Jameis Winston - HOF QB?

[DreadNaught]

You can’t use the excuse “our qb was bad because our defense was bad.” There are many qbs who have done great with horrible defenses like ours.

Name a QB in NFL history that has posted a winning record when he's had the following around him;

Bottom 3 scoring defense
Bottom 3 in YPA rushing
The worst FG% in the NFL

You claim there are "many" so go ahead an name just 1 please? If you can't then perhaps you are holding Winston a different standard than any other QB in the history of the NFL.

Focus more on making your own argument instead of telling others what they "can't" use in theirs, especially when you can't back up your claim.

Like I said before, if the Bucs can finish better than 20th in those 3 categories in 2019 we won't have a losing record. If someone would like to challenge me on that I'm game.

The idea that Jameis is losing us games by himself when this team is literally among the worst in the NFL at the things he has no control over (defense, kicking, rushing) while being atleast decent at what the QB does control (passing) is something I just don't understand.

Lets put a team around him and see what happens. It seems to work well for most other QBs and even in 2015 and 2016 when those areas were slightly better (but still far from great) this team won 6 and 9 games respectively, after coming off a 2 win season before he was drafted.

[uscbucsfan]

KC's defense ranked 31st last year, Chief. Worse than ours. How did Patrick Mahomes do?

Our defense gave up 40+ more points than they did. It's not apples to apples at all. People keep saying this, but you seem to be ignoring it.

KC also had a better coaching staff, offensive line, run game, and kicking game. They were better in EVERY facet...

[NavyBuc]

KC's defense ranked 31st last year, Chief. Worse than ours. How did Patrick Mahomes do?

Our defense gave up 40+ more points than they did. It's not apples to apples at all. People keep saying this, but you seem to be ignoring it.

KC also had a better coaching staff, offensive line, run game, and kicking game. They were better in EVERY facet...

It also goes both ways. KC's defense didn't give up so many points because their offense scored points and could stay on the field. When you have a strong offense, it also allows your defense to play one dimensional later in the game.

If you replaced our defense with KC's defense last year, do you think Jameis' or Mahomes' results would be any different?

[NavyBuc]

You can’t use the excuse “our qb was bad because our defense was bad.” There are many qbs who have done great with horrible defenses like ours.

Name a QB in NFL history that has posted a winning record when he's had the following around him;

Bottom 3 scoring defense
Bottom 3 in YPA rushing
The worst FG% in the NFL

You claim there are "many" so go ahead an name just 1 please? If you can't then perhaps you are holding Winston a different standard than any other QB in the history of the NFL.

Focus more on making your own argument instead of telling others what they "can't" use in theirs, especially when you can't back up your claim.

Like I said before, if the Bucs can finish better than 20th in those 3 categories in 2019 we won't have a losing record. If someone would like to challenge me on that I'm game.

The idea that Jameis is losing us games by himself when this team is literally among the worst in the NFL at the things he has no control over (defense, kicking, rushing) while being atleast decent at what the QB does control (passing) is something I just don't understand.

Lets put a team around him and see what happens. It seems to work well for most other QBs and even in 2015 and 2016 when those areas were slightly better (but still far from great) this team won 6 and 9 games respectively, after coming off a 2 win season before he was drafted.

The argument was that quarterbacks can't perform well when they have a bad defense.

[uscbucsfan]

Our defense gave up 40+ more points than they did. It's not apples to apples at all. People keep saying this, but you seem to be ignoring it.

KC also had a better coaching staff, offensive line, run game, and kicking game. They were better in EVERY facet...

It also goes both ways. KC's defense didn't give up so many points because their offense scored points and could stay on the field. When you have a strong offense, it also allows your defense to play one dimensional later in the game.

If you replaced our defense with KC's defense last year, do you think Jameis' or Mahomes' results would be any different?

You sound like you have no idea how football works, man.

I get the Jameis criticism, but you are really reaching with this Chiefs comparison.

Most football fans would say that the Chiefs have an exponentially more talented roster and they have a top 3 coaching staff compared to our bottom 3. Do I think the Chiefs would have been worse with our defense? Yes, but it's irrelevant. The point is that you are referencing them and not pointing out that their entire team is better than ours.

Football is a team game and coaches in Football have more impact than any other sport. When you have one of the worst teams around you and one of the worst coaching staffs, it will make you worse as well. That's not absolving Jameis of his own mistakes and shortcomings, but it exacerbates it. He's not Patrick Mahommes...no one in history has been what he was last year, but there's a real chance that he doesn't duplicate that this year. It's a stupid comparison.

[Snake]

Buccaneers turnover differential and records going back to 2006.

TWILIGHT OF GRUDEN ERA
2006: -12, 30th in league. 4-12.
2007: +15, 4th in league. 9-7.
2008: +4, 13th in league. 9-7.
GRUDEN FIRED, MUSH HIRED
2009: -5, 22nd in league. 3-13.
2010: +9, 8th in league. 10-6.
2011: -16, 32nd in league. 4-12.
MUSH FIRED, SCHIANO HIRED
2012: +3, 13th in league. 7-9.
2013: +10, 7th in league. 4-12.
SCHIANO FIRED, LOVIE HIRED
2014: -8, 27th in league. 2-14.
JAMEIS DRAFTED
2015: -5, 25th in league. 22nd in giveaways, 18th in takeaways. 6-10.
LOVIE FIRED, DIRK HIRED
2016: +2, 15th in league. 27th in giveaways, 3rd in takeaways. 9-7.
2017: -1, 18th in league. 27th in giveaways, 8th in takeaways. 5-11.
2018: -18, 31st in league. 32nd in giveaways, 26th in takeaways. 5-11.
KOETTER FIRED

There's definitely a correlation between turnover differential and record. Outliers happen, as evidenced by 2013, but it appears to ring true if you look at where the other teams place and their respective records.

How do things shape up when you factor in points allowed?

2006: -12 TD, 30th in league. 4-12. 20th in points allowed.
2007: +15 TD, 4th in league. 9-7. 3rd in points allowed.
2008: +4, 13th in league. 9-7. 10th in points allowed.
2009: -5, 22nd in league. 3-13. 27th in points allowed.
2010: +9, 8th in league. 10-6. 9th in points allowed.
2011: -16, 32nd in league. 4-12. 32nd in points allowed.
2012: +3, 13th in league. 7-9. 23rd in points allowed.
2013: +10, 7th in league. 4-12. 21st in points allowed.
2014: -8, 27th in league. 2-14. 25th in points allowed.
JAMEIS DRAFTED
2015: -5, 25th in league. 22nd in giveaways, 18th in takeaways. 6-10. 26th in points allowed.
2016: +2, 15th in league. 27th in giveaways, 3rd in takeaways. 9-7. 15th in points allowed.
2017: -1, 18th in league. 27th in giveaways, 8th in takeaways. 5-11. 22nd in points allowed.
2018: -18, 31st in league. 32nd in giveaways, 26th in takeaways. 5-11. 31st in points allowed.

So 2016. Jameis et all gave the ball away at a terrible rate, bottom 5. However, the defense was able to take the ball away 3rd best in the NFL and still managed to be average in terms of PA, 15th in league. That team ended up 9-7.

I’d like to see the relationship between a team’s giveaways and their defensive performance. Giveaways = more possessions, better field position (sometimes), and are generally demoralizing.

Half the battle is limiting turnovers on offense. Whatever the reason, Jameis has proven to be turnover prone his entire career when upper echelon QBs haven’t

[NavyBuc]

It also goes both ways. KC's defense didn't give up so many points because their offense scored points and could stay on the field. When you have a strong offense, it also allows your defense to play one dimensional later in the game.

If you replaced our defense with KC's defense last year, do you think Jameis' or Mahomes' results would be any different?

You sound like you have no idea how football works, man.

I get the Jameis criticism, but you are really reaching with this Chiefs comparison.

Most football fans would say that the Chiefs have an exponentially more talented roster and they have a top 3 coaching staff compared to our bottom 3. Do I think the Chiefs would have been worse with our defense? Yes, but it's irrelevant. The point is that you are referencing them and not pointing out that their entire team is better than ours.

Football is a team game and coaches in Football have more impact than any other sport. When you have one of the worst teams around you and one of the worst coaching staffs, it will make you worse as well. That's not absolving Jameis of his own mistakes and shortcomings, but it exacerbates it. He's not Patrick Mahommes...no one in history has been what he was last year, but there's a real chance that he doesn't duplicate that this year. It's a stupid comparison.

I know how football works. But when someone makes a stupid comment that “Bad defenses also have bad quarterbacks”, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize how dumb and stupid a comment that is. That’s all I’m saying. There were more problems to Jameis’ game last year than “just a bad defense.”

I think Jameis has a lot of flaws. Can he be fixed? I sure hope so and I’m hopeful Arians can do that. I agree that a lot of other factors contributed to a bad season, and bad qb play was one of them. Just watch that Bengals game and you will see Jameis has a lot of improving to do.

[uscbucsfan]

I don’t think Jameis is a talented qb.

Then you don't know what talent is.

Of course he's talented.

He was the number 1 pick and he has put up big numbers and absolutely amazing performances against both good and bad teams. You can't do that without an immense amount of talent.

My issue is that he's not consistent and I don't think he's intelligent, either. I've bitched since we drafted him about his ball placement and preventing our WRs from getting YAC, but he's super talented. So much to where it frustrates all of us when he looks like a HOF for a game or even a few games, then seemingly forgets how to play football. It's ****ing frustrating..

We all know;

-he's had bad coaches
-he's had a bad offense
-he's had a bad team/scheme for the team he has


The hope is that with these things fixed he can relax and be more consistent awesome Jameis and less consistently terrible, idiot Jameis.

I've said it before, but I care less about the turnovers (I care some, obviously) than I do his ball placement. You can win with a ton of turnovers as we've seen from Brees, Manning, Favre, etc....especially when you put up big volume offense. You can't win when you randomly can't hit **** outside the other team. His form just completely breaks down and it's infuriating...I get it.

[NavyBuc]

I don’t think Jameis is a talented qb.

Then you don't know what talent is.

Of course he's talented.

I edited my statement shortly after. He's talented, but flawed. That's the best way I can put it. But I think his flaws are the same flaws that he had at FSU that he's suffering through now. He's INCONSISTENT. And it's tough to make it in the NFL when you're inconsistent.

Look at FSU's stats his senior year. He started every game like crap, throwing INTs and posting bad numbers, but then came through and played like Joe Montana in the second half. The same thing happens here. He'll show glimpses of greatness, and then he'll look like Ryan Leaf. The problem is we need a quarterback that isn't just great some of the time....we need a quarterback who is great ALL OF THE TIME.

[uscbucsfan]

I think that's fair

[Snake]

Quarterback Tiers: 55 Coaches and Executives Rank the NFL Starters

https://theathletic.com/1082093/2019/07 ... -rankings/

Tier 1: Team Wins Because of Him

Aaron Rodgers

Tom Brady

Drew Brees

Patrick Mahomes

Andrew Luck

Philip Rivers

Ben Roethlisberger

Russell Wilson

Tier 2: Has a Hole or Two in his Game

Matt Ryan

Carson Wentz

Matthew Stafford

T-12. Deshaun Watson

T-12. Jared Goff

Baker Mayfield

Tier 3: Needs Strong Running Game and/or Defense to Win

Cam Newton

Kirk Cousins

Dak Prescott

Nick Foles

Jimmy Garoppolo

Derek Carr

Joe Flacco

T-22. Andy Dalton

T-22. Jameis Winston

Eli Manning

Mitchell Trubisky

Marcus Mariota

Sam Darnold

Tier 4: Unproven or Best Suited as Backup

Lamar Jackson

Josh Allen

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Case Keenum

Josh Rosen

[PrimeMinister]

Didn’t Brees go 7-9 twice with bad defenses and bad running game? That disagrees with your list.

[Snake]

Yes, and those 7 wins were because of him. In NO, a bad Brees year is a lot better than a good Jameis year.

[DreadNaught]

Name a QB in NFL history that has posted a winning record when he's had the following around him;

Bottom 3 scoring defense
Bottom 3 in YPA rushing
The worst FG% in the NFL

You claim there are "many" so go ahead an name just 1 please? If you can't then perhaps you are holding Winston a different standard than any other QB in the history of the NFL.

Focus more on making your own argument instead of telling others what they "can't" use in theirs, especially when you can't back up your claim.

Like I said before, if the Bucs can finish better than 20th in those 3 categories in 2019 we won't have a losing record. If someone would like to challenge me on that I'm game.

The idea that Jameis is losing us games by himself when this team is literally among the worst in the NFL at the things he has no control over (defense, kicking, rushing) while being atleast decent at what the QB does control (passing) is something I just don't understand.

Lets put a team around him and see what happens. It seems to work well for most other QBs and even in 2015 and 2016 when those areas were slightly better (but still far from great) this team won 6 and 9 games respectively, after coming off a 2 win season before he was drafted.

The argument was that quarterbacks can't perform well when they have a bad defense.

Whose?

If it was just the defense that would be one thing. But it's been more than that the past 2 seasons here in Tampa. Our FG% has been the worst which makes close games tough to win and we have run the ball among the worst in the NFL in terms of yards per attempt which leads to getting behind the chains/obvious passing situations.

I agree with the Jameis criticisms regarding turnovers, and knucklehead decisions at times. I'm not defending that. Instead I'm making the point that if the TEAM can be better in the facets of the game that have nothing to do with Winston's arm or decision making (defesne, kicking, rushing offense) then maybe, just maybe our QB can avoid situation where he has to throw on 2nd/3rd and long down multiple scores. Thus reducing the turnovers.

Wisnton needs to be better. Agree 100%. But so does everyone around him. When those commentary facets aren't performing like dogshit the Bucs won games with Winston at QB.

Heaven forbid we actually have a top 10 defense (can't remember that last time that's happened here) or a running game that is in the top half of the NFL in YPA (which Winston has only had his rookie season).

[PrimeMinister]

Yes, and those 7 wins were because of him. In NO, a bad Brees year is a lot better than a good Jameis year.

So wait...

“Team wins because of him” can mean the team only wins 7 games, but the HOF QB doesn't need a defense to win?

And “Needs a defense & running game to win” means the team wins...what?

Yep this list looks like bullshit.

When people refer to a winning team they’re referring to playoff teams. Breed fits in the “Needs defense/running game to win”. Don’t know what that means, but there you are.

[PrimeMinister]

This is getting stupid.

[DreadNaught]

Didn’t Brees go 7-9 twice with bad defenses and bad running game? That disagrees with your list.

From 2012 - 2016 the Saints only won 7 games 4 of those 5 season including 3 straight years. All while Drew Bress was passing from 4870-5300yds per year and making the pro bowl.

Looking at their YPA rushing in those years and it's better than anything the Bucs have done the past 2 seasons. Their kicker in those years were also measurably better than the Bucs FG kickers the past 2 seasons.

I'd say Peyton Manning back when that Colts season where they beat the Bears in the SB was the only team to overcome such a terrible scoring defense and inefficient rushing attack, but they still had a great kicker and even the defense and running game were not as bad as the Bucs have been these past 2 seasons. Obviously Winston is no Peyton Manning in his prime either

[PrimeMinister]

Didn’t Brees go 7-9 twice with bad defenses and bad running game? That disagrees with your list.

From 2012 - 2016 the Saints only won 7 games 4 of those 5 season including 3 straight years. All while Drew Bress was passing from 4870-5300yds per year and making the pro bowl.

Looking at their YPA rushing in those years and it's better than anything the Bucs have done the past 2 seasons. Their kicker in those years were also measurably better than the Bucs FG kickers the past 2 seasons.

I'd say Peyton Manning back when that Colts season where they beat the Bears in the SB was the only team to overcome such a terrible scoring defense and inefficient rushing attack, but they still had a great kicker and even the defense and running game were not as bad as the Bucs have been these past 2 seasons. Obviously Winston is no Peyton Manning in his prime either

Didn’t feel like looking it up. Thank you, DN.

So we can put Future 1st Ballot Hall of Famer Drew Brees solidly into the “Needs a Defense and Running Game to Win” category.

Sounds like Winston is in great company.

[DreadNaught]

Then you don't know what talent is.

Of course he's talented.

I edited my statement shortly after. He's talented, but flawed. That's the best way I can put it. But I think his flaws are the same flaws that he had at FSU that he's suffering through now. He's INCONSISTENT. And it's tough to make it in the NFL when you're inconsistent.

Look at FSU's stats his senior year. He started every game like crap, throwing INTs and posting bad numbers, but then came through and played like Joe Montana in the second half. The same thing happens here. He'll show glimpses of greatness, and then he'll look like Ryan Leaf. The problem is we need a quarterback that isn't just great some of the time....we need a quarterback who is great ALL OF THE TIME.

Jameis didn't play his Senior year, he didn't even play his Junior year since he went pro as a redshirt Sophmore.

I agree he's flawed which has made him inconsistent. But again, where we differ is when the supporting element of a football TEAM are pulling their weight and not performing like dogshit Jamies has proven he can win in the NFL and he definitely proved it in college.

We don't need a QB to great ALL OF THE TIME. That is an unrealistic expectation and if that is your standard you'll always be dissapointed. You need your QB to be great when the game is on the line. You need your team to solid in every facet so that the onus isn't on the QB to GREAT ALL OF THE TIME. It doesn't hurt to be really good on one of those other areas either obviously.

The years when the great QBs win championships or even just make it the AFCCG/NFCCG it's b/c the team around them is carrying their weight as well.

Dak Presscot isn't always great by any means. Imo Jamies is a far more talented QB. But what makes Dak a far better NFL QB to this point is that he takes care of the football and when it's time for him to be great late in close games he comes through. But what allows Dak to play conservative? Look at where the Cowboys scoring defense, and rushing attack rank and compare that to the Bucs.

Look at Aaron Rodgers. When the Packers have a good defense they make deep playoff runs and Rodgers is able to stay healthy. But when their defense is terrible Rodgers has to drop back much more and in more predictable passing situations which leads to hits and injuries (kinda what happened to Winston in 2017).

You can't expect a QB to be savior and BE GREAT ALL THE TIME if you don't support him. Goff and Wentz have excelled because too much wasn't demanded of them due to their defense and running games BOTH being among the very worst in the entire NFL, which has been the case the past 2 seasons in Tampa.

Lets actually be a TEAM around Jameis and see how many wins we get. Again, I'm not saying we have to be great on defense or running the ball, but is being competent/average really too much to ask? With our coaching staff, weapons at receiver/TE, and Jamies' ability to throw the ball our passing game will be plenty productive. Let's just be solid/average in the other areas and we'll see a dramatic shift.

[Snake]

Yes, and those 7 wins were because of him. In NO, a bad Brees year is a lot better than a good Jameis year.

So wait...

“Team wins because of him” can mean the team only wins 7 games, but the HOF QB doesn't need a defense to win?

And “Needs a defense & running game to win” means the team wins...what?

Yep this list looks like bullshit.

When people refer to a winning team they’re referring to playoff teams. Breed fits in the “Needs defense/running game to win”. Don’t know what that means, but there you are.

You’re being intentionally obtuse. You know what they mean.

[GrownishBF]

Yes, and those 7 wins were because of him. In NO, a bad Brees year is a lot better than a good Jameis year.

You're speaking as if 7 wins and a missed playoff year is something to brag about as long as you're better than Jameis. If Jameis put up Brees like numbers and we won 7 games I don't think you'd be singing the same tune.

[PrimeMinister]

So wait...

“Team wins because of him” can mean the team only wins 7 games, but the HOF QB doesn't need a defense to win?

And “Needs a defense & running game to win” means the team wins...what?

Yep this list looks like bullshit.

When people refer to a winning team they’re referring to playoff teams. Breed fits in the “Needs defense/running game to win”. Don’t know what that means, but there you are.

You’re being intentionally obtuse. You know what they mean.

Sure. They mean certain QBs don’t need good teams surrounding them and they’re wrong. That’s a fantasy. Great QB still need decent to good teams surrounding them to “win”. Drew Brees proves this better than any single statistic can.

[PrimeMinister]

Yes, and those 7 wins were because of him. In NO, a bad Brees year is a lot better than a good Jameis year.

You're speaking as if 7 wins and a missed playoff year is something to brag about as long as you're better than Jameis. If Jameis put up Brees like numbers and we won 7 games I don't think you'd be singing the same tune.

He wouldn’t. He would say “See we can’t win with him!”.

[GrownishBF]

You’re being intentionally obtuse. You know what they mean.

Sure. They mean certain QBs don’t need good teams surrounding them and they’re wrong. That’s a fantasy. Great QB still need decent to good teams surrounding them to “win”. Drew Brees proves this better than any single statistic can.

Exactly. If 7 wins is the max for a great QB with poor defense and run game that's not proving Snake's list to be very informative. Aaron Rodgers fits that bill as well. 6-9-1 this past year. Roethlisberger lost too without Bell.

[GrownishBF]

You're speaking as if 7 wins and a missed playoff year is something to brag about as long as you're better than Jameis. If Jameis put up Brees like numbers and we won 7 games I don't think you'd be singing the same tune.

He wouldn’t. He would say “See we can’t win with him!”.

I'm seeing now that an objective conversation about Winston with Snake isn't a realistic goal. That's fine. But don't try to hammer home a point that isn't there.

[PrimeMinister]

Sure. They mean certain QBs don’t need good teams surrounding them and they’re wrong. That’s a fantasy. Great QB still need decent to good teams surrounding them to “win”. Drew Brees proves this better than any single statistic can.

Exactly. If 7 wins is the max for a great QB with poor defense and run game that's not proving Snake's list to be very informative. Aaron Rodgers fits that bill as well. 6-9-1 this past year.

Once again: Winston is in great company.

Or the list is bullshit.

[GrownishBF]

This argument has a lot to do with turnovers. What's the number of acceptable turnovers for a good QB to have. It's not zero because every QB will turn the ball over. It's what opposing defenses are paid to do. So there's got to be a benchmark for acceptable turnovers for a 16 game season for a QB.

[DreadNaught]

Exactly. If 7 wins is the max for a great QB with poor defense and run game that's not proving Snake's list to be very informative. Aaron Rodgers fits that bill as well. 6-9-1 this past year.

Once again: Winston is in great company.

Or the list is bullshit.

The list is Bullshit. Not so much the order, but the certainly the categories/tiers are nonsense.

[GrownishBF]

Once again: Winston is in great company.

Or the list is bullshit.

The list is Bullshit. Not so much the order, but the certainly the categories/tiers are nonsense.

Tier 2 got a chuckle out of me. "Has a hole or 2 in his game". Most of the QBs in tier 1 have holes in their game.

[PrimeMinister]

Once again: Winston is in great company.

Or the list is bullshit.

The list is Bullshit. Not so much the order, but the certainly the categories/tiers are nonsense.

You and I both know this. So does Snake because he generally has solid informed football takes. He is allowing his dislike for Winston to color his view here.