throwing the ball deep w/ being a good downfield thrower. Jameis is one of the better QBs in the NFL at throws that travel 10+ yards in the air which is considered "downfield" in this article. You are just infusing your own bias and definitions to call the article weak.

Also, the 'BIG' stat cited on that chart doesn't mean the ball traveled 25+ yards in the air. It could be a WR screen that went for 25+ yards and it would still count. The Bucs were one of the worst RAC/YAC teams in the NFL and that falls more than just the QB.

I also disagree Winston "dont want to throw it short or take off running" since he repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to do both when necessary. But in Dirk's offense the majority of passing plays and route combos are designed for a downfield passing attack, which makes sense when you have a strong armed QB and targets like Evans, Howard, Brate, Djax.

We're not a west coast offense.
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby mdb1958 » Fri May 18, 2018 12:06 pm

You win! He's the ten yard King.

TD's - 17 better
20 yarders - 22 better
40 yarders - 19 better
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby DreadNaught » Fri May 18, 2018 12:10 pm

mdb1958 wrote:You win!


Noted...
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby mdb1958 » Fri May 18, 2018 12:11 pm

You win! He's the ten yard King.

TD's - 17 better
20 yarders - 22 better
40 yarders - 19 better
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Re: "Probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017"

Postby mdb1958 » Fri May 18, 2018 12:22 pm

DreadNaught wrote:
mdb1958 wrote:You win!


Noted...



You better gather up a few of the guys and go have a "I'm a winner pizza"!
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