The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby real bucs fan » Tue Aug 08, 2017 5:01 pm

I'll call this response the FSU effect lol
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby NYBF » Tue Aug 08, 2017 8:32 pm

Selmon Rules wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:I would put more stock in an 8 year track record than 1 TC/preseason myself.

So you think they should just cut Aguayo now??? I mean if you put more stock in what Folk has done over the past 8 years, why even bother?? Maybe they should go see if Vanderjact (sorry for the misspelled name, I ain't looking it up) is still available, he has long track record of being a very good kicker....


Funny you mention him...
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby deltbucs » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:36 pm

real bucs fan wrote:I'll call this response the FSU effect lol

Yeah...lot of FSU fans in NY.

Pretty sure no one that's debating with you is an FSU fan.
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby PrimeMinister » Tue Aug 08, 2017 10:35 pm

real bucs fan wrote:I'll call this response the FSU effect lol


And this response is called abandoning an illogical position lol
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby real bucs fan » Tue Aug 08, 2017 11:39 pm

PrimeMinister wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:I'll call this response the FSU effect lol


And this response is called abandoning an illogical position lol

Can you not see the logic in opting to go with the guy who has proven over the last decade to be one of the better kickers in the NFL over a guy with only one year under his belt where he was terrible?

I know it's hard to do, but you really need to remove the asset used to acquire a player from the equation of grading how good a player is.

Regardless, this discussion is fruitless, we both are just hoping to have our kicker be successful..
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby Selmon Rules » Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:36 am

real bucs fan wrote:
PrimeMinister wrote:
And this response is called abandoning an illogical position lol

Can you not see the logic in opting to go with the guy who has proven over the last decade to be one of the better kickers in the NFL over a guy with only one year under his belt where he was terrible?

I know it's hard to do, but you really need to remove the asset used to acquire a player from the equation of grading how good a player is.

Regardless, this discussion is fruitless, we both are just hoping to have our kicker be successful..

I'm not considering his draft position at all in this discussion, it's sunk cost at this point and irrelevant, and yes, we both just want the kicker (whomever it is) to be successful. I just disagree that what Folk has done over the past 8 years makes whatever Aguayo does in camp and preseason irrelevant.

Have no problem just agreeing to disagree at this point....
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby Deuce » Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:37 am

Ran across this nugget in Deadspin's "Why Your Team Sucks" 2017 edition on the Carolina Panthers-

On the lighter side of failure, I don’t have the exact numbers on me but I’m quite sure this is the only team that Roberto Aguayo made a field goal against.
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby PrimeMinister » Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:43 am

real bucs fan wrote:
PrimeMinister wrote:
And this response is called abandoning an illogical position lol

Can you not see the logic in opting to go with the guy who has proven over the last decade to be one of the better kickers in the NFL over a guy with only one year under his belt where he was terrible?

I know it's hard to do, but you really need to remove the asset used to acquire a player from the equation of grading how good a player is.

Regardless, this discussion is fruitless, we both are just hoping to have our kicker be successful..


Who mentioned draft position? I'm pretty sure this discussion has been about ignoring "track record" for kickers and just going with the best kicker RIGHT NOW. Whoever is better in preseason wins. You're the only one looking to the past.

By the way you never responded to the example showing kicker track records not mattering.
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby Doctor » Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:54 am

By this logic guys like Peyton Manning, LT, and Adrian Peterson should be have been able to play as starters for as long as their wanted. You know, because their "track record".
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby PrimeMinister » Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:49 pm

Doctor wrote:By this logic guys like Peyton Manning, LT, and Adrian Peterson should be have been able to play as starters for as long as their wanted. You know, because their "track record".


Track records > ability to produce right now.
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby Bootz2004 » Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:51 pm

Instead of trying to make McCoy the next Sapp we should just sign the real one. That's one hell of a track record.
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby PrimeMinister » Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:54 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:Instead of trying to make McCoy the next Sapp we should just sign the real one. That's one hell of a track record.


How many other teams have a 1st Ballot HOFer on their DL? Imagine if we added Simeon Rice! I know he isn't a HOFer, but hear me out. He has top 10 all time track record and with Sapp, McCoy & Rice's track records we would break sack records.
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby real bucs fan » Wed Aug 09, 2017 1:21 pm

Sapp and Manning both fell off. Did Nick Folk fall off last year? Has he shown any signs of decline? Terrible example.
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby Caradoc » Wed Aug 09, 2017 1:39 pm

Problem with trying to use "track record" is there is an incredibly small sample size to work with. especially with Roberto. You act like if someone is a career 80% kicker, then out of every 10 kicks 8 are made but that's not how it works. One set of 10 might be 100% and then next 10 60%. It takes time to form a useful mean. Flip a coin 20 times and you might think heads turns up 90% of the time, but flip it a hundred times and you see it's 50/50.
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby NYBF » Wed Aug 09, 2017 2:26 pm

NYBF wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:if a kicker has an 8 year track record like Folk does they don't just suddenly fall off a cliff to Berto territory... usually an 8 year track record leads to a 10-15 year track record.


Is a 20 point drop from year 8 to year 9 "falling off a cliff"?

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How about 12?

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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby real bucs fan » Wed Aug 09, 2017 5:58 pm

NYBF wrote:
NYBF wrote:
Is a 20 point drop from year 8 to year 9 "falling off a cliff"?

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How about 12?

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Both guys missed 2 XPs. Not really a strong argument.
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby NYBF » Wed Aug 09, 2017 7:09 pm

real bucs fan wrote:
NYBF wrote:

Both guys missed 2 XPs. Not really a strong argument.


So you don't care about fg%?
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby PrimeMinister » Wed Aug 09, 2017 10:44 pm

Pretty sure FG% was the track record we were keeping, right?
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby real bucs fan » Wed Aug 09, 2017 10:56 pm

Huh? I'm not following. Folks FG% was up 6% last year at 87% which was the 3rd highest mark of his career. How the hell is that falling off a clif?
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby terrytate » Thu Aug 10, 2017 4:17 am

real bucs fan wrote:
NYBF wrote:

Both guys missed 2 XPs. Not really a strong argument.



Most of those were from the 2 yard line though, up until the change that didn't mean much.
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby NYBF » Thu Aug 10, 2017 8:22 am

real bucs fan wrote:Huh? I'm not following. Folks FG% was up 6% last year at 87% which was the 3rd highest mark of his career. How the hell is that falling off a clif?


You said kickers with 8 year track records don't fall off a cliff, and go on to 10-15 year track records. I asked what percentage decline from year 8 to year 9 is "falling off a cliff".
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby NYBF » Thu Aug 10, 2017 8:23 am

PrimeMinister wrote:Pretty sure FG% was the track record we were keeping, right?


Depends. Does it help or hinder the argument?
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby Doctor » Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:00 am

See, that's where the TC battle comes into play....

We're seeing exactly where Folk and the cliff are RIGHT NOW, in the present. And we're also doing that with another kicker next to him to compare. If he still is what his "track record" shows then he'll have no problem putting up FG during TC and Preseason. But if he's not....

Why are you so worried about a camp battle? If he's up to snuff it will show. Are you worried it won't show? Are you worried that someone else will show that they have improved and are CURRENTLY kicking better than Folk?
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby real bucs fan » Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:14 am

Doctor wrote:See, that's where the TC battle comes into play....

We're seeing exactly where Folk and the cliff are RIGHT NOW, in the present. And we're also doing that with another kicker next to him to compare. If he still is what his "track record" shows then he'll have no problem putting up FG during TC and Preseason. But if he's not....

Why are you so worried about a camp battle? If he's up to snuff it will show. Are you worried it won't show? Are you worried that someone else will show that they have improved and are CURRENTLY kicking better than Folk?

I'm definitely not worried about Aguayo being a stud kicker for us and winning the job outright. I'm worried about the battle being close, opting to go with Aguayo considering the investment we've made in him, and then him having another disastrous year that costs us some Ws and the playoffs.

The better question here is who do you take if the battle is neck and neck? I'd take Folk because of his track record, ya.
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby real bucs fan » Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:15 am

NYBF wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:Huh? I'm not following. Folks FG% was up 6% last year at 87% which was the 3rd highest mark of his career. How the hell is that falling off a clif?


You said kickers with 8 year track records don't fall off a cliff, and go on to 10-15 year track records. I asked what percentage decline from year 8 to year 9 is "falling off a cliff".

I really have no freaking clue what you're talking about or what point you're trying to make.
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby Buc2 » Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:17 am

real bucs fan wrote:
NYBF wrote:
You said kickers with 8 year track records don't fall off a cliff, and go on to 10-15 year track records. I asked what percentage decline from year 8 to year 9 is "falling off a cliff".

I really have no freaking clue what you're talking about or what point you're trying to make.

I'm not sure either. That and the OP with the stats read like an mdb post.
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby real bucs fan » Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:21 am

Buc2 wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:I really have no freaking clue what you're talking about or what point you're trying to make.

I'm not sure either. That and the OP with the stats read like an mdb post.

The image appears to show XPs to me, but apparently I'm moving the goalposts to fit my argument...
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby Buc2 » Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:32 am

real bucs fan wrote:
Buc2 wrote:I'm not sure either. That and the OP with the stats read like an mdb post.

The image appears to show XPs to me, but apparently I'm moving the goalposts to fit my argument...

The 1st column on the left shows FG %.
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby real bucs fan » Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:39 am

Oh I get it. He's done some digging and found some kickers who've "fallen off a cliff". What a waste of time. And not sure why he needed to be so coy about it, simply say "here are some kickers who suffered statistical dropoffs"
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Re: The Kicker Battle: Folk v Aguayo

Postby Buc2 » Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:54 am

real bucs fan wrote:Oh I get it. He's done some digging and found some kickers who've "fallen off a cliff". What a waste of time. And not sure why he needed to be so coy about it, simply say "here are some kickers who suffered statistical dropoffs"

It's the cute thing to do around here to make it look like you know so much more than the person you're arguing with. I'm sure I've been guilty of it myself on occasion. But, yeah... I'd have just said that and then posted those stats to show, graphically, what I was saying.
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