Dread's Bucs mock offseason

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Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby DreadNaught » Wed Feb 22, 2017 2:55 pm

MJW's thread inspired me to stop being lazy and do my own. I copied her format and changed the order a slight bit.

The projected 2017 salary cap is going to be around $165m, plus we have $5.3m in cap rollover from last season making the Bucs 2017 cap at around $170m. Sites like OTC and Spotrac have slightly differing data, but it looks like the Bucs currently have around $65-$70m in cap space this offseason (before any cuts are made).

Part One: Dealing With Our Own Guys

Tendered RFAs
Jack Smith, Andrew DePaola, Josh Huff, and Ryan Griffin. - I'd tender Jaq Smith and Ryan Griffen for sure. DePaola suffered an bad injury late last season so there no guarantee he'll be healthy in time. Maybe a late rd tender on Huff, but he's a league minimum guy either way.

Franchise Tag
LOL

Cuts:

Alterraun Verner - Save $6.5m in cap space w/ no dead money. Verner simply doesn't play enough to warrant his salary. With Ryan Smith moving back to CB and the potential to add another CB in FA or the draft I think it's best to cut ties.

Evan Smith - Save $4.5m in cap space w/ no dead money. Time to get better and younger. Smith isn't even a starter and with the Beneoch and Pamphile we have replacements already on the roster before FA or the draft.

George Johnson - Save 2.5m, no dead cap. **** that guy

Current cap space - $77.5-$82.5m

We Should Re-Sign:
Agree w/ MJW for the most part on the list, but I'd let Hawley walk. Here is my list in order of priority;

1) William Gholston - Turns 26 this summer and has got better every year since being a day 3 pick 4 years ago. 5yrs - $7.5m per year
2) Bradley McDougland - Another guy that has developed here and I'd like to keep in the mix at Safety. Imo you need 3 starting caliber Safeties in todays NFL since there is always an injury to that position. 4yrs - $4m per year
3) Akeem Spence - Another guy I'd let test the market first. He's a depth guy at DT, but is a fire hydrant type of player I'd like to keep around. 3yr - $3m per year
4) Russell Shepard - He's a pro-bowl caliber ST player that can play WR in a pinch. Also well respected in the lockeroom. He'll be cheap. 3yrs - $1.5m per year
5) Quizz Rodgers - I'd actually let him test the market, he's JAG but fits nicely here. He's cheap either way. 2yrs - $2m per season
6) Josh Robinson - underrated ST gunner last season. Get him and Shepard back as the full time gunners and core ST players. Cheap. 2ys - $1.5m per year

Roughly $20m in cap to re-sign our own FA bring our cap space down to around $57.5m-$62.5m entering Free Agency and the Draft


Let everyone else go. The list includes; Glennon, Conte, Myers, Daryl Smith, Cherilus, Hawley, VJax

Extension:
Mike Evans makes alot of sense given our cap space and the fat he'll only get more expensive the longer we wait. Evans is due $4.7m in 2017 and since he was a 1st rd pick we can retain him for a 5th yr at around $12m in 2018. A contract extension would be around 5yr @ $14.5m APY. So re-signing him and frontloading his new deal would substantially raise his 2017 cap charge.

Updated cap space - $42.5-$47.5m

Part Two: Unrestricted Free Agent Targets

I'm focusing on five specific position here, DT, WR, Safety, TE, and SLB

Defensive Tackle
Brandon Williams, Baltimore Ravens - 5yr, $55m
I was high on Dontari Poe but his injury history and inconsitancy has scared me away. Williams has been a stud for the Ravens run defense the past 3 seasons and exactly the type of 330lb+ DT we need to occupy double teams or dominate single blocks next to McCoy. Williams would upgrade the run defense immensely and compliment McCoy perfectly. $11m per year is alot for a 2-down player, but worth the investment to help this defense take the next step.

Wide Receiver
Desean Jackson, Washington Redskins - 3yrs, $30m
A burner at 30yrs old that has proven himself as a starting WR in this league. Coach Koetter has talked extensivly about 'explosive plays' and how we lacked in that area last season. Jackson is another great compliment to what we already have in Evans.

Safety
Tony Jefferson, Arizona Cardinals - 4 Years, $28m
Stud player and phenomenal athlete that was overshadowed in the Cards secondary that featured P2 and Matheui. Jefferson next to Tandy or McDougald, with perhaps a Safety in the draft would upgrade the top 4 at the position significantly over last season.

Tight End
Dion Sims, Miami Dolphins, 4yr, $16m

SLB
Sean Weatherspoon, Atlanta Falcons - 2rys - $5m
This would be an inexpensive vet, Weatherspoon has an injury history, but played under Mike Smith in his first stint in Atlanta.

Updated cap space - $8.5-$13.5m

PART THREE: THE DRAFT

Here's a Buccaneers Mock based on the moves discussed above:

1) OT Cam Robinson, Alabama, 6'6" 320lbs - Big, strong, athletic OT who was a former 5* recruit and started at Alabama at LT as a true Freshman. A bit sloppy at times in his technique which I believe is due to him relying on his physical talent too much. He can be our 6th O-linemen/extra TE Dirk likes to use in his rookie season, or even potentially play Guard similar to what the Dolphins did w/ Tunsil last season. Either way he'll replace Dotson in 2018 at RT or become the LT and kick Donovan Smith over to RT.

2) EDGE Carl Lawson, Auburn, 6'2" 260lbs - This guy is being undervalued imho based on various big boards and is available in rd 2 on most mocks I see currently. I don't think he'll be there for us, but if so it's a no-brainer. Lawson has a rock solid build, can bend the edge, and is an explosive athlete for a 260lbs guy. He and Noah Spence coming of the edge w/ McCoy and Ayers would go along way to help close out games in the 4th quarter

3) CB Tre'Davious White, LSU, 5'11" 191lbs - A quick twitch CB that will excel at mirroring WRs in man coverage (ala Grimes). White is not nearly as physical in run support as VH3, but has the athleticism to shadow WRs for extended periods and can compete w/ JudeAB for slot CB reps until taking over for Grimes in 2018.

4) FS Eddie Jackson, Alabama, 6' 194lbs - Rangy Safety built to play more in the back-end as a Centerfield/Single-high type. Not a tone setter in the run game and played behind the best front 7 in college football in college so will be tested much more in the NFL. Has some experience returning kicks also. Would come in and battle for the 4th Safety spot on the 53.

5) OT Julian Davenport, Bucknell, 6'7" 310lbs - GM Jason Licht has made a habit of drafting small school developmental O-linemen in the 5th round. Davenport fits the profile as a former basketball player with ideal size and athleticism to be the future swing Tackle backing up Donovan Smith and Cam Robinson. In 2017 we'll keep him on the 53 man roster to protect him from getting poached since we'll ride w/ Dotson 1 more year.

6) RB Joe Mixon, Oklahoma, 6'1 225lbs - Mixon would be top 40 pick if not for his off-field concerns. There is the obvious incident from 2014 where he punched a woman after getting slapped, but rumors are there may be more than just that regarding his character. I trust Licht and the FO to make there own evaluation if him and go from there. He will almost certainly be there on day 3 and as a football player he has All-pro ability as a do-it-all type if RB. Considering Licht hasn't had a 6th or 7th round pick make the roster to this point I don't see much risk rolling the dice w/ a boom or bust prospect like Mixon.

7) WR/KR/PR - Speedy Noil, TAMU, 5'10" 190lbs - Gadget player that can make you miss in a phone booth. Will have to cut his teeth as a return guy while finding a role on offense

PART FOUR: Examining The Final Roster

Quarterbacks (2) Jameis Winston,Ryan Griffin
We've carried Griffin as a 3rd QB on the 53 for two years so he can be out back-up. Not carrying 3 QBs on the active roster this season.

Running Backs (5) Doug Martin, Joe Mixon, Quizz Rodgers, Charles Sims, Alan Cross (FB/TE)
Looks good on paper to me, but Martin and Mixon are wild cards for different reasons and Sims is nothing more than a 3rd down back. Unless Martin returns to his 1400yd/season form this will be his final season in Tampa (his time may already be up tbh)

Wide Receivers (5) Mike Evans, Desean Jackson, Adam Humphries, Russell Sheppard, Speedy Noil (KR)
I'd like to add a cheap vet to this group, but Evans-Jackson-Humphries are the guys getting all the targets. We don't run much 4WR sets, or atleast have not to this point w/ Dirk.

Tight End (4) Cam Brate, Dion Sims, Luke Stocker, Tevin Westbrook
The draft class was loaded at TE but we missed out :( . I would've loved OJ Howard but he was gone and the board just didn't fall right for TE.

Offensive Linemen (9) Donovan Smith (LT), Kevin Pamphile (LG), Ali Marpet ( C), JR Sweezy (RG), Demar Dotson (RT), Cam Robinson (T), Julie'n Davenport (T), Caleb Benenoch (G/T), Ben Gottchalk, C/G)
Marpet moves inside to Center, Sweezy plays the RG position he played his first 4 years in the NFL, and Pamphile battles 1st round pick Cam Robinson for the starting LG spot (where Pamphile played last season) with the loser being the 6th O-linemen in 'heavy' formations. Benenoch will be the 7th and final O-linemen to dress on gameday while Davenport develops and Gottschalk is there for injury.

Defensive Line (10) Robert Ayers (RE/DT), Gerald McCoy (DT), Brandon Williams (DT), William Gholston (LE/DT), Noah Spence (RE) Jack Smith (LE) Clinton McDonald (DT), Akeem Spence (DT), Carl Lawson (DE), Howard Jones (DE)
Best position group on the team imo. Versatile group that can play any situation with a lot of depth to keep guys fresh.

Linebacker (5) Lavonte David (WLB), Kwon Alexander (MLB), Sean Weatherspoon (SLB), Devante Bond (LB), Adarius Glanton (LB)
Kwon & LVD are the guys here that will be on the field every play. Hopefully Weatherspoon can stay healthy in his limited role if he can beat out 2nd yr LB Bond.... Devonte Bond :P . Glanton is core STer.

Cornerback (6) Brent Grimes, Vernon Hargreaves III, Tre'davious White, Ryan Smith, Josh Robinson, Jude Adjei-Barimah,
Grimes and VH3 return as the starting CBs, rookie Tre' White will battle with Jude for nickel reps while Ryan Smith returns to CB as a back up on the outside.

Safety (4)
Keith Tandy (S), Tony Jefferson (SS), Bradley McDougland (S), Eddie Jackson (FS)
Adding Jefferson to mix gives us a tone setter in the back end to pair with McDougald. Tandy is quality reserve that can fill in at either spot if injury occurs.

Specialists (3) Roberto Aguayo (K), Bryan Anger (P), Andrew DePaolo (or whoever) (LS)
No surprises. Aguayo beats out Gould for the spot.

THE FINAL ROSTER AND STARTING LINEUP (Starters Bolded)

QB Jameis Winston
QB Ryan Griffin (UFA)

RB Doug Martin
RB Joe Mixon
RB Jaquizz Rodgers (Re-Signed)
RB Charles Sims

FB/TE Alan Cross

WR Mike Evans
WR Desean Jackson
WR Adam Humphries

WR Russell Sheppard
WR/KR/PR Speedy Noil

TE Cameron Brate
TE Dion Sims
TE Luke Stocker
TE Tevin Westbrook

LT Donovan Smith
LG Kevin Pamphile
C Ali Marpet
RG J.R. Sweezy
RT Demar Doston

T/G Cam Robinson
T/G Caleb Benenoch
OT Julie'n Davenport
C/G Ben Goddschalk

RE Robert Ayers
DT Gerald McCoy
DT Brandon Williams
LE William Gholston

DE Noah Spence
DE Jack Smith
DE Carl Lawson
DE Howard Jones
DT Clinton McDonald
DT Akeem Spence

WLB Lavonte David
MLB Kwon Alexander
SLB Sean Weatherspoon

LB Devante Bond
LB Adarious Glanton

CB Brent Grimes
CB Vernon Hargreaves III
CB Tre'davious White
FS Bradley McDougald
SS Tony Jefferson

CB Josh Robinson
CB Jude Adjei-Barimah
CB Ryan Smith
S Keith Tandy
FS Eddie Jackson
K Roberto Aguayo
P Bryan Anger
LS Andrew DePaolo


If you disagree with anything :birdiedoublered:
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby Nano » Wed Feb 22, 2017 3:17 pm

This is awesome.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby DreadNaught » Wed Feb 22, 2017 3:18 pm

Nano wrote:This is awesome.


You're awesome, cat lady!!
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby Bootz2004 » Wed Feb 22, 2017 3:21 pm

I might do one myself.

Not a fan of releasing Evan Smith. Also not a fan of moving Marpet to yet another position on the line. Many feel he's the best Olinemen on this team. Well why would you want to move him to a position he's unfamiliar with? He also handles 1 on 1s better than Pamphile or Sweezy did(which isn't saying much). At C he will never see a 1 on 1. We'd be counting on Sweezy or Pamphile. Evan Smith has what I think is very good experience and value being able to fill in at 3 spots inside. He filled in at all 3 this past season and did very well. Depth has been a problem here and it makes zero sense to me to get rid of it. Like Sims and Jackson. Martin is gone. Get over it.

Defensively good job. A lot for Williams but with the way the market is, it's a nice deal. I don't see the appeal in Jefferson but maybe you guys see something I don't. Overall good job. You addressed both lines and that's key.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby Brazen331 » Wed Feb 22, 2017 3:31 pm

At the end of your post you should have typed: YOU LIKE THAT!!!!! That's a playoff team. I do think Robinson will beat someone out though. He could emerge as our best OL towards the end of the season.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby DreadNaught » Wed Feb 22, 2017 3:45 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:I might do one myself.

Not a fan of releasing Evan Smith. Also not a fan of moving Marpet to yet another position on the line. Many feel he's the best Olinemen on this team. Well why would you want to move him to a position he's unfamiliar with? He also handles 1 on 1s better than Pamphile or Sweezy did(which isn't saying much). At C he will never see a 1 on 1. We'd be counting on Sweezy or Pamphile. Evan Smith has what I think is very good experience and value being able to fill in at 3 spots inside. He filled in at all 3 this past season and did very well. Depth has been a problem here and it makes zero sense to me to get rid of it. Like Sims and Jackson. Martin is gone. Get over it.

Defensively good job. A lot for Williams but with the way the market is, it's a nice deal. I don't see the appeal in Jefferson but maybe you guys see something I don't. Overall good job. You addressed both lines and that's key.


Thanks, we obviously disagree on Marpet and have discussed/debated it in other threads so I understand your POV. I'd be fine with him staying at Guard if we were able to upgrade Center some other way. Not a fan of Evan Smith or Hawley (although I love his mentality). Either Sweezy or Marpet will play RG and that is all they have played in the NFL. I realize Sweezy was originally signed to play LG and replace Mankins last season but has never taken a rep at LG in practice or a game and Pamphile stepped in at LG last year so the situation is different now, so we'll see how it plays out. I just want to get the best 5 guys in there and upgrade the weakest areas from last season, so that was the mindset.

As much as adding weapons on offense is talked about, I want the early part of the draft to be used to address the trenches until we are loaded on both sides. Adding a legit #2 like DJ would be my preferred option vice using another 1st round pick on a WR after just doing so in 2014 w/ Evans.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby DreadNaught » Wed Feb 22, 2017 3:48 pm

Brazen331 wrote:At the end of your post you should have typed: YOU LIKE THAT!!!!! That's a playoff team. I do think Robinson will beat someone out though. He could emerge as our best OL towards the end of the season.


Yeah, I have no doubt Cam Robinson would be an upgrade over Pamphile at LG. But I gave the 3rd yr player (Pamphile) the starting nod initially.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby ComingThisFall » Wed Feb 22, 2017 3:49 pm

That definitely looks like a team built to battle for the NFC South. My only worries are the CBs depth and LBs in coverage.

But if that strong group of defensive linemen do their job they will keep the back seven from geting burnt too often.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby terrytate » Wed Feb 22, 2017 4:13 pm

Good one Dread.

I think Cam would be our day 1 right tackle. Cherilus was hot garbage and Dotson has been inconsistent coming off of that injury. He might be healthy and ready to rock this year but I wouldn't pass on a potential franchise LT for him. Let's not forget that there is an outside chance that Cam could beat out Donovan Smith for the LT job, this year. Either way, I like Smith/Robinson as my tackles a lot more than Smith/whoever else. That said, there is a reasonable chance Ramczyk is there for us and I'd go with him over Cam. Everything I said about Cam applies to Ramczyk but Ram looks to be a bit better of a prospect at LT.

I am a little leery of Desean Jackson but I get the logic and wouldn't complain.

I personally would like to get one of these TE's out of this draft. The talent pool there looks deep and we could get an elite talent in rounds 2 or even 3. I accept that we can't get everything in one draft though and another good DE is always welcome.

Lastly, I don't think I'd draft Mixon. I don't think he'll be in the league long. The talent is intriguing if it can be had that last in the draft but it's not worth it when compared with his off the field risks AND the PR fallout from bringing that guy in.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby DreadNaught » Wed Feb 22, 2017 4:21 pm

terrytate wrote:Good one Dread.

I think Cam would be our day 1 right tackle. Cherilus was hot garbage and Dotson has been inconsistent coming off of that injury. He might be healthy and ready to rock this year but I wouldn't pass on a potential franchise LT for him. Let's not forget that there is an outside chance that Cam could beat out Donovan Smith for the LT job, this year. Either way, I like Smith/Robinson as my tackles a lot more than Smith/whoever else. That said, there is a reasonable chance Ramczyk is there for us and I'd go with him over Cam. Everything I said about Cam applies to Ramczyk but Ram looks to be a bit better of a prospect at LT.

I am a little leery of Desean Jackson but I get the logic and wouldn't complain.

I personally would like to get one of these TE's out of this draft. The talent pool there looks deep and we could get an elite talent in rounds 2 or even 3. I accept that we can't get everything in one draft though and another good DE is always welcome.

Lastly, I don't think I'd draft Mixon. I don't think he'll be in the league long. The talent is intriguing if it can be had that last in the draft but it's not worth it when compared with his off the field risks AND the PR fallout from bringing that guy in.


Mixon seems to be radioactive right now, but I needed a day 3 RB to hedge since Martin's future is uncertain. Jamal Williams from BYU is a guy that is a tough runner between the tackles that I'd like day 3 if Mixon is off our board for whatever reason. 6th/7th rounders have been horednous for Licht thus far, so I figure what the hell w/ Mixon. If he's an ass than release him right away.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby Caradoc » Wed Feb 22, 2017 5:17 pm

Everyone in is a rush to extend Evans. You don't extend Evans now, that's just stupid. You extend him after the season. You have one more year of him cheap and you are going to throw that away because of what? You are afraid the giants will give Beckham a monster deal? They arent extending him this year either. It's like you guys are in a panic that we got a good drafted guy and are panicking he might leave for no reason. He isn't going anywhere for at least 2 years, there is no rush.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby Caradoc » Wed Feb 22, 2017 5:21 pm

Lol Joe Mixon? fooking retarded.

Great way to give the media more excuses to drag Winston through the mud. "Look at the Bucs, the all-woman hater team, with a woman beater and rapist starring for them!" The video proof of Mixon will be considered proof of Winstons guilt as well, that is exactly how it will play out in the media.

Stupid.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby DreadNaught » Wed Feb 22, 2017 5:51 pm

Caradoc wrote:Everyone in is a rush to extend Evans. You don't extend Evans now, that's just stupid. You extend him after the season. You have one more year of him cheap and you are going to throw that away because of what? You are afraid the giants will give Beckham a monster deal? They arent extending him this year either. It's like you guys are in a panic that we got a good drafted guy and are panicking he might leave for no reason. He isn't going anywhere for at least 2 years, there is no rush.


Both his agent and the team know what Evans' 2017 and 2018 cap numbers will be and that he's under team control in those years, so those 'cheap years' are factored into the negotiation of the contract extension.

You extend him now b/c we have the cap space to absorb a larger cap hit in 2017 than we potentially would be in 2019 and beyond (if we wait) Jameis, Kwon, Marpet, etc are coming down the pipe for extensions in the coming years and we have $70m in cap space in 2017. So there is a lot of logic to get it done sooner rather than later. The only reason to wait is if you think Evans isn't worth an extension and you plan to let him walk in FA after 2018.

We're not going to just say 'let's forget about the $4.7m your owed in 2017, we want to pay 3x that much and then $15m per year for every remaining year'. That's not how it works.

2017 - $4.7m
2018 - $12m - approximate 5th yr option value, could be slightly more

2019 - $14.5m
2020 - $14.5m
2021 - $14.5m
2022 - $14.5m

So it's a basically a new 6 year contract for around $75m, or an 5yr - $70m "extension" depending on how you prefer to frame it.

What happens is Evans gets a shitload of money upfront and the team can format the annual payouts and cap charges in take more of hit in 2017 when they know they have the cap room to afford it instead of just his scheduled 4.7m 2017 cap hit.
Last edited by DreadNaught on Wed Feb 22, 2017 6:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby Bootz2004 » Wed Feb 22, 2017 5:54 pm

Doc, you're a little overly dramatic on the Mixon thing. The media isn't going to throw Winston in this either because why would they?

But 100% agree on Evans and I'll take it a step futher. He's in no rush to get a deal done either. Doing one now sets a market, not exceed it. Wait for Benjamin, Watkins, Landry, Robinson, etc to sign their deals, take the richest deal, send it to Jason Licht and say that's our starting point.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby DreadNaught » Wed Feb 22, 2017 6:03 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:Doc, you're a little overly dramatic on the Mixon thing. The media isn't going to throw Winston in this either because why would they?

But 100% agree on Evans and I'll take it a step futher. He's in no rush to get a deal done either. Doing one now sets a market, not exceed it. Wait for Benjamin, Watkins, Landry, Robinson, etc to sign their deals, take the richest deal, send it to Jason Licht and say that's our starting point.


That would be Evans betting on himself, which he has every right to do. But getting that security taken care of is compelling to some people. At the end of the day the only negotiation is on year 2019-end of the contract (probably 2022). The longer he waits the higher the # will be.... Unless something bad happens of course.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby Bootz2004 » Wed Feb 22, 2017 6:07 pm

DreadNaught wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:Doc, you're a little overly dramatic on the Mixon thing. The media isn't going to throw Winston in this either because why would they?

But 100% agree on Evans and I'll take it a step futher. He's in no rush to get a deal done either. Doing one now sets a market, not exceed it. Wait for Benjamin, Watkins, Landry, Robinson, etc to sign their deals, take the richest deal, send it to Jason Licht and say that's our starting point.


That would be Evans betting on himself, which he has every right to do. But getting that security taken care of is compelling to some people. At the end of the day the only negotiation is on year 2019-end of the contract (probably 2022). The longer he waits the higher the # will be.... Unless something bad happens of course.


He's no more of a risk to get hurt in 2018 than he was in 2016. I've never liked that as a reason or excuse as to why players should sign deals ASAP. And he's 23. He'd be smart to wait out the market instead of set it and bring those other guys value up.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby real bucs fan » Wed Feb 22, 2017 6:51 pm

I'm one of the bigger Evans fans on this board, but I'm against giving him an extension this offseason. His value is pretty sky high at the moment. Alot can go wrong in a year. Evans could regress, get injured, lose targets due to getting a Desean Jackson, etc...

What's the worst that happens if you don't re-sign him? He goes Megatron on the league and you have to give him top cash? Fine. We have the money. Plus I don't see his contract topping what OBJ is gonna get anyway.

Let Evans show and prove for one more year. You still have control over him for the forseeable future thanks to his option and the franchise tag.

No need to get ahead of yourself and pay him before you need to. How often do you see first rounders get extensions after just 3 years?
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby NJDungeoneer » Wed Feb 22, 2017 7:37 pm

You do it because his price is likely to go higher, not lower.

The odds are that the price of top tier wide receivers will go up quite a bit over the next couple of years. It doesn't just depend on Evan's production, you need to figure in the overall cap inflation.

Get him locked up now, and worry about other positions on the team in the next year or two.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby Caradoc » Wed Feb 22, 2017 8:14 pm

NJDungeoneer wrote:You do it because his price is likely to go higher, not lower.

The odds are that the price of top tier wide receivers will go up quite a bit over the next couple of years. It doesn't just depend on Evan's production, you need to figure in the overall cap inflation.

Get him locked up now, and worry about other positions on the team in the next year or two.



No.

You dont extend someone two years early because you are worried the price will go up. It isnt going up 8 million in one year You guys are getting worked up over nothing.

Even if you assume hed be willing to prorate it over 4 years you still are only breaking even and you are assuming risk by guaranteeing more money as well. And 6 year contracts arent real, they are pro forma. Just like the 5 year roolie contracts they are really 4 year deals, so projecting savings over 6 years is government-level bait and switxh accounting
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby Caradoc » Wed Feb 22, 2017 8:19 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:Doc, you're a little overly dramatic on the Mixon thing. The media isn't going to throw Winston in this either because why would they?

But 100% agree on Evans and I'll take it a step futher. He's in no rush to get a deal done either. Doing one now sets a market, not exceed it. Wait for Benjamin, Watkins, Landry, Robinson, etc to sign their deals, take the richest deal, send it to Jason Licht and say that's our starting point.


Yeah, because CNN didnt run that hunting ground smear piece? Youre kidding yourself if you think Jameis wouldnt be mentioned every time Mixon was.

They would love a high profile duo to attack, too good a target for them to resist. Jameis doent need this.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Wed Feb 22, 2017 8:22 pm

I gotta admit that at first glance I like this. I think I like it more than MJWs.

But I need to take the time to get into it. But early on I like turning Verner into Tradavious White. That's shrewd.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Wed Feb 22, 2017 8:28 pm

Can we get Montravious Adams in the second instead of Lawson?


I'm thinking right school, wrong guy.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby Bootz2004 » Wed Feb 22, 2017 8:42 pm

real bucs fan wrote:I'm one of the bigger Evans fans on this board, but I'm against giving him an extension this offseason. His value is pretty sky high at the moment. Alot can go wrong in a year. Evans could regress, get injured, lose targets due to getting a Desean Jackson, etc...

What's the worst that happens if you don't re-sign him? He goes Megatron on the league and you have to give him top cash? Fine. We have the money. Plus I don't see his contract topping what OBJ is gonna get anyway.

Let Evans show and prove for one more year. You still have control over him for the forseeable future thanks to his option and the franchise tag.

No need to get ahead of yourself and pay him before you need to. How often do you see first rounders get extensions after just 3 years?


Ummmm no kiddo. You have that all wrong. At this stage in his career there's a much higher likelihood of his price tag rising than it is falling. An injury won't reduce it. Fewer targets won't reduce it. His value is going to go up regardless because he's already established a pattern of consistency and production for multiple years and is only 23. If the Bucs are foolish enough to lowball him on an offer if he "only" goes 72/1105/6 next season he will gladly move on to the next team.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby real bucs fan » Wed Feb 22, 2017 9:08 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:I'm one of the bigger Evans fans on this board, but I'm against giving him an extension this offseason. His value is pretty sky high at the moment. Alot can go wrong in a year. Evans could regress, get injured, lose targets due to getting a Desean Jackson, etc...

What's the worst that happens if you don't re-sign him? He goes Megatron on the league and you have to give him top cash? Fine. We have the money. Plus I don't see his contract topping what OBJ is gonna get anyway.

Let Evans show and prove for one more year. You still have control over him for the forseeable future thanks to his option and the franchise tag.

No need to get ahead of yourself and pay him before you need to. How often do you see first rounders get extensions after just 3 years?


Ummmm no kiddo. You have that all wrong. At this stage in his career there's a much higher likelihood of his price tag rising than it is falling. An injury won't reduce it. Fewer targets won't reduce it. His value is going to go up regardless because he's already established a pattern of consistency and production for multiple years and is only 23. If the Bucs are foolish enough to lowball him on an offer if he "only" goes 72/1105/6 next season he will gladly move on to the next team.


How many first rounders get extended after 3 seasons? Also, who said anything about lowballing Evans? If he shows and proves, pay the man.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby Bootz2004 » Wed Feb 22, 2017 10:10 pm

real bucs fan wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
Ummmm no kiddo. You have that all wrong. At this stage in his career there's a much higher likelihood of his price tag rising than it is falling. An injury won't reduce it. Fewer targets won't reduce it. His value is going to go up regardless because he's already established a pattern of consistency and production for multiple years and is only 23. If the Bucs are foolish enough to lowball him on an offer if he "only" goes 72/1105/6 next season he will gladly move on to the next team.


How many first rounders get extended after 3 seasons? Also, who said anything about lowballing Evans? If he shows and proves, pay the man.


You stated "a lot could go wrong" and "let him show and prove". Prove what?

And I'm not even advocating us extending him right now but you're wrong. A lot of 1st rounders re-sign after 3 years. Off the top of my head, Tyron Smith, JJ Watt, Patrick Peterson, Robert Quinn, Ryan Tannehill, Tavon Austin, Travis Frederick to name a few all re-signed after year 3.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby real bucs fan » Wed Feb 22, 2017 10:17 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:
How many first rounders get extended after 3 seasons? Also, who said anything about lowballing Evans? If he shows and proves, pay the man.


You stated "a lot could go wrong" and "let him show and prove". Prove what?

And I'm not even advocating us extending him right now but you're wrong. A lot of 1st rounders re-sign after 3 years. Off the top of my head, Tyron Smith, JJ Watt, Patrick Peterson, Robert Quinn, Ryan Tannehill, Tavon Austin, Travis Frederick to name a few all re-signed after year 3.


The point is that there is very little incentive to extend him now.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby beardmcdoug » Wed Feb 22, 2017 10:25 pm

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Great mockseason my man - from your mouth to Licht's ears.

Jameis agrees with your D Jackson pickup too

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/02/22/jameis-winston-you-better-believe-we-want-desean-jackson/

Edit: I'm late lol didn't see y'all talkin about d Jackson in the other thread
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby Bootz2004 » Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:36 pm

real bucs fan wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:
You stated "a lot could go wrong" and "let him show and prove". Prove what?

And I'm not even advocating us extending him right now but you're wrong. A lot of 1st rounders re-sign after 3 years. Off the top of my head, Tyron Smith, JJ Watt, Patrick Peterson, Robert Quinn, Ryan Tannehill, Tavon Austin, Travis Frederick to name a few all re-signed after year 3.


The point is that there is very little incentive to extend him now.


From the teams standpoint they should want to extend him ASAP. Like you stated, his value is sky high right now. It's the not going to drop. It can only go up. With that going up so will the price tag. Your reasoning was all wrong. A drop in production will not make him cheaper. 1st round picks routinely re-sign after year 3.

From Evans standpoint he'd be best served waiting. See what those guys in that 2014 class get and see your starting point. He's the 2nd most productive WR from that class so the number will be high.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby real bucs fan » Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:55 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:
The point is that there is very little incentive to extend him now.


From the teams standpoint they should want to extend him ASAP. Like you stated, his value is sky high right now. It's not going to drop. It can only go up. With that going up so will the price tag. Your reasoning was all wrong. A drop in production will not make him cheaper. 1st round picks routinely re-sign after year 3.

From Evans standpoint he'd be best served waiting. See what those guys in that 2014 class get and see your starting point. He's the 2nd most productive WR from that class so the number will be high.


Link?

You're forgetting Mike Evans was the most targeted WR in football last year. Assuming we can add other weapons (like a ball demanding Desean) and get the run game going, he's going to be targeted alot less.
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Re: Dread's Bucs mock offseason

Postby Naismith » Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:29 am

His price isn't going down. Whether this year or next year, Mike Evans is going to sign a contract that sets the market for WRs or is extremely comparable to the biggest WR contract in the NFL. His performance next year isn't going to change that. Only some sort of devastating injury could reduce his payday.
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