Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby pewterpirates » Tue Mar 21, 2017 12:36 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
pewterpirates wrote:
I'm no expert kicking coach or anything....but considering Aguayo has never done anything from 50+, wouldn't that be an automatic indicator he doesn't have the leg strength necessary to make those kicks?

I'd be curious to watch him for an entire day at practice. I wonder what percentage he makes in practice from 50+?


If he's missing short of the goal post then yes. But if he's missing wide left or right then it's not an issue of strength. It's an issue of accuracy.


That's a very simplistic answer. What if he's missing wide left or right on long kicks b/c his leg isn't strong enough to just swing/kick like normal? He's having to overcompensate due to lack of leg strength, which means his mechanics are all off.

I'm not saying that's what it is. I just don't think it's only an issue of accuracy. He was the most accurate kicker in NCAAF history....yet he's never been a guy to make long kicks. It's gotta be something with leg strength or mechanics on longer kicks.
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby DreadNaught » Tue Mar 21, 2017 12:52 pm

I don't think it's a leg strength issue w/ Aguayo. He seems to have no issue booming the ball into the back of the endzone on kickoffs seemingly at-will.

I've watched him in practice during TC last season and we all have witnessed the game. Aguayo definitely kicks the ball w/ a different trajectory on FGs, and is way more controlled in his approach just prior to the point his foot touches the ball.

To use a golf analogy, he kicks-off like he's using a Driver/1W and kicks FGs like he's using a PW from just off the green.

I'm sure that is similar to every other kicker, but it seems more pronounced w/ Aguayo. But it's not a leg strength issue imo.
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby Bootz2004 » Tue Mar 21, 2017 1:17 pm

pewterpirates wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
If he's missing short of the goal post then yes. But if he's missing wide left or right then it's not an issue of strength. It's an issue of accuracy.


That's a very simplistic answer. What if he's missing wide left or right on long kicks b/c his leg isn't strong enough to just swing/kick like normal? He's having to overcompensate due to lack of leg strength, which means his mechanics are all off.

I'm not saying that's what it is. I just don't think it's only an issue of accuracy. He was the most accurate kicker in NCAAF history....yet he's never been a guy to make long kicks. It's gotta be something with leg strength or mechanics on longer kicks.


Probably more mechanical than it is strength. His kickoffs get plenty of lift and get deep. Remember Brindza? He has all the leg strength in the world. He just doesn't know where it's going. While I don't think Aguayo has a leg that big I think he has enough leg strength to make most kicks in the NFL. His mechanics differ a lot from kick to kick so it's easy to see where his issues are stemming from.
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby Kress » Tue Mar 21, 2017 2:28 pm

Sounds like my golf game. I can hit it, but where it goes is a whole other issue.
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby PrimeMinister » Tue Mar 21, 2017 3:57 pm

pewterpirates wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
If he's missing short of the goal post then yes. But if he's missing wide left or right then it's not an issue of strength. It's an issue of accuracy.


That's a very simplistic answer. What if he's missing wide left or right on long kicks b/c his leg isn't strong enough to just swing/kick like normal? He's having to overcompensate due to lack of leg strength, which means his mechanics are all off.

I'm not saying that's what it is. I just don't think it's only an issue of accuracy. He was the most accurate kicker in NCAAF history....yet he's never been a guy to make long kicks. It's gotta be something with leg strength or mechanics on longer kicks.


I hate how this statistic is used to justify his selection. Aguyao was drastically worse each year. Just because he was accurate AF 3 years ago doesn't mean he is an accurate kicker now. This is now 4 straight season of his accuracy dropping 6%+. This is who Aguyao is: an inaccurate kicker beyond 40 yards. Possibly the worst kicker in the league beyond 40.
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby Bootz2004 » Tue Mar 21, 2017 4:15 pm

PrimeMinister wrote:
pewterpirates wrote:
That's a very simplistic answer. What if he's missing wide left or right on long kicks b/c his leg isn't strong enough to just swing/kick like normal? He's having to overcompensate due to lack of leg strength, which means his mechanics are all off.

I'm not saying that's what it is. I just don't think it's only an issue of accuracy. He was the most accurate kicker in NCAAF history....yet he's never been a guy to make long kicks. It's gotta be something with leg strength or mechanics on longer kicks.


I hate how this statistic is used to justify his selection. Aguyao was drastically worse each year. Just because he was accurate AF 3 years ago doesn't mean he is an accurate kicker now. This is now 4 straight season of his accuracy dropping 6%+. This is who Aguyao is: an inaccurate kicker beyond 40 yards. Possibly the worst kicker in the league beyond 40.


Yep. 4-11 from 40+. Very bad. Will he improve? Time will tell.

It wasn't all bad with him though. He was pretty automatic inside of 40, which a lot of teams couldn't say. We didn't have those missed PAT problems.
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby Naismith » Tue Mar 21, 2017 6:12 pm

Even though he hit 90% less than 40 and 86.7% between 30-39, both of those are below league average since that's pretty much automatic for NFL'ers. He was 16th in extra point percentage.
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby Bootz2004 » Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:07 pm

Naismith wrote:Even though he hit 90% less than 40 and 86.7% between 30-39, both of those are below league average since that's pretty much automatic for NFL'ers. He was 16th in extra point percentage.


You're talking about 2 missed kicks from inside of 40 and 2 missed PATs. I think where kickers are concerned looking exclusively at percentages is misleading. Aguayo was better at PATs than Folk but they both missed 2 kicks. Josh Brown had a better percentage than Wil Lutz but Brown went 9-9 while Lutz was 49-51. Volume absolutely matters where kickers are involved.
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby Caradoc » Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:28 am

I don't have the problem with the theory of the Aguayo pick that people seem to have. My problem is with the execution of it. If you really have a "once in a generation" talent there, which is what the team thought they saw, then there is absolutely nothing wrong with spending what we did to acquire it. Keyboard warriors can pontificate about "wasted picks" and "value" all they want or "inside the 40 vs longer" but that is irrelevant and the draft isn't a science. If you have a chance at a special talent you take it. If he was automatic inside 40 and average after, he would still be a good pick. Nobody would be batting an eye at the Redskins right now if RG3 was playing like John Elway, and Buffalo would be quite happy with Sammy if he was Megatron 2.0. I was one of the few against the Revis trade, but if he was still Revis Island playing in Tampa I'd have a hard time convincing anyone I was right.

The real problem with the Aguayo pick is that he isn't the talent we envisioned. And more, it really isn't surprising considering his college production. He had a crazy hot streak to start off, but was regressing to the mean afterward. Why this didn't set off huge red flags is anyone's guess. I think they just overthought themselves.

That said, the hate for Aguayo is, like most fan hate, overstated. While he may never be the rare talent the team hoped for, he can still be a good pro and part of this team going forward. People like to throw out his overall percentage from last year as a big negative, but there are 2 problems with that. First, the sample size is so small that percentage is meaningless here. Second, given the streaky nature of the game, it is hard to predict some stats. In the first half of the season our D had almost no turnovers. Then we had a bunch. In a reversal of his college production, Aguayo started off with a horrific slump, but got better as the season went on. Apply the "Aguayo logic" to our D and you'd think our D sucks and will be more like the September defense rather than thinking they showed improvement toward their potential .
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby deltbucs » Wed Mar 22, 2017 7:38 am

MJW wrote:
ImAWalkingCorpse wrote:He attempted 10 FG's of 40 yards or longer his 2015 season. He managed to hit 50% on those. He was 4-11 for the Buccaneers from that distance and was only allowed to try from 50 yards plus once. The coaching staff realized VERY early, probably even after the first off season work out he didn't have a strong leg. So, to answer your question, no he doesn't have the leg strength to hit over 40 yards consistently, and over 50? Forget it. He sucked from the start and hopefully he is released at the end of TC.


The myth of Aguayo's strong leg was a funny one. He wasn't good or productive from 50+ in college, his career long was a pedestrian 53, and his kickoffs sucked.

I guess every decade we're going to make a Booker/Dexter pick.

You don't know what you're talking about, again. His kickoff were very good at FSU. He put the ball just short of the endzone most of the time like he was asked to. He also hit a 58 yarder during a spring game. If you want to say he's inaccurate, fine, but you're just wrong about his leg not being strong enough and his kickoffs being an issue at FSU.
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby MJW » Wed Mar 22, 2017 8:04 am

deltbucs wrote:
MJW wrote:
The myth of Aguayo's strong leg was a funny one. He wasn't good or productive from 50+ in college, his career long was a pedestrian 53, and his kickoffs sucked.

I guess every decade we're going to make a Booker/Dexter pick.

You don't know what you're talking about, again. His kickoff were very good at FSU. He put the ball just short of the endzone most of the time like he was asked to. He also hit a 58 yarder during a spring game. If you want to say he's inaccurate, fine, but you're just wrong about his leg not being strong enough and his kickoffs being an issue at FSU.


I didn't say his kickoffs weren't long enough. I said they sucked. According to PFT, he led the nation in kickoffs out of bounds during his time at FSU. Not a great thing when kicking off. I forgive the mistake because the context made it unclear.
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby MJW » Wed Mar 22, 2017 8:14 am

Caradoc wrote:I don't have the problem with the theory of the Aguayo pick that people seem to have. My problem is with the execution of it. If you really have a "once in a generation" talent there, which is what the team thought they saw, then there is absolutely nothing wrong with spending what we did to acquire it. Keyboard warriors can pontificate about "wasted picks" and "value" all they want or "inside the 40 vs longer" but that is irrelevant and the draft isn't a science. If you have a chance at a special talent you take it. If he was automatic inside 40 and average after, he would still be a good pick. Nobody would be batting an eye at the Redskins right now if RG3 was playing like John Elway, and Buffalo would be quite happy with Sammy if he was Megatron 2.0. I was one of the few against the Revis trade, but if he was still Revis Island playing in Tampa I'd have a hard time convincing anyone I was right.


Here's my biggest problem with what you're saying here: the difference between a "generational talent" and a pretty good kicker is marginal. It has to do with deviation. There simple is not much deviation between an average NFL kicker and a great one. If you don't HAVE an average NFL kicker, you have a problem, because there can be a huge deviation between an average NFL kicker and a horrible one.

But if you give me a superstar kicker, I can give you one within 2 percentage points in accuracy nobody gives a crap about, who has probably been released by at least one team and likely entered the league undrafted.

For Aguayo to justify his cost, he'd not only have to be good. He'd not only have to be great. He'd have to be absolutely the best kicker in football, for a long time. Anything less than that and it's impossible to see it as a good payoff at the price. Not in a league where Matt Bryant is released by 5 teams, you know?
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby Naismith » Wed Mar 22, 2017 8:18 am

MJW wrote:Here's my biggest problem with what you're saying here: the difference between a "generational talent" and a pretty good kicker is marginal. It has to do with deviation. There simple is not much deviation between an average NFL kicker and a great one. If you don't HAVE an average NFL kicker, you have a problem, because there can be a huge deviation between an average NFL kicker and a horrible one.

But if you give me a superstar kicker, I can give you one within 2 percentage points in accuracy nobody gives a crap about, who has probably been released by at least one team and likely entered the league undrafted.

For Aguayo to justify his cost, he'd not only have to be good. He'd not only have to be great. He'd have to be absolutely the best kicker in football, for a long time. Anything less than that and it's impossible to see it as a good payoff at the price. Not in a league where Matt Bryant is released by 5 teams, you know?


I'm not even sure what a "generational talent" as a kicker would be. Has there just never been one?
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby Doctor » Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:45 am

MJW wrote:
Caradoc wrote:I don't have the problem with the theory of the Aguayo pick that people seem to have. My problem is with the execution of it. If you really have a "once in a generation" talent there, which is what the team thought they saw, then there is absolutely nothing wrong with spending what we did to acquire it. Keyboard warriors can pontificate about "wasted picks" and "value" all they want or "inside the 40 vs longer" but that is irrelevant and the draft isn't a science. If you have a chance at a special talent you take it. If he was automatic inside 40 and average after, he would still be a good pick. Nobody would be batting an eye at the Redskins right now if RG3 was playing like John Elway, and Buffalo would be quite happy with Sammy if he was Megatron 2.0. I was one of the few against the Revis trade, but if he was still Revis Island playing in Tampa I'd have a hard time convincing anyone I was right.


Here's my biggest problem with what you're saying here: the difference between a "generational talent" and a pretty good kicker is marginal. It has to do with deviation. There simple is not much deviation between an average NFL kicker and a great one. If you don't HAVE an average NFL kicker, you have a problem, because there can be a huge deviation between an average NFL kicker and a horrible one.

But if you give me a superstar kicker, I can give you one within 2 percentage points in accuracy nobody gives a crap about, who has probably been released by at least one team and likely entered the league undrafted.

For Aguayo to justify his cost, he'd not only have to be good. He'd not only have to be great. He'd have to be absolutely the best kicker in football, for a long time. Anything less than that and it's impossible to see it as a good payoff at the price. Not in a league where Matt Bryant is released by 5 teams, you know?

See, this right here is a (wo)man that doesn't respect kickers.
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby PrimeMinister » Wed Mar 22, 2017 11:01 am

Caradoc wrote:I don't have the problem with the theory of the Aguayo pick that people seem to have. My problem is with the execution of it. If you really have a "once in a generation" talent there, which is what the team thought they saw, then there is absolutely nothing wrong with spending what we did to acquire it. Keyboard warriors can pontificate about "wasted picks" and "value" all they want or "inside the 40 vs longer" but that is irrelevant and the draft isn't a science. If you have a chance at a special talent you take it. If he was automatic inside 40 and average after, he would still be a good pick. Nobody would be batting an eye at the Redskins right now if RG3 was playing like John Elway, and Buffalo would be quite happy with Sammy if he was Megatron 2.0. I was one of the few against the Revis trade, but if he was still Revis Island playing in Tampa I'd have a hard time convincing anyone I was right.

The real problem with the Aguayo pick is that he isn't the talent we envisioned. And more, it really isn't surprising considering his college production. He had a crazy hot streak to start off, but was regressing to the mean afterward. Why this didn't set off huge red flags is anyone's guess. I think they just overthought themselves.

That said, the hate for Aguayo is, like most fan hate, overstated. While he may never be the rare talent the team hoped for, he can still be a good pro and part of this team going forward. People like to throw out his overall percentage from last year as a big negative, but there are 2 problems with that. First, the sample size is so small that percentage is meaningless here. Second, given the streaky nature of the game, it is hard to predict some stats. In the first half of the season our D had almost no turnovers. Then we had a bunch. In a reversal of his college production, Aguayo started off with a horrific slump, but got better as the season went on. Apply the "Aguayo logic" to our D and you'd think our D sucks and will be more like the September defense rather than thinking they showed improvement toward their potential .


You can't see that he got progressively worse at FSU, is unreliable beyond 40 yards AND think "he might be a generational talent". I would love for Roberto to go 60/60 on XP and 25/25 on FG next year, but this pick was wrong from the beginning.
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby Buc You » Wed Mar 22, 2017 11:09 am

Naismith wrote:I'm not even sure what a "generational talent" as a kicker would be. Has there just never been one?

Janikowski was the last one I remember being touted like that and his ridiculous leg strength seemed to justify it. People thought he was going to hit 60+ yarders with same consistency as 30 yarders. I think that would be the qualification of a "generational talent" as a kicker, the ability to greatly extend your team's scoring chances/range past general standards.
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby Buc2 » Wed Mar 22, 2017 11:59 am

This horse has been beaten to ****ing death already. Yes, it was a shitty, stupid, ignorant, dumbass, dipshit, brainless move to draft a kicker in the 2nd round. I'm not sure how many more ways this can be said that hasn't already been said. Competition has been brought in so there's not much else that can be done at this point.
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby BucaRican » Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:51 pm

Folk on Bucs kicker competition: I have a family to feed


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000794492/article/folk-on-bucs-kicker-competition-i-have-a-family-to-feed


There's a fascinating (to me, anyway) subplot simmering in Tampa right now and it centers on a position not known
for reality-TV level drama.

Yep, we're talkin' kicker stuff. More specifically, the upcoming summer competition between draft pariah Roberto Aguayo
and veteran Nick Folk, signed by the Buccaneers last week.

You probably know the background here, but a quick refresher: The Bucs traded up to pick Aguayo in the second round of the
2016 draft, an audacious move that only makes sense if Aguayo becomes a Pro Bowl-level kicker. He was pretty much the opposite
of that as a rookie, prompting the team to swallow its pride and bring in another option ahead of Year 2.

Folk has enjoyed a very solid career, fresh off a seven-year run with the Jets where he became the most accurate kicker in franchise history.
In a radio spot this week, Folk made it clear he (wait for it) didn't come here to make friends.

"I can hopefully get (Aguayo) going a little bit in the NFL world," Folk told WDAE-AM, via JoeBucsFan.com. "I had a great guy to learn from in
Martin (Gramatica) my rookie year. I kind of picked things off of him just sitting and watching. I mean, hopefully, I can show (Aguayo) a few
things, not too many, because I have a family to feed."

YES. GAUNTLET THROWN DOWN. Props to Folk, who isn't hiding his ambition here: He is a place-kicking terminator brought here to end Aguayo's
Bucs career before it ever really started.

All we need now is for Robbie to clap back at a charity golf event or something and we ... are ... flying.



Man's gotta EAT not shaping up to good for Roberto.
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby Super K » Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:53 pm

I've gotta say, I LOVE Folk's attitude regarding the situation..


"LET THEM FIGHT"
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby PrimeMinister » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:04 pm

DreadNaught wrote:Some quick background on Nick Folk...

Aguayo is fucked...
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby Buc You » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:13 pm

BucaRican wrote:
Folk on Bucs kicker competition: I have a family to feed


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000794492/article/folk-on-bucs-kicker-competition-i-have-a-family-to-feed


There's a fascinating (to me, anyway) subplot simmering in Tampa right now and it centers on a position not known
for reality-TV level drama.

Yep, we're talkin' kicker stuff. More specifically, the upcoming summer competition between draft pariah Roberto Aguayo
and veteran Nick Folk, signed by the Buccaneers last week.

You probably know the background here, but a quick refresher: The Bucs traded up to pick Aguayo in the second round of the
2016 draft, an audacious move that only makes sense if Aguayo becomes a Pro Bowl-level kicker. He was pretty much the opposite
of that as a rookie, prompting the team to swallow its pride and bring in another option ahead of Year 2.

Folk has enjoyed a very solid career, fresh off a seven-year run with the Jets where he became the most accurate kicker in franchise history.
In a radio spot this week, Folk made it clear he (wait for it) didn't come here to make friends.

"I can hopefully get (Aguayo) going a little bit in the NFL world," Folk told WDAE-AM, via JoeBucsFan.com. "I had a great guy to learn from in
Martin (Gramatica) my rookie year. I kind of picked things off of him just sitting and watching. I mean, hopefully, I can show (Aguayo) a few
things, not too many, because I have a family to feed."

YES. GAUNTLET THROWN DOWN. Props to Folk, who isn't hiding his ambition here: He is a place-kicking terminator brought here to end Aguayo's
Bucs career before it ever really started.

All we need now is for Robbie to clap back at a charity golf event or something and we ... are ... flying.



Man's gotta EAT not shaping up to good for Roberto.

What overly-dramatic tween wrote that article?
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby NYBF » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:27 pm

Buc You wrote:

What overly-dramatic tween wrote that article?


Seriously. What a load of ****. And to get excited about it, too? :roll:
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby BucaRican » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:56 pm

NYBF wrote:
Buc You wrote:What overly-dramatic tween wrote that article?


Seriously. What a load of ****. And to get excited about it, too? :roll:


Don't be mad at a man that genuinely needed something to write about. How is it a load of stars?
He is a place-kicking terminator brought here to end Aguayo's
Bucs career before it ever really started.
Just remember that line.
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby Selmon Rules » Wed Mar 22, 2017 3:12 pm

Buc2 wrote:This horse has been beaten to ****ing death already. Yes, it was a shitty, stupid, ignorant, dumbass, dipshit, brainless move to draft a kicker in the 2nd round. I'm not sure how many more ways this can be said that hasn't already been said. Competition has been brought in so there's not much else that can be done at this point.

Not going to argue the evaluation of him but if they thought they were getting a "generational kicker" (so far it's not looking good) it wasn't as stupid of a move as everyone is making it out to be. In hindsight it seems like a waste of a draft pick, actually 2 picks, but everyone always says if you see your guy, and they obviously thought he was "the guy", you go get him....

Hasn't worked out so far and may never work out much like many other players teams have traded up to get....
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby PrimeMinister » Wed Mar 22, 2017 4:20 pm

Selmon Rules wrote:
Buc2 wrote:This horse has been beaten to ****ing death already. Yes, it was a shitty, stupid, ignorant, dumbass, dipshit, brainless move to draft a kicker in the 2nd round. I'm not sure how many more ways this can be said that hasn't already been said. Competition has been brought in so there's not much else that can be done at this point.

Not going to argue the evaluation of him but if they thought they were getting a "generational kicker" (so far it's not looking good) it wasn't as stupid of a move as everyone is making it out to be. In hindsight it seems like a waste of a draft pick, actually 2 picks, but everyone always says if you see your guy, and they obviously thought he was "the guy", you go get him....

Hasn't worked out so far and may never work out much like many other players teams have traded up to get....


You would have a point IF there was any reason to believe he was a generational talent coming out of college.
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby Naismith » Wed Mar 22, 2017 5:07 pm

Buc You wrote:
Naismith wrote:I'm not even sure what a "generational talent" as a kicker would be. Has there just never been one?

Janikowski was the last one I remember being touted like that and his ridiculous leg strength seemed to justify it. People thought he was going to hit 60+ yarders with same consistency as 30 yarders. I think that would be the qualification of a "generational talent" as a kicker, the ability to greatly extend your team's scoring chances/range past general standards.


Yeah, I mean that has been a "generational talent" in the NFL, not just projected out of college.
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby Caradoc » Wed Mar 22, 2017 5:17 pm

MJW wrote:
Caradoc wrote:I don't have the problem with the theory of the Aguayo pick that people seem to have. My problem is with the execution of it. If you really have a "once in a generation" talent there, which is what the team thought they saw, then there is absolutely nothing wrong with spending what we did to acquire it. Keyboard warriors can pontificate about "wasted picks" and "value" all they want or "inside the 40 vs longer" but that is irrelevant and the draft isn't a science. If you have a chance at a special talent you take it. If he was automatic inside 40 and average after, he would still be a good pick. Nobody would be batting an eye at the Redskins right now if RG3 was playing like John Elway, and Buffalo would be quite happy with Sammy if he was Megatron 2.0. I was one of the few against the Revis trade, but if he was still Revis Island playing in Tampa I'd have a hard time convincing anyone I was right.


Here's my biggest problem with what you're saying here: the difference between a "generational talent" and a pretty good kicker is marginal. It has to do with deviation. There simple is not much deviation between an average NFL kicker and a great one. If you don't HAVE an average NFL kicker, you have a problem, because there can be a huge deviation between an average NFL kicker and a horrible one.

But if you give me a superstar kicker, I can give you one within 2 percentage points in accuracy nobody gives a crap about, who has probably been released by at least one team and likely entered the league undrafted.

For Aguayo to justify his cost, he'd not only have to be good. He'd not only have to be great. He'd have to be absolutely the best kicker in football, for a long time. Anything less than that and it's impossible to see it as a good payoff at the price. Not in a league where Matt Bryant is released by 5 teams, you know?



Stop with the percentages. All kicks are not created equal. A great kicker doesn't just make a high percent, he makes the important kicks when they count A good kicker doesn't always do that, but their overall percentages are comparable. And again, "waste of resources" is a myth. The draft isn't a science. You get a guy who can make those clutch kicks regularly, he's worth a second. In a game where 50% or more of picks in that round have no real impact on their teams you can't say "it isn't worth it" to get one who does.
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby Caradoc » Wed Mar 22, 2017 5:19 pm

PrimeMinister wrote:
Caradoc wrote:I don't have the problem with the theory of the Aguayo pick that people seem to have. My problem is with the execution of it. If you really have a "once in a generation" talent there, which is what the team thought they saw, then there is absolutely nothing wrong with spending what we did to acquire it. Keyboard warriors can pontificate about "wasted picks" and "value" all they want or "inside the 40 vs longer" but that is irrelevant and the draft isn't a science. If you have a chance at a special talent you take it. If he was automatic inside 40 and average after, he would still be a good pick. Nobody would be batting an eye at the Redskins right now if RG3 was playing like John Elway, and Buffalo would be quite happy with Sammy if he was Megatron 2.0. I was one of the few against the Revis trade, but if he was still Revis Island playing in Tampa I'd have a hard time convincing anyone I was right.

The real problem with the Aguayo pick is that he isn't the talent we envisioned. And more, it really isn't surprising considering his college production. He had a crazy hot streak to start off, but was regressing to the mean afterward. Why this didn't set off huge red flags is anyone's guess. I think they just overthought themselves.

That said, the hate for Aguayo is, like most fan hate, overstated. While he may never be the rare talent the team hoped for, he can still be a good pro and part of this team going forward. People like to throw out his overall percentage from last year as a big negative, but there are 2 problems with that. First, the sample size is so small that percentage is meaningless here. Second, given the streaky nature of the game, it is hard to predict some stats. In the first half of the season our D had almost no turnovers. Then we had a bunch. In a reversal of his college production, Aguayo started off with a horrific slump, but got better as the season went on. Apply the "Aguayo logic" to our D and you'd think our D sucks and will be more like the September defense rather than thinking they showed improvement toward their potential .


You can't see that he got progressively worse at FSU, is unreliable beyond 40 yards AND think "he might be a generational talent". I would love for Roberto to go 60/60 on XP and 25/25 on FG next year, but this pick was wrong from the beginning.



Reading comprehension isn't your strong suit, is it?
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby Selmon Rules » Wed Mar 22, 2017 6:56 pm

PrimeMinister wrote:
Selmon Rules wrote:Not going to argue the evaluation of him but if they thought they were getting a "generational kicker" (so far it's not looking good) it wasn't as stupid of a move as everyone is making it out to be. In hindsight it seems like a waste of a draft pick, actually 2 picks, but everyone always says if you see your guy, and they obviously thought he was "the guy", you go get him....

Hasn't worked out so far and may never work out much like many other players teams have traded up to get....


You would have a point IF there was any reason to believe he was a generational talent coming out of college.

I'm just saying they thought he was special and "their guy" or they likely would not have drafted him where they did. What I think about his ability, or lack thereof, is kind of irrelevant at this point.

All signs point to their evaluation of him were off also....
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Re: Buccaneers signing Nick Folk

Postby MJW » Wed Mar 22, 2017 11:22 pm

Caradoc wrote:
MJW wrote:
Here's my biggest problem with what you're saying here: the difference between a "generational talent" and a pretty good kicker is marginal. It has to do with deviation. There simple is not much deviation between an average NFL kicker and a great one. If you don't HAVE an average NFL kicker, you have a problem, because there can be a huge deviation between an average NFL kicker and a horrible one.

But if you give me a superstar kicker, I can give you one within 2 percentage points in accuracy nobody gives a crap about, who has probably been released by at least one team and likely entered the league undrafted.

For Aguayo to justify his cost, he'd not only have to be good. He'd not only have to be great. He'd have to be absolutely the best kicker in football, for a long time. Anything less than that and it's impossible to see it as a good payoff at the price. Not in a league where Matt Bryant is released by 5 teams, you know?



Stop with the percentages. All kicks are not created equal. A great kicker doesn't just make a high percent, he makes the important kicks when they count A good kicker doesn't always do that, but their overall percentages are comparable. And again, "waste of resources" is a myth. The draft isn't a science. You get a guy who can make those clutch kicks regularly, he's worth a second. In a game where 50% or more of picks in that round have no real impact on their teams you can't say "it isn't worth it" to get one who does.


Which leads us to our next big issues -

One, it's basically impossible to predict which kickers CAN hit the "big kicks" for you. It's a fun thing to talk about, but there's a reason Adam Vinatieri - the "clutchest" kicker in NFL history - was an UFA who had to play in NFL Europe before getting a shot. Did the league not know he would be "clutch?" By the same token, my guy Alex Henery hit several incredible, game-winning, clutch kicks at Nebraska, including a 57 yarder to beat hated Colorado. He went in the high 4th round in 2011. He's out of the league now. Couldn't hit the "big" kicks OR the "regular" kicks in the NFL, despite being straight money in college.

In which lies the issue - based upon production measured against draft pick, there's basically no correlation with kickers. If you take the names of all reasonably talented kickers in any draft class, put them in a hat, and pull one out, you're not any less likely to find a good one than if you use a 2nd round pick on him. The list of most accurate kickers ever is a list of 6th round picks, UFAs, and dudes who were cut by 5 teams before catching on. It is true that there are hits and misses at every position, even in the early rounds, but no other position can be characterized this way.

As per, "waste of resources," let me put it to you like this: If we'd drafted Vonn Bell with that pick, what would the burden have been for him to justify it? Late 2nd rounder? I would say that most of us would have been happy if he'd developed into a solid/above-average starting safety for us. He didn't need to become Ronnie Lott. Had he become, say, Tony Jefferson, we'd have been thrilled.

Contrast that with what Aguayo needs to become, as a kicker, to justify that pick. That's what's meant by "a poor allocation of resources." If you have two potential commodities to invest in, and one has to perform slightly above average to justify your expenses, and the other has to perform through the moon for you to break even, guess which one the smart investor goes with?

This was a dumb, arrogant, indefensible pick.
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