Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Patrick McIrish » Tue May 08, 2018 1:22 pm

Daily double.... Dread comparing Aguayo to Vinatieri and Justin Tucker..... RBF wholeheartedly agrees, "fully on board". :lol: :lol:


real bucs fan wrote:
DreadNaught wrote:If Aguayo goes on to be a Gostowski/Justin Tucker type of kicker for the next decade+ (which is the expectation imo) than nobody will care he was a late 2nd rd pick.

The 'research' that supports arguments like 'you can find kickers later' and 'drafting one early doesn't mean they are successful' can be applied to many positions. Licht has been part of organizations that have a great kicker (Akers, Vinatieri , Goskowski), so he knows the value. He's been through 3 kickers in 2 years. Imo, No objective person can say that Aguayo doesn't have the potential to be a very good kicker and an upgrade over the kickers we've had the past couple of years.

We drafted Gramatica in 3rd round (80th overall) and he won a alot of games for us here in Tampa. Was that pick 'ridiculous' or 'absurd'?

The hit rate on drafting a player 59th overall is less that 40%, and that is just for him to be starter. It can be easily argued that Aguayo was a safe and smart pick, with the potential to be a home run. I'm not even going to list all late 2nd round picks from recent years that aren't even in the NFL anymore, much less making an impact who wins and loses on Sunday like a good kicker will.


I'm fully on board. That said, I do find it slightly concerning his percentages dropped each of his 3 seasons at FSU, and that he isn't exactly known for having the biggest leg either...
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Nano » Tue May 08, 2018 1:22 pm

MJW wrote:
Nano wrote:This is just one of those picks you shrug and laugh as fans. It was just a huge reach overall at the time...and it didn't really help that he had the accuracy of Kyle Brindza. Just a bad situation overall...

Funny enough, it turns out it wasn't even the worst pick of the 2nd round. Somehow the Jets outdid us by selecting Hackenburg.


No, Aguayo was still worse. Hack didn't cost them any wins through his failure to do what a replacement level player could. Aguayo missed costly kicks that a kicker off the streets likely could have made.

Aguayo actually managed to play though, and he did have that one game winner. Hack's only claim to fame is that he's the first QB in 35 years to be drafted in the 1st/2nd round and not throw a pass in his first 2 seasons. Entering his 3rd season and his QB Guru is telling him that mechanically, he needs to start over from scratch because he's so bad.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Patrick McIrish » Tue May 08, 2018 1:23 pm

Carson going advanced metric route here, MJW represented well throughout...


Ken Carson wrote:
MJW wrote:
Please link and I will promptly and thoroughly engage these arguments. I tuned out when the thread became, "Yeah, but remember last year you said something else in regards to one small point you're making!?" so I might have missed them.

Point me in the right direction and I will give you my undivided attention.

I've posted twice in this thread about the Bucs potentially going the advanced metrics route. Koetter was quoted comparing the % point differences in teams starting at the 25 vs the 20. And if Aguayo is significantly better than a league average kicker (whatever the football equivalent of WAR would be) vs what Vonn Bell's similar metric would be, then you could argue for a specialist in the 2nd.

Put it this way. Aguayo has the possibility of not only winning us a game that a league average kicker (like Brindza) would not. He also can push the % of defense stopping opponents from scoring a few extra times per year. That could add up to the difference between the playoffs and not. That's at least a defensible reason for the pick.

We can also argue if that type of thinking is outsmarting yourself. But math has been changing sports lately, especially in baseball and basketball. Why shouldn't it start affecting the NFL draft?
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Patrick McIrish » Tue May 08, 2018 1:29 pm

Bootz throws in his support of the pick, even AFTER shaky start? He and NYBF were perhaps the most vocal fans as the season went on....


Bootz2004 wrote:Oh and while we're on the subject, let's accept this fact people: he's going to miss kicks. Whether he's a 1st round, 2nd round, 7th round or undrafted. He's going to miss kicks. Do you get bent out of shape when a 1st round QB throws a pick or a 1st round LT gives up a sack or 1st round WR drops a pass? Get use to it people and simply enjoy the ride of having Roberto Aguayo.




:lol: :lol:
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Patrick McIrish » Tue May 08, 2018 1:30 pm

Dread still sold on trading up to the 2nd for a kicker, LOL.


DreadNaught wrote:Aguayo will be fine. I get that him missing kicks he's (literally) not missed since high school is a bit concerning. But Aguayo is talented kicker and the most accurate kicker in the history of college football. So I don't think he forgot how to kick, or that the pressure will be too big for him. He kicked for FSU in the title game, so he's been on the big stage many times.

I think it's just nerves at this point. The switching holders every kick in not ideal, but 2/3 of his misses so far were inside 35yds, so I'm not going to blame the holder. Either way, we will be down to 1 punter shortly anyways so that will take care of itself.

We have 2 more games (at home no less) for Aguayo to calm his nerves and let his natural ability speak for itself.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby PrimeMinister » Tue May 08, 2018 1:33 pm

Nano wrote:
MJW wrote:
No, Aguayo was still worse. Hack didn't cost them any wins through his failure to do what a replacement level player could. Aguayo missed costly kicks that a kicker off the streets likely could have made.

Aguayo actually managed to play though, and he did have that one game winner. Hack's only claim to fame is that he's the first QB in 35 years to be drafted in the 1st/2nd round and not throw a pass in his first 2 seasons. Entering his 3rd season and his QB Guru is telling him that mechanically, he needs to start over from scratch because he's so bad.


Aguayo is still a demonstrably worse pick. At least Hackenberg plays the premium position in the league as a QB. We traded up to select a position that is regularly found as UDFA.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Patrick McIrish » Tue May 08, 2018 1:35 pm

Of course Kenda supports the move, arguing with a straight face Vinatieri missed some FG's early in his career, clearly Aguayo's career would work out the same way.

Only logical, right?


Babeinbucland wrote:Some Writer @yahoo makes an interesting point

"...It’s not unheard of for rookie kickers to struggle: Adam Vinatieri, who will receive serious consideration for the Pro Football Hall of Fame, was perfect in his first game with the New England Patriots in 1996, but then followed that up by missing 5 of 12 field goals and 2 of 6 extra points over the next three games. A decade later, also with the Patriots, Stephen Gostkowski was just 2-for-5 on field goals over the second, third and fourth games of his career..."



Enough for today.

Time to start being accountable for some of the ignorance we read every year....

You've been warned, govern yourselves accordingly.

We move on.... (finally)......
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Patrick McIrish » Tue May 08, 2018 1:36 pm

Cheb reassring the forum nothing to worry about....

Cheb wrote:He has only played two preseason games in his rookie year. There will be growing pains, especially when the holder changes frequently. Give him time. There is no need to panic yet.

Y'all need to chill out.


:shock: :shock:
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Ken Carson » Tue May 08, 2018 1:38 pm

Patrick McIrish wrote:Sorry Ken but your comment he would solve our kicking problem for the next 12 years and be a top 5 kicker while doing it???


Patrick McIrish wrote:


Negative. Did not comment either way on that sir.

My full attention was directed to the comedy of the "top 5 kicker and playing for the Bucs the next 12 years" comment.

Read it again and report back, or we can do it the quick way.....

Surrender noted.

We move on.

Bruh, the whole thought begins with the context that *IF* he was a top 5 K for a decade, then it was a good pick. The inverse is also true. *IF* he isn’t a top 5 K for a decade, it was a bad pick.

My comment was about how this guy had to be a generational placekicker to justify his draft position.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Patrick McIrish » Tue May 08, 2018 1:38 pm

Bootz reassuing the worry warts it was a great 2nd round pick afterall:

Bootz2004 wrote:All told Aguayo finished the preseason 8/10(80%) on FG kicks and 7/8(87.5%) on XP kicks....All of the whining came off of 3 missed kicks lmao!



:lol: :lol:
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Naismith » Tue May 08, 2018 2:14 pm

If he was a top five kicker for a decade, it's still a considerably worse pick than a bust at QB.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Buc2 » Tue May 08, 2018 3:03 pm

PMI trolling old threads that make him look smarter than others. :lol:
Even funnier, those that are taking the bait. :lol: :lol:
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Heisenberg » Tue May 08, 2018 3:20 pm

Naismith wrote:If he was a top five kicker for a decade, it's still a considerably worse pick than a bust at QB.

False
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Cheb » Tue May 08, 2018 3:38 pm

Buc2 wrote:PMI trolling old threads that make him look smarter than others. :lol:
Even funnier, those that are taking the bait. :lol: :lol:


No kidding.

Why anyone takes anything he says seriously I'll never know.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Patrick McIrish » Tue May 08, 2018 5:39 pm

Right Cheb, why take it seriously, why should we notice you are consistently wrong on your evaluations? If you say it long and loud enough perhaps your track record on opinions will be deemed irrelevant? Reviewing your posts from the last decade or so its most certainly worth a try.

Deflection attempt noted.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Cheb » Tue May 08, 2018 5:54 pm

Patrick McIrish wrote:Right Cheb, why take it seriously, why should we notice you are consistently wrong on your evaluations? If you say it long and loud enough perhaps your track record on opinions will be deemed irrelevant? Reviewing your posts from the last decade or so its most certainly worth a try.

Deflection attempt noted.


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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Patrick McIrish » Tue May 08, 2018 6:06 pm

Actually was targeting Dread in this example because his ridiculous comments elsewhere. The guy is 100% behind every move the Bucs make. If Licht drafted a pile of **** Dread would comment how with a little work it could quite possibly be the best defender on the team. Another steal by our GM!! Yahoo!!

And nothing wrong with the blind homer that submissively agrees with every move we make, plenty of casuals here that desperately need positivity in their life. What irritates the fake PMI is when he claims to get something right, claims he saw something in a player we drafted that no one else saw.

Reminds me of Kenda and her getting a feeling for 13 plus years we would run a kick back for a TD this weekend. It FINALLY happens and she gloats about being Cleo-Kenda, her instincts were right again, and she was dead serious.

When the forum optimist predicts great things for every player we draft/trade for or whatever, when it does work out he is not correct. Roughly 50% of the time, with the Bucs we will call it 30%, law of averages indicate some deals will be beneficial for us.....

Summary? Any clown can blindly predict a good move or a kickoff returned to the house every week but when it happens they're still a clown. No real insight involved, just another homeristic casual fan pumping the pom-poms like they always do. Yes, some need that in life but on a posting board designed to hear real opinions the material is expected, dated, and you can wipe your ass with it.

I actually like both Kenda and Dread, nice ladies and all but if you think either one knows their ass from a hole in the ground you might be a bigger idiot than they are....

We move on.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Patrick McIrish » Tue May 08, 2018 6:11 pm

Yes, early happy hour today.....


PATRICK EUGENE MCIRISH,YOU'VE JUST BEEN EDUMACATED!
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Patrick McIrish » Tue May 08, 2018 6:16 pm

Ken Carson wrote:
Patrick McIrish wrote:Sorry Ken but your comment he would solve our kicking problem for the next 12 years and be a top 5 kicker while doing it???



Bruh, the whole thought begins with the context that *IF* he was a top 5 K for a decade, then it was a good pick. The inverse is also true. *IF* he isn’t a top 5 K for a decade, it was a bad pick.

My comment was about how this guy had to be a generational placekicker to justify his draft position.



Well that certainly needed to be clarified, thank you Ken.

I give you credit though, you do bring opinions and they are sometimes positive and/or negative.

I can dig that, its those 1 way Charleys that drive me bananas.....
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Patrick McIrish » Tue May 08, 2018 6:36 pm

Cheb wrote:
Why anyone takes anything he says seriously I'll never know.



Yes, besides playing/coaching football more years than most here have been alive, professional level writing skills, 7% body fat, an IQ most MENSA members would find stunning and a penchant for seeing through bullshit... yeah why would anyone listen to me?

Yep, just another poster here in cyberworld? Probably another dozen or so just like me around here, eh? Sigh. Not to come across cocky but we can all fake NFL careers but we cant fake being Patrick Eugene McIrish. That dude is the real deal and we all know it....

Lets move on guys before someone gets their feelings hurt.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Jason Bourne » Tue May 08, 2018 6:57 pm

Dude , you got a inferiority complex ? What’s the point in this drivel ?
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Deja Entendu » Tue May 08, 2018 7:13 pm

If you put a gun in my mouth and made me pick between Aguayo and Hackensburg, I would quickly mumble out Aquayo. I don't care if it's to kick or play QB.


Still a travesty of a draft pick, but we should all, collectively as a fan-base, forget. That being said, I hope there is a permanent plaque of his placed in the Bucs' GM office for Licht and all future GMs to be reminded of daily.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Jason Bourne » Tue May 08, 2018 7:19 pm

Deja Entendu wrote:If you put a gun in my mouth and made me pick between Aguayo and Hackensburg, I would quickly mumble out Aquayo. I don't care if it's to kick or play QB.


Still a travesty of a draft pick, but we should all, collectively as a fan-base, forget. That being said, I hope there is a permanent plaque of his placed in the Bucs' GM office for Licht and all future GMs to be reminded of daily.


It was a bad pick but that’s old news ... at least we didn’t pick Derwin James at 7 .. that might of been worse
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby MJW » Tue May 08, 2018 7:39 pm

Heisenberg wrote:
Naismith wrote:If he was a top five kicker for a decade, it's still a considerably worse pick than a bust at QB.

False


Flawed processes can yield positive results.
Sound processes don't always work out.

It's why nobody confuses a lotto player with a sound investor, even when he wins, and a smart investor doesn't throw his research away when a stock fails.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Zarniwoop » Tue May 08, 2018 8:13 pm

MJW wrote:
Flawed processes can yield positive results.
Sound processes don't always work out.





I so much want to geek out with Type I and Type II error, but I’ll save myself the embrassment
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby MJW » Tue May 08, 2018 8:27 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:
MJW wrote:
Flawed processes can yield positive results.
Sound processes don't always work out.





I so much want to geek out with Type I and Type II error, but I’ll save myself the embrassment


I'm giving you a knowing nod, friend.

I've been thinking about this general subject a bit.

There are really two kinds of mistakes a GM (or anyone else, but let's keep the scope reasonable) can make:

Errors in process, and errors in evaluation.

Errors in evaluation are universal. Ozzie Newsome is the best GM of the last 30 years. He drafted Kyle Boller, Travis Taylor, Dan Cody, Breshad Perriman, blah blah. His evaluations didn't work out in those cases. When you're talking about the success or failure of a prospect, you're talking about a thousand variables, perhaps half of which you can even recognize, much less control for.

Aguayo was an error in process. That's what pissed me off about it when it happened. It wasn't that I didn't like the player. It was that drafting a kicker with that pick was a broken process. The odds were stacked against every aspect of the potential yield. From the volatility of the position, to the lack of deviation from the mean from one kicker to the next, to the plethora of good kickers who shake out every single year, to the fact his 2nd round contract represented poor salary cap value for a kicker - it was a totally indefensible process.

Christian Hackenberg sucks. But the error wasn't in process. Considering the potential yield of the position in production and/or trade value, the potential salary bargain if the pick had worked out, etc, picking a quarterback with that pick made PERFECT sense, and was, in a vacuum, a good investment, especially if the only things you knew about Hackenberg were his measurables and arm strength. The failure, of course, was that it was evident to everyone that Hackenberg himself sucked at football.

To put it another way, had the Bucs drafted Wil Lutz, they would have drafted one of the better kickers in the NFL. And it still would have been rock stupid. It would have been grossly overpaying in opportunity cost (the 2nd round pick) for a kicker who makes one more kick a season than the league average. Had the Jets drafted Dak Prescott, nobody would have said they shouldn't have drafted *a quarterback* at that spot. Their logic was sound; their evaluation was ****. And nobody should ever forget, as we line up to laud Jason Licht for whatever reason, that he's still a guy who thought his process was sound simply because he liked that particular kicker.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby MJW » Tue May 08, 2018 8:33 pm

Also, this is the same reason Dave Gettleman is an idiot, and the Barkley pick was a mistake. It has nothing to do with liking or not liking Barkley. He eschewed an opportunity franchises rarely get (to draft a quarterback with elite traits.) He did so with no long-term plan at the position. He ignored the chance to add a quarterback who would be one of the lowest paid starters in the league for 4 years, allowing him to build his roster, as we're seeing the Eagles do with Carson Wentz and the Rams with Jared Goff and a few years ago, the Seahawks with Russell Wilson. Saquan Barkley is ALREADY the 4th highest paid running back in the NFL. The odds on him "outplaying" his contract are basically nil. And ironically, if Saquan Barkley is half as good as he thinks he is, they likely won't be drafting high enough in the next several years to land a QB like Darnold or Allen or Rosen.

That's putting your investment in a great position to disappoint you, regardless of whether or not you drafted a good football player. Whenever you set the burden of return as high as it is on Barkley for your decision to work out, your decision sucked.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby PrimeMinister » Wed May 09, 2018 8:10 pm

Both great posts MJW.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby PrimeMinister » Wed May 09, 2018 8:11 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:
MJW wrote:
Flawed processes can yield positive results.
Sound processes don't always work out.





I so much want to geek out with Type I and Type II error, but I’ll save myself the embrassment


Thanks for this! Stats was hands down my favorite class in undergrad. I forgot how much I enjoyed it until your little reminder.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby real bucs fan » Wed May 09, 2018 8:16 pm

Patrick McIrish wrote:Daily double.... Dread comparing Aguayo to Vinatieri and Justin Tucker..... RBF wholeheartedly agrees, "fully on board". :lol: :lol:


real bucs fan wrote:
I'm fully on board. That said, I do find it slightly concerning his percentages dropped each of his 3 seasons at FSU, and that he isn't exactly known for having the biggest leg either...


Every post I had in this thread expressed reservations...
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