***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby Crocaneers » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:15 pm

Seriously



Choi.to.the.world! [i don't take credit, it was on FB, none the less]
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby Nano » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:46 pm

Rays have reached their win total from last year at 80 wins. They are 15 games over .500(80-65). Blake Snell is 19-5

We're probably not going to reach the postseason(We're like 10 games behind lol), but damn...Cash should still be in consideration for Manager of the Year. He does a good job of scrapping wins together with not a lot of resources. 80-82 last year was surprising. To consider us a possible near 90 win team when the season began...unfathomable.
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby Alpha » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:56 am

It's sick to think that the Rays could win 90 games (or more) this year and not even come close to getting (even) a Wild Card bid.

Blake Snell is the best pitcher in the AL. That's just a fact. Sale fades every year...and he's been injured. Snell isn't going to win it...but he should.

His performance today was just sick. The Injuns...who have some GREAT hitters...were punked. Thy were just flat-out guessing. And guessing wrong.
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby Teitan » Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:38 am

How many starts does he have left? If he’s over 20 wins and still dealing like this.. it has to go to him.
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby acmillis » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:54 am

Alpha wrote:It's sick to think that the Rays could win 90 games (or more) this year and not even come close to getting (even) a Wild Card bid.

Blake Snell is the best pitcher in the AL. That's just a fact. Sale fades every year...and he's been injured. Snell isn't going to win it...but he should.

His performance today was just sick. The Injuns...who have some GREAT hitters...were punked. Thy were just flat-out guessing. And guessing wrong.

What makes you say this?

When David Price won it he was 20-5, 2.56 ERA, 205 Ks, WHIP of 1.1.


Blake Snell this year is 19-5, 2.03 ERA, 195 Ks, WHIP of 0.98.

If Snell has three more starts it is highly likely he at least gets to 20 wins. Even if he gives up a ton of runs, his ERA won't get to Price's from his Cy Young year.
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby Bootz2004 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:10 am

Those definitely look like Cy Young winning stats.
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby NYBF » Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:26 am

LOL at thinking wins are a useful stat.
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby acmillis » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:50 am

NYBF wrote:LOL at thinking wins are a useful stat.

Every year since 2011 the AL Cy Young winner has led the league in Ws....
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby Bootz2004 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:04 am

acmillis wrote:
NYBF wrote:LOL at thinking wins are a useful stat.

Every year since 2011 the AL Cy Young winner has led the league in Ws....


Sale also has significantly fewer innings pitched than Snell, although Sale has a ton more strikeouts. All of those things, wins included, are useful in deciding a Cy Young winner.
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby DreadNaught » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:11 am

WHIP and ERA are by far the two most important stats in determining the effectiveness of a pitcher.

Wins are predicated on how your offense does when you pitch. Imo it's a pretty meaningless stat.

Give me the guys with the better WHIP/ERA and in a 7 game series my squad would win every time b/c good pitching ALWAYS beats good hitting.
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby Bootz2004 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:22 am

DreadNaught wrote:WHIP and ERA are by far the two most important stats in determining the effectiveness of a pitcher.

Wins are predicated on how your offense does when you pitch. Imo it's a pretty meaningless stat.

Give me the guys with the better WHIP/ERA and in a 7 game series my squad would win every time b/c good pitching ALWAYS beats good hitting.


But is that the formula MLB uses in determining the Cy Young winner?
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby DreadNaught » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:48 am

Bootz2004 wrote:
DreadNaught wrote:WHIP and ERA are by far the two most important stats in determining the effectiveness of a pitcher.

Wins are predicated on how your offense does when you pitch. Imo it's a pretty meaningless stat.

Give me the guys with the better WHIP/ERA and in a 7 game series my squad would win every time b/c good pitching ALWAYS beats good hitting.


But is that the formula MLB uses in determining the Cy Young winner?


MLB doesn't determine the Cy Young winner, the BBWA do based on a tiered/ranked vote similar to how the NFL MVP, OPOY, DPOY are voted on by the AP writers.

It's subjective thus no formula. Some writers will weigh 'wins' differently than others. I will say that WHIP and ERA are weighed more heavily these days then they used to be, rightfully so imo.

My point was that 'wins' are reliant on run support to a large degree.

I remember a few years back that Mariners pitcher Feliz Hernandez won the Cy Young with a 13-12 W/L record. But he was tops in ERA and WHIP and just lost alot of very low scoring games because the Mariners had an inept offense, especially on days he pitched. This is an extreme example compared to Snell vs Price, but supports the point that record shouldn't be a variable weighted heavily in determining how effective a pitcher is (or isn't).
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby acmillis » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:21 pm

DreadNaught wrote:WHIP and ERA are by far the two most important stats in determining the effectiveness of a pitcher.

Wins are predicated on how your offense does when you pitch. Imo it's a pretty meaningless stat.

Give me the guys with the better WHIP/ERA and in a 7 game series my squad would win every time b/c good pitching ALWAYS beats good hitting.

I agree, but to play Devil's Advocate, I'd also argue that if you're a Cy Young winner, sometimes 1-2 run support/game is all you should need.
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby Teitan » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:44 pm

acmillis wrote:
DreadNaught wrote:WHIP and ERA are by far the two most important stats in determining the effectiveness of a pitcher.

Wins are predicated on how your offense does when you pitch. Imo it's a pretty meaningless stat.

Give me the guys with the better WHIP/ERA and in a 7 game series my squad would win every time b/c good pitching ALWAYS beats good hitting.

I agree, but to play Devil's Advocate, I'd also argue that if you're a Cy Young winner, sometimes 1-2 run support/game is all you should need.


Exactly. If you win a 1-0 game, that’s still a testament to the work the pitcher put in.
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby Bootz2004 » Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:36 pm

Umm it's too late for the Rays to clinch one of these wild card spots.....right??
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby Swashy » Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:15 pm

Snell gets his 20th. What a beast. What a season. He's gotta win the Cy Young after tonight. I know there's a few games left but I have to imagine he's leading to the finish line by better than a nose
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby Alpha » Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:44 am

Bootz2004 wrote:Umm it's too late for the Rays to clinch one of these wild card spots.....right??


The Baby Rays are gonna win 90 (or more) games this year...and not even sniff a playoff spot. They might not be within 5 games of a spot. With 90-95 wins.

That's absurd.
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby Alpha » Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:51 am

Swashy wrote:Snell gets his 20th. What a beast. What a season. He's gotta win the Cy Young after tonight. I know there's a few games left but I have to imagine he's leading to the finish line by better than a nose


He's got 2 starts left (I believe).

Right now...it's either him or Sale...and based on performance TO DATE, It's gotta be Snell.

His last 2 starts could seal the deal.

He isn't going deep but even when he goes 5-6, he's shutting the other team down...ONE hit tonight.

It's kinda scary how good he is. Even when Price was gunning for (or winning) Cy Youngs...he wasn't this dominant. Snell is damn near un-hittable and has been for a long time now. Hitters are just dead guessing against him. Unfortunately for them, when you have 4 PLUS pitches to choose from, it's just not fair.

And Texas actually did a good job tonight. Fouling off a lot of balls and making him go 3-2 often and throw a LOT of pitches. They did about as good a job as you can do against him...and they managed ONE hit. Snell didn't have his best game and he still managed...this.

****ing sick.
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby Bootz2004 » Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:55 am

Alpha wrote:
Bootz2004 wrote:Umm it's too late for the Rays to clinch one of these wild card spots.....right??


The Baby Rays are gonna win 90 (or more) games this year...and not even sniff a playoff spot. They might not be within 5 games of a spot. With 90-95 wins.

That's absurd.


Well currently they are 5.5 games behind Oakland...
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby DreadNaught » Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:55 am

Teitan wrote:
acmillis wrote:I agree, but to play Devil's Advocate, I'd also argue that if you're a Cy Young winner, sometimes 1-2 run support/game is all you should need.


Exactly. If you win a 1-0 game, that’s still a testament to the work the pitcher put in.


But should losing pitcher be penalized for giving up 1 run? What if that run was unearned?

I look more at things like 'quality start %' which iirc is 6+ innings with 3 earned runs or less. If my starting pitcher is doing that every time out and is among the leaders in WHIP and ERA as well I don't think their W/L record really matters tbh.

Just saying that W/L takes alot of variables into account that are beyond the control of the starting pitcher and not always an indicator of performance.
Last edited by DreadNaught on Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby NYBF » Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:07 am

acmillis wrote:
DreadNaught wrote:WHIP and ERA are by far the two most important stats in determining the effectiveness of a pitcher.

Wins are predicated on how your offense does when you pitch. Imo it's a pretty meaningless stat.

Give me the guys with the better WHIP/ERA and in a 7 game series my squad would win every time b/c good pitching ALWAYS beats good hitting.

I agree, but to play Devil's Advocate, I'd also argue that if you're a Cy Young winner, sometimes 1-2 run support/game is all you should need.


Last Cy Young winner to have a sub 1.00 ERA?
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby DreadNaught » Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:28 am

Here are three different pitchers from 1990. A & B were teammates, one was the Cy Young award winner, the other started game 1 of both the ALCS and World Series instead of his teammate that won the CY.

C was the guy that should've won the CY imo. But this was before advanced stats were weighed like they are now.

Pitcher A had a great season, but he wasn't the best pitcher on his own team much less the AL.


Pitcher A
W/L: 27-6 (1st)
ERA: 2.95 (6th)
WHIP: 1.223 (9th)
Complete games: 2 (N/A)
Shutouts: 2 (T-6th)

Pitcher B
W/L: 22-11 (2nd)
ERA: 2.56 (3rd)
WHIP: 1.157 (5th)
Complete games: 11 (1st)
Shutouts: 4 (T-1st)

Pitcher C
W/L: 21-6 (3rd)
ERA: 1.93 (1st)
WHIP: 1.082 (2nd)
Complete games: 7 (T-3rd)
Shutouts: 4 (T-1st)
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby Buc2 » Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:40 am

DreadNaught wrote:Here are three different pitchers from 1990. A & B were teammates, one was the Cy Young award winner, the other started game 1 of both the ALCS and World Series instead of his teammate that won the CY.

C was the guy that should've won the CY imo. But this was before advanced stats were weighed like they are now.

Pitcher A had a great season, but he wasn't the best pitcher on his own team much less the AL.


Pitcher A
W/L: 27-6 (1st)
ERA: 2.95 (6th)
WHIP: 1.223 (9th)
Complete games: 2 (N/A)
Shutouts: 2 (T-6th)

Pitcher B
W/L: 22-11 (2nd)
ERA: 2.56 (3rd)
WHIP: 1.157 (5th)
Complete games: 11 (1st)
Shutouts: 4 (T-1st)

Pitcher C
W/L: 21-6 (3rd)
ERA: 1.93 (1st)
WHIP: 1.082 (2nd)
Complete games: 7 (T-3rd)
Shutouts: 4 (T-1st)

So if the season ended today, who should be the winner based on these metrics?
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby NYBF » Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:02 pm

Based on just what's there, C.

Cross out the first line, I could not possibly care less about W-L.

Shutouts and complete games are nice, but those wouldn't really factor into my decision.
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby acmillis » Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:09 pm

DreadNaught wrote:
Teitan wrote:
Exactly. If you win a 1-0 game, that’s still a testament to the work the pitcher put in.


But should losing pitcher be penalized for giving up 1 run? What if that run was unearned?

I look more at things like 'quality start %' which iirc is 6+ innings with 3 earned runs or less. If my starting pitcher is doing that every time out and is among the leaders in WHIP and ERA as well I don't think their W/L record really matters tbh.

Just saying that W/L takes alot of variables into account that are beyond the control of the starting pitcher and not always an indicator of performance.

I believe you're right on the definition of a quality start...but a 4.5 ERA ain't quality to me. Most teams with pitchers with ERAs over 4.5 are looking to move him to the 'pen.
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby Zarniwoop » Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:23 pm

DreadNaught wrote:Here are three different pitchers from 1990. A & B were teammates, one was the Cy Young award winner, the other started game 1 of both the ALCS and World Series instead of his teammate that won the CY.

C was the guy that should've won the CY imo. But this was before advanced stats were weighed like they are now.

Pitcher A had a great season, but he wasn't the best pitcher on his own team much less the AL.


Pitcher A
W/L: 27-6 (1st)
ERA: 2.95 (6th)
WHIP: 1.223 (9th)
Complete games: 2 (N/A)
Shutouts: 2 (T-6th)

Pitcher B
W/L: 22-11 (2nd)
ERA: 2.56 (3rd)
WHIP: 1.157 (5th)
Complete games: 11 (1st)
Shutouts: 4 (T-1st)

Pitcher C
W/L: 21-6 (3rd)
ERA: 1.93 (1st)
WHIP: 1.082 (2nd)
Complete games: 7 (T-3rd)
Shutouts: 4 (T-1st)



That first one is Bob Welch isn’t it? He was one of my favorite pitchers
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby DreadNaught » Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:24 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:
DreadNaught wrote:Here are three different pitchers from 1990. A & B were teammates, one was the Cy Young award winner, the other started game 1 of both the ALCS and World Series instead of his teammate that won the CY.

C was the guy that should've won the CY imo. But this was before advanced stats were weighed like they are now.

Pitcher A had a great season, but he wasn't the best pitcher on his own team much less the AL.


Pitcher A
W/L: 27-6 (1st)
ERA: 2.95 (6th)
WHIP: 1.223 (9th)
Complete games: 2 (N/A)
Shutouts: 2 (T-6th)

Pitcher B
W/L: 22-11 (2nd)
ERA: 2.56 (3rd)
WHIP: 1.157 (5th)
Complete games: 11 (1st)
Shutouts: 4 (T-1st)

Pitcher C
W/L: 21-6 (3rd)
ERA: 1.93 (1st)
WHIP: 1.082 (2nd)
Complete games: 7 (T-3rd)
Shutouts: 4 (T-1st)



That first one is Bob Welch isn’t it? He was one of my favorite pitchers


Yup

A - Welch
B - Dave Stewart
C - Roger Clemens
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby DreadNaught » Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:28 pm

NYBF wrote:Based on just what's there, C.

Cross out the first line, I could not possibly care less about W-L.

Shutouts and complete games are nice, but those wouldn't really factor into my decision.


Yup, but back then they did matter some. But these days complete games are extremely rare. They take pitchers out who are throwing no-hitters once they reach 100 pitches.

Hitters were more aggressive back then also, these days with hitters see alot more pitches per at-bat on average. One of the reasons strikeouts are way up I assume.
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby Zarniwoop » Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:31 pm

DreadNaught wrote:
Zarniwoop wrote:

That first one is Bob Welch isn’t it? He was one of my favorite pitchers


Yup

A - Welch
B - Dave Stewart
C - Roger Clemens



That’s what I thought, he signed a hat for me and wrote 27-6 on it
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Re: ***OFFICIAL 2018 Tampa Bay Rays MLB Season Thread!***

Postby NYBF » Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:51 pm

DreadNaught wrote:
NYBF wrote:Based on just what's there, C.

Cross out the first line, I could not possibly care less about W-L.

Shutouts and complete games are nice, but those wouldn't really factor into my decision.


Yup, but back then they did matter some. But these days complete games are extremely rare. They take pitchers out who are throwing no-hitters once they reach 100 pitches.

Hitters were more aggressive back then also, these days with hitters see alot more pitches per at-bat on average. One of the reasons strikeouts are way up I assume.


Yeah, that's why I don't really think about them much. It was almost common back then, especially talking about pitchers of this caliber. But I wouldn't penalize A because he only had 2.
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