The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Team Discussions regarding games, players, coaches, or anything else related to Buccaneer Football.
post

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby MJW » Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:25 am

Bootz2004 wrote:I think all things being equal everyone should want Roberto to win the job. Doesn't mean he will. But why wouldn't you want a guy we used a 2nd round pick on, is 23 years old and has a chance to improve, to win the job.


In a vacuum, you're right, of course. But he needs to win it outright, not "play comparably" and get it handed to him.

Also, I should add that trust has to be earned and I don't trust him a bit. So on that level, I'll be relieved if Folk wins the job. Folk has been in the league a decade and undoubtedly hit some very big kicks during that time.

I'm not claiming this is the CORRECT posture. I'm just saying that's what my gut will feel if Folk wins it - relief.
Image
User avatar
MJW
 
Posts: 8850
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:17 am
Location: Nebraska
Has thanked: 206 times
Been thanked: 386 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby Doctor » Fri Jun 02, 2017 1:06 pm

The Outsider wrote:And because I like artificially inflating my post count, this article with the included graphics does a pretty good job explaining the difficulty in analyzing kickers by using year to year percentage statistics.

http://www.tampabay.com/sports/football ... et/2325751

Great article.
Image
User avatar
Doctor
 
Posts: 5270
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 6:54 pm
Location: Out of the Office. Will return next Fall.
Has thanked: 225 times
Been thanked: 154 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby Bootz2004 » Fri Jun 02, 2017 6:12 pm

Jason Licht on the kicking competition

“The media doesn’t see the other 10 or 20 kicks that they do per day on the other field. They’re being charted, too. I’m not going to tell you what they are. But if people actually knew how Roberto was doing over there, they wouldn’t have taken the Day One report from the skinny posts like they did and made such a big deal of it. But they can only report what they see and I understand that.
User avatar
Bootz2004
 
Posts: 24607
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:17 pm
Has thanked: 97 times
Been thanked: 523 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby DanTurksGhost » Fri Jun 02, 2017 7:18 pm

Licht sounds like a guy who's preparing us for handing Aguayo the job even if Folk out-kicks him. "You guys only saw the kicks in the games, we're judging him on all those kicks he made in practice, too".
User avatar
DanTurksGhost
 
Posts: 1537
Joined: Wed Sep 14, 2016 5:56 pm
Has thanked: 28 times
Been thanked: 54 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby Bootz2004 » Fri Jun 02, 2017 7:57 pm

DanTurksGhost wrote:Licht sounds like a guy who's preparing us for handing Aguayo the job even if Folk out-kicks him. "You guys only saw the kicks in the games, we're judging him on all those kicks he made in practice, too".


You speak as if you expect Folk to "out kick" Aguayo or choose to beliece Folk is/should win regardless of what they say in practice.
User avatar
Bootz2004
 
Posts: 24607
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:17 pm
Has thanked: 97 times
Been thanked: 523 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby Caradoc » Fri Jun 02, 2017 8:00 pm

DanTurksGhost wrote:Licht sounds like a guy who's preparing us for handing Aguayo the job even if Folk out-kicks him. "You guys only saw the kicks in the games, we're judging him on all those kicks he made in practice, too".



Actually he sounds more like a guy who sees a witch hunt starting and is trying to slow it down.
Caradoc
 
Posts: 4628
Joined: Sat Sep 26, 2015 10:30 pm
Has thanked: 241 times
Been thanked: 135 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby DanTurksGhost » Fri Jun 02, 2017 8:13 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
DanTurksGhost wrote:Licht sounds like a guy who's preparing us for handing Aguayo the job even if Folk out-kicks him. "You guys only saw the kicks in the games, we're judging him on all those kicks he made in practice, too".


You speak as if you expect Folk to "out kick" Aguayo or choose to beliece Folk is/should win regardless of what they say in practice.


Nope. If you read my posts, you'll see that I prefer Aguayo to win the job. I said so right upthread. So... try again.
User avatar
DanTurksGhost
 
Posts: 1537
Joined: Wed Sep 14, 2016 5:56 pm
Has thanked: 28 times
Been thanked: 54 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby DanTurksGhost » Fri Jun 02, 2017 8:18 pm

Caradoc wrote:Actually he sounds more like a guy who sees a witch hunt starting and is trying to slow it down.


Then Licht needs to try harder. I want Aguayo to win the job, but if he's just handed the roster spot it will say an awful lot about what Licht cares about -- covering his own ass. Aguayo deserves every bit of criticism he receives. What he doesn't deserve criticism for is where he was drafted. He had nothing to do with that. That's on Licht. If Aguayo tanks, it's a big black mark on Licht's record. I would prefer that our GM makes a decision on which player will best help the team win, not on where (or if) he was drafted.

I'm not making any assumptions. Based on our investment, I hope Aguayo wins the job because he kicks lights out. But if Folk is the better kicker, then Folk better be the guy who makes the final roster and Licht had better be prepared to let Aguago go, no matter how embarrassing it is for him personally.
User avatar
DanTurksGhost
 
Posts: 1537
Joined: Wed Sep 14, 2016 5:56 pm
Has thanked: 28 times
Been thanked: 54 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby Bootz2004 » Fri Jun 02, 2017 9:36 pm

So what's the solution if it is close? Hand Folk the job?
User avatar
Bootz2004
 
Posts: 24607
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:17 pm
Has thanked: 97 times
Been thanked: 523 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby DanTurksGhost » Fri Jun 02, 2017 9:54 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:So what's the solution if it is close? Hand Folk the job?


If the competition is dead even, Aguayo should get the job simply because of his age and our investment in him. If it's close, then the team needs to sit down with a evaluation sheet for each player and compare one with the other. If either clearly kicks better, then that player should be given the spot regardless of draft status.
User avatar
DanTurksGhost
 
Posts: 1537
Joined: Wed Sep 14, 2016 5:56 pm
Has thanked: 28 times
Been thanked: 54 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby real bucs fan » Fri Jun 02, 2017 11:04 pm

If the competition is close, give it to Folk. Guy has a 10 year track record in the NFL. Aguayo has exactly zero good seasons in the big leagues.
Image
real bucs fan
 
Posts: 8360
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:59 pm
Has thanked: 926 times
Been thanked: 120 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby PrimeMinister » Fri Jun 02, 2017 11:09 pm

real bucs fan wrote:If the competition is close, give it to Folk. Guy has a 10 year track record in the NFL. Aguayo has exactly zero good seasons in the big leagues.


Folk's 10 year track record isn't that great.
PrimeMinister
 
Posts: 8604
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:34 am
Has thanked: 35 times
Been thanked: 227 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby real bucs fan » Sat Jun 03, 2017 12:10 am

PrimeMinister wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:If the competition is close, give it to Folk. Guy has a 10 year track record in the NFL. Aguayo has exactly zero good seasons in the big leagues.


Folk's 10 year track record isn't that great.

It's pretty damn good. And then focus in on the last 4 years specifically, and you're talking north of 85%. That's very good. Guy only got released to save money on a rebuilding team tanking for a QB.
Image
real bucs fan
 
Posts: 8360
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:59 pm
Has thanked: 926 times
Been thanked: 120 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby MJW » Sat Jun 03, 2017 1:18 am

What impresses me about Folk is that he's been excellent inside 40. Between XPs to 39 yards out, he's hit 96.6% of his kicks in his career. Even with the inflation from playing with the "old" extra points for much of his career, that's a great number.

The trouble is the longer kicks. He's only hit 68% from 40 and out in his career.

This might sound goofy...but what if we kept them both? It's been done before. Use Folk inside 40, and Aguayo for longer attempts and kickoffs?
Image
User avatar
MJW
 
Posts: 8850
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:17 am
Location: Nebraska
Has thanked: 206 times
Been thanked: 386 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby Caradoc » Sat Jun 03, 2017 1:21 am

MJW wrote:What impresses me about Folk is that he's been excellent inside 40. Between XPs to 39 yards out, he's hit 96.6% of his kicks in his career. Even with the inflation from playing with the "old" extra points for much of his career, that's a great number.

The trouble is the longer kicks. He's only hit 68% from 40 and out in his career.

This might sound goofy...but what if we kept them both? It's been done before. Use Folk inside 40, and Aguayo for longer attempts and kickoffs?



Only time that has been "done before" that I can think of is when a punter can boom those long kickoffs. I'd like a link for your assertion other than that.
Caradoc
 
Posts: 4628
Joined: Sat Sep 26, 2015 10:30 pm
Has thanked: 241 times
Been thanked: 135 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby mdb1958 » Sat Jun 03, 2017 7:03 am

Bootz2004 wrote:So what's the solution if it is close? Hand Folk the job?



They both offer concern to me at the moment.
mdb1958
 
Posts: 9783
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:11 pm
Has thanked: 158 times
Been thanked: 91 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby Super K » Sat Jun 03, 2017 7:33 am

MJW wrote:What impresses me about Folk is that he's been excellent inside 40. Between XPs to 39 yards out, he's hit 96.6% of his kicks in his career. Even with the inflation from playing with the "old" extra points for much of his career, that's a great number.

The trouble is the longer kicks. He's only hit 68% from 40 and out in his career.

This might sound goofy...but what if we kept them both? It's been done before. Use Folk inside 40, and Aguayo for longer attempts and kickoffs?


Longer kicks are where Bobby has struggled, even in college..
User avatar
Super K
 
Posts: 7541
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 3:26 pm
Has thanked: 0 time
Been thanked: 221 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby Zarniwoop » Sat Jun 03, 2017 9:23 am

The Browns of the 80s kept 2 kickers. Steve Cox was only used for kickoffs and anything over 50. I think he nailed a 62 or 63 yard we once
Zarniwoop
 
Posts: 6515
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:23 pm
Has thanked: 334 times
Been thanked: 287 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby The Outsider » Sat Jun 03, 2017 10:29 am

real bucs fan wrote:
PrimeMinister wrote:
Folk's 10 year track record isn't that great.

It's pretty damn good. And then focus in on the last 4 years specifically, and you're talking north of 85%. That's very good. Guy only got released to save money on a rebuilding team tanking for a QB.



You read the article I posted on the last page? Folk has most definitely not been 'pretty damn good' over a 10 year span.
Image
User avatar
The Outsider
 
Posts: 4372
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:02 pm
Location: Gettin' all up in ya
Has thanked: 66 times
Been thanked: 238 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby real bucs fan » Sat Jun 03, 2017 11:07 am

The Outsider wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:It's pretty damn good. And then focus in on the last 4 years specifically, and you're talking north of 85%. That's very good. Guy only got released to save money on a rebuilding team tanking for a QB.



You read the article I posted on the last page? Folk has most definitely not been 'pretty damn good' over a 10 year span.

Kickers don't last 10 years unless they are "pretty damn good". In terms of the raw numbers over that 10 year span, his percentage is hurt by his 3rd season in which he kicked injured, as well he's clearly made a jump over his last 4 years where he's been a >85% guy.
Image
real bucs fan
 
Posts: 8360
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:59 pm
Has thanked: 926 times
Been thanked: 120 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby mdb1958 » Sat Jun 03, 2017 11:52 am

Low trajectory = blocked.


Happened 3 times last year.
mdb1958
 
Posts: 9783
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:11 pm
Has thanked: 158 times
Been thanked: 91 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby DanTurksGhost » Sat Jun 03, 2017 12:02 pm

The Outsider wrote:You read the article I posted on the last page? Folk has most definitely not been 'pretty damn good' over a 10 year span.


It really depends on how you define it. Folk is ranked #33 in NFL history in FG% which ranks him above some pretty big names in the history of kickers. In his career he's right at 86% from inside 50 yards. Over the past four years he's hit 105 out of 122 FG's from all distances, which is also 86%.
User avatar
DanTurksGhost
 
Posts: 1537
Joined: Wed Sep 14, 2016 5:56 pm
Has thanked: 28 times
Been thanked: 54 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby Bootz2004 » Sat Jun 03, 2017 9:49 pm

real bucs fan wrote:
The Outsider wrote:

You read the article I posted on the last page? Folk has most definitely not been 'pretty damn good' over a 10 year span.

Kickers don't last 10 years unless they are "pretty damn good". In terms of the raw numbers over that 10 year span, his percentage is hurt by his 3rd season in which he kicked injured, as well he's clearly made a jump over his last 4 years where he's been a >85% guy.


Wait, so what you're saying is that over the course of his career Nick Folk has improved, right? So why wouldn't we apply the same logic to Aguayo and expect the same type of improvement?
User avatar
Bootz2004
 
Posts: 24607
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:17 pm
Has thanked: 97 times
Been thanked: 523 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby GameTime » Sat Jun 03, 2017 10:16 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:Kickers don't last 10 years unless they are "pretty damn good". In terms of the raw numbers over that 10 year span, his percentage is hurt by his 3rd season in which he kicked injured, as well he's clearly made a jump over his last 4 years where he's been a >85% guy.


Wait, so what you're saying is that over the course of his career Nick Folk has improved, right? So why wouldn't we apply the same logic to Aguayo and expect the same type of improvement?

Pretty sure thats not how logic works.
GameTime
 
Posts: 199
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2016 4:45 pm
Has thanked: 3 times
Been thanked: 2 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby obsolete » Sat Jun 03, 2017 10:17 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:Kickers don't last 10 years unless they are "pretty damn good". In terms of the raw numbers over that 10 year span, his percentage is hurt by his 3rd season in which he kicked injured, as well he's clearly made a jump over his last 4 years where he's been a >85% guy.


Wait, so what you're saying is that over the course of his career Nick Folk has improved, right? So why wouldn't we apply the same logic to Aguayo and expect the same type of improvement?


I dont think anyone is saying that he wont improve. However nobody knows for sure if it'll be greater or even equal to Folk.
The whole point in bringing in competition is to try to force improvement. While Aguayo may turn out to be a hall of fame kicker in the future, it really doesn't help us out much now.
Most people believe we're in the early stages of the window being open, it'd be a shame to waste some of this precious time on an unreliable kicker.

Besides you've always been an advocate of not handing rookies starting jobs (as have i, and yes i know hes not a rookie but his rookie season was bad). Sadly its rare for a team to carry 2 kickers, so unfortunately it means he has to produce or find another team.
Last edited by obsolete on Sat Jun 03, 2017 10:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
obsolete
 
Posts: 78
Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2015 7:37 pm
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 2 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby GameTime » Sat Jun 03, 2017 10:18 pm

DanTurksGhost wrote:Licht sounds like a guy who's preparing us for handing Aguayo the job even if Folk out-kicks him. "You guys only saw the kicks in the games, we're judging him on all those kicks he made in practice, too".

Definitely could see this angle. But i dont see licht keeping a much worse kicker. Or having that extreme of a blind faith. (But he did trade up for and use a 2nd...)
GameTime
 
Posts: 199
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2016 4:45 pm
Has thanked: 3 times
Been thanked: 2 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby Bootz2004 » Sat Jun 03, 2017 10:31 pm

obsolete wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
Wait, so what you're saying is that over the course of his career Nick Folk has improved, right? So why wouldn't we apply the same logic to Aguayo and expect the same type of improvement?


I dont think anyone is saying that he wont improve. However nobody knows for sure if it'll be greater or even equal to Folk.
The whole point in bringing in competition is to try to force improvement. While Aguayo may turn out to be a hall of fame kicker in the future, it really doesn't help us out much now.
Most people believe we're in the early stages of the window being open, it'd be a shame to waste some of this precious time on an unreliable kicker.

Besides you've always been an advocate of not handing rookies starting jobs (as have i, and yes i know hes not a rookie but his rookie season was bad). Sadly its rare for a team to carry 2 kickers, so unfortunately it means he has to produce or find another team.


I am big on not handing rookies starting jobs. But I'm even bigger on DRAFTING AND DEVELOPING players. Seeking instant gratification from draft picks without developing them doesn't help you out. If Noah Spence had done nothing his rookie year should he be put on the chopping block in his 2nd TC? How about VH3? Should he be worried?
User avatar
Bootz2004
 
Posts: 24607
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:17 pm
Has thanked: 97 times
Been thanked: 523 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby MJW » Sat Jun 03, 2017 11:29 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
obsolete wrote:
I dont think anyone is saying that he wont improve. However nobody knows for sure if it'll be greater or even equal to Folk.
The whole point in bringing in competition is to try to force improvement. While Aguayo may turn out to be a hall of fame kicker in the future, it really doesn't help us out much now.
Most people believe we're in the early stages of the window being open, it'd be a shame to waste some of this precious time on an unreliable kicker.

Besides you've always been an advocate of not handing rookies starting jobs (as have i, and yes i know hes not a rookie but his rookie season was bad). Sadly its rare for a team to carry 2 kickers, so unfortunately it means he has to produce or find another team.


I am big on not handing rookies starting jobs. But I'm even bigger on DRAFTING AND DEVELOPING players. Seeking instant gratification from draft picks without developing them doesn't help you out. If Noah Spence had done nothing his rookie year should he be put on the chopping block in his 2nd TC? How about VH3? Should he be worried?


There are three huge differences between these two scenarios.

One, if Spence was struggling, he could be buried as the 4th end whatever as he develops and moves up the depth chart. That's not generally how kicker works. I suggested something unorthodox above, but chances are if Aguayo doesn't win the job, there isn't a spot on the 53 for a 2nd kicker. Nor can he help out in different areas of the game the way Spence still could.

Two, if Spence is forced into action despite struggling, you can scheme around his shortcomings somewhat - blitz the linebackers, or shift the alignment, etc, etc. Not really an option with kickers. You can't make a 42 yard field goal easier with your special teams scheme.

Three, it's pretty darn easy to find a solid kicker off the street who can come in and not stink as the guy. If you choose not to do that, you're making a conscious choice to live and die with your kicker because you CAN upgrade if you want to with a phone call. That's not really the case with position players except at the ass-end of the bench. Not a month after the draft.

Also, if the only reason you're not cutting a guy who is clearly terrible is because of what you spent on him, this term comes to mind:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sunkcost.asp
Image
User avatar
MJW
 
Posts: 8850
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:17 am
Location: Nebraska
Has thanked: 206 times
Been thanked: 386 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby obsolete » Sun Jun 04, 2017 1:30 am

Bootz2004 wrote:
obsolete wrote:
I dont think anyone is saying that he wont improve. However nobody knows for sure if it'll be greater or even equal to Folk.
The whole point in bringing in competition is to try to force improvement. While Aguayo may turn out to be a hall of fame kicker in the future, it really doesn't help us out much now.
Most people believe we're in the early stages of the window being open, it'd be a shame to waste some of this precious time on an unreliable kicker.

Besides you've always been an advocate of not handing rookies starting jobs (as have i, and yes i know hes not a rookie but his rookie season was bad). Sadly its rare for a team to carry 2 kickers, so unfortunately it means he has to produce or find another team.


I am big on not handing rookies starting jobs. But I'm even bigger on DRAFTING AND DEVELOPING players. Seeking instant gratification from draft picks without developing them doesn't help you out. If Noah Spence had done nothing his rookie year should he be put on the chopping block in his 2nd TC? How about VH3? Should he be worried?


This is why I've never been a fan of drafting a kicker. Theres only 1 good outcome out of multiple bad outcomes.

Like MJW said, you cant really bury him on the roster if he doesn't work out right away.

This is why most kickers come to teams as free agents. The impact a bad kicker can have on a team is much more than say a bad TE. What options do you have if you have a bad kicker? Punt? Go for it on 4th? Neither of those options are favorable.

But i agree, in a perfect world it would be nice to be able to keep 2 kickers and let Aguayo develop. This isnt a perfect world though and holding a team back because of 1 guy isn't the thing to do.

If Aguayo came in as an undrafted free agent and had the same year as last year, would you still feel the same about developing him?
obsolete
 
Posts: 78
Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2015 7:37 pm
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 2 times

Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby PrimeMinister » Sun Jun 04, 2017 7:12 pm

MJW wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
I am big on not handing rookies starting jobs. But I'm even bigger on DRAFTING AND DEVELOPING players. Seeking instant gratification from draft picks without developing them doesn't help you out. If Noah Spence had done nothing his rookie year should he be put on the chopping block in his 2nd TC? How about VH3? Should he be worried?


There are three huge differences between these two scenarios.

One, if Spence was struggling, he could be buried as the 4th end whatever as he develops and moves up the depth chart. That's not generally how kicker works. I suggested something unorthodox above, but chances are if Aguayo doesn't win the job, there isn't a spot on the 53 for a 2nd kicker. Nor can he help out in different areas of the game the way Spence still could.

Two, if Spence is forced into action despite struggling, you can scheme around his shortcomings somewhat - blitz the linebackers, or shift the alignment, etc, etc. Not really an option with kickers. You can't make a 42 yard field goal easier with your special teams scheme.

Three, it's pretty darn easy to find a solid kicker off the street who can come in and not stink as the guy. If you choose not to do that, you're making a conscious choice to live and die with your kicker because you CAN upgrade if you want to with a phone call. That's not really the case with position players except at the ass-end of the bench. Not a month after the draft.

Also, if the only reason you're not cutting a guy who is clearly terrible is because of what you spent on him, this term comes to mind:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sunkcost.asp


Damn good post.
PrimeMinister
 
Posts: 8604
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:34 am
Has thanked: 35 times
Been thanked: 227 times

PreviousNext

post

Return to Team Discussions

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: BacksidePursuit, Baidu [Spider], BayAreaBucFan25, Bootz2004, Caradoc, dcbucsfan, Deja Entendu, Google [Bot], Jason Bourne, Naismith, Noles1724, real bucs fan, terrytate, The Outsider and 38 guests