Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby theBKwhopper » Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:35 pm

His INTs were pretty bad yesterday. Especially the one that Barber should have been able to take to the house. And he had two bad passes that should have also been picked off. He's just gonna have those. But, he's also gonna make some incredible plays.
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby sanka » Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:42 pm

mdb1958 wrote:The relevance would not be magnified in your favor.

That was not the point of those stats.
"History is a set of lies agreed upon." - Napoleon
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby sanka » Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:44 pm

theBKwhopper wrote:His INTs were pretty bad yesterday. Especially the one that Barber should have been able to take to the house. And he had two bad passes that should have also been picked off. He's just gonna have those. But, he's also gonna make some incredible plays.

Yea that Barber's throw was a WTF play.....and it would have been a TD.
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby mdb1958 » Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:50 pm

sanka wrote:
mdb1958 wrote:The relevance would not be magnified in your favor.

That was not the point of those stats.



You do know the turnovers dont mean as much when your winning. Quiet the talk? Start winning.
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby sanka » Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:00 pm

mdb1958 wrote:
sanka wrote:That was not the point of those stats.



You do know the turnovers dont mean as much when your winning. Quiet the talk? Start winning.


You are right. Having a balanced team does which he doesn't have.
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby DanTurksGhost » Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:39 pm

Favre was able to almost will his Packers to victories, regardless of his in-game mistakes. I'd like Winston to become a guy like that in time.
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby Deja Entendu » Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:51 pm

DanTurksGhost wrote:Favre was able to almost will his Packers to victories, regardless of his in-game mistakes. I'd like Winston to become a guy like that in time.


Favre is exactly who I go to when non-Bucs fans ask me what the deal with Winston is. We can only hope that he progresses that way.
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby Nano » Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:52 pm

He's closer to Bortles than Favre
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby Bootz2004 » Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:53 pm

Nano wrote:He's closer to Bortles than Favre


How so
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby Deja Entendu » Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:55 pm

Nano wrote:He's closer to Bortles than Favre


No.
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby PetePierson » Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:06 pm

sanka wrote:INTs in First 45 career NFL starts:

Jameis – 44
Peyton – 58
Brady – 38
Big Ben – 46
Elway – 53
Stafford – 54
Marino – 50
Eli – 52
Luck – 40
Brees – 41
Montana – 40
Favre – 50
Unitas – 51


Now do the same excercise including fumbles / fumbles lost.

Thanks in advance, Folgers!
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby DanTurksGhost » Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:17 pm

Winston has a league worst 7 lost fumbles this season, despite missing three games. The good news is that Favre was a fumbling machine, posting 166 fumbles over his career. In Favre's first three seasons he fumbled the ball 33 times. On average, Favre fumbled the ball on average about NINE times per season over the course of his career. I say "good news" because Favre was able to be a great QB despite the fumbles and INT's. I'm hoping Jameis can be that, too.
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby theBKwhopper » Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:35 pm

sanka wrote:
theBKwhopper wrote:His INTs were pretty bad yesterday. Especially the one that Barber should have been able to take to the house. And he had two bad passes that should have also been picked off. He's just gonna have those. But, he's also gonna make some incredible plays.

Yea that Barber's throw was a WTF play.....and it would have been a TD.

It was so painful. Lol
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby MJW » Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:26 am

DanTurksGhost wrote:Winston has a league worst 7 lost fumbles this season, despite missing three games. The good news is that Favre was a fumbling machine, posting 166 fumbles over his career. In Favre's first three seasons he fumbled the ball 33 times. On average, Favre fumbled the ball on average about NINE times per season over the course of his career. I say "good news" because Favre was able to be a great QB despite the fumbles and INT's. I'm hoping Jameis can be that, too.


Three thoughts on this comparison:

One, it's a good comparison. If you remember Favre well, there's a lot of similarities there. The arm talent, the scrambling, the something out of nothing plays, and the nothing out of something plays, too. Favre had the benefit of being coached by Mike Holmgren, Stever Mariucci, Andy Reid, and other noted QB gurus. Winston has not had such a benefit to this point.

Two, it also highlights the problem with Winston and all these turnovers. Look, Favre is an all-time great to be sure. But his teams often underachieved. The Packers of the mid-late 90s SHOULD have won multiple Superbowls. They did not. Despite the best talent base of that era, they won one. Favre was the KING of losing playoff games he should have won, because he couldn't protect the ball. He lost as a home favorite in the playoffs in 2002, 2004, and 2007 (it wasn't a home game, but the 1997 Super Bowl factors in also.) There were a bunch of other games they could have won, except he turned the ball over multiple times.

It's very tough to win Superbowls behind a quarterback who turns the ball over like that. It's honestly that simple.

Point three ties into that. Favre's heyday was in a very different era. We can talk about Favre's turnovers, but when he led the league in 1993 with an astounding 24 interceptions, there were ten quarterbacks who had at least 15 picks. This year, there were three such quarterbacks. The game has changed. Passing is wide open. You can't hit receivers. You can't hit quarterbacks. And passing offenses have made a quantum leap since Favre's day. In other words, there's no reason to be throwing 20 interceptions a season. The teams that win protect the ball.
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby DanTurksGhost » Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:29 am

MJW wrote:
DanTurksGhost wrote:Winston has a league worst 7 lost fumbles this season, despite missing three games. The good news is that Favre was a fumbling machine, posting 166 fumbles over his career. In Favre's first three seasons he fumbled the ball 33 times. On average, Favre fumbled the ball on average about NINE times per season over the course of his career. I say "good news" because Favre was able to be a great QB despite the fumbles and INT's. I'm hoping Jameis can be that, too.


Three thoughts on this comparison:

One, it's a good comparison. If you remember Favre well, there's a lot of similarities there. The arm talent, the scrambling, the something out of nothing plays, and the nothing out of something plays, too. Favre had the benefit of being coached by Mike Holmgren, Stever Mariucci, Andy Reid, and other noted QB gurus. Winston has not had such a benefit to this point.

Two, it also highlights the problem with Winston and all these turnovers. Look, Favre is an all-time great to be sure. But his teams often underachieved. The Packers of the mid-late 90s SHOULD have won multiple Superbowls. They did not. Despite the best talent base of that era, they won one. Favre was the KING of losing playoff games he should have won, because he couldn't protect the ball. He lost as a home favorite in the playoffs in 2002, 2004, and 2007 (it wasn't a home game, but the 1997 Super Bowl factors in also.) There were a bunch of other games they could have won, except he turned the ball over multiple times.

It's very tough to win Superbowls behind a quarterback who turns the ball over like that. It's honestly that simple.

Point three ties into that. Favre's heyday was in a very different era. We can talk about Favre's turnovers, but when he led the league in 1993 with an astounding 24 interceptions, there were ten quarterbacks who had at least 15 picks. This year, there were three such quarterbacks. The game has changed. Passing is wide open. You can't hit receivers. You can't hit quarterbacks. And passing offenses have made a quantum leap since Favre's day. In other words, there's no reason to be throwing 20 interceptions a season. The teams that win protect the ball.


I find it very hard to disagree with you at all. Especially on point #3. It was something I was going to mention. The league has changed greatly since Favre came into the league, and it is MUCH more passer-friendly by design. That makes Winston's recklessness less tolerable than Favre's.
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby Doctor » Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:59 pm

I wonder how many fumbles were from the center-QB exchange? I'd say a good amount. That's something that should take care of itself if we can avoid ever putting EDS at center again and if Marpet simply gets more reps doing it. He should be more comfortable his second year around for obvious reasons.
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby Deja Entendu » Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:22 pm

Someone on Reddit did a breakdown of all of Jameis' fumbles.

The full breakdown is in the link, but here's the takeaway. I haven't done this myself (and I won't), so don't know the accuracy. I figured I'd share here though. Credit to u/SilentSentinel

Breakdown:
This is how I would break down the fumbles if I had to categorize them. I put question marks next to the couple I'm not super sure about. This is admittedly somewhat subjective so please let me know what you think.

QB-Center Exchange: 6 (1, 2, 3, 5?, 6, 14)

OL gets beat: 4 (7, 12, 13, 15)

QB-Skill Player Exchange: 2 (4, 10)

Winston trying to be a hero: 2 (8, 9?)

RB gets beat: 1 (11)

Takeaways:
5 of the first 6 fumbles involve Winston and Marpet having problems with the snap/exchange. 4 of those 5 occur while Winston is in shotgun. A lot of us voiced concerns with Marpet moving from Guard to center in the offseason. I think that Marpet's relative unfamiliarity with snapping the football and Winston not being used to Marpet may have contributed to these fumbles early in the year. After Marpet is injured and Smith/Hawley take over at Center (starting Week 13), only 1 of Winston's 7 remaining fumbles is a result of a muffed exchange. Hopefully Winston and Marpet can get more time together in the offseason and perfect their snaps, especially in shotgun.

I was expecting to see a lot more fumbles where Winston held the ball too long. There's definitely a couple where that happens but looking at the All-22 seems to imply that a few of them were simply on longer developing plays.

Both of the QB-Skill Player Exchange fumbles happened when Winston was handing off to a relatively inexperienced player. Bernard Reedy received the first one and Peyton Barber got the second. I think Reedy deserves more of the blame for his while Winston is a bit more at fault for the Barber handoff.

Conclusion:
The biggest cause of Winston's fumbles this year were muffed exchanges between himself and the Center Ali Marpet. Whether this problem is solved by returning Marpet to his previous position of Guard or simply giving Winston and Marpet another offseason to practice, this seems like a correctable issue to reduce his fumbles. Other than that, the biggest area for improvement would be for Winston to avoid being strip sacked by opposing defenders in the pocket. This is a tough thing to improve on his own as these players often hit his arm just as he's getting ready to throw, but quickening his release could possibly help this a small amount. Improving the pass protection around him so he's hit less often is the best way to reduce the risk of Winston fumbling though, so hopefully Licht and Koetter invest further in the OL this year.

Do you agree with the conclusions I arrived at from looking at Winstons fumbles? Is there something else from this past season that you'd like me to take a look at? I'd love to get feedback as I'm new to longer form analysis like this. Thanks for reading!


https://www.reddit.com/r/buccaneers/com ... nstons_15/
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby Bootz2004 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:33 pm

Seeing as people here turn a blind eye to anything Marpet does it's only natural that those fumbles would've been ignored and/or placed squarely on Winston's shoulders. 5 is too many. That speaks to the center more than it does the QB. Especially if 4 of them were from the shotgun. And we all remember it. Marpet was inaccurate in his snaps trying to get out of his stance quickly to take on his man.
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby mdb1958 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:04 pm

Wow! Are you guys really polishing turds?
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby real bucs fan » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:48 pm

You know what? There's a point there. As good as Marpet was otherwise, he did have a rough year snapping the ball. Essentially you could cut that fumble number in half just by shoring up exchanges and handoffs...
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby PrimeMinister » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:55 pm

real bucs fan wrote:You know what? There's a point there. As good as Marpet was otherwise, he did have a rough year snapping the ball. Essentially you could cut that fumble number in half just by shoring up exchanges and handoffs...


And we wouldn’t be talking about “Winston can’t take care of the ball”.
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby PrimeMinister » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:57 pm

Deja Entendu wrote:Someone on Reddit did a breakdown of all of Jameis' fumbles.

The full breakdown is in the link, but here's the takeaway. I haven't done this myself (and I won't), so don't know the accuracy. I figured I'd share here though. Credit to u/SilentSentinel

Breakdown:
This is how I would break down the fumbles if I had to categorize them. I put question marks next to the couple I'm not super sure about. This is admittedly somewhat subjective so please let me know what you think.

QB-Center Exchange: 6 (1, 2, 3, 5?, 6, 14)

OL gets beat: 4 (7, 12, 13, 15)

QB-Skill Player Exchange: 2 (4, 10)

Winston trying to be a hero: 2 (8, 9?)

RB gets beat: 1 (11)

Takeaways:
5 of the first 6 fumbles involve Winston and Marpet having problems with the snap/exchange. 4 of those 5 occur while Winston is in shotgun. A lot of us voiced concerns with Marpet moving from Guard to center in the offseason. I think that Marpet's relative unfamiliarity with snapping the football and Winston not being used to Marpet may have contributed to these fumbles early in the year. After Marpet is injured and Smith/Hawley take over at Center (starting Week 13), only 1 of Winston's 7 remaining fumbles is a result of a muffed exchange. Hopefully Winston and Marpet can get more time together in the offseason and perfect their snaps, especially in shotgun.

I was expecting to see a lot more fumbles where Winston held the ball too long. There's definitely a couple where that happens but looking at the All-22 seems to imply that a few of them were simply on longer developing plays.

Both of the QB-Skill Player Exchange fumbles happened when Winston was handing off to a relatively inexperienced player. Bernard Reedy received the first one and Peyton Barber got the second. I think Reedy deserves more of the blame for his while Winston is a bit more at fault for the Barber handoff.

Conclusion:
The biggest cause of Winston's fumbles this year were muffed exchanges between himself and the Center Ali Marpet. Whether this problem is solved by returning Marpet to his previous position of Guard or simply giving Winston and Marpet another offseason to practice, this seems like a correctable issue to reduce his fumbles. Other than that, the biggest area for improvement would be for Winston to avoid being strip sacked by opposing defenders in the pocket. This is a tough thing to improve on his own as these players often hit his arm just as he's getting ready to throw, but quickening his release could possibly help this a small amount. Improving the pass protection around him so he's hit less often is the best way to reduce the risk of Winston fumbling though, so hopefully Licht and Koetter invest further in the OL this year.

Do you agree with the conclusions I arrived at from looking at Winstons fumbles? Is there something else from this past season that you'd like me to take a look at? I'd love to get feedback as I'm new to longer form analysis like this. Thanks for reading!


https://www.reddit.com/r/buccaneers/com ... nstons_15/


Great find. Thanks, man.

Does this change anyone’s opinion on Winston’s “turnover issues”?
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby MJW » Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:30 am

PrimeMinister wrote:
Deja Entendu wrote:Someone on Reddit did a breakdown of all of Jameis' fumbles.

The full breakdown is in the link, but here's the takeaway. I haven't done this myself (and I won't), so don't know the accuracy. I figured I'd share here though. Credit to u/SilentSentinel



https://www.reddit.com/r/buccaneers/com ... nstons_15/


Great find. Thanks, man.

Does this change anyone’s opinion on Winston’s “turnover issues”?


Every quarterback fumbles a few center exchanges a year. Marpet needs to work on his snapping, and I'm sure he will. It was definitely a few more than is acceptable and if you want to give Winston a pass on a few of those (versus the rest of the league) Mazel Tov. But I have no clue why Winston would be excused for fumbling because his offensive line allows a pass rusher to get to him. Does that imply that Winston is really great at not fumbling when his offensive line DOESN'T get beat? So am I. If nobody hits me, I can hold a football for hours on end. What's the point?
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby Bootz2004 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:42 am

MJW wrote:
PrimeMinister wrote:
Great find. Thanks, man.

Does this change anyone’s opinion on Winston’s “turnover issues”?


Every quarterback fumbles a few center exchanges a year. Marpet needs to work on his snapping, and I'm sure he will. It was definitely a few more than is acceptable and if you want to give Winston a pass on a few of those (versus the rest of the league) Mazel Tov. But I have no clue why Winston would be excused for fumbling because his offensive line allows a pass rusher to get to him. Does that imply that Winston is really great at not fumbling when his offensive line DOESN'T get beat? So am I. If nobody hits me, I can hold a football for hours on end. What's the point?


So MJW confirms she's never heard of a strip/sack before. Got it.
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby mdb1958 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:59 am

Lots of teams have strip sacks on them and many recover they're own fumble, then there is "Winston" he just has to make them the worst in the history of the game! He does it in a way, you'd think someone zapped him with a cattle prod stuck in his azz.


Polish that one.
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby MJW » Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:50 am

Bootz2004 wrote:
MJW wrote:
Every quarterback fumbles a few center exchanges a year. Marpet needs to work on his snapping, and I'm sure he will. It was definitely a few more than is acceptable and if you want to give Winston a pass on a few of those (versus the rest of the league) Mazel Tov. But I have no clue why Winston would be excused for fumbling because his offensive line allows a pass rusher to get to him. Does that imply that Winston is really great at not fumbling when his offensive line DOESN'T get beat? So am I. If nobody hits me, I can hold a football for hours on end. What's the point?


So MJW confirms she's never heard of a strip/sack before. Got it.


No, I'm confirming that the post requires us to pretend QB fumbles caused by pass rushers shouldn't count against the quarterback, which invalidates the entire concept of a quarterback fumbling more than it defend's Winston's penchant for doing so.
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby Doctor » Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:51 am

Think you're splitting hairs.

There IS a difference between a sack fumble and a QB fumble. If Winston gets nailed from behind by an unblocked DE he didn't see one second after the snap because he has his eyes downfield- that's not REALLY his fault. I mean, yes, he fumbled, but the point is that he was doing HIS job- going through his reads- and the OT didn't do their job. Likewise, if you hold the ball for too long and then get hit or try to extend the play or get rid of it when half going to the ground and you fumble- that's on the QB. The OL did their job and bought you the expected amount of time, your job as a QB is to either find the open target, tuck it and run, or get rid of it. If you choose to extend the play, that's on you. And the fumble from it is on you.

I think both of you have a point. At the end, you still want your QB to be able to feel his blindside and protect the ball when the OT fails to do his job. Likewise, if the fumble is caused by someone else not doing their job, you can only clean up their mess so much. Dedicating extra attention to cleaning up other peoples failures leads to happy feet and bad throws. I'd much rather risk the occasional blind side strip sack and have a QB with his eyes down field, than one that is getting happy feet in the pocket.
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby mdb1958 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:16 pm

Clay Mathews has the fastest sack on Winston 2.48 seconds, doesnt matter though because Winston can work his magic at 4.92 seconds.
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby DanTurksGhost » Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:02 pm

PrimeMinister wrote:Does this change anyone’s opinion on Winston’s “turnover issues”?


Not me. Assigning a fumble to the OC/QB exchange doesn't quantify as to why the fumbles happened in the exchange. Just because a fumble occurred between the OC and the QB doesn't make it the center's fault. Ball security, along with maturity and decision making, are still issues for Winston. He should be quite capable of fixing those things, so let's hope that he does. But trying to assign the blame isn't productive. Regardless of where the blame lies, it needs to be fixed. Both Winston AND Marpet have to work together to improve on that.
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Re: Monken: Winston's fumbles as "catastrophic" as INT's

Postby mdb1958 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:23 pm

His strip sack act is absolute magic, its as if the ball instantly fills with helium and floats out of his hand to a waiting defender.
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