Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Team Discussions regarding games, players, coaches, or anything else related to Buccaneer Football.
post

Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby Doctor » Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:44 am

Often a HC with a top pick will be married to it for his career. Not often spoken of is how much the bond is the other way around as well. We need to decide if we will pick up Winstons fifth-year option or not, though in all likeliness we will. Even so the 4th year is usually the make or break year for a QB because you usually want to have them signed to an extension after that. Do we really want Winston's make or break year to be under a new HC and a new scheme? In all likelihood, it probably won't make for a very convincing year. And if it's a particularly down year the new HC could go out there and get "his guy", something we've seen far too often in the modern NFL. The G-Boys would have established a tragic reputation for cutting ways with a coach after just a couple of years, so if it's not an instant success with Winston with his first year in the system the coach may not want to bet his career on him. Heck, if he's not particularly a Winston fan off the bat he could go out and draft a guy this very draft. We're high enough and there are a lot of impressive QBs.

I can't think of any QB that has survived a critical year coaching change for the better. Stafford comes to mind, but he actually got his extension during Schwartz last year so Caldwell knew he was locked into him when he joined the franchise. No "my guy" stuff there. Bortles could somewhat qualify, but despite changing from Gus to Maroone, Hackett has been his OC the entire time so it's not like he had a scheme change. Can anyone think of someone?

Moving to a new scheme would likely be the nail in the coffin for Winston as "not our franchise QB" or at the very least stack the deck very much against him.

EDIT: Not talking about Gruden in particular.
Last edited by Doctor on Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
Image
User avatar
Doctor
 
Posts: 4166
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 6:54 pm
Location: Out of the Office. Will return next Fall.
Has thanked: 182 times
Been thanked: 115 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby Brazen331 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:55 am

I would argue that you are giving up on Winston if you don’t give up on Koetter. At this point, how can you make an accurate judgement whether to sign Winston to a mega-contract or not if you DON’T see him perform under someone else?

He has only performed under Koetter and after 3 years we still don’t know if we have a lemon on our hands. How about we try someone else and find out before shelling out the money?
Brazen331
 
Posts: 2070
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:25 am
Has thanked: 11 times
Been thanked: 37 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby BCULAW » Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:53 am

I see your reasoning but I’m not sure I agree. You are assuming that the Glazers see Winston’s trial period as his rookie contract (which is the case most times). But most QBs aren’t 24 years old at the end of their rookie contract. Winston will be. Unlike most of the top flight QB prospects, Winston only played 2 years of college ball. After Manning, the prevailing theory was the most QBs were best served by staying in school for all four years. Winston got half of that experience. As a result, the Glazers may have in mind that the team needs more than his rookie contract to evaluate what he is. In other words, I think his second contract has always pretty much been a foregone conclusion absent some major performance deficiency or off field problems. I don’t think we have the first. The latter TBD, although most would have to agree that Winston has appeared to be a model citizen in the community and a great addition to the locker room since day 1, so you would hope these allegations are misplaced or unfounded.

Ask yourself this: As hard as it is to find a “franchise QB,” if you had a 24 (or 25) year old QB who was solidly established as a team leader, was the hardest worker on your team and dedicated to his craft, a “middle tier” QB (12-18) among his peers, and had shown potential to be an upper tier QB, but needed to improve on consistency and ball protection to take that step, would you give him more time, or blow it up? That’s Winston.

He really is a unique case due to his age and seemingly limitless potential. You just know he’s going to be special when things “click.” The question is when and if they will. Because he came out so early and at such a young age, you can’t really prescribe a developmental curve for him.

Of course, all of could change under new management. I’d suggest Jameis Winston is far harder to replace than Dirk Koetter, so JW will get more opportunities than DK to “fix” things. That said, a HC like Bill Belicheck is far more valuable than even a prospect like Jameis Winston. If the Bucs do bring in a new coach (or GM) that the Glazers think is a “generational” type leader (Gruden and maybe Harbaugh come to mind as “established” leader the Glazers might defer to), and they don’t believe in Winston, then all bets are off.
BCULAW
 
Posts: 26
Joined: Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:46 pm
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 1 time

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby mdb1958 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:09 am

I have not called for giving up on either. Anybody thinking replacing them with thoughts of us going anywhere soon are just wishing.
mdb1958
 
Posts: 7018
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:11 pm
Has thanked: 136 times
Been thanked: 66 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby Brazen331 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:23 am

Wasn't Winston the reason Koetter was promoted to HC in the first place? I just have a hard time sympathizing with the notion that he must be retained because of Winston. Maybe I'd feel better about it if his offense didn't look so anachronistic, so archaic compared to pretty much every other offense in the league?

So put me down as someone dying to see Winston under a new regime. It's going to be off-the-field stuff that will endanger his chance of a second contract here not his inaccuracy or absurdly stupid TOs.
Brazen331
 
Posts: 2070
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:25 am
Has thanked: 11 times
Been thanked: 37 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby Super K » Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:07 am

In regards to Gruden, he has said time and again his biggest mistake was not drafting and developing a young, talented QB...

So IF brothers Glazer were seriously in talks with him and he communicated that his plan was something to the effect of "I'm not sold on JW, I think we should look to trade him for picks. The guy I REALLY like is Kirk Cousins, let's toss a bunch of cash his way and bring him in..."

I think the door gets slammed in his face..
Super K
 
Posts: 5115
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 3:26 pm
Has thanked: 0 time
Been thanked: 131 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby Brazen331 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:32 am

I have zero concern with Gruden not wanting to work with Winston. Where is this coming from? Any evidence or are people just assuming this? I even rewatched the Gruden HN episode and examined his body language when talking to Winston and when Winston was mentioned. I got the the impression that he is quite impressed with Winston. He called him an MVP candidate at the start of the season. With his ego...you don't think he wants to be the one who fixes and unleashes him?

Now, Winston's body language towards him...that's a different story.
Brazen331
 
Posts: 2070
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:25 am
Has thanked: 11 times
Been thanked: 37 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby mdb1958 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:44 am

Uming is trendy right now.
mdb1958
 
Posts: 7018
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:11 pm
Has thanked: 136 times
Been thanked: 66 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby Noles1724 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:10 am

I think some are ok with that (thread title).
Image
Noles1724
 
Posts: 1541
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:15 pm
Has thanked: 74 times
Been thanked: 56 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby BucaRican » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:38 am

Super K wrote:In regards to Gruden, he has said time and again his biggest mistake was not drafting and developing a young, talented QB...

So IF brothers Glazer were seriously in talks with him and he communicated that his plan was something to the effect of "I'm not sold on JW, I think we should look to trade him for picks. The guy I REALLY like is Kirk Cousins, let's toss a bunch of cash his way and bring him in..."

I think the door gets slammed in his face..


Yes and Yes. Cousins would be great. Winston is who he is. Once Josh Freeman was lost he never came back. Winston can have all the talent in the world but there is no fixing who he is.
Image
BucaRican
 
Posts: 521
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 10:53 am
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 7 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby Bootz2004 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:20 am

If Gruden had the chance to coach Jameis Winston I have zero doubts that he'd be all in. He's worked with him and been in the film room, practice field with him during the draft process. Gruden knows he's smart and very capable of being a top NFL QB. No way he would turn that down.
User avatar
Bootz2004
 
Posts: 18295
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:17 pm
Has thanked: 98 times
Been thanked: 396 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby Doctor » Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:36 am

Wait, did I miss something? Why is everyone fixating on Gruden in this thread?
Image
User avatar
Doctor
 
Posts: 4166
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 6:54 pm
Location: Out of the Office. Will return next Fall.
Has thanked: 182 times
Been thanked: 115 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby Noles1724 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:38 am

Doctor wrote:Wait, did I miss something? Why is everyone fixating on Gruden in this thread?


because we're 4-9
Image
Noles1724
 
Posts: 1541
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:15 pm
Has thanked: 74 times
Been thanked: 56 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby Hit55 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:48 am

Noles1724 wrote:
Doctor wrote:Wait, did I miss something? Why is everyone fixating on Gruden in this thread?


because we're 4-9

Ha!
User avatar
Hit55
 
Posts: 552
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:06 am
Has thanked: 61 times
Been thanked: 13 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby Super K » Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:28 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:If Gruden had the chance to coach Jameis Winston I have zero doubts that he'd be all in. He's worked with him and been in the film room, practice field with him during the draft process. Gruden knows he's smart and very capable of being a top NFL QB. No way he would turn that down.


Exactly...
Super K
 
Posts: 5115
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 3:26 pm
Has thanked: 0 time
Been thanked: 131 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby The Outsider » Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:34 pm

Jon, bby, come back pls.
Image
User avatar
The Outsider
 
Posts: 2516
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:02 pm
Location: Gettin' all up in ya
Has thanked: 31 times
Been thanked: 185 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby mdb1958 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:49 pm

The Outsider wrote:Jon, bby, come back pls.



After ten years off, everyone wanting to see the Chucky scowl.
mdb1958
 
Posts: 7018
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:11 pm
Has thanked: 136 times
Been thanked: 66 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby BCULAW » Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:41 pm

I can’t lie, the idea of Gruden and Jameis racing each other to be first in the building each morning really is intriguing to me. I have visions of them grinding over film at 4:45 AM every morning.
BCULAW
 
Posts: 26
Joined: Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:46 pm
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 1 time

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:53 pm

BCULAW wrote:I can’t lie, the idea of Gruden and Jameis racing each other to be first in the building each morning really is intriguing to me. I have visions of them grinding over film at 4:45 AM every morning.

"Look, Jameis. See how you're looking at Mike Evans on this play? See how you got Mike there in tight coverage? And whose that over the top? The safety, right? Now look over here at Desean Jackson. What is he?......yes I know he's a wide receiver but what else is he?....yeah he's black too, but what else? That's right, he's open. Now I'm not the smartest guy out there and I've already been fired from this job, but I'm telling you that if you throw an accurate ball to a wide open receiver standing in the end zone, you're gonna score a touchdown most of the time. You get what I'm saying?"
Image
User avatar
Mountaineer Buc
 
Posts: 8631
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:15 pm
Has thanked: 86 times
Been thanked: 495 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby Bootz2004 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:57 pm

Mountaineer Buc wrote:
BCULAW wrote:I can’t lie, the idea of Gruden and Jameis racing each other to be first in the building each morning really is intriguing to me. I have visions of them grinding over film at 4:45 AM every morning.

"Look, Jameis. See how you're looking at Mike Evans on this play? See how you got Mike there in tight coverage? And whose that over the top? The safety, right? Now look over here at Desean Jackson. What is he?......yes I know he's a wide receiver but what else is he?....yeah he's black too, but what else? That's right, he's open. Now I'm not the smartest guy out there and I've already been fired from this job, but I'm telling you that if you throw an accurate ball to a wide open receiver standing in the end zone, you're gonna score a touchdown most of the time. You get what I'm saying?"


Not 1 F-bomb and I'm supposed to believe this came from Jon Gruden? Fake news.
User avatar
Bootz2004
 
Posts: 18295
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:17 pm
Has thanked: 98 times
Been thanked: 396 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby The Outsider » Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:01 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
Mountaineer Buc wrote:"Look, Jameis. See how you're looking at Mike Evans on this play? See how you got Mike there in tight coverage? And whose that over the top? The safety, right? Now look over here at Desean Jackson. What is he?......yes I know he's a wide receiver but what else is he?....yeah he's black too, but what else? That's right, he's open. Now I'm not the smartest guy out there and I've already been fired from this job, but I'm telling you that if you throw an accurate ball to a wide open receiver standing in the end zone, you're gonna score a touchdown most of the time. You get what I'm saying?"


Not 1 F-bomb and I'm supposed to believe this came from Jon Gruden? Fake news.


Reads like John Madden.
Image
User avatar
The Outsider
 
Posts: 2516
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:02 pm
Location: Gettin' all up in ya
Has thanked: 31 times
Been thanked: 185 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby Cheb » Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:17 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
Mountaineer Buc wrote:"Look, Jameis. See how you're looking at Mike Evans on this play? See how you got Mike there in tight coverage? And whose that over the top? The safety, right? Now look over here at Desean Jackson. What is he?......yes I know he's a wide receiver but what else is he?....yeah he's black too, but what else? That's right, he's open. Now I'm not the smartest guy out there and I've already been fired from this job, but I'm telling you that if you throw an accurate ball to a wide open receiver standing in the end zone, you're gonna score a touchdown most of the time. You get what I'm saying?"


Not 1 F-bomb and I'm supposed to believe this came from Jon Gruden? Fake news.


He saves the profanity to yell on the field. Gotta keep it clean in the first room.
Image
Cheb
 
Posts: 2641
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:00 pm
Location: West Coast
Has thanked: 30 times
Been thanked: 221 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby terrytate » Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:54 am

Lots of great QB's got better with their second coach. Peyton Manning comes to mind, as does Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford and Phillip Rivers.

By no means is giving up on Koetter than same as giving up on Winston. In fact, Winston would be the key to getting a new coach. I suspect there will be a lot of coaches wanting to work with Winston, believing they can get him to reach his potential.
User avatar
terrytate
 
Posts: 1755
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:49 am
Has thanked: 11 times
Been thanked: 74 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby mdb1958 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:56 am

Winston has to change who Winston is.
mdb1958
 
Posts: 7018
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:11 pm
Has thanked: 136 times
Been thanked: 66 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby BucaRican » Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:09 am

mdb1958 wrote:Winston has to change who Winston is.


Well he can't with the same coach. Honestly Goff exhibit a, the offence was tailored for him, not forcing him to adapt to it. That was done via a coaching change. Winston is who he is. Unless we find out with a coach that uses his strengths, we may never know how good he can be.
Image
BucaRican
 
Posts: 521
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 10:53 am
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 7 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby RedLeader » Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:37 am

mdb1958 wrote:Winston has to change who Winston is.


“...he has the gift, but he seems to be waiting for something, maybe his next life.”
User avatar
RedLeader
 
Posts: 1729
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 3:27 pm
Has thanked: 50 times
Been thanked: 68 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby Doctor » Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:30 am

terrytate wrote:Lots of great QB's got better with their second coach. Peyton Manning comes to mind, as does Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford and Phillip Rivers.

By no means is giving up on Koetter than same as giving up on Winston. In fact, Winston would be the key to getting a new coach. I suspect there will be a lot of coaches wanting to work with Winston, believing they can get him to reach his potential.

Right, but you are missing the whole point of the OP. All those guys were locked up BEFORE their next coach came in. They all got their second contract, in other words, declared "yes, this is our franchise QB", under their first coach/scheme. None earned their second contract during a contract year under a new offense and HC.

Those situations would be equivalent to Winston having a good 4th year under DK, getting a new franchise QB contract, and THEN us moving on to another HC during his 5th or 6th year.
Image
User avatar
Doctor
 
Posts: 4166
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 6:54 pm
Location: Out of the Office. Will return next Fall.
Has thanked: 182 times
Been thanked: 115 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby PrimeMinister » Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:51 am

Doctor wrote:
terrytate wrote:Lots of great QB's got better with their second coach. Peyton Manning comes to mind, as does Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford and Phillip Rivers.

By no means is giving up on Koetter than same as giving up on Winston. In fact, Winston would be the key to getting a new coach. I suspect there will be a lot of coaches wanting to work with Winston, believing they can get him to reach his potential.

Right, but you are missing the whole point of the OP. All those guys were locked up BEFORE their next coach came in. They all got their second contract, in other words, declared "yes, this is our franchise QB", under their first coach/scheme. None earned their second contract during a contract year under a new offense and HC.

Those situations would be equivalent to Winston having a good 4th year under DK, getting a new franchise QB contract, and THEN us moving on to another HC during his 5th or 6th year.


Your premise is so specific that it’s near impossible to find the exact correlation. And your premise is still wrong.

How many total QBs fit into the exact situation you’re describing? Include those who failed as well, please.
PrimeMinister
 
Posts: 5972
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:34 am
Has thanked: 27 times
Been thanked: 151 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby NYBF » Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:36 pm

BucaRican wrote:
mdb1958 wrote:Winston has to change who Winston is.


Well he can't with the same coach. Honestly Goff exhibit a, the offence was tailored for him, not forcing him to adapt to it. That was done via a coaching change. Winston is who he is. Unless we find out with a coach that uses his strengths, we may never know how good he can be.


I'm not giving up on either, but you're telling me Koetter runs the "when you're about to get sacked pitch the ball to the defensive lineman" play?
Image
User avatar
NYBF
 
Posts: 4049
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 11:46 am
Has thanked: 160 times
Been thanked: 365 times

Re: Giving up on Koetter is giving up on Winston

Postby Doctor » Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:48 pm

PrimeMinister wrote:
Doctor wrote:Right, but you are missing the whole point of the OP. All those guys were locked up BEFORE their next coach came in. They all got their second contract, in other words, declared "yes, this is our franchise QB", under their first coach/scheme. None earned their second contract during a contract year under a new offense and HC.

Those situations would be equivalent to Winston having a good 4th year under DK, getting a new franchise QB contract, and THEN us moving on to another HC during his 5th or 6th year.


Your premise is so specific that it’s near impossible to find the exact correlation. And your premise is still wrong.

How many total QBs fit into the exact situation you’re describing? Include those who failed as well, please.

Near impossible to find a SUCCESSFUL correlation, and that's my point. There's plenty example of exactly what I'm talking about ending exactly how I'm saying...

Our very own Josh Freeman. 3 Years under Raheem. After one year under Schiano, Freeman is done.
RGIII had Mike Shanahan at first then switch to Jay Gruden. After one year under Gruden RGIII is done.
Jamarcus Russell has Lane Kiffin at first, then switch to Tom Cable. After one year under Cable, Russell is done.
Brady Quinn had Romeo Crennel at first, then they switch to Eric Mangini. After one year under Magnifi, Quinn is done.
Jake Locker had Mike Mularkey at first, then they switch to Ken Whisenhunt. After one year under Ken, Locker is done.
Chris Ponder on the Vikings under Fraiser. New HC, they move on to Teddy.
Jay Cutler is seen as a franchise QB for the Broncos. New HC, moves on to his guy.
Jason Campbell was seen a franchise QB for the Redskins. New HC, they move on.
Vince Young under Jeff Fisher. New HC, they move on.

You might say "yeah, but all those guys were busts". True, but what label do you think Winston will get if we switch HCs next year and he has a down year to be one and done also? These coaches were supposed to turn around these QBs, save them, take them to the next level, have them "reach their potential". But the "saving" year cannot also be their "evaluation" year, it doesn't end well. If they even get that, cause not all do (Cutler, Campbell, Young).

On the flip side:
Matthew Stafford starts under Schwartz and gets his second contract under him, Lions later move on to Caldwell- Stafford is the franchise.
Matt Ryan starts under Mike Smith and gets his second contract under him, Falcons later move on to Dan Quinn- Ryan plays in a Superbowl.
Ryan Tannehill starts under Joe Philbin and gets his second contract under him, Dolphins later move on to Adam Gase- Tannehill is hurt and this isn't a great example, but the point is he got his second contract under his first coach.


So I say again, if you believe in Winston, you'll want to keep him with DK until he gets his second contract. If after that you still don't think DK is the right guy, we can move on. Moving on now is practically a death sentence for Winston.
Image
User avatar
Doctor
 
Posts: 4166
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 6:54 pm
Location: Out of the Office. Will return next Fall.
Has thanked: 182 times
Been thanked: 115 times

Next

post

Return to Team Discussions

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], Cheb, PlinkoBuccaneer, The Outsider and 7 guests