Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby real bucs fan » Wed May 09, 2018 8:17 pm

MJW wrote:Also, this is the same reason Dave Gettleman is an idiot, and the Barkley pick was a mistake. It has nothing to do with liking or not liking Barkley. He eschewed an opportunity franchises rarely get (to draft a quarterback with elite traits.) He did so with no long-term plan at the position. He ignored the chance to add a quarterback who would be one of the lowest paid starters in the league for 4 years, allowing him to build his roster, as we're seeing the Eagles do with Carson Wentz and the Rams with Jared Goff and a few years ago, the Seahawks with Russell Wilson. Saquan Barkley is ALREADY the 4th highest paid running back in the NFL. The odds on him "outplaying" his contract are basically nil. And ironically, if Saquan Barkley is half as good as he thinks he is, they likely won't be drafting high enough in the next several years to land a QB like Darnold or Allen or Rosen.

That's putting your investment in a great position to disappoint you, regardless of whether or not you drafted a good football player. Whenever you set the burden of return as high as it is on Barkley for your decision to work out, your decision sucked.

We'll see who has the better career, Barkley or Darnold, and we will revisit this.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Mountaineer Buc » Wed May 09, 2018 8:49 pm

real bucs fan wrote:
MJW wrote:Also, this is the same reason Dave Gettleman is an idiot, and the Barkley pick was a mistake. It has nothing to do with liking or not liking Barkley. He eschewed an opportunity franchises rarely get (to draft a quarterback with elite traits.) He did so with no long-term plan at the position. He ignored the chance to add a quarterback who would be one of the lowest paid starters in the league for 4 years, allowing him to build his roster, as we're seeing the Eagles do with Carson Wentz and the Rams with Jared Goff and a few years ago, the Seahawks with Russell Wilson. Saquan Barkley is ALREADY the 4th highest paid running back in the NFL. The odds on him "outplaying" his contract are basically nil. And ironically, if Saquan Barkley is half as good as he thinks he is, they likely won't be drafting high enough in the next several years to land a QB like Darnold or Allen or Rosen.

That's putting your investment in a great position to disappoint you, regardless of whether or not you drafted a good football player. Whenever you set the burden of return as high as it is on Barkley for your decision to work out, your decision sucked.

We'll see who has the better career, Barkley or Darnold, and we will revisit this.

You missed the point.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Nano » Wed May 09, 2018 8:56 pm

Even if Barkley has a better career, it'd still be a poor allocation of resources. Eli is 37...38 by the time the playoffs start. He's already showing signs of decline. The only other QBs on the roster were Davis Webb(Who has never attempted a pass) and Alex "Trickshot" Tanney. You are in the rare position picking 2nd overall(after having one of your worst years in decades)to pick ANY QB that you want(minus Mayfield). You can secure your future now and instead of waiting for the next top 5 pick season.

Instead of all that you refuse to listen to trade offers, and you pick for the now like you're desperate by taking a shiny new RB. Good for the Giants though I guess...they have a guy that can put up pretty stats like OBJ while they continue to lose games because their roster is total **** and they have no direction going forward.

Though, I guess we should've seen this coming as Gettleman liked to go with flash when he was the GM of the Panthers.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Bootz2004 » Wed May 09, 2018 9:16 pm

The Giants very well could be drafting top 5 next year.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Super K » Wed May 09, 2018 9:17 pm

Bootz2004 wrote:The Giants very well could be drafting top 5 next year.



Yep...

Again...
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Naismith » Wed May 09, 2018 9:17 pm

real bucs fan wrote:
MJW wrote:Also, this is the same reason Dave Gettleman is an idiot, and the Barkley pick was a mistake. It has nothing to do with liking or not liking Barkley. He eschewed an opportunity franchises rarely get (to draft a quarterback with elite traits.) He did so with no long-term plan at the position. He ignored the chance to add a quarterback who would be one of the lowest paid starters in the league for 4 years, allowing him to build his roster, as we're seeing the Eagles do with Carson Wentz and the Rams with Jared Goff and a few years ago, the Seahawks with Russell Wilson. Saquan Barkley is ALREADY the 4th highest paid running back in the NFL. The odds on him "outplaying" his contract are basically nil. And ironically, if Saquan Barkley is half as good as he thinks he is, they likely won't be drafting high enough in the next several years to land a QB like Darnold or Allen or Rosen.

That's putting your investment in a great position to disappoint you, regardless of whether or not you drafted a good football player. Whenever you set the burden of return as high as it is on Barkley for your decision to work out, your decision sucked.

We'll see who has the better career, Barkley or Darnold, and we will revisit this.


This is one of my favorite exchanges.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby real bucs fan » Wed May 09, 2018 9:24 pm

Mountaineer Buc wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:We'll see who has the better career, Barkley or Darnold, and we will revisit this.

You missed the point.

The point won't matter if Barkley is a superstar and Darnold struggles throughout his career...
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Bootz2004 » Wed May 09, 2018 9:26 pm

MJW wrote:Also, this is the same reason Dave Gettleman is an idiot, and the Barkley pick was a mistake. It has nothing to do with liking or not liking Barkley. He eschewed an opportunity franchises rarely get (to draft a quarterback with elite traits.) He did so with no long-term plan at the position. He ignored the chance to add a quarterback who would be one of the lowest paid starters in the league for 4 years, allowing him to build his roster, as we're seeing the Eagles do with Carson Wentz and the Rams with Jared Goff and a few years ago, the Seahawks with Russell Wilson. Saquan Barkley is ALREADY the 4th highest paid running back in the NFL. The odds on him "outplaying" his contract are basically nil. And ironically, if Saquan Barkley is half as good as he thinks he is, they likely won't be drafting high enough in the next several years to land a QB like Darnold or Allen or Rosen.

That's putting your investment in a great position to disappoint you, regardless of whether or not you drafted a good football player. Whenever you set the burden of return as high as it is on Barkley for your decision to work out, your decision sucked.


Put pot roast in that group too, building around Winston.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby PrimeMinister » Wed May 09, 2018 10:08 pm

real bucs fan wrote:
Mountaineer Buc wrote:You missed the point.

The point won't matter if Barkley is a superstar and Darnold struggles throughout his career...


Is it really this difficult to grasp?
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby MJW » Wed May 09, 2018 11:42 pm

real bucs fan wrote:
MJW wrote:Also, this is the same reason Dave Gettleman is an idiot, and the Barkley pick was a mistake. It has nothing to do with liking or not liking Barkley. He eschewed an opportunity franchises rarely get (to draft a quarterback with elite traits.) He did so with no long-term plan at the position. He ignored the chance to add a quarterback who would be one of the lowest paid starters in the league for 4 years, allowing him to build his roster, as we're seeing the Eagles do with Carson Wentz and the Rams with Jared Goff and a few years ago, the Seahawks with Russell Wilson. Saquan Barkley is ALREADY the 4th highest paid running back in the NFL. The odds on him "outplaying" his contract are basically nil. And ironically, if Saquan Barkley is half as good as he thinks he is, they likely won't be drafting high enough in the next several years to land a QB like Darnold or Allen or Rosen.

That's putting your investment in a great position to disappoint you, regardless of whether or not you drafted a good football player. Whenever you set the burden of return as high as it is on Barkley for your decision to work out, your decision sucked.

We'll see who has the better career, Barkley or Darnold, and we will revisit this.


It's been said like 8 times, but that isn't the point, at all. Like, you totally missed it.

What Barkley does is irrelevant. If I thought he was going to be LaDanian Tomlinson, the point would stand.

Likewise, he isn't "competing" against Sam Darnold, or Josh Allen, or Josh Rosen, to be the "better" football player.

They decided to draft a position where good talent is abundant, and where they're locked in with one of the most expensive contracts in the league before their pick plays a snap. The cost they paid was not only the opportunity to draft a position of dire need, where talent is literally the most valuable commodity in the league, but also the opportunity to gain a huge cap advantage going forward.

Even if you're of the mentality that Darnold, Allen, and Rosen are all complete and total ****, they could have sold the pick for an INCREDIBLE value to someone who doesn't feel that way. It's conceivable they could have added something along the lines of three first rounders plus, depending on how far they were willing to fall. They could have drafted a back who would have provided 80% of Barkley's production at 30% of Barkley's cost, even if you think Barkley is an incredible talent at the position, using a throwaway pick from said trade, and had the ammo to move forward in the next draft or two for a quarterback they do love from their spoils. They could have rebuilt their roster. Instead, they now have a really talented running back and a soft landing spot for Ryan Tannehill in two years.

Basically, Dave Gettleman is "old school," in the sense that he has no concept of value, analytics, positional scarcity, cap economics, etc, but he knows a good football player and he knows good football players are a good thing to have, the end, and screw the nerds who think about it more than that (he said as much.) Dave Gettleman, it should be noted, was fired two years ago from the Panthers.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby real bucs fan » Thu May 10, 2018 12:03 am

MJW wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:We'll see who has the better career, Barkley or Darnold, and we will revisit this.


It's been said like 8 times, but that isn't the point, at all. Like, you totally missed it.

What Barkley does is irrelevant. If I thought he was going to be LaDanian Tomlinson, the point would stand.

Likewise, he isn't "competing" against Sam Darnold, or Josh Allen, or Josh Rosen, to be the "better" football player.

They decided to draft a position where good talent is abundant, and where they're locked in with one of the most expensive contracts in the league before their pick plays a snap. The cost they paid was not only the opportunity to draft a position of dire need, where talent is literally the most valuable commodity in the league, but also the opportunity to gain a huge cap advantage going forward.

Even if you're of the mentality that Darnold, Allen, and Rosen are all complete and total ****, they could have sold the pick for an INCREDIBLE value to someone who doesn't feel that way. It's conceivable they could have added something along the lines of three first rounders plus, depending on how far they were willing to fall. They could have drafted a back who would have provided 80% of Barkley's production at 30% of Barkley's cost, even if you think Barkley is an incredible talent at the position, using a throwaway pick from said trade, and had the ammo to move forward in the next draft or two for a quarterback they do love from their spoils. They could have rebuilt their roster. Instead, they now have a really talented running back and a soft landing spot for Ryan Tannehill in two years.

Basically, Dave Gettleman is "old school," in the sense that he has no concept of value, analytics, positional scarcity, cap economics, etc, but he knows a good football player and he knows good football players are a good thing to have, the end, and screw the nerds who think about it more than that (he said as much.) Dave Gettleman, it should be noted, was fired two years ago from the Panthers.

He didn't do what you would have done, so he's an an idiot. Gotcha.

At the end of the day, what matters is winning football games. Period.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Ken Carson » Thu May 10, 2018 5:58 am

RBF, your posts really demonstrate a lack of understanding of the point MJW is trying to make. If you disagree with it, it might be helpful to all if you would refute it on its merits. You’re doing the equivalent of claiming 2+2=5 and then sticking your fingers in your ears when someone tries to explain the concept of addition.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Caradoc » Thu May 10, 2018 6:03 am

Poor kid, the soy has finally gotten to him. We told him that stuff would rot his brain, but did he listen?
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Buc2 » Thu May 10, 2018 8:22 am

real bucs fan wrote:
Patrick McIrish wrote:Daily double.... Dread comparing Aguayo to Vinatieri and Justin Tucker..... RBF wholeheartedly agrees, "fully on board". :lol: :lol:




Every post I had in this thread expressed reservations...

Aw. Aren't you special. You can be PMI's pet now.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Buc2 » Thu May 10, 2018 8:26 am

MJW wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:We'll see who has the better career, Barkley or Darnold, and we will revisit this.


It's been said like 8 times, but that isn't the point, at all. Like, you totally missed it.

What Barkley does is irrelevant. If I thought he was going to be LaDanian Tomlinson, the point would stand.

Likewise, he isn't "competing" against Sam Darnold, or Josh Allen, or Josh Rosen, to be the "better" football player.

They decided to draft a position where good talent is abundant, and where they're locked in with one of the most expensive contracts in the league before their pick plays a snap. The cost they paid was not only the opportunity to draft a position of dire need, where talent is literally the most valuable commodity in the league, but also the opportunity to gain a huge cap advantage going forward.

Even if you're of the mentality that Darnold, Allen, and Rosen are all complete and total ****, they could have sold the pick for an INCREDIBLE value to someone who doesn't feel that way. It's conceivable they could have added something along the lines of three first rounders plus, depending on how far they were willing to fall. They could have drafted a back who would have provided 80% of Barkley's production at 30% of Barkley's cost, even if you think Barkley is an incredible talent at the position, using a throwaway pick from said trade, and had the ammo to move forward in the next draft or two for a quarterback they do love from their spoils. They could have rebuilt their roster. Instead, they now have a really talented running back and a soft landing spot for Ryan Tannehill in two years.

Basically, Dave Gettleman is "old school," in the sense that he has no concept of value, analytics, positional scarcity, cap economics, etc, but he knows a good football player and he knows good football players are a good thing to have, the end, and screw the nerds who think about it more than that (he said as much.) Dave Gettleman, it should be noted, was fired two years ago from the Panthers.

I agree 100% with all you've said. You're analysis of Gettleman hits the mark as well, I think. Makes me wonder, though, if Coughlin were still the Giants coach if the Barkley pick would have happened. My guess is it wouldn't have.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Doctor » Sat May 12, 2018 8:04 pm

MJW wrote:
real bucs fan wrote:We'll see who has the better career, Barkley or Darnold, and we will revisit this.


It's been said like 8 times, but that isn't the point, at all. Like, you totally missed it.

What Barkley does is irrelevant. If I thought he was going to be LaDanian Tomlinson, the point would stand.

Likewise, he isn't "competing" against Sam Darnold, or Josh Allen, or Josh Rosen, to be the "better" football player.

They decided to draft a position where good talent is abundant, and where they're locked in with one of the most expensive contracts in the league before their pick plays a snap. The cost they paid was not only the opportunity to draft a position of dire need, where talent is literally the most valuable commodity in the league, but also the opportunity to gain a huge cap advantage going forward.

Even if you're of the mentality that Darnold, Allen, and Rosen are all complete and total ****, they could have sold the pick for an INCREDIBLE value to someone who doesn't feel that way. It's conceivable they could have added something along the lines of three first rounders plus, depending on how far they were willing to fall. They could have drafted a back who would have provided 80% of Barkley's production at 30% of Barkley's cost, even if you think Barkley is an incredible talent at the position, using a throwaway pick from said trade, and had the ammo to move forward in the next draft or two for a quarterback they do love from their spoils. They could have rebuilt their roster. Instead, they now have a really talented running back and a soft landing spot for Ryan Tannehill in two years.

Basically, Dave Gettleman is "old school," in the sense that he has no concept of value, analytics, positional scarcity, cap economics, etc, but he knows a good football player and he knows good football players are a good thing to have, the end, and screw the nerds who think about it more than that (he said as much.) Dave Gettleman, it should be noted, was fired two years ago from the Panthers.

Ugh, I hate perfect hindsight posts like these. "They could have drafted a back who would have provided 80% of Barkley's production at 30% of Barkley's cost", yeah okay. Because several other teams including ourselves haven't been looking for one for year. Just because some teams have found some gems in all sort of places doesn't mean they are everywhere and you can just put on you RB helmt, strap yourself into the RB cannon, and shoot yourself off to RB land where you can just get a RB that will be 80% of Barkley at 30% cost. Sure.

Also, the idea that failing with a QB is somehow better than landing on a RB. Wasting 5 years with the wrong QB is a huge set back and gets FO fired. Maybe they dodged a bullet not drafting Darnold who may have been the highest on their list. Who knows. Also, the economics of the position are very different. Many teams now are looking to build out everything else and then plug in a young competent QB for a cheap five year window. Steelers did it with Big Ben, Seahawks with Wilson, Eagles with Wentz. Giants set everything else up and take a QB later and that QB will have a top notch support structure to walk into. There will always be QBs, every year there's a new class, it wasn't like this is the last time the draft has QBs.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Nano » Sat May 12, 2018 8:17 pm

There will always be another QB class, but the chance that the Giants will be in the same position where they have the pick of just about ANY QB they could want(in one of the best QB prospect classes in decades) is pretty slim unless Eli retires and they completely suck. Unless they really sold on Webb and Lauletta
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby MJW » Sat May 19, 2018 2:27 am

Doctor wrote:
MJW wrote:
It's been said like 8 times, but that isn't the point, at all. Like, you totally missed it.

What Barkley does is irrelevant. If I thought he was going to be LaDanian Tomlinson, the point would stand.

Likewise, he isn't "competing" against Sam Darnold, or Josh Allen, or Josh Rosen, to be the "better" football player.

They decided to draft a position where good talent is abundant, and where they're locked in with one of the most expensive contracts in the league before their pick plays a snap. The cost they paid was not only the opportunity to draft a position of dire need, where talent is literally the most valuable commodity in the league, but also the opportunity to gain a huge cap advantage going forward.

Even if you're of the mentality that Darnold, Allen, and Rosen are all complete and total ****, they could have sold the pick for an INCREDIBLE value to someone who doesn't feel that way. It's conceivable they could have added something along the lines of three first rounders plus, depending on how far they were willing to fall. They could have drafted a back who would have provided 80% of Barkley's production at 30% of Barkley's cost, even if you think Barkley is an incredible talent at the position, using a throwaway pick from said trade, and had the ammo to move forward in the next draft or two for a quarterback they do love from their spoils. They could have rebuilt their roster. Instead, they now have a really talented running back and a soft landing spot for Ryan Tannehill in two years.

Basically, Dave Gettleman is "old school," in the sense that he has no concept of value, analytics, positional scarcity, cap economics, etc, but he knows a good football player and he knows good football players are a good thing to have, the end, and screw the nerds who think about it more than that (he said as much.) Dave Gettleman, it should be noted, was fired two years ago from the Panthers.

Ugh, I hate perfect hindsight posts like these. "They could have drafted a back who would have provided 80% of Barkley's production at 30% of Barkley's cost", yeah okay. Because several other teams including ourselves haven't been looking for one for year. Just because some teams have found some gems in all sort of places doesn't mean they are everywhere and you can just put on you RB helmt, strap yourself into the RB cannon, and shoot yourself off to RB land where you can just get a RB that will be 80% of Barkley at 30% cost. Sure.

Also, the idea that failing with a QB is somehow better than landing on a RB. Wasting 5 years with the wrong QB is a huge set back and gets FO fired. Maybe they dodged a bullet not drafting Darnold who may have been the highest on their list. Who knows. Also, the economics of the position are very different. Many teams now are looking to build out everything else and then plug in a young competent QB for a cheap five year window. Steelers did it with Big Ben, Seahawks with Wilson, Eagles with Wentz. Giants set everything else up and take a QB later and that QB will have a top notch support structure to walk into. There will always be QBs, every year there's a new class, it wasn't like this is the last time the draft has QBs.


Yeah, actually...you can. That's the thing. You might not hit one on your first cannon-shot. But you will sooner rather than later if you can block. We need one because we thought we HAD one and we held onto him for too long instead of firing that cannon. Very few teams find themselves perpetually in search of a good back, unless, of course, they don't have good run blocking in the first place. This would be why relatively few go in the first round (and for many years, none did) and they almost always go for "under" market value in free agency. They're too easy to find. And the teams that never seem to find one, like the Giants or the Seahawks, ALWAYS seem to have shitty run-blocking. Weird, right? How GOOD run blocking teams seem to always be stumbling over good backs but those teams don't? I wonder why.

BTW, unless you think Barkley is going to be absolutely incredible (which, maybe you do), 80% isn't a very high benchmark to match, even for a great running back. If Barkley accounts for 1,600 yards from scrimmage next year (a VERY generous estimation for an unproven rookie,) 80% of that would be about what Carlos Hyde, Jordan Howard, CJ Anderson, Frank Gore, and Alex Collins produced. Legends, all.

Next point - missing on a bad QB isn't a five year deal anymore. You'll still get your, "Just enough upside to get someone fired" types like Josh Freeman. But Christian Ponder? EJ Manuel? Blaine Gabbert? Two, three years at most. For a coach, that might be a death sentence. For a GM? It's unlikely. He'll get another shot. Unless, of course, he doesn't find himself in position to draft one, and has to hope Sam Bradford or Brock Osweiler can do enough what with that super running back (Spoiler Alert - they can't.)

As for your final point, it is incredibly stupid. You're making the argument that it's ACTUALLY really hard to find a good runner, but easier to find a good quarterback? You sure you want to die on that hill, because there's no argument to be made there. There are a half-dozen runners every year drafted after the first round who become excellent NFL backs. We average ONE such quarterback every other year, and that might be generous.

So, if you don't find yourself in a position to draft a QB high, your plan is either, "We don't need a great QB, we'll win other ways!," which is like trying to win a race without putting your car in 3rd gear (possible, I guess, but VERY hard) OR you're saying, "Maybe we'll win the lottery and one will just fall into our laps thanks to pixie magic! It happens with one QB every few years after all!"

They're both terrible ideas. This was an ignorant decision made by a GM who came up with the Parcells Giants and thinks that's still how the NFL works on the field, and that off the field, "analytics" is something the hippies came up with stoned.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby real bucs fan » Sat May 19, 2018 9:34 am

MJW wrote:
Doctor wrote:Ugh, I hate perfect hindsight posts like these. "They could have drafted a back who would have provided 80% of Barkley's production at 30% of Barkley's cost", yeah okay. Because several other teams including ourselves haven't been looking for one for year. Just because some teams have found some gems in all sort of places doesn't mean they are everywhere and you can just put on you RB helmt, strap yourself into the RB cannon, and shoot yourself off to RB land where you can just get a RB that will be 80% of Barkley at 30% cost. Sure.

Also, the idea that failing with a QB is somehow better than landing on a RB. Wasting 5 years with the wrong QB is a huge set back and gets FO fired. Maybe they dodged a bullet not drafting Darnold who may have been the highest on their list. Who knows. Also, the economics of the position are very different. Many teams now are looking to build out everything else and then plug in a young competent QB for a cheap five year window. Steelers did it with Big Ben, Seahawks with Wilson, Eagles with Wentz. Giants set everything else up and take a QB later and that QB will have a top notch support structure to walk into. There will always be QBs, every year there's a new class, it wasn't like this is the last time the draft has QBs.


Yeah, actually...you can. That's the thing. You might not hit one on your first cannon-shot. But you will sooner rather than later if you can block. We need one because we thought we HAD one and we held onto him for too long instead of firing that cannon. Very few teams find themselves perpetually in search of a good back, unless, of course, they don't have good run blocking in the first place. This would be why relatively few go in the first round (and for many years, none did) and they almost always go for "under" market value in free agency. They're too easy to find. And the teams that never seem to find one, like the Giants or the Seahawks, ALWAYS seem to have shitty run-blocking. Weird, right? How GOOD run blocking teams seem to always be stumbling over good backs but those teams don't? I wonder why.

BTW, unless you think Barkley is going to be absolutely incredible (which, maybe you do), 80% isn't a very high benchmark to match, even for a great running back. If Barkley accounts for 1,600 yards from scrimmage next year (a VERY generous estimation for an unproven rookie,) 80% of that would be about what Carlos Hyde, Jordan Howard, CJ Anderson, Frank Gore, and Alex Collins produced. Legends, all.

Next point - missing on a bad QB isn't a five year deal anymore. You'll still get your, "Just enough upside to get someone fired" types like Josh Freeman. But Christian Ponder? EJ Manuel? Blaine Gabbert? Two, three years at most. For a coach, that might be a death sentence. For a GM? It's unlikely. He'll get another shot. Unless, of course, he doesn't find himself in position to draft one, and has to hope Sam Bradford or Brock Osweiler can do enough what with that super running back (Spoiler Alert - they can't.)

As for your final point, it is incredibly stupid. You're making the argument that it's ACTUALLY really hard to find a good runner, but easier to find a good quarterback? You sure you want to die on that hill, because there's no argument to be made there. There are a half-dozen runners every year drafted after the first round who become excellent NFL backs. We average ONE such quarterback every other year, and that might be generous.

So, if you don't find yourself in a position to draft a QB high, your plan is either, "We don't need a great QB, we'll win other ways!," which is like trying to win a race without putting your car in 3rd gear (possible, I guess, but VERY hard) OR you're saying, "Maybe we'll win the lottery and one will just fall into our laps thanks to pixie magic! It happens with one QB every few years after all!"

They're both terrible ideas. This was an ignorant decision made by a GM who came up with the Parcells Giants and thinks that's still how the NFL works on the field, and that off the field, "analytics" is something the hippies came up with stoned.

After last years McNichols experiment, I propose another experiment:

Both these teams you mentioned drafted RBs in the first round. Let's see whether Barkley and Penny (barring injury) have successful seasons. If both disappoint, you win. If both look great, I win. If it's split, then it's inconclusive...
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby Doctor » Mon May 21, 2018 8:15 am

What? If you keep drafting the same position over and over again, sooner or later you'll hit? Wow, what an incredible insight.

I think they should have taken a QB. I am in agreement. But I don't think it's anywhere near the egregious situation you make it out to be. For fucks sake Nick Foles just won a superbowl- yes there are other ways to win. And if you weren't sold on any of the QBs but were on Barkley, okay, I get it, you take Barkley. Maybe next years class has a Carr or Wilson or Rudolph that you are sold on and that QB gets to walk into a system with a much improved supporting cast. Or maybe an Alex Smith or a Bradford. Chargers went after their QBotF AFTER they drafted LT. Sure bet they wished they had taken Michael Vick instead. Lions got their QB after they got their star weapon in Calvin Johnson. Are you going to tell me Marshawn Lynch wasn't a tremendous help to Wilson's development? If Wilson had the support structure he does now when he was drafted he'd be a dud.

The Saints showed us last year that a great RB can more than make up for an ageing QB. And betting on Eli in the playoffs got them two rings.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby acmillis » Mon May 21, 2018 9:28 am

Doctor wrote:What? If you keep drafting the same position over and over again, sooner or later you'll hit? Wow, what an incredible insight.

I think they should have taken a QB. I am in agreement. But I don't think it's anywhere near the egregious situation you make it out to be. For fucks sake Nick Foles just won a superbowl- yes there are other ways to win. And if you weren't sold on any of the QBs but were on Barkley, okay, I get it, you take Barkley. Maybe next years class has a Carr or Wilson or Rudolph that you are sold on and that QB gets to walk into a system with a much improved supporting cast. Or maybe an Alex Smith or a Bradford. Chargers went after their QBotF AFTER they drafted LT. Sure bet they wished they had taken Michael Vick instead. Lions got their QB after they got their star weapon in Calvin Johnson. Are you going to tell me Marshawn Lynch wasn't a tremendous help to Wilson's development? If Wilson had the support structure he does now when he was drafted he'd be a dud.

The Saints showed us last year that a great RB can more than make up for an ageing QB. And betting on Eli in the playoffs got them two rings.

You mean the "aging QB" who set the all-time single season completion percentage last year? Not a great example.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby MJW » Tue May 22, 2018 10:50 pm

real bucs fan wrote:
MJW wrote:
Yeah, actually...you can. That's the thing. You might not hit one on your first cannon-shot. But you will sooner rather than later if you can block. We need one because we thought we HAD one and we held onto him for too long instead of firing that cannon. Very few teams find themselves perpetually in search of a good back, unless, of course, they don't have good run blocking in the first place. This would be why relatively few go in the first round (and for many years, none did) and they almost always go for "under" market value in free agency. They're too easy to find. And the teams that never seem to find one, like the Giants or the Seahawks, ALWAYS seem to have shitty run-blocking. Weird, right? How GOOD run blocking teams seem to always be stumbling over good backs but those teams don't? I wonder why.

BTW, unless you think Barkley is going to be absolutely incredible (which, maybe you do), 80% isn't a very high benchmark to match, even for a great running back. If Barkley accounts for 1,600 yards from scrimmage next year (a VERY generous estimation for an unproven rookie,) 80% of that would be about what Carlos Hyde, Jordan Howard, CJ Anderson, Frank Gore, and Alex Collins produced. Legends, all.

Next point - missing on a bad QB isn't a five year deal anymore. You'll still get your, "Just enough upside to get someone fired" types like Josh Freeman. But Christian Ponder? EJ Manuel? Blaine Gabbert? Two, three years at most. For a coach, that might be a death sentence. For a GM? It's unlikely. He'll get another shot. Unless, of course, he doesn't find himself in position to draft one, and has to hope Sam Bradford or Brock Osweiler can do enough what with that super running back (Spoiler Alert - they can't.)

As for your final point, it is incredibly stupid. You're making the argument that it's ACTUALLY really hard to find a good runner, but easier to find a good quarterback? You sure you want to die on that hill, because there's no argument to be made there. There are a half-dozen runners every year drafted after the first round who become excellent NFL backs. We average ONE such quarterback every other year, and that might be generous.

So, if you don't find yourself in a position to draft a QB high, your plan is either, "We don't need a great QB, we'll win other ways!," which is like trying to win a race without putting your car in 3rd gear (possible, I guess, but VERY hard) OR you're saying, "Maybe we'll win the lottery and one will just fall into our laps thanks to pixie magic! It happens with one QB every few years after all!"

They're both terrible ideas. This was an ignorant decision made by a GM who came up with the Parcells Giants and thinks that's still how the NFL works on the field, and that off the field, "analytics" is something the hippies came up with stoned.

After last years McNichols experiment, I propose another experiment:

Both these teams you mentioned drafted RBs in the first round. Let's see whether Barkley and Penny (barring injury) have successful seasons. If both disappoint, you win. If both look great, I win. If it's split, then it's inconclusive...


You're still missing the point. The point isn't whether or not they have "successful" seasons, as you put it. The point is whether or not they outplay their considerable opportunity costs.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby MJW » Tue May 22, 2018 10:52 pm

Doctor wrote:What? If you keep drafting the same position over and over again, sooner or later you'll hit? Wow, what an incredible insight.

I think they should have taken a QB. I am in agreement. But I don't think it's anywhere near the egregious situation you make it out to be. For fucks sake Nick Foles just won a superbowl- yes there are other ways to win. And if you weren't sold on any of the QBs but were on Barkley, okay, I get it, you take Barkley. Maybe next years class has a Carr or Wilson or Rudolph that you are sold on and that QB gets to walk into a system with a much improved supporting cast. Or maybe an Alex Smith or a Bradford. Chargers went after their QBotF AFTER they drafted LT. Sure bet they wished they had taken Michael Vick instead. Lions got their QB after they got their star weapon in Calvin Johnson. Are you going to tell me Marshawn Lynch wasn't a tremendous help to Wilson's development? If Wilson had the support structure he does now when he was drafted he'd be a dud.

The Saints showed us last year that a great RB can more than make up for an ageing QB. And betting on Eli in the playoffs got them two rings.


The point is, you won't have to keep drafting the same position over and over before you find a good back. If you can run block, you'll find a good back quickly. They're everywhere. The teams that are constantly looking for one are the teams that can't block for the ones they have.

Nothing else you said has a point.
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Re: Welcome Roberto Aguayo...

Postby ImAWalkingCorpse » Tue May 22, 2018 11:08 pm

tjax03 wrote:Aguyo is a 96% fg kicker.

He is a first rounder in most drafts like sebass was.

Good move to address a dire need. Points left on the field cost us a playoff spot last year

Yikes...
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