Page 5 of 6

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:25 pm
by UbuntuBuc
DanTurksGhost wrote:Come on people, this is obvious stuff here.


If this was all so obvious then every team would have minimum wage jobs for GMs.

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:55 pm
by Buc2
DreadNaught wrote: With Brate here Howard will only be a Y (because Brate can't block well), which is fine b/c Howard is good blocker

Not according to PFF. :D

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:11 pm
by Buc2
After reading all the arguments and scenarios that have been posited in this thread, I've come down on the side that agrees to put a 2nd round tender on Brate. If a team makes an offer, fine. Take their 2nd round pick, wish Brate well and draft another TE in one of the late rounds or pick up another UDFA or two. If no team makes an offer, then we have him for 2018 at a 2nd round cost with no major cap hit and no dead money at the end of 2018. Like most here, I really like Brate. He plays hard, he's a model citizen and he has excelled at the skills he brought to the table. But, at the end of the day, Howard is the #1 TE and there is zero reason to pay a #2 TE #1 money. If Howard hadn't fallen into our laps last year, then, yeah...by all means, you make Brate a big offer this offseason so he doesn't hit the market after 2018. But it didn't happen that way. It's nothing against Brate. He did nothing wrong and has nothing to be ashamed of. He's gonna get paid. It just won't be by the Bucs.

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:19 pm
by Cheb
On the subject of Brate, Howard, and tight end usage in our offense, I've done a little research.

Remember when we were expecting a season of heavier use of 12 personnel (1 running back, 2 tight ends, 2 receivers), based on the OJ Howard pick? Lots of articles written, lots of nonsense said, lots of hype in general. Last year, before Howard, we ran with 12 personnel 31% of the time. That percentage should have gone up, right? Apparently wrong. This year, we ran 12 personnel 23% of the time.

You could argue that we were either behind on the scoreboard, or behind in down and distance, so we had to abandon it, but the stats just don't bear that out. When you control for those things, either by quarter or by down-and-distance or by how behind or ahead we are, it doesn't matter. Apparently, all our talk of outfoxing the opposition with crafty 12 personnel usage was hogwash.

If you want to dive into it and have time to spare or waste, I highly recommend https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html.

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:26 pm
by beardmcdoug
Cheb wrote:On the subject of Brate, Howard, and tight end usage in our offense, I've done a little research.

Remember when we were expecting a season of heavier use of 12 personnel (1 running back, 2 tight ends, 2 receivers), based on the OJ Howard pick? Lots of articles written, lots of nonsense said, lots of hype in general. Last year, before Howard, we ran with 12 personnel 31% of the time. That percentage should have gone up, right? Apparently wrong. This year, we ran 12 personnel 23% of the time.

You could argue that we were either behind on the scoreboard, or behind in down and distance, so we had to abandon it, but the stats just don't bear that out. When you control for those things, either by quarter or by down-and-distance or by how behind or ahead we are, it doesn't matter. Apparently, all our talk of outfoxing the opposition with crafty 12 personnel usage was hogwash.

If you want to dive into it and have time to spare or waste, I highly recommend https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html.


I just don't know what to think anymore...


thanks for the research bud

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:34 pm
by real bucs fan
I think the problem was we were an offence that was built to run the ball but couldn't...

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:40 pm
by beardmcdoug
real bucs fan wrote:I think the problem was we were an offence that was built to run the ball but couldn't...


...because our o-line sucked at run blocking

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:54 pm
by Sammich
Deuce wrote:
Super K wrote:We complain about our franchise not developing anyone, yet we are good with losing Brate...our homegrown, UDFA out of freakin HARVARD who has done DAMN well...

We complain about jettisoning talent (Michael Bennett, Donald Penn etc) for no real reason...yet we act like letting Brate walk is just how it goes..

We complain about lack of depth and yet are cool rolling with OJ and Auclair as our TEs in a TE heavy system with a QB who, obviously, loves his TEs (no joke)...


Fun times...


Right? I wanna bet someone about Brate being here in 2019.

Letting Brate walk significantly devalues the Howard pick, imo. If that was the plan, we could've kept Brate and Auclair and used our first round pick on something else.



I agree with you and said the same thing earlier in the thread. Howard is/was a great prospect, but if the plan was to let Brate walk thn Howard was a poor choice for us. Brate plus a first round lineman makes us a better team overall than Howard alone. The pick only makes sense if the intention was to keep and use both.

A first round pick is the most valuable resource each team is given. Using it for a (potentially) slight upgrade at a position you're already strong at is stupid when there are glaring holes at other positions. I said as much when we drafted him.

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:14 pm
by DreadNaught
Sammich wrote:
Deuce wrote:
Right? I wanna bet someone about Brate being here in 2019.

Letting Brate walk significantly devalues the Howard pick, imo. If that was the plan, we could've kept Brate and Auclair and used our first round pick on something else.



I agree with you and said the same thing earlier in the thread. Howard is/was a great prospect, but if the plan was to let Brate walk thn Howard was a poor choice for us. Brate plus a first round lineman makes us a better team overall than Howard alone. The pick only makes sense if the intention was to keep and use both.

A first round pick is the most valuable resource each team is given. Using it for a (potentially) slight upgrade at a position you're already strong at is stupid when there are glaring holes at other positions. I said as much when we drafted him.


Except Brate is not a strong TE1. Since he's been in the league he's done his best work as the #2 TE. Brate is an above average receiving TE and a great red-zone target. But if he's your TE1 it's going to have a negative effect on the run game. We saw this in 2016.

Buc2 simplified it well, "there is zero reason to pay a #2 TE #1 money", and as Cheb pointed out, it's not like we're deploying a heavier usage of two-TE sets.

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:38 pm
by Deuce
DreadNaught wrote:
Sammich wrote:

I agree with you and said the same thing earlier in the thread. Howard is/was a great prospect, but if the plan was to let Brate walk thn Howard was a poor choice for us. Brate plus a first round lineman makes us a better team overall than Howard alone. The pick only makes sense if the intention was to keep and use both.

A first round pick is the most valuable resource each team is given. Using it for a (potentially) slight upgrade at a position you're already strong at is stupid when there are glaring holes at other positions. I said as much when we drafted him.


Except Brate is not a strong TE1. Since he's been in the league he's done his best work as the #2 TE. Brate is an above average receiving TE and a great red-zone target. But if he's your TE1 it's going to have a negative effect on the run game. We saw this in 2016.

Buc2 simplified it well, "there is zero reason to pay a #2 TE #1 money", and as Cheb pointed out, it's not like we're deploying a heavier usage of two-TE sets.


First, thanks Sammich. I knew I had seen the argument somewhere and it's a great point.

So Brate isn't a strong TE1, but we won't be able to keep him because someone will pay him as a TE1? Which is it? And what do you mean "we saw this in 2016". In 2016, our ypc was 3.6, and in 2017, it was 3.7.

And the thing Cheb posted is great but looking game by game, Howard was on the field 65-70% of the time and Brate was on the field 50-60% of the time.

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:00 pm
by mdb1958
Super Tim Wright anyone?

Did you know every 7 passes he caught a touchdown.

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:04 pm
by mdb1958
Someone will use him kinda like we do -------------------- only better. When we do stupid things we always have to feel the knife.

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:30 pm
by Super K
DreadNaught wrote:
Sammich wrote:

I agree with you and said the same thing earlier in the thread. Howard is/was a great prospect, but if the plan was to let Brate walk thn Howard was a poor choice for us. Brate plus a first round lineman makes us a better team overall than Howard alone. The pick only makes sense if the intention was to keep and use both.

A first round pick is the most valuable resource each team is given. Using it for a (potentially) slight upgrade at a position you're already strong at is stupid when there are glaring holes at other positions. I said as much when we drafted him.



Buc2 simplified it well, "there is zero reason to pay a #2 TE #1 money", and as Cheb pointed out, it's not like we're deploying a heavier usage of two-TE sets.


Ill counter that and say you can if the contract is written correctly and when your TE#1 is on his rookie deal...

When TE#1 is off his rookie deal and needs to get paid, THAT'S when you need to make a tough decision...not now...

And everyone keeps looking for this money like it's a needle in a haystack...I'll point you right to it..Doug Martin..cut his ass...pay/offer Brate..call it a day..

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:52 pm
by Sammich
I'm not really concerned with debating if we can afford Brate because we easily can. My concern is the opportunity cost of just letting him walk. Look at all the players taken after our first but before our second and pick your favorite. Dalvin Cook, Ryan Ramzcyk, Forrest Lamp, TraDavious White, Takk McKinnley-whoever.

Can you honestly say that Howard alone makes us a better team than Brate and whoever you picked? Not a chance.

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:05 pm
by mdb1958
Wouldnt you know it, Brate also scores a touchdown every seven passes.

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:10 pm
by Brazen331
Brate is just about my favorite player on the team but I fail to see how giving him 7 million a year would make better sense for this team than giving that money to a DE or CB. You are paying for a decent red-zone connection with Winston that he could probably develop with another average TE. Brate could easily bust hard and be exposed on another team as he has no outstanding physical skills.

His best bet would be to take less money to stay here. He has sort of found a niche where he can thrive here that might not exist elsewhere. He is a JAG who found a way to carve out some success here and he could be a JAG and look like the UFA everyone considered him to be away from Tampa.

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:25 pm
by mdb1958
Brazen331 wrote:Brate is just about my favorite player on the team but I fail to see how giving him 7 million a year would make better sense for this team than giving that money to a DE or CB. You are paying for a decent red-zone connection with Winston that he could probably develop with another average TE. Brate could easily bust hard and be exposed on another team as he has no outstanding physical skills.

His best bet would be to take less money to stay here. He has sort of found a niche where he can thrive here that might not exist elsewhere. He is a JAG who found a way to carve out some success here and he could be a JAG and look like the UFA everyone considered him to be away from Tampa.


Name the DE that is going to get let go and shine for us.

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:35 pm
by DanTurksGhost
Buc2 wrote:After reading all the arguments and scenarios that have been posited in this thread, I've come down on the side that agrees to put a 2nd round tender on Brate. If a team makes an offer, fine. Take their 2nd round pick, wish Brate well and draft another TE in one of the late rounds or pick up another UDFA or two. If no team makes an offer, then we have him for 2018 at a 2nd round cost with no major cap hit and no dead money at the end of 2018. Like most here, I really like Brate. He plays hard, he's a model citizen and he has excelled at the skills he brought to the table. But, at the end of the day, Howard is the #1 TE and there is zero reason to pay a #2 TE #1 money. If Howard hadn't fallen into our laps last year, then, yeah...by all means, you make Brate a big offer this offseason so he doesn't hit the market after 2018. But it didn't happen that way. It's nothing against Brate. He did nothing wrong and has nothing to be ashamed of. He's gonna get paid. It just won't be by the Bucs.


Exactly. I see this as being the most likely scenario with Brate. Second round tender, one year contract. If they can work out something longer-term with him and he's happy with a probable reduced role, then that would be terrific -- but I'm not holding my breath. I have no doubt some other team is going to covet him to the degree that they will end up going elsewhere for bigger money and a potential bigger role than we intend for him to have at this point.

Brate: "So do you see me being the featured, go-to TE in your offense?"

Bucs: "Well, we drafted OJ Howard in the middle of the first round. HIs upside is huge."

Some Other Team: "Hell yes! The Bucs were crazy not to use you more. And why would they draft OJ Howard when they had a TE of your caliber on the roster?"

Love the kid. But money and status talk.

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:47 pm
by mdb1958
Turnovers and no defense is whats talking to me.

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:52 pm
by Caradoc
Cheb wrote:On the subject of Brate, Howard, and tight end usage in our offense, I've done a little research.

Remember when we were expecting a season of heavier use of 12 personnel (1 running back, 2 tight ends, 2 receivers), based on the OJ Howard pick? Lots of articles written, lots of nonsense said, lots of hype in general. Last year, before Howard, we ran with 12 personnel 31% of the time. That percentage should have gone up, right? Apparently wrong. This year, we ran 12 personnel 23% of the time.

You could argue that we were either behind on the scoreboard, or behind in down and distance, so we had to abandon it, but the stats just don't bear that out. When you control for those things, either by quarter or by down-and-distance or by how behind or ahead we are, it doesn't matter. Apparently, all our talk of outfoxing the opposition with crafty 12 personnel usage was hogwash.

If you want to dive into it and have time to spare or waste, I highly recommend https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html.



This makes us ask the question, "was using less 12 personnel a good thing or a bad thing?"

I think we would have done a lot better with more 12. I think Koetter's playcalling was worse this year (as do many others). Possibly this was because he was indecisive in how he was going to utilize all the new toys Licht got him.

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:52 pm
by mdb1958
Brate - one fumble in four years

Howard - three fumbles in 26 receptions

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:02 pm
by mdb1958
http://www.ganggreennation.com/2018/1/1 ... m-the-jets


About as close as you can get to another first round throwaway

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:16 pm
by mdb1958
The way you help yourselves is to identify and draft in a way that gets rid of these 10 plus million dollar contracts that arent earned.

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:24 pm
by Noles1724
mdb1958 wrote:Super Tim Wright anyone?

Did you know every 7 passes he caught a touchdown.


Did you know you can just STFU?

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:56 pm
by mdb1958
Noles1724 wrote:
mdb1958 wrote:Super Tim Wright anyone?

Did you know every 7 passes he caught a touchdown.


Did you know you can just STFU?


Ever notice I dont need to follow you around! Please go to a bar to have someone test your mettle.

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:14 pm
by Four Verticals
DanTurksGhost wrote:I agree with DN. I think Brate ends up here on a one-year tender. I think the Bucs expect the same. Howard and Auclair are the future for us at TE, at least that's what this regime want (hope) it to be. TBH, I think they're both going to pan out. Brate is terrific in the red zone and has good chemistry with Jameis, but financially the numbers won't work if they can't get him to sign a long-term deal this off-season. And actually, why would he, unless he really wants to be here.


2nd round tender. Find out about Auclair next season.

In addition, the current regime clearly likes the multiple TE sets whether they are referred to as 1a and 1b or anything else the babbling boob wants to argue about for 10 pages.

If Koetter's not back in 2019, the next crew may not like the same roster breakdown. If Koetter is back it may depend more on how Auclair looks than how much Brate will get paid.

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:18 pm
by Bootz2004
Four Verticals wrote:
DanTurksGhost wrote:I agree with DN. I think Brate ends up here on a one-year tender. I think the Bucs expect the same. Howard and Auclair are the future for us at TE, at least that's what this regime want (hope) it to be. TBH, I think they're both going to pan out. Brate is terrific in the red zone and has good chemistry with Jameis, but financially the numbers won't work if they can't get him to sign a long-term deal this off-season. And actually, why would he, unless he really wants to be here.


2nd round tender. Find out about Auclair next season.

In addition, the current regime clearly likes the multiple TE sets whether they are referred to as 1a and 1b or anything else the babbling boob wants to argue about for 10 pages.

If Koetter's not back in 2019, the next crew may not like the same roster breakdown. If Koetter is back it may depend more on how Auclair looks than how much Brate will get paid.


Current regime doesn't like multiple TE sets as much as fans think.

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:40 pm
by Four Verticals
Bootz2004 wrote:
Four Verticals wrote:
2nd round tender. Find out about Auclair next season.

In addition, the current regime clearly likes the multiple TE sets whether they are referred to as 1a and 1b or anything else the babbling boob wants to argue about for 10 pages.

If Koetter's not back in 2019, the next crew may not like the same roster breakdown. If Koetter is back it may depend more on how Auclair looks than how much Brate will get paid.


Current regime doesn't like multiple TE sets as much as fans think.


What the intention was and what the actual usage was can be very different things. Why would they have the number of TEs they kept around if they weren't planning on using 2 TE (at least) sets fairly frequently? Typically there were 3 active TEs and in some cases 4.

Also, the last 5 or 6 games (after Stocker was let go whenever that was), the Bucs were using Alan Cross as an H-Back about 25% of the times. So the staff obviously had an adjustment in their thinking during the year.

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:43 am
by MJW
Four Verticals wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
Current regime doesn't like multiple TE sets as much as fans think.


What the intention was and what the actual usage was can be very different things. Why would they have the number of TEs they kept around if they weren't planning on using 2 TE (at least) sets fairly frequently? Typically there were 3 active TEs and in some cases 4.

Also, the last 5 or 6 games (after Stocker was let go whenever that was), the Bucs were using Alan Cross as an H-Back about 25% of the times. So the staff obviously had an adjustment in their thinking during the year.


The fact Alan Cross started getting more work when Stocker left is a pretty clear indication of what OBP thinks about the Howard/Brate combo attack.

Re: Buccaneers Free Agents

PostPosted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:38 am
by Sammich
MJW wrote:
Four Verticals wrote:
What the intention was and what the actual usage was can be very different things. Why would they have the number of TEs they kept around if they weren't planning on using 2 TE (at least) sets fairly frequently? Typically there were 3 active TEs and in some cases 4.

Also, the last 5 or 6 games (after Stocker was let go whenever that was), the Bucs were using Alan Cross as an H-Back about 25% of the times. So the staff obviously had an adjustment in their thinking during the year.


The fact Alan Cross started getting more work when Stocker left is a pretty clear indication of what OBP thinks about the Howard/Brate combo attack.


Unless they decided they needed both a blocking TE and a fullback with how bad the oline was playing. They may have wanted to run more 2TE but felt they couldn't.