Here's my biggest problem with what you're saying here: the difference between a "generational talent" and a pretty good kicker is marginal. It has to do with deviation. There simple is not much deviation between an average NFL kicker and a great one. If you don't HAVE an average NFL kicker, you have a problem, because there can be a huge deviation between an average NFL kicker and a horrible one.
But if you give me a superstar kicker, I can give you one within 2 percentage points in accuracy nobody gives a crap about, who has probably been released by at least one team and likely entered the league undrafted.
For Aguayo to justify his cost, he'd not only have to be good. He'd not only have to be great. He'd have to be absolutely the best kicker in football, for a long time. Anything less than that and it's impossible to see it as a good payoff at the price. Not in a league where Matt Bryant is released by 5 teams, you know?
Stop with the percentages. All kicks are not created equal. A great kicker doesn't just make a high percent, he makes the important kicks when they count A good kicker doesn't always do that, but their overall percentages are comparable. And again, "waste of resources" is a myth. The draft isn't a science. You get a guy who can make those clutch kicks regularly, he's worth a second. In a game where 50% or more of picks in that round have no real impact on their teams you can't say "it isn't worth it" to get one who does.
Which leads us to our next big issues -
One, it's basically impossible to predict which kickers CAN hit the "big kicks" for you. It's a fun thing to talk about, but there's a reason Adam Vinatieri - the "clutchest" kicker in NFL history - was an UFA who had to play in NFL Europe before getting a shot. Did the league not know he would be "clutch?" By the same token, my guy Alex Henery hit several incredible, game-winning, clutch kicks at Nebraska, including a 57 yarder to beat hated Colorado. He went in the high 4th round in 2011. He's out of the league now. Couldn't hit the "big" kicks OR the "regular" kicks in the NFL, despite being straight money in college.
In which lies the issue - based upon production measured against draft pick, there's basically no correlation with kickers. If you take the names of all reasonably talented kickers in any draft class, put them in a hat, and pull one out, you're not any less likely to find a good one than if you use a 2nd round pick on him. The list of most accurate kickers ever is a list of 6th round picks, UFAs, and dudes who were cut by 5 teams before catching on. It is true that there are hits and misses at every position, even in the early rounds, but no other position can be characterized this way.
As per, "waste of resources," let me put it to you like this: If we'd drafted Vonn Bell with that pick, what would the burden have been for him to justify it? Late 2nd rounder? I would say that most of us would have been happy if he'd developed into a solid/above-average starting safety for us. He didn't need to become Ronnie Lott. Had he become, say, Tony Jefferson, we'd have been thrilled.
Contrast that with what Aguayo needs to become, as a kicker, to justify that pick. That's what's meant by "a poor allocation of resources." If you have two potential commodities to invest in, and one has to perform slightly above average to justify your expenses, and the other has to perform through the moon for you to break even, guess which one the smart investor goes with?
This was a dumb, arrogant, indefensible pick.